OSFM 2015 Prospect Ratings

[1andonly]

I would first like to say that everyone at OS did a great job on the prospects in 2014. I had one major beef with it though. Based on professional scouting reports, Baseball Prospectus, and Baseball America, most of the prospects were grossly overrated. I would sim 5 years into the future only to find every team's 5th starter was around a 85-88 overall. On top of that nearly almost every prospect succeeded and became a star.

Over 20 simulations of a 5 year span had the top 100 prospects succeeding at a much higher than normal rate compared to that of real life.

Over the 5 years, on average, 82 of the top 100 prospects grew in potential. With an already inflated potential, they all soon became insane. There was always over 15 players with 99 potential.

The problem is, if you give a player 90 potential and he is in AA, after one year he will grow fast, regardless of if he plays poor or not. He will progress so fast that he will stay in the minor leagues but be so advanced that he dominates further increasing his potential and creating a snowball effect.

I would like to know what the OSFM roster community thought about the idea of creating a set of standards based on the top professional baseball scouts to help limit this. It would be nice after 5 years for 90+ overall to still be elite instead of 85-88 being an average starter.

[teeds]

Quote: Originally Posted by 1andonly

I would first like to say that everyone at OS did a great job on the prospects in 2014. I had one major beef with it though. Based on professional scouting reports, Baseball Prospectus, and Baseball America, most of the prospects were grossly overrated. I would sim 5 years into the future only to find every team's 5th starter was around a 85-88 overall. On top of that nearly almost every prospect succeeded and became a star. Over 20 simulations of a 5 year span had the top 100 prospects succeeding at a much higher than normal rate compared to that of real life. Over the 5 years, on average, 82 of the top 100 prospects grew in potential. With an already inflated potential, they all soon became insane. There was always over 15 players with 99 potential. The problem is, if you give a player 90 potential and he is in AA, after one year he will grow fast, regardless of if he plays poor or not. He will progress so fast that he will stay in the minor leagues but be so advanced that he dominates further increasing his potential and creating a snowball effect. I would like to know what the OSFM roster community thought about the idea of creating a set of standards based on the top professional baseball scouts to help limit this. It would be nice after 5 years for 90+ overall to still be elite instead of 85-88 being an average starter.

If you read around the OSFM thread you'll see that this has already been mentioned and there is an effort being made to bring more uniformity to the prospect ratings. There's even a big 'ol spreadsheet to view and share your opinion on ratings.

[sxaalex]

Quote: Originally Posted by teeds

If you read around the OSFM thread you'll see that this has already been mentioned and there is an effort being made to bring more uniformity to the prospect ratings. There's even a big 'ol spreadsheet to view and share your opinion on ratings.

I think you need to check in teams like A's,Marlins,Giants and white sox on prospect rating and potential.Im not sure if others are grasp with what was mention in the hybrid thread.I recall ridin mention he would check on every team prospect rating and potential before the actually osfm release.

[teeds]

Quote: Originally Posted by sxaalex

I think you need to check in teams like A's,Marlins,Giants and white sox on prospect rating and potential.Im not sure if others are grasp with what was mention in the hybrid thread.I recall ridin mention he would check on every team prospect rating and potential before the actually osfm release.

I cannot stress this enough - all the information is laid out for you to view on the spreadsheet. EVERY team will be looked over and many already have. If you want input, look at the spreadsheet and post your thoughts. This is supposed to be a community project. We can't have fly-by "check this, check that." Check who and why? The comments need to be more specific.

[1andonly]

Quote: Originally Posted by teeds

If you read around the OSFM thread you'll see that this has already been mentioned and there is an effort being made to bring more uniformity to the prospect ratings. There's even a big 'ol spreadsheet to view and share your opinion on ratings.

Where exactly is the spreadsheet? In the 2015 recruiting thread?

[Willard76]

Quote: Originally Posted by 1andonly

Where exactly is the spreadsheet? In the 2015 recruiting thread?

Yes. It is posted several times as well as the second post of the Hybrid thread

[WaitTilNextYear]

Quote: Originally Posted by Willard76

Yes. It is posted several times as well as the second post of the Hybrid thread

And here it is again:

https://docs.google.com/a/mail.buffa...it?pli=1#gid=0

Tell us what you think..if people make good points, they certainly could be incorporated into the roster.

[dbacks6]

Okay this is probably a stupid question, but is that spreadsheet what all the players will be rated in the first 2015 hybrid roster? or is that what they ended 2014 at?