Minnesota Shakes | A Tale of Twin Cities (MLB14)

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Minnesota Shakes | A Tale of Twin Cities

Specs: MLB 14 The Show, PS4
Rosters: OSFM 2014 Hybrid V2.1a
Sliders: Custom
Style: Zone / Meter / Auto
Sim/Play: Play all
Quick Counts: Off
30-Team Control: Yes
Trades: Fair + realistic
Backstory: None

Why Minnesota?
The Twins check all the boxes of what makes for an interesting project. A so so MLB roster with great talent on the farm. A team with a nice stadium and a good array of uniforms. A team that hasn't won it all in nearly 25 years. A team that's not already actively being chised about on OS. A franchise player in Joe Mauer. Plenty of potential deals to be made. Also, as a Midwesterner and Cubs fan myself, it's always nice to chise with a team in the heartland. If I had to pick an AL favorite team, the Twins would definitely be in the running along with Oakland and Detroit. I'd always wanted to do a chise with the Twins, but the fugly Metrodome held me back. Well, here goes nothing..

[WaitTilNextYear]

2013 Year in Review
It was the worst of times.

It was a forgettable 2013 on the major league front for the Minnesota Twins organization. The Twins came close to losing 100 games for a 3rd straight season and if not for the Astros, Marlins, and Cubs amply filling all the “rebuilding” headlines, the Twins would’ve had more bad publicity than they did. As it was, the Twins were 66-96 with an MLB worst 5.26 ERA from their starting pitching. The Twins starters were no better in 2012 with a gaudy 5.40 ERA and this problem has been ongoing with Minnesota’s reluctance to pay FA starting pitchers over the years.

With an already horrid starting pitching staff, the Twins woes were compounded by an offense that could not score (13th in the AL in runs) and a defense that could not make the pitchers look better, but actually made them worse. The numbers are best exemplified by a bottom 5 team defense ranking from Fangraphs. Trevor Plouffe and Pedro Florimon’s 31 combined errors on the left side to go along with pitiful UZR numbers turned ground balls into base hits and runs.

It was also a sad season from the standpoint of the M&M Boys, Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau were split up and Morneau sent to the Pirates. With Morneau opening the season in 2014 with the Rockies, the Twins have only one M Boy left, and not really a boy as Mauer’s 30 year old age, with plenty of concussions, and 6’5” stature would indicate.

It was the best of times.

The bullpen was the main positive in 2013 and 7 out of 8 of Minnesota’s most used relievers (save for Josh Roenicke, now with the Nationals organization) posted ERA+ above league average. Glen Perkins emerged as a top 5 reliever in baseball and breakout candidates Caleb Thielbar and Michael Tonkin surfaced in the big leagues for the first time. Toss in a trio of effective and likely to be traded vets, Jared Burton, Brian Duensing, and Casey Fien and the Twins easily had a top 10 bullpen.

The major plus, even moreso than the bullpen, is the continued ascent of the Minnesota MiLB system. The Twins were ranked as the #1 system overall by several prospect evaluating services at the close of 2013, bolstered by the pick of Kohl Stewart and the progress of Buxton and Sano. Minnesota’s system is only rivaled for top-end talent and depth by Pittsburgh, Boston, and Houston. #1 overall prospect Byron Buxton and Co. all made strides in 2013 bringing excitement that much closer to Target Field and the Twin Cities.

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Key Offseason Moves
The Twins had never spent more than $21MM on a free agent contract until this past offeason. Minnesota inked Ricky Nolasco to a 4 year deal and Phil Hughes to a 3 year deal, which represent the two richest FA contracts in team history. In reality, it only adds a pair of mid-rotation starters to the mix, but it’s a massive upgrade on the 2013 dumpster fire of a rotation including Scott Diamond, Liam Hendriks, and Pedro Hernandez.

The Twins are moving franchise icon Joe Mauer from out behind the plate after a protracted concussion scare last season. Mauer will replace the departed Morneau at 1B and will provide above average defense and elite hitting at the position, albeit with below average power for a corner IF spot. The move should help keep a healthy Mauer on the field and cause an uptick in his games played. The Twinkies will play journeyman and not-so-flyin-Hawai'ian Kurt Suzuki along with prospect up-and-comer Josmil Pinto in Mauer’s old spot behind the dish. Pinto slashed a promising .342/.398/.566 in his call-up last year and could wind up starting by season’s end if Suzuki is dealt.

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#1 | OF | 20 y/o | Byron Buxton
As the #1 overall prospect in baseball as well as in the Twins system, the sky’s the limit. Lazy comparisons have been made to Mike Trout, but they are not the same player. Buxton probably won’t hit 30+ HRs. Buxton has tools to become a better defender than Trout. But, like Trout, Buxton has very advanced plated discipline, will work a walk, and projects to clear .300 on a regular basis. Needs to gain experience.
ETA: May 2015

#2 | 3B | 20 y/o | Miguel Sano
The Dominican native suffered an unfortunate setback needing offseason Tommy John surgery, but even with that, Sano is holding strong on most prospect Top 10 lists. Sano, along with Kris Bryant and Joey Gallo, has the most raw power of any current minor leaguer and he projects to flirt with 40 HRs per season. Sano may not find an eventual home at 3B despite a cannon throwing arm, but as a DH, LF, or even 1B, his bat will be worth it. Needs to improve plate discipline.
ETA: September 2015

#3 | RHP | 24 y/o | Alex Meyer
Meyer is a more advanced prospect than Buxton or Sano—he’s 24. When he makes his debut this season, Meyer should finally give the Twins a SP that brings heat and can strike people out. The 6’9” righty has incredible downward plane of his heater and can reach back for 98–99 mph up at the letters. Meyer also brings an Uncle Charlie that ranks best in the Twins system to go with his major league-ready fastball. If this gargantuan righty can keep his mechanics clean and repeatable, he can be a solid #2 starter.
ETA: June 2014

#4 | RHP | 19 y/o | Kohl Stewart
The 4th overall selection in the 2013 MLB draft, Stewart was able to back his blue chip status up with an outstanding 20 inning cameo in rookie ball. Stewart posted a 10.8 K/9 to go with a stingy 1.8 BB/9 and 1.70 FIP. The 6’3” Stewart is a 4-pitch pitcher and with a couple of years of refinement, he projects anywhere from #1–#3 starter.
ETA: 2017

#5 | 2B/OF | 22 y/o | Eddie Rosario
The main thing holding Rosario back is not playing due to making questionable decisions. When playing, Rosario has shown an aggressive hitting-style with excellent bat speed. Split between A+ and AA ball last season, Rosario slashed .293/.338/.434 with a .349 wOBA. A useful bat, but Rosario will have to work at his defense to stick at the keystone where his bat profiles best.
ETA: September 2015

#6 | RHP | 19 y/o | Jose “J.O.” Berrios
Berrios projects as a mid-rotation starter, but still has a lot of time to grow. As a 19-year-old, the Puerto Rican native put up respectable numbers in A Ball. Berrios’ 8.68 K/9 is a result of a mid-90s fastball with movement as well as his developing curveball and changeup. While Berrios needs to work on his command, control (3.47 BB/9), and keeping the ball down to be less homer-prone, he gives the Twins another exciting SP prospect.
ETA: April 2016

#7 | OF | 21 y/o | Max Kepler
A rare MLB prospect that hails from Europe, German-born Max Kepler has plenty of tools despite a down 2013 season. Kepler is a very good athlete with a lithe 6’4” frame with room to add power. With his good range, Kepler projects as an OF, but some see him eventually moving to 1B due to a middling throwing arm. Kepler has yet to put it all together, but could be a nice league-average regular with multi-position ability and a sweet lefty swing down the road.
ETA: September 2015

#8 | MI | 20 y/o | Jorge Polanco
Polanco would make a great Twin and might cause a revival of the “Little Piranhas” moniker popularized by Ozzie Guillen. Polanco hit .326 in the Dominican Winter League after his first taste of full season ball in 2013. Polanco projects to be a tough out with good OBP, willingness to work counts, and ability to not strike out. Though not a speedster and barely with doubles power, Polanco could potentially handle both MI positions while eeking out a .300/.365/.720 slash line as a switch-hitter.
ETA: September 2015

#9 | SS | 23 y/o | Danny Santana
Santana has the luxury of having the same last name as Twins legend Johan Santana, but he brings his own resume as well. Danny Santana is a switch-hitter that makes copious contact and can steal a base. Santana is likely capped at 8-10 HRs per season, but the main thing he has to improve is plate discipline. Santana struck out 94 times in 587 plate appearances in AA. Despite this, a strong showing in Dominican Winter Ball and spring training has leapfrogged Santana over Eduardo Escobar on the MLB depth chart. Santana will start the season at the UTIL position and stands only a protracted Pedro Florimon slump away from being the everyday shortstop.
ETA: April 2014

#10 | LHP | 18 y/o | Lewis Thorpe
Thorpe is an LHP that was born down under. As the only real standout LHP starter in the Minnesota MiLB system, Thorpe is very raw as is to be expected from a teenager from outside North America. Pitching as a 17-year-old in 44 IP of rookie ball, Thorpe posted outstanding numbers: 2.05 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 13.1 K/9, 1.2 BB/9, 0.4 HR/9. By this time next year, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Thorpe only behind Buxton and Sano on this list.
ETA: 2017

[WaitTilNextYear]

Upcoming Season
With Miguel Sano undergoing the knife to repair his UCL and Buxton hampered by nagging hand and wrist injuries, it looks all but certain that their ETA will be 2015 at the earliest. Kirby Puckett is not walking through that door either, so fans will have to continue to be patient with this imperfect roster.

The glaring issue this year, aside from a rotation that is still well below average, is an anemic offense. The Twins will have to rely on a lineup projected to have zero .300 hitters, zero 20+ HR hitters, and only one regular with an OBP north of .320. ZiPS (scaled for playing time) only projects a grand total of ~110 HRs to come from the opening day 25-man roster. The lineup does have a decent amount of L/R balance and potential May returns of Josh Willingham and Oswaldo Arcia will help bolster the corner OF spots. This offense will struggle as evidenced by the need to platoon the cleanup hitter spot between Chris Parmelee and Chris Colabello.

Coming out out of Spring Training, there were no major surprises. But there was some shifting around in the pen. RHP Anthony Swarzak and LHP Caleb Thielbar were roughed up and had trouble finding their release point. Both will be left off the Opening Day roster. In their place, LHP Kris Johnson and RHP Ryan Pressly will look to shore up long and middle relief. If they succeed, it’s likely that 2-3 pen arms get dealt at some point this season. The only other change of note was IF Danny Santana beating out Edwin Escobar for the UTIL spot. Escobar needed 32 Spring Training ABs before recording his 1st base hit and Ron Gardenire will turn to the youngster Santana—a last name of kings in Minnesota baseball lore.

Burning Questions

• Will Buxton continue to plow through minor league pitching?
• Will Sano heal in time for AFL play?
• Will Mauer’s shift to 1B extend his playing time and shelf life?
• Will Alex Meyer turn into a front-of-the-rotation starter this year?
• With a handful of trade pieces, can the minor league system be enhanced further?

Injuries and Suspensions

• OF Josh Willingham (wrist) will start the season on the 60-day DL
• OF Oswaldo Arcia (wrist) will start the season on the 60-day DL
• SP Mike Pelfrey (shoulder) will start the season on the 60-day DL
• INF Eddie Rosario will serve a 50-game suspension for a second violation of the MiLB Drug Program

Season Goals

• Keep Joe Mauer
• Win 75 games
• Acquire 2 power arms in trades
• Acquire lefty starter prospect

Total Budget: $69.5MM

25-Man Player Payroll: $44.7MM

Available to Spend: $8.4MM

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[AC]

Incredible as usual.

[Mrmagoo]

Hey, love all the info. before the season starts and the way you set it up!! I'll be trying to follow this