We Can't Be This Bad: Toronto Blue Jays (PS4)

[AC]

Basics:
Rosters: My own! (link)
Sliders: Custom
Schedule: 162 games
30 Team Control
Hitting Difficulty: Veteran
Pitching Difficulty: Veteran
Fielding Difficulty: Veteran
Hitting: Pure Analog
Pitching: Pure Analog
Fielding: Pure Analog
Quick Counts: On
Play Frequency: The season will be simulated until the real-life date of the franchise, at which point every game will be played. H/T to KHarmo for the idea.

House rules:
-Unlimited waiver claims
-One major league signing (regular season)
-Two major league signings (offseason)
-Two trades (regular season)
-Three trades (offseason)
-One Rule V Draft Pick
-A trade resulting from a DFA is counted as a waiver claim, not a trade

Projected Budget: $137,000,000


I'm doing a dynasty this year purely for selfish reasons. The purpose of this dynasty is not to make something entertaining for people to watch, or even for people to follow. That isn't to say I don't want whoever is reading this to follow; I certainly do. But I'm making a dynasty this year mainly for myself. I'd like to use this as a tool to regulate my franchise and stick with the same one while making realistic transactions, as well as use this as a way to practice my writing, more than I'm trying to impress people. I'm probably going to post series recaps all at once, using images and small blurbs like I did for part of last year, I'd like to go back to that. No videos, way too much effort for a dynasty like this. No back story. The dynasty will pick up at the conclusion of the 2013 season. I'd like to make some offseason corrections based on what the Jays should have looked into, although I'm not going to reverse any transactions.

All credit to guys like Brunt and Nicholson Smith, or any writer that I may use likeness of. However, the pieces that I'll be doing will actually be, y'know, written by me.

[AC]

Brunt: A Season Gone Wrong
STEPHEN BRUNT
NOVEMBER 10, 2013

When you step back and look upon the steaming pile of wreckage known as the 2013 Toronto Blue Jays, you have to wonder just what happened.

The lights. The flash. The hundreds of millions spent. It all seemed too good to be true for a city that hasn't felt the euphoria of a major sport's championship being brought home since Touch-'Em-All-Joe. But Blue Jays fans across the country allowed themselves to buy in to the hype, to feel optimistic about a Toronto sports team for the first time in what seemed like ever. It was justified, as well; The team had acquired a Cy Young winner, a former ace with something to prove in a contract year, the most durable starter in baseball, a speedy youngster at the keystone, and a left fielder looking to right the ship of his career. Added on to an already strong core, the playoffs seemed to be a sure thing.

As the dust now clears, the smoke fades, we're all left to ask; Where did it all go wrong?

The Blue Jays go into the offseason looking to answer that question.In answering that question, however, the club must answer a subset of smaller questions: Will J.P. Arencibia be tendered a contract? Will injury prone wreck of a starter Josh Johnson be offered a qualifying offer by Monday's deadline? How much impact will the hiring of new Rogers CEO Guy Laurence, known for his budget cuts, create on the Blue Jays' payroll?

This is quite possibly the most important offseason in the club's history. General Manager Alex Anthopoulos will need to step up to the plate and hit his pitch.

[AC]

Blue Jays acquire starter Miley, outfielder Cain
BEN NICHOLSON-SMITH
DECEMBER 12, 2013

After replacing the ever in the spotlight J.P. Arencibia with veteran Dioner Navarro and not issuing starter Josh Johnson a qualifying offer, the Toronto Blue Jays have acquired starting pitcher Wade Miley and outfielder Lorenzo Cain from the Diamondbacks and Royals - respectively - in a three team deal. Colby Rasmus and minor leaguer Nick Ahmed were sent to the Royals, while young minor league starter Miguel Almonte was sent to the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Rasmus, the up and down center fielder since 2011, was coming off of a season in which he hit 22 homers while sporting a .276 batting average, in arguably the best season of his pro career. He missed time after teammate Anthony Gose made an errant throw while warming up and struck Rasmus. His inconsistencies fed up the organization, opting to move him for the better athlete in Cain while filling a hole in the rotation.

"Colby's done a lot for the organization in his time here, he posted an .840 OPS last season, that's a very valuable player," started GM Alex Anthopoulos.

"But you never knew which Colby you were getting. We couldn't go into next season not knowing what we were getting on a day to day basis. A guy like Lorenzo [Cain], he hits righties and lefties similarly, he's an incredible athlete and gifted in the field. We've been very high on him since he was with Milwaukee. When you have a chance to add that to your lineup, and add a guy like Wade [Miley], who nearly won the ROY in the NL a few years ago, you can't turn that down.

Cain is coming off of a season in which he hit .251 with 4 home runs and 14 stolen bases. His OBP was below average at .310. Miley didn't quite replicate his outstanding rookie campaign, but posted a solid season, with a 3.55 ERA and 10 wins. Advanced metrics have him pegged for regression, however, as he walked more than a full batter per nine innings more in 2013 than in 2012. The walks will be a concern for Miley, as without elite strikeout numbers, he'll need to limit free passes and dingers.

The Jays add Miley to a deep group of starters lacking star power, with R.A. Dickey, Brandon Morrow, and Mark Buehrle seemingly locked in alongside Miley. The #5 spot is where things get tricky, however, with Dustin McGowan, J.A. Happ, Kyle Drabek, Marcus Stroman, Drew Hutchison, and even Ricky Romero all looking to take the job.

The move may not be the last for the Blue Jays this winter, who still have a hole at second base, and could even stand to add another pitcher.

[Bluejaysfan65]

Glad to see you back on the Dynasty boards! I'm interested to see how far you can take this team..

[CameRoN0407]

Glad to see you back on the boards! Hopefully this goes well (which I know it will), and you get this one guy that I know you want.

[royals19]

Sigh... I suppose I can live with the LoCain trade haha.

Great to see you back here in the dynasty forums dude! I was holding out hope that you'd still do a franchise this season.

[Frank is the Tank]

You've got yourself a follower

[AC]

Blue Jays' Kratz brings unique value to the table
BEN NICHOLSON-SMITH
DECEMBER 24, 2013

On this Christmas Eve, most are at home with their families, decking the halls, instead of catching baseballs.

Not Erik Kratz.

Acquired December 3rd from the Philadelphia Phillies, Kratz can be found on this cold December Eve at Mississauga's Baseball Zone, catching his new team's veteran knuckleballer, R.A. Dickey. Actually, catching may not be the word for it.

"I prefer receiving," Kratz says.

It may be the better word. Kratz, 33, is part of an uprising movement among major league baseball teams. From the Rays and Jose Molina to the Pirates with Russell Martin, pitch framing is quickly becoming a big factor in evaluating catchers. Matthew Carruth, a FanGraphs contributor, published his own pitch framing report for the public eye, and it certainly passes the smell test: Jonathan Lucroy, the Molina brothers, and Rusell Martin are all near the top of the league in pitch framing. Interestingly enough, two former Blue Jays are on the list; Yan Gomes and J.P. Arencibia.

Gomes, traded from the Jays to he Indians as a mere throw in with Mike Aviles for hard-throwing reliever Esmil Rogers, posted more than 3 wins above replacement last year, according to FanGraphs. However, that number is bolstered even further when you factor in his 15.2 runs saved from pitch framing. Having gone from a throw-in to an incredible catcher - ahem, receiver - this trade is looking like one of the worse moments in Alex Anthopoulos' tenure.

Arencibia, much-maligned by media and fans alike, posted one of the lowest OBPs ever last season, but he did bring his receiving skills to the table. Arencibia saved nearly 15 runs for the Blue Jays last season, according to Carruth's report. However, Arencibia was tasked with catching soft-tossing pitchers who nibble at corners like Casey Janssen and Mark Buehrle, making his task exponentially easier.

It isn't all bad, however.

Erik Kratz ranks in the top 20, with 6.8 runs above average. Coupled with a powerful bat and a solid glove as well as exceptional receiving skills, Kratz is posed to be a valuable contributor to the Blue Jays this season.

"I just hope I can help this team get back to the playoffs," the journeyman catcher mused. "That's the main goal. This club has a great fanbase, a great staff, it's a great organization. I'm just focused on doing what I can."

The pitch framing numbers are interesting at first glance, but there are still potential flaws that can affect the numbers, such as umpire bias, count, and batter handedness. The other problem that is posed that statistics may not be able to fix is that not all of the best framers are in the MLB. There are excellent pitch framers who don't see much time - Rene Rivera saved 8.3 runs in only 1504 pitches last season, when catchers generally see around 8500 - which affects the average that the catchers are compared to. An idea that has been floated around is probabilistic pitch framing, which is pitch framing based on how likely the outcome was. So, if a pitch was 59% likely to be called a strike, and it was called a ball, the catcher would lose 41 points.

There are plenty of proposed methods to quantify pitch framing. Many have taken shots, and many more will take shots. The proposition of quantifying a new skill in baseball is alluring. Organizations surely pay attention, too; BP author Mike Fast, who was one of the first to take a stab at pitch framing, was hired by the Houston Astros. Kratz is well aware of the value he could potentially provide.

"It's something I work on. It's something I put on par with my blocking, my hitting, all that. If there's a way I can provide value to the team, I'm going to work at it and perfect it."