I haven't played much career mode, so I don't have much of a baseline from which to gauge it. What difficulty level are you playing? I'm playing what little bit of career mode I have in modified tournament difficulty. I turned the swing meters off from the stock settings. The two tournaments I've played were won with -21 and -17 (I had the -21). The rest of the scores posted in the tournament followed the same bell curve formula as all of the previous Tigers I've played. I never get the sense that the AI players are actually playing the rounds out based on individual stat models (well, I KNOW they're not) so I feel like I'm playing against a formula based spreadsheet than a field of AI golfers anyway.
I think the career mode tournament scoring has a lot to do with the difficulty level you're using, the level at which you have the "cpu" players set (I'm on normal), and how you have the weather set. I think I recall that if you set it to "Live" the AI/CPU players scores won't be affected by the weather, but they are scaled if you're using preset weather.