MLB 12/13 - Understanding Player Resign Logic, Long Deals, Low Money

[Rumplebeanskin]

Hi,

I'm an NFL fan first and foremost, and understand that game inside and out, x's and o's to front office. I love baseball, but have a significantly lower level of understanding for a lot of the front office workings. I plan to purchase MLB 13 in May, so dug out my MLB 12 and started a franchise (I pretty much always used to play RTTS) with the desire of getting to grips with Franchise and getting excited now the new season is here IRL.

I have simmed my first season as the Pirates, and I am now at the off season. There are a number of things I believe I understand correctly:

• I have 3 seasons (MLB service) where I can offer a player a contact of 80% or greater and they cannot refuse that deal.
  
• For the next 3 years of service, I enter Arbitration with these players, but they cannot refuse arbitration and their salary is set by myself or the arbitration panel.
  
• From the 7th season of service, the player can enter arbitration as in seasons 4-6 of service, or they can decline and become free agents.
  
• A player can't just be kept in the minors indefinitely, as they will eventually be eligible for the rule 5 draft, or minor league free agency (I'm a little hazy on the lengths, but I think it's around 7 years? and 3/4 years for Rule 5)

Now, I have reached the first section of the free agency, the resigning of my own players. Pittsburgh have a number of high potential players, so they may not be world beaters right now, but they will be. When they are, they will be demanding the big bucks! Because of this, I do not understand why they have accepted the contracts I have offered them. Here are some examples:

Gerrit Cole, starting pitcher, near full potential bar. He has .030 of MLB service, so I could keep renewing he contract for about 400k for 3 seasons. At that point, I would imagine his stats will increased to the stage where he can probably command $3m-$4m perhaps in an Arbitration case, increasing that year on year until he can hit free agency and the big money. At 22, he accepted an 8 year deal worth $20m, $2.5m annually Now, I could have secured him for the next 3 years at around 400k (so it's a loss for me as a club right now in the short term), but his price after that would have increased significantly in the Arbitration years. I'm also getting 2 years after that in this deal where he could have hit the open market and made probably $10m-$15m maybe (Massive back end savings as a club).

Starling Marte (LF) is a similar example. He is 24, will probably now be my starting left fielder for the next 6-8 years easily. He has nearly a full potential bar. .141 years of service, so I could keep him cheaply for 3 years, and arbitration for another 3. He signs an 8 year deal worth $16m, $2m a season

I have several examples of this (Mark Appel, Jameson Taillon, Neil Walker, Pedro Alvarez, Lonnie Chisenhall, plus others), very high potential players who are between 22-26 who are willing to be locked up until the are 32/33 and entering the decline phase for less money than they would probably get in arbitration and/or free agency. Chisenhall deal is insane, 24 years old, 7 year deal worth $865k annually!!

The question I have are:
Is this a bug? Why would they agree to such low money, long year deals? I'm basically tying all my players down in the prime of their careers for $2m/$3m a season! If it is a bug, I'm basically cheesing this franchise into unrealistic oblivion!
Am I missing something in this process and this strategy is not a wise one for a reason I am currently unaware of?
From looking at other teams in the league (CPU), they seem to go down the 80% renewal route and 1 year deals, why is that?
Is this something that is/isn't in MLB 13 and that Franchise mode?

I would greatly appreciate any feedback that is available, I've looked at several places, on here and the rest of the net, I didn't find anything that covered what was happening

Cheers!

[djrenown]

Short answer is, this happens all the time. See the Tampa Bay Rays. Granted it's not for nearly as little money as the examples you cite above, but ask yourself the same question.

Would you take a GUARANTEED 3 million a year for 8 years or role the dice and and produce for 3 straight years before you even come close to sniffing 3 million. Then you'd have another 3 years, arbitration, that you'd have to prove your value.

It probably can be seen as a "little oversight", because they are signing at low amounts, but I know Evan Longoria did something similar after his first 1/2 year in the majors. It's the only reason he's still on the Rays. They wouldn't be able to afford him otherwisie. Very few teams do this though, because it's truly a toss up.

[Threeebs]

It's not a bug but it's something we've been able to achieve for as long as I can remember playing the game. I usually start a franchise with a lower market team so my payroll is always low. I use similar tactics when dealing with A and high B potential prospects, however I do it a little differently.

I make sure they have an expiring contract after their rookie season and because they are not yet at their potential peak and their ratings are still low, they won't ask for that much. It all depends on what their overall is of course. What I do differently so I don't abuse the system is only offer them contract lengths covering their 6 years of service time before they can become free agents. They still make millions but this way you're not forced to trade them away if you can't afford them in their arbitration years and it's fair because I give them the oppurtunity to sign elsewhere after only 6 years.

The plus to this includes the player usually taking less money than they are demanding when they become a qualified free agent, choosing to stay with the team, taking a sort of "home town discount".

[BrianU]

One thing to keep in mind is that contract values in The Show are approximately half of what they are in real life. Almost exactly half. The entire system is on a different scale budgets, contracts etc.. It still needs improvement though

[Rumplebeanskin]

Interesting feedback. The issue would be then that in real life it is a risky strategy as potential cannot be seen as a rating from A-F, so there are no sure things. As far as I know in The Show, prospects don't fail, or bust?

Meaning the long term low cash contracts is a strategy that couldn't really be "exploited" in real life, but can be when playing The Show because potential is a predefined rating and is pretty concrete.

[Pete_Dogg_18]

Quote: Originally Posted by Rumplebeanskin

Interesting feedback. The issue would be then that in real life it is a risky strategy as potential cannot be seen as a rating from A-F, so there are no sure things. As far as I know in The Show, prospects don't fail, or bust? Meaning the long term low cash contracts is a strategy that couldn't really be "exploited" in real life, but can be when playing The Show because potential is a predefined rating and is pretty concrete.

Potential is not always concrete, in a fantasy draft I had 2 A potential guys downgraded to B potential, 6 B potential downgraded to C potential and only one B upgrade to an A and one C upgrade to a B...

[raynman]

Quote: Originally Posted by BrianU

One thing to keep in mind is that contract values in The Show are approximately half of what they are in real life. Almost exactly half. The entire system is on a different scale budgets, contracts etc.. It still needs improvement though

Is this based on your observation or is this officially what SCEA did? The latter would make a lot of sense because I've noticed this too (D. Price signing a 5 year extension at 10m/yr after a Cy Young in 2013, for example). I don't mind it because it makes it a bit easier to fill a roster.

[Threeebs]

Quote: Originally Posted by raynman

Is this based on your observation or is this officially what SCEA did? The latter would make a lot of sense because I've noticed this too (D. Price signing a 5 year extension at 10m/yr after a Cy Young in 2013, for example). I don't mind it because it makes it a bit easier to fill a roster.

I don't know if that's what they actually did. Maybe in their base roster but when you enter a franchise, these contracts are usually higher in dollar value based on their OVR and position. For example Edwin Encarnacion makes around 9 million IRL and in SCEA's default roster I'm pretty sure it's around 9 million per as well. When you enter a franchise or season though he makes around 16 million in the first year of the deal...