The 2016 GB Packers

[Wheeler Dealer]

I need to tell this story. This season has been very entertaining and instructive. I'll need to flashback to frame this properly.

At the end of 2014 I left Washington for Green Bay for a new challenge. Arriving in Green Bay, I found a great group of assistant coaches and a bunch of mediocre, overpaid players.

This post included some of the first year housecleaning:

http://www.operationsports.com/forum...aw-before.html

Just before the start of the 2015 season the GM screen told me I ranked 29th in total team talent. During the season I traded 3 or 4 more starters for draft picks, including Aaron Kampman (95) so I would think I should have been ranked even lower by year end.

One decision I made that eventually plays into the tale involves the rookie QB Kosta Warfield. He was a Drew Brees look alike and I got him in the 6th round. He was a 78/92 OVL but he had 78% health. Well through my two careers I've had many Drew Brees QBs as backups. They all had 78% health and it never was a problem, but I never kept one past his rookie contract. I decided to take a chance on Kosta Warfield.

This team went 11-5 and except for a slider accident posted here

http://www.operationsports.com/forum...post2044753765

They might have gone 13-3. We got to the Super Bowl and lost.

I decided that this excellent showing for such an ordinary team was due to the great assistant coaches. What's more, I am getting to the point that unless I can find some way to make things more challenging, it's time to move to another game.

So I changed my Coach Clipboard settings so I didn't even see the hiring prompts for staffing and set my philosophy to give up max control over hiring. Then I fired everyone but my GM (28) and my Trainer (99) (hedging my bet I suppose). The GM then fired the trainer or he quit and beginning the next season I had a trainer rated at 48 and a bunch of coaches that were pretty raw.

In 2015 my coaching advantage bars were 90 to 95%. In 2016 they were below 50%. I went from very few injuries during the season to a few injuries every week.

I have an extensive set of house rules that I have gradually collected and I stuck with those.

http://www.operationsports.com/forum...playing-3.html
http://www.operationsports.com/forum...continues.html

I got off to a poor start:

http://www.operationsports.com/forum...raft-ever.html

My talent was better, I ranked 20th this year. My "top 28":

Pos OVL/POT age name
QB 88/92 23 K Warfield
HB1 85/87 25 M Shakur
HB2 81/82 32 J Kedington
FB 84/85 25 S Payton
WR1 85/86 30 T Knox
WR2 85/85 32 J Jones
WR3 67/91 21 M Marshall
TE 85/87 27 Q Forest
LT 89/89 30 J Fulmer
LG 90/90 28 J McHugh
C 83/90 24 G Krabbenholt (should have known from the name!)
RG 91/91 32 S Cumberland
RT 90/90 32 A Barron
------------
LE 82/86 22 J Whitman
RE 80/85 24 D Packwood
DT1 87/90 25 P Noa
DT2 78/79 27 M Bond
LOLB 79/87 23 D Edwards
MLB1 83/88 24 O Dent
MLB2 85/86 34 DJ Williams
ROLB 87/87 31 AJ Hawk
CB1 86/90 26 T Lewis
CB2 83/87 28 S Montgomery
CB3 78/84 23 R Hampton
FS 89/90 30 A Champion
SS 82/84 24 S McGuire
--------------
K 85/93 31 M Crosby
P 86/91 32 J Ryan
(Rookies)

I expected to do very well with this group, even a Super Bowl maybe.I simmed through the preseason games, I think we won one. My first draft choice, Krabbenholt missed most of training camp with injuries.

Here's how it went (full season records for opponents)

L Cowboys (5-11) 30-35 lost the TO battle 2-5 and had 4 starters injured.
L Bears (7-9) 21-25 We had 3 huge plays 73 yd run, 56 yd pass, 66 yd Int Ret, they had 6 FG and a 91 fumble ret.
W Eagles (12-4) 31/28 won the 4th quarter 14-7.
L Lions (7-9) 34-35 Game winning FG canceled by holding penalty.
L Titans (10-6) 29-37

I'm 1-4. I had a lot of very disappointing, very important plays. There had been a few key receptions coupled with a fumble by the receiver. A 4th down QB sneak got the first and then the QB fumbled.

There seemed to be a tackling problem with my team. Ordinary opposing runners were having their way with my defense! Even when we did hit them, quite often they surged forward another 3 or 4 yards while going down. And my runners needed to break a tackle to get out of the backfield!

But the total number of missed assignments was coming down and I wasn't having to use as many unlearned plays. I had seen this pattern before particularly at the start of my two careers, poor start followed by a radical improvement as the players learned the system.

Krabbenholt had yet to play a full game. I signed a backup center and he was injury prone, too! Put the first backup on IR and signed a 38 year old healthy center!

W Vikings (8-8) 51-27 We pulled away 24-7 in the 4th. 5 TD passes!

Now things are turning!!!

L Lions (7-9) 35-38 It was 28-35 at half! We had TD plays of 79, 71, 66 & 46!
L Giants (11-5) 13-37 http://www.operationsports.com/forum...-day-when.html

They crushed us, I was officially worried now!

L Redskins (9-7) 10-24 turnovers 1-3

There were a couple of interesting sidelights. We essentially had traded HBs in the offseason. I didn't resign Ray Rice and signed Marquis Shakur. They did exactly the opposite. I lost 5 points in OVL rating but gained 5 years. Rice ran for 95 and Shakur ran for 32.

I had traded them Aaron Kampman during the 2015 season. His OVL was still 95. I ran to the other side the whole first half. When I finally tried his side the running game came alive! His total defensive line was 1 tackle!

Even so, I was now 2-7 and pretty much ready to give up.

W Bears (7-9) 35-23 Shakur had 20 carries for 144 yards!
W Saints (10-6) 48-20 Won turnovers 4-2 with 2 pick 6
W Cardinals (8-8) 24-16 Lewis had 2 pick 6s. Keddington filled in for Shakur with 60 yds.
W Texans (3-13) 41-35 This was supposed to be easy. Ginn KOR TD, Knox KOR TD, Lewis Pick 6, Shakur 121 yds.
L Colts (15-1) 7-47 Seven picks by Warfield! One more by Brohm.

I was sure I was cooked now at 6-8. The only hopeful note was that no one in my division was doing much better. The Vikings were 8-6 but I got to play them and if we won we would have the tiebreaker on them. The Bears were 7-7 so it was still mathematically possible to win the division at 8-8. Injuries were piling up. James my best receiver was out along with Krabbenholt, DT2 Bond and MLB2 Williams. Warfield was showing some wear and tear.

W Vikings (8-8) 42-14 Two TDs, 73yd pass and a pick six just before half.

Going into the last game the Packers were tied with the Bears and one behind the Vikings. Trouble was the Bears had the tiebreaker over the Packers so it looked like I had to win while the Vikings and Bears both lost. maybe if there was a three way tie there would be a different tie breaker with the Bears, I don't know.

What's worse, during practice Warfield's health dropped down to 65%. I didn't think he could get through the game and I didn't think going into the playoffs without him was going to do any good. I held him out. At least I had a decent backup, Brian Brohm (79).

W Jaguars (6-10) 27-24

Shakur got injured on the first offensive series. A 67 OVL back named May put 101 yds up on us. We scored 10 in the 4Q to pull it out. With about 1:30 left and Jacksonville on our 25 we got a pick and managed to run out the clock.

The Vikings and Bears both lost! Our final division standings:

8-8 Packers
8-8 Vikings
7-9 Bears
7-9 Lions

The Packers are in the playoffs after being on life support at 2-7 and left for dead at 6-8!!!

Season leaders
Warfield 3755 yards 27 TDs and 26 Interceptions
Shakur 956 yards and 6 TDs. (BTW Rice got 1055)
Q Forest (TE) 66 catches, 969 yds and 13 TDs.
J Whitman 8 Sacks
O Dent 101 tackles
T Lewis 9 intc and 5 def TD
T Ginn 3 KOR TD

My rookies:
Krabbenholt C (2nd rd) played 322 downs only reached OVL 85
Packwood RE (2nd rd) played 813 downs starting all year.
Marshall WR3 (2nd rd) played 431 downs progressing from 67 to 75 OVL
Payton ROLB (3rd rd) played 256 downs on special teams and backup LB
Hampton CB3 (4th rd) played 564 downs progressing from 78 to 79 OVL

Now to get ready for the Giants again. Williams MLB2 and Ginn KR and WR4 are out. Warfield QB is up to 73% health and will get a little higher if I hold him out of practice this week. Bond, Krabbenholt & Shakur are scheduled to be available mid week. Krabbenholt has an arm at 13%, Shakur and Bond have body parts around 45%.

Considering how the Giants kicked us around at mid season I'm not very hopeful, but considering how unlikely it was we would even make the playoffs, this isn't any harder!

I'm almost afraid to finish it!

[Wheeler Dealer]

Well the fairy tale ending didn't materialize! The Giants spanked my team 28-7! It may have had something to do with their 11 sacks! It didn't help that my starting HB got knocked out of the game on his 4th carry. Krabbenholt got injured and left the game too, but the strange thing would have been for him to play the entire game!

The first half Eli was just magical. I don't think they had to punt. The one time I had them stopped the ref called pass interference. Can you have PI behind the line of scrimmage. I'm filing a protest!

They cruised down the field to three first half TDs. I felt helpless. I finally just relaxed and conceded that Eli was too good (95 OVL) for my team. And he didn't have much of a run game to distract me. Sometime in the 2nd Q I pretty much quit worrying about them doing any damage on the ground.

Then the strangest thing happened, I think. Somehow I stumbled onto the fact that they couldn't sustain a drive against man defenses. The whole second half I didn't call any zone coverages and they didn't score. They ended up with one TO (my pick 6 and only score) and 6 punts and I think all the punts were all in the second half!

The other really weird thing that happened had to do with my QB and his health. He went into the game with 74% health. In fact on our first possession we ended up with 3rd and inches and I didn't call the 98% effective QB sneak because I didn't want to get him hit. I called a PA pass and he was sacked!!!

So after taking 11 sacks he came out of the game with 77% health. Who knew getting knocked to the ground by large, angry men was therapeutic?!?

Now I'm interested enough to play another season, at least. I think I'll follow my owner's lead on the staff except for the two team goals I have. One is to fire the GM (I wonder if that will affect my accumulated scouting data?) and the other is to keep the OC (he's not that great anyway).

[justincase]

Looking forward to hearing how the season goes, I really like the format on reviewing the entire season in one post. Good luck!

[Wheeler Dealer]

Here's the story of the 2017 Packers. This is the kind of season I want from this game. Some highs, some lows, a chance to make clever moves and suffer from stupid mistakes. That feeling that if you can just get he play calling right you might win! Enjoy!

First off, I fired the GM to meet the team goal and fired the LB Coach as the owners wished. I left the hiring to the owners and GM. The new GM, Warren Flanagan, was about like the old one but the LB Coach, Ronde Barber, was a step up. I was a bit surprised that Barber was a LBC vs. a DBC!

Now to get ready for the FA musical chairs. I really didn't have any expensive extensions coming up. I figured all the players I wanted to keep would sign for something similar to their current deals. What's more, as a result of spending my first two years in Green Bay getting bad contracts off the books, I had $38M to work with! I set aside $7M for my draft class and another $3M just to be safe and then set out to see if I could find a way to spend $28M wisely!

I had a pretty good kicker (Mason Crosby) who was being unreasonable about his extension during the season. He wanted $1.8M/year and the tops in the league for kickers was $1.6M. So I decided to wait and franchise him. The Franchise tag was $2.2M!!! And the tops in the league was still $1.6M! I franchised him anyway.

Then I went shopping. First player I had interest in was RE Corwin Cobb. He was an RFA but they only had him tendered at a 2nd. He was an 89 OVL and I knew he had higher potential because I drafted him when I was coaching the Redskins! I got him for $41M/5 yrs. with an $8M bonus but no incentives! I was tickled that they didn't match. Huge improvement and it met a team goal!

Then came MLB Martin McPeek, 92 OVL. I didn't feel MLB was a problem. Othello Dent, a 2015 draftee was progressing nicely and DJ Williams was holding up well. I was reluctant to preempt the plans I already had in place and he was older than I like (33). BUT... he only wanted a 2 year deal and he was in excellent health and there was that 92 OVL! I got him for $10.5M for 2 years including a $3.5M bonus and 2 $250K incentives I didn't expect him to meet.

I missed out on the Kicker I wanted, the bidding was just silly.

My third acquisition was Dorin McKinnley, WR 84 OVL. I wasn't happy with either of my first 2 WR and had let their contracts expire. Now I didn't find anyone much better. At least Dorin was younger (26). I got him for $20M for 5 years including a $5,5M bonus and no incentives.

That was it predraft. I got three starters and spent about $17M against this year's cap. I was also active in the trading market!

I picked up Marcus Vess, HB 84 OVL for a 4th. He had two years on his deal and was only $2M per year.

Then someone offered me a 2nd for Krabbenholt!!! I asked them to increase their offer and they threw in a 7th. Happy Days

I traded off Mason Crosby for peanuts 'cause I let my money get mad. I regretted it!

I went into the draft with picks in 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 5, 5, 6, 6, 7, 7.

I got what I hoped was a star SS in the first and a solid center in the 2nd. I missed on a WR in the 3rd and traded out of the 4th. I missed three times in the 5th but found a starter at LE in the 6th along with a good QB and a project WR. In the 7th I found a useful backup LT.

I ended up with 11 picks and I think they all signed for minimum contracts before the first preseason game!

I simmed the preseason games and after the last cut I found a jewel:

So after the final cuts a primo DT is cut by the Texans. It so happened I was having trouble finding suitable players to spend my money on, so I was READY! (house rule, pay starters a fair price). I grabbed him, dropped him and waited for the bidding to start. No dice. I could see him by going to Roster and the FA but I couldn't resign him. So I simmed forward to the next week to see what was happening. He never came up and he wasn't in the pool or on any team!

So I got in my time machine and went back. I waited until the next week to drop him and he immediately came up for bids. I got him for $6.2M for one year rather than the silly $2.0M I would have had to pay to just sign him.

I picked up a better #3 HB (J Sosa 80) and a much improved backup FS (T Henderson 84) as well. During training camp I had added a #4 RB (66 C Aldridge) and a #4 CB (79 D Cromartie) for kick returns. My Key 28 to start 2017 looked like this:

QB 89/92 24 K Warfield
HB1 84/86 26 M Shakur
HB2 84/84 28 M Vess (trade)
FB 85/85 26 S Payton
WR1 84/85 26 D McKinley (FA)
WR2 76/91 22 M Marshall (project from 2016 draft)
WR3 84/85 33 J Jones (yeah, I hired him back)
LT 89/89 31 J Fulmer
LG 90/90 29 J McHugh
C 86/89 24 J Coughlin (rd 2 pick)
RG 91/91 33 S Cumberland
RT 90/90 33 A Barron
------------------
RE 84/91 23 T Elliot (rd 6 pick, Tamba Hali look alike)
LE 89/90 26 C Cobb (RFA, 2nd round pick plus contract)
DT1 88/90 26 P Noa
DT2 88/90 26 A Greenwood (FA after final cuts)
LOLB 80/86 24 D Edwards (soon replaced by DJ Williams moving from MLB)
MLB1 92/95 33 M McPeek (FA)
MLB2 85/88 25 O Dent
ROLB 87/87 32 AJ Hawk
CB1 86/90 27 T Lewis
CB2 85/89 29 S Montgomery
CB3 79/84 24 R Hampton
FS 89/90 31 A Champion
SS 85/88 21 M Sledge (round 1 pick)
-------------------
K 84/89 24 R Watson (FA)
P 86/91 33 J Ryan

I felt good about this team. According to the GM we were 10th in overall talent but my coaching staff was only average (by observation of the coaching advantage bar during play). Still, I've won Super Bowls with less talent. But I am coming off an 8-8 season.

The season started with a very unusual schedule. Five of my first six games were on the road! Luckily, I don't think that makes any difference in this game! Here we go!

Full season records given for opponents.

W 1-0 Atl (8-8) 45-17 Vess ran for 74, Marshall caught 6 and Lewis had a pick 6. I was considering whether I could afford the roster spot for Aldridge and then he ran back a KO for a TD!

W 2-0 Bal (6-10) 48-21 Shakur 189 yards with TDs of 2, 52 & 74. M Sledge had 2 Pick 6s. They were both chosen Player of the Week.

W 3-0 Min (6-10) 43-14 two Int & TD for T Lewis. Shakur out after 2nd carry.

W 4-0 Pitt (4-12) 38-24 K Warfield had 5 TD passes! He was PoWeek.

As you might surmise, at this point I was afraid I had somehow overpowered the game again and was headed for a boring season of blowouts. Au contraire.

L 4-1 Car (7-9) 11-41 They had 3 defensive TDs. TO were 0-5! Oh well!

W 5-1 Det (8-7-1) 30-20 I was concerned about this one. We lost two close games to Detroit last year. This was close too, but a 95 yard pick 6 with 1:00 to go saved my bacon!

L 5-2 TB (10-6) 6-28 Warfield threw 6 interceptions. They had 3 Pick 6's.

L 5-3 Cle (12-3) 38-41ot Weird game. The Browns had 2 defensive TDs. We missed 2 FG. They ran the ball once in the 1st half! I missed a shot at a game winning 46 yard FG at the end of regulation. With about 7 seconds left and a TO in my pocket I saw my receiver make the catch and run out of bounds. I thought I could take one more shot to get closer, use my TO and then kick the winning FG. Then my assistant coach starts screaming to take the TO. I looked and the clock was running! I hit the wrong button and we were going to OT! (Dunce cap)

W 6-3 Min (6-10) 38-13 I own these guys!

W 7-3 SF (9-7) 27-9 On the good side of 6-2 turnovers.

W 8-3 Phil (11-5) 55-14 We had 2 pick 6s and 6 TD passes.

L 8-4 Chi (9-7) 35-38ot Near the end of regulation I got the benefit of a penalty for PI, but it didn't gain as much ground as declining the penalty. I declined hoping the clock would run but it didn't! If I could have run that extra 30 seconds off the clock they would never have tied the game!

L 8-5 NO (11-5) 42-49 They got a KOR TD with 0:44 left! I had two shots from their 18 at the end!

This was getting serious!

W 9-5 Chi (9-7) 23-14 It wasn't as close as the score looked. I out gained them 354-116. Turnovers were 1-2 in their favor but I had that silly stat, time of possession, 44:16-15:44. That translated into 70-47 offensive plays.

At this point there were still 11 teams with playoff hopes. It didn't look good for the Packers to get a first round bye but a win over Detroit in the finale should secure the division championship.

W 10-5 Cin (4-12) 32-27 Watson missed 3 XPs! Warfield was hurt so Watters got the start. I had to drop a DT (Bond 79) to pick up a backup QB, Bobo (77). Watters threw for 298 2-1 and Shakur ran for 153.

W 11-5 Det (8-7-1) 44-10 This was a replay. I had virtually won this game once when the system locked up. I was up 17-14 with a first down and less than 2:00 minutes to play. I anguished over whether to just simulate until I got a win or just replay. I finally decided to replay. I love playing the game so why not replay an interesting game. Besides, I was virtually locked into winning the division but failing to get a bye.

I sat out Warfield QB, Shakur HB1, Barron RT, and Beal TE2. Vess ran for 157 on 20 carries. Needless to say everything else went well.

So we won our division and are set for a rematch with TB.

During the year I extended AJ Hawk. I had a few others that were willing to extend with no bonus. That gives me maximum flexibility!

I tried very hard to extend A Greenwood (DT 87) but ultimately decided his price was too high for the #2 DT in a 3/4 scheme. I'll probably franchise him and try to trade. I have a large chunk of money I don't need until Warfield's extension comes up next fall.

At some point it occurred to me that Henderson (FS 84) who was playing 5th CB at 78 would be a great extension. At FS prices I could sign him long term and then move him to CB. Sigh, too late, I'd already run him off and he didn't want to negotiate with me anymore! Maybe I should franchise him?

Well, on to the playoffs! TB had beaten us soundly last time. Here's hoping it was something we can overcome!

W 12-5 TB (10-6) 28-25 Down 7-17 at half. Pulled up to 14-17 in 3rd. Up 21-17 with about 1:40 on TB 3. Hope to pound line and run clock but Vess scored on 1st down (wonder if they lay down?). They flew down the field, scored, made their 2 points and I was just an onside kick from my nightmare. Whew, I woke up a 28-25 winner. Shakur had 83 rushing and 57 receiving. Vess had 35 rushing and 3 TDs. Forest caught 7 passes!

Next up, rematch with the Saints. First time around they won a shootout with a KOR TD in the last minute.

L 12-6 NO (11-5) 21-26 Heartbreaking loss! Down 10-0 we scored with 2:08 in the half to make 7-10. Got the ball back and at 1:18 threw a pick 6! Third quarter went 0-0. Had 4th and goal from their 2 and went for it. We didn't score and they wiggled out and went to my 30 and made a 47 yd FG! Several unlikely things there!

Now down 7-20 early in the 4th, we put together a drive to bring it to 14-20. On the first play after the KO, I decided to defend against the outside run to the wide side of the field. I called a Stinger, where the ROLB circles right and upfield outside. They ran the play I was defending against for an 80 yard TD!!! Well, at least it didn't take long! Down 14-26.

Now with the drama of back to back TO exchanged, we drove the field again and pulled up to 21-26 with 3:36 remaining. I resisted the urging to ownside kick. We had them at 3rd and 14 they ran a draw for 15!!! We stopped them again and then failed on 4 straight passes, these were reliable passes with ten to twenty yard potential.

They took over and ran when they probably should have kneeled. They fumbled and we recovered with over a minute. Sigh, call reversed, they kneeled out the game.

They fumbled twice on sacks and recovered! Marshall dropped 4 passes! It just wasn't my day!!!

My rookies:

Rd 1 M Sledge SS 86/88 DRoY, 16 starts, 789 DP, 77 Tackles, 8 Int
Rd 2 C J Coughlin 88/89 healthy! 16 starts, 1023 DP
Rd 6 LE T Elliot 85/90 15 starts, 653 DP, 38 Tackles, 7 Sacks
Rd 6 QB S Watters 80/87 2 starts, 222 DP 920 YP, 7 TD 6 Int.
Rd 6 WR D Claiborne 71/84 0 starts, 131 DP, 7 catches for 63 yards
Rd 7 LT R Dockett 76/86, 0 starts, 32 DP

My pro bowlers:

FB S Payton (2nd in voting)
TE Q Forest (3)
DE T Elliot (3)
MLB M McPeek (2)
SS M Sledge (1)

leaders:

K Warfield 4269, 35-20
M Shakur 865-9
D Mckinly 1452, 74-12
M McPeek 82 tackles
T Elliot 7 sacks
M Sledge 8 Int
T Lewis 8 Def TD
C Aldridge 1 KOR TD

I hope someone enjoys this, it took hours to write!

[Wheeler Dealer]

I intend to cover my 2018 Packers offseason in this post.

I saved and took a quick at available jobs. The Cowboys were shopping and they need help! I started to go but I decided I wanted to finish my GB run first.

For the second year in a row I fired my GM (team goal again). This time I got Tom Tedson who was an improvement over my prior GM. I also had a team goal to hire a college coach. I didn't really think this would happen since I have turned the staffing process over to the GM and owners. But I figured I had to at least fire a coordinator to make it possible so I fired my DC, Bruce Spagnola. My owners wanted me to promote Ronde Barber so I did. That was also an improvement but Sam Madison who replaced Ronde at LBC was a big step down. The owners had me keep the rest.

The next order of business was to look at the RFAs and decide what was happening there. I had 4 RFAs to deal with.

RE 79/86 26 J Gordon $4.0M est. market price, tender level 1
CB 77/83 26 S McGuffie $2.3M est. market, tender level 1
QB 90/92 25 K Warfield $10.0M est. market, tender level 4
TE 79/85 25 T Beal $3.5M est. market, tender level 2

That's $18.8M against the cap if I can extend them all. Warfield is the only starter so I may tender and trade the others.

I estimated my draft class at $6.0m and if I extended everyone I want to come back it would cost about another $4.6M. I'm going to franchise Greenwood for roughly $7.5M but he will either be traded or cut by the time I need to extend Warfield.

I have $40M room under the cap so I can afford $10M for FAs, more if I don't extend all the RFAs.

There are three FAs I have serious interest in:

WR 91 29 J Davis est. market $9.0M
CB 88 27 D Miles est. market $5.5M
LOLB 87 32 J Atkins est. market $5.5M

I have some interest in FS 84 25 T Henderson est. market $2.5M

The very first decision is whether to "cheat" the system with McGuffie. McGuffie is borderline to come up for bids before the draft. If he doesn't I'll just lose him. It's a bug and the way to get around it is to drop and resign him immediately when the offseason begins. I decided I could replace him easy enough if I had to so I tendered him hoping somebody would take him.

I've always been a little confused about how the game handles the salary cap with RFAs so I watched a lot closer this time. When I tendered the first RFA (level 1) it docked me $5.970M. When I tendered the other three it didn't dock me anything. The total was exactly as though I had tendered all four RFAs at their recommended levels at once, even though I could have made different decisions on the other three. Maybe it would have corrected if I had.

So, anyway, I tendered all four RFAs as recommended and franchised Greenwood for $7.3M. Now back to the FAs.

1) J Davis. D McKinley 1452, 74-12 was my lead receiver in 2017. I couldn't imagine J Davis would do much better than that so I decided to save that $9.0M. I sure loved the look of that 91 ovl rating though! The bidding actually went to $45/5 without me bidding so I would have had to spend a bit more if I had gone that way.

2) D Miles would easily be my number one CB and he had a 99 rating as a KR as well! I decided I really wanted him. It cost me $38M/5, about $2M a year more than my estimate!

3) J Atkins was only a slight upgrade over DJ Williams but he was younger, healthier and that would make Williams and his $2.0M salary expendable. I got him for $11.5M/2 yrs. His cap hit was $5.6M.

4) T Henderson would be a good backup for both safety positions but I thought I could move him to CB and end up with a steal. I got him for $12M/5 yrs. but it doesn't look like he will be as good at CB as I hoped. He played there for me in 2017 as a 78 OVL without moving him. When I moved him he only went up to a 79. Maybe with the right coaching...

Meanwhile I got a offer sheet on Warfield. I was delighted. I could get him back for three years for $20M! However, as I looked at the upcoming draft, I saw greener grass! There were two excellent QBs near the top of the draft. One was JJ Sunday (Joe Montana)! Warfield was not the healthiest QB, he had missed 2 games his third year. He also threw 20 Int. his third year. IRL that would have led the NFL in 2012.

It probably wasn't the conservative, safe decision, but I decided to take the 1st and 3rd picks and try to trade up for one of those franchise QBs!

J Gordon (RE) and T Beal (TE) were returned with no offer sheet but McGuffie must not have come up for bids, he dropped into the FA pool and I lost my rights to him.

Somewhere along about this time I made one of the worst decisions of the offseason. Someone wanted to trade for M Vess (HB 84). I had given up a 4th to get him last year and he had served me well as my HB2. I figured I could get a serviceable HB in the draft or out of the FA pool and I took a 3rd and a 7th for Vess.

So, it's draft day and QB is on my mind. I've had individual workouts for both JJ Sunday and Rob Holloway and I think I like Holloway a little better. Sunday scouted out 93/90 and Holloway 91/92. But a Joe Montana comparison is so much sexier than a Trent Dilfer comparison.

Anyway, I figured I would wait until one of them went and then try to trade up for the other. Ideally I would like to get one somewhere around 9th. Silly plan, Sunday went first! According to the point chart I have, my 14th and 25th would only have gotten me up to 4th. I checked out what I thought each team would take as they came up. I was hoping someone would ask to trade down, I figured they would be more negotiable.

Finally I got down to 6th and it looked to me like the Cowboys needed a QB worse than I did. I asked to trade up and EUREKA, they took my 25th plus Ty Beal (TE 79) and DJ Williams (LOLB 85) who I wanted to move anyway!!!

I got this haul:

1-6 QB 91/92 R Holloway (Trent Dilfer) **
1-14 WR 90/89 C Hazelwood (M Muhammad) *
2-57 DT 83/87 L Keefe (J Furgerson) couldn't trade down *
3-78 RT 74/87 K Daily (R Tucker) **
3-81 HB 80/? L Hester () *
3-89 RG 70/89 G Figgins (Shawn Andrews) *
4-105 CB 65/89 B Terry (McAllister) traded up *
5-153 TE 1/? D Case (K Winslow)
6-161 QB 1/? D Morris (( D Brees)
6-173 WR 57/? N beck (M Muhammad) *
6-185 HB 59/? C Joseph (D Ward) (what can I say, I was running out of HB)

** Starter
* made team

I was disappointed when we got to training camp and Holloway was 80/92 and Hazelwood was 75/89. There were some nice developments as well. B Terry came in at 82/89 allowing me to trade S Montgomery who was too expensive to be the #3 CB anyway.

I haggled over Montgomery for weeks trying to get a 2nd out of M Martz and then Oakland came along and gave me a 2nd and a 7th! I was disappointed that no one seemed to be interested in Greenwood. I don't understand, if I sort DT by OVL he's 17th in the league. If I change my philosophy to balanced he only drops one point OVL.

Let me jump ahead here so I don't forget. About three weeks into the season after three injuries at DE I decided that if I had to keep Greenwood that would be OK. I did want to get that $7.3M price tag down so I dropped him. It looked like I would be able to resign him for his minimum $4M but 6 teams showed up to bid!!! I gave him $6M with a $1M bonus and some incentives he won't meet. I put him back on the trading block and still no one wants to talk to me!!!

I simmed through the preseason going 2-2.

Here are my 28 key Packers for 2018:

QB 80/92 24 R Holloway 1st rd
HB1 85/86 27 M Shakur
HB2 76/86 25 J Dumas FA pool
FB 84/84 27 S Payton
WR1 84/91 23 M Marshall
WR2 86/87 27 D McKinley
WR3 75/89 21 C Hazelwood 1st rd
TE 87/89 29 Q Forest
LT 89/89 32 J Fulmer
LG 90/90 30 J McHugh
C 88/89 25 J Coughlin
RG 91/91 34 S Cumberland
RT 82/87 24 K Daily 3rd rd
-------------
LE 85/90 24 T Elliot
RE 89/90 26 C Cobb
DT1 88/89 27 P Noa
DT2 83/87 24 L Keefe 2nd rd
LOLB 87/88 32 J Atkins FA
MLB1 92/95 34 M McPeek
MLB2 85/87 26 O Dent
ROLB 87/87 33 AJ Hawk
CB1 88/91 27 D Miles FA
CB2 86/90 28 T Lewis
CB3 82/89 23 B Terry 4th rd
FS 89/90 32 A Champion
SS 86/88 22 M Sledge
--------------
K 76/78 29 R Wilson FA Pool
P 84/90 34 J Ryan

According to my GM I have the 22nd best total team talent. I think this year's team is better than last year's and the GM rated us 10th last year!

I have $13.8M cap room left and can't imagine how I will use more than about half of it.

[Wheeler Dealer]

So here we go. I'm hoping 2018 will produce a deeper playoff run, maybe even a trip to the Super bowl. A lot will depend on how fast my rookie QB comes around!

Full season record given for opponents.

W 1-0 Sea (9-7) 58-43 An explosive and somewhat scary start. I received and drove for a TD. But then..... Seattle returned my KO for a TD, I got the ball back and immediately threw a pick 6 and then I fumbled the next KO! Whew I got that fumble overturned! Later I was up by 24 in tthe 4Q when there was another frightening run. They scored a TD and got a 2 pt. conversion. A turnover by my Packers was followed by another TD +2 at 7:08. This led to a 4th and ten for us at the Seahawks 38 with about 2:30 left. I hit a 21 yard completion and then pushed it in for a close 15 point win! Holloway 20/31 291 5-2, Shakur 98+33 1 TD, Champion PoWeek.

I had left an open slot on my roster so to attract potential trades. Houston came around shopping HB S Mc Neal 78/79 28. I needed help at HB so I gave up a 5th. His salary is too high ($3.6M) for my tastes but I can afford it now and I can move him next year. (Why did I let go of M Vess?)

W 2-0 Min (4-12) 44-14 IOTGuys! Elliot injured, out 3+ months. Two other DEs out for shorter stretches. TO 0 me 4 them. Holloway 18/28 252 0-0, B Terry PoWeek.

W 3-0 Det (6-10) 35-13 We got 2 safeties! Holloway 16/34 259 1-3, Shakur 77+97 3 TDs, Miles KOR TD.

W 4-0 NE (9-7) 43-24 Shakur 25/189 2 TD + 3/36 PoWeek. Holloway 18/30 246 2-1. DT2 Keefe and RT1 Daily on IR with Lis Franc Foot, same injury as Elliot. Is that contagious? Now I'm glad I never was able to trade Greenwood!

W 5-0 Buf (5-11) 56-17 Off 435-88 turnovers 3-5 Holloway 18/30 225 3-2 Shakur 83+34 D Miles 2 P6 & PoW.

W 6-0 Det (6-10) 55-20 4P6! 3 TD Passes over 40 yards! Holloway 12/27 308 3-2 Shakur 39+64 then hurt Marshall 100 yds rec but dropped 4! Holloway and D Miles PoW.

I was getting worried again that I had done something to overpower the game. In retrospect, I think those just weren't very good teams.

W 7-0 Chi (7-9) 17-14 FG at 0:03 won the game! Shakur 94+28 1 TD. Not much to tell.

W 8-0 SF (13-3) 35-14 Stats about even, GB +1 on TO Diff, GB 4/4 in RZ vs SF 2/4. Holloway 20/27 268 3-1. I expected a better game from SF. WR1 Marshall and HB2 McNeal out. It was about here where I dropped my 3rd round HB project and got a journeyman FA.

At the halfway point I was ranked #2 behind the Colts. Here were my leaders:

Holloway 1937 17-12
Shakur 686 (2nd) 10 TD (1st)
Shakur 24 Rec 356 yds
Hester 3 Rec TD
McPeek 59 Tkl (10th) 6 Intc (2nd)
Whitman 4 sacks (in for Elliot since game 2)
D Miles 4 Def TD (1st) 1 Ret TD (1st)

W 9-0 Min (4-12) 66-10 IOTG! 4 Def TDs for GB. TO 4-9! Holloway 14/21 290 2-1 Shakur and MLB2 Dent out. FS Champion PoW.

W 10-0 Chi (7-9) 50-20 We got 4 TD in last 3:30! It was close for a long time! HB3 Dumas 69+70 3 TD PoW. Holloway 22/40 302 3-1Shakur and CB2 Lewis hurt.

Dumas was both a delight and a disappointment. I hired him out of the FA pool because I liked his more important (to me) stats and was surprised there was an 86 potential behind that 75 ovl. I figured I would let him ride the pine until his extension negotiation started. Once I had him for a longer contract I was going to move him up to #2 and see if I could develop him. Alas he wanted something silly like $26M for 6 years. That's way too much for a backup and I doubt I could ever get him very close to that potential.

Lewis was out for the season with a torn ACL. I wasn't charmed with the available CB in the FA pool so I revisited the option of moving Henderson from FS2 to CB4. When I moved him he came up an 82 vs. the 79 I had seen in training camp. So Henderson became my CB3 and I hired a new FS2. B Terry my 4th round pick moved from CB3 to CB2.

W 11-0 StL (5-11) 38-3 TO 0-4, HB1 & HB2 inactive, Holloway 20/28 265 3-0.

L 11-1 NYG (12-4) 21-35 TO 3-0, Giants 3/3 RZ We scratched our way back to down only 14 with 6:30 left and at our next opportunity fumbled to give the Giants a 21 point lead! Holloway 22/35 319 2-2.

I was relieved!

W 12-1 Ari (6-10) 27-3 3 2nd half def TDs by GB. TO 3-5, Shakur hurt, Miles 4 Intc & PoW.

W 13-1 NO (8-8) 24-21ot We gave up a TD at 1:28 in 2Q to make it 7-7 and then gave up a P6 @ 0:05! TO 5-2, Holloway 24/46 343 2-3 McNeal 81+36 2 TD and 3 Fum. here's the action packed finish:

Down 14-21 with 2:47 Holloway threw a pick. We held them to 3 and out and got the ball back with 1:10 and tied the game at 0:09. Lost flip. They fumbled the KO!! Reversed! NO got a couple of 1st downs and on a key 3rd down hit a long pass inside my 25, Holding! We got the ball and drove to a first down on the NO 17. I decided to run a couple more plays and we fumbled but we recovered! I ran one more play and hit a pass to the 5 yard line and then kicker the winner! That was FUN!

W 14-1 Mia (11-5) 38-14 Elliot was back but I held out Elliot and Shakur. They had the oldest HBs. Chester Taylor 38 speed 45 and Michael Pittman 43 speed 33! We out rushed them 141-2. Offense was 453-119. They are the team that got JJ Sunday in the draft. He went 15/38 164 1-1 while Holloway was 17/28 314 3-3. S McNeal 83+21 3 TD. We got 9 sacks! AJ Hawk had 4 sacks and a forced fumble & PoW.

W 15-1 NYJ (4-12) 24-21 held out Shakur and Elliot again. We gave up 2 TDs in the last 1:11 of the half. With the score tied we had two complete passes inside their 20 in the last 5:00. both times my receiver fumbled! Kicked the winning FG at 1:22. TO 4-5, penalties 5 to none!

We earned a bye and the top seed. after yet another week's rest it was time for Shakur to earn his money! Whittman was looking good and Elliot's health wasn't great so I let Whittman continue to start.

W 16-1 Atl (9-7) 60-31 It was closer than the score looked. I never saw a team pass so much. P Rivers was their QB and he started out great. After that first drive I was getting worried. As the half wore on I started to figure out how to defend them and we took a commanding 24-7 lead. Then they got a TD to close the first half and another to start the 2nd and we had a game for a while. GB got 3 P6s in the last 6;54 to make a tense game look like a blowout. TO 4-7 rushing 105-7 (they only ran the ball twice). Holloway 22/32 343 3-4, M Sledge 3 Intc, 2 TD, 6 tackles and PoW.

W 17-1 NYG (12-4) 35-32 NY scored first and led 24-21 at the end of 3Q. We took the lead midway 4th at 28-24. On the Giants next possession they fumbled and B Terry (PoW) scooped it up and ran 31 yards for a 35-24 lead! They scored a TD and 2 pt conversion at 3;27 to bring it to 35-32. They got the ball back with about 30 seconds and 0 TO on their 20 but they couldn't get it done! I could have run the clock out without punting from their 37 but I had an injury and had one of my timeouts used. Holloway was 18/34 292 3-2. We had 5 sacks! TO were 3-2.

On to the Super Bowl!!! Sadly Cleveland had upset Indy so I didn't get to test my team against the team ranked ahead of us all year. It looked like Cleveland might pass as much as Atlanta, Kevin Kolb was the MVP with his second consecutive 6000 yard passing season. Marcus Vess (remember him) was the RB of the year. he only ran for about 600 yards but he caught passes for 1200!

On the Wednesday before the big game my CB2 B Terry pulled a hamstring and was out of the game! He went on IR leaving me with 51 players on my roster. I debated the realism of adding a last minute FA to play CB4. I've never seen it but I don't know why you couldn't. I added JJ Jackson 75 ovl. I figured we would be in nickel or dime formations the whole game and I didn't want to go into it with only 7 DBs.

Strange, we were playing in a snowstorm in Tampa!

W 18-1 Cle (13-3) 49-28 Started lucky, they fumbled the opening KO and we ran it in for 6! We went up 21-7 at 0:54 in the half and then held them to a 3 and out. Trying to get a little more before half Holloway threw a P6. We had a TO our first possession in the 3Q and the score was tied at 21. (I feel like I've told that same sad story several times!)

From there we took control again and didn't let them come back. The strangest play of the game was what I'll call a sky pass. Holloway heaved the ball almost straight up from their 32 yard line. It looked like a punt. I watched the replay about 6 times. I swear it was above the first deck. Some views just showed the ball against the night sky! landed in the arms of my receiver in the back of the end zone!

TO were 5-6, Holloway 16/31 276 2-3, Shakur 139+35 2 TDs. JJ Jackson had 4 tackles, 1 deflection and 3 missed assignments.



My season leaders:

R Holloway 4283 33-24
M Shakur 830 10
C Hazelwood 49 877 8
M McPeek 118 tackles
AJ Hawk 12 sacks
D Miles 11 Intc, 8 Def TD, 1 Ret TD

My Pro Bowlers
HB M Shakur (3rd)
FB S Payton (1st)
FB C Stewart (2nd)
DE J Whittman (2nd)
OLB AJ Hawk (1st)
MLB M McPeek (1st)
CB D Miles (3rd)
FS A Champion (1st)
SS M Sledge (1st)

My Rookies

1 QB 88/92 R Holloway 4283 33-24 16 GS 959 DP
1 WR 85/89 C Hazelwood 49 877 8 7 553
2 DT 83/87 L Keefe IR 1 sack 3 73
3 RT 84/87 K Daily IR 4 GS 195 DP
3 HB 69/83 L Hester cut during season
3 RG 85/89 G Figgins 0 GS 74 DP
4 CB 83/89 B Terry 48 Tackles 3 sack 2 Intc 1 TD
6 WR 73/86 N Beck 18 243 0 0 GS 174 DP

I didn't resign DE J Gordon, OLB D Edwards, or DT A Greenwood even though they are good players playing well in backup roles.

I tried to resign TE3 L Simons to a low value no bonus two year deal. I think his offer went lower than my previous offer and nothing would display when you tried to negotiate and you couldn't leave until the time ran out1

I did resign MLB1 M McPeek, FS1 A Champion, MLB2 O Dent, RG1 S Cumberland and LT1 J Fulmer.

I'm not quite sure what to think of this season. I thought this team was as good as last years with a little better coaching which would rate to win 12 or maybe 13. I didn't play but 2 teams in the regular season that won 12 or more and I won one and lost one. That's fair but you would expect to get upset a few time just on the breaks.

At the end of the season the GM screen rated my team talent at 4th which is believable. I have no clue why it is so much higher than the 22nd I was rated just before the season started. A couple of my rookies moved up a lot, Holloway 80 to 88 and Hazelwood 75 to 85 but every team should have some rookies improving during the season.

If my talent is really 4th then this was a reasonable result given this weak schedule. I'm undecided what to do next. I may take a break for a while or I may wake up itching to start a new year. We'll see.

[lavadub12]

New year! I love reading this

[thedudescrew]

New year man! I love reading this, you are quite the story teller. Keep it up!