2013 OSFM: Seattle Mariners prospects and such

[seanjeezy]

Seeing a couple of threads already for prospect/org discussion for other teams, thought it would be a good idea to get the ball rolling for the M's as well...

Obviously we don't know what the specific changes to franchise mode are for '13, but there's a good bet the potential system is reworked so for the mean time this will mostly be discussion on who to include since there is obviously not enough space to include every interesting prospect...

OK lets run down the list of interesting guys:


Denny Almonte OF - D/C
Taylor Ard 1B - D/C+
Logan Bawcom RHP - C/C+
Jabari Blash OF - D-/C+
Matt Brazis RHP - D/C+
Andrew Carraway RHP D+/D+
Phillips Castillo OF - F-/C+
Vince Catricala 3B - C/C+
Ji-Man Choi 1B - D/C+
Edwin Diaz RHP - F/B
Joseph DeCarlo 3B - F+/C+
Roenis Elias P - D/C
Anthony Fernandez LHP - C/C
Nick Franklin INF - C/B+ DONE
Luis Gohara LHP - F/B+
Gabriel Guerrero OF - D/B+
Jabari Henry OF - F+/C
John Hicks C - D+/B DONE
Danny Hultzen LHP - C+/A- DONE
James Jones OF - D/C+
Patrick Kivlehan 3B - D-/B
Bobby LaFromboise LHP - C/C
Leon Landry OF - D/C+
Marcus Littlewood C - F+/C+
Timothy Lopes 2B - F+/B-
Jack Marder C - C-/B-
Tyler Marlette C - F+/C+
Francisco Martinez 3B - D+/B- DONE
Brandon Maurer RHP - C+/B+ DONE
Jamodrick McGruder 2B - F+/C
Yoervis Medina RHP - D+/C
Brad Miller SS - C-/B+ DONE
Julio Morban OF - D+/B
Gabriel Noriega SS - F/D+
Jochi Ogando RHP - D-/C
Dan Paolini 2B/1B - D/C+
James Paxton LHP - C+/B+
Tyler Pike LHP - D/B
Guillermo Pimentel OF - F+/C+
Steve Proscia 3B - D+/C DONE
Stefen Romero 2B - C+/B
Victor Sanchez RHP - C/B+
Jordan Shipers LHP - D-/C
Carson Smith RHP - C/B-
Christopher Taylor SS - C-/B-
Taijuan Walker RHP - C/A+
Mike Zunino C - C+/A DONE

2 A
1 A-
6 B+
8 B
4 B-
14 C+
9 C
1 C-
1 D+

Plus a bunch of filler

Link to the ratings and info spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...JeW9KWkE#gid=0

Players in bold have seen significant time in AA or above, so I feel like they need to be included. Here are the players on the 40-man that do not have any MLB service time:

Anthony Fernandez
Danny Hultzen
Bobby LaFromboise
Brandon Maurer
Yoervis Medina
Vinnie Catricala
Francisco Martinez
Julio Morban

Players on the 40-man who did not play in an MLB game last year and probably have to be recreated:

Chance Ruffin

So barring any more moves this offseason, the Mariners org will have 59 open spots in the game, so now lets try to figure out how to divvy up those precious spots:

31 SCEA players

25 MLB
6 AAA

On the list of interesting players, at least 9 should be in AAA next year, which means ~10 filler players are needed at the AAA level. Here are the interesting players most likely to be in AAA next year:

Logan Bawcom
Andrew Carraway
Vinnie Catricala
Nick Franklin
Danny Hultzen
Bobby LaFromboise
Brandon Maurer
James Paxton
Stefen Romero

Other candidates include (not likely IMO):

Anthony Fernandez
Yoervis Medina
Taijuan Walker
Mike Zunino

AA is where the bulk of interesting players will be, which is good since we want the upper levels to be as accurate as possible while at the same time including as many top prospects as we can:

Denny Almonte
Anthony Fernandez
Roenis Elias
John Hicks
James Jones
Leon Landry
Jack Marder
Francisco Martinez
Yoervis Medina
Brad Miller
Julio Morban
Gabriel Noriega
Steve Proscia
Carson Smith
Taijuan Walker
Mike Zunino

Once again, ~9 fillers are needed, and we'll find out who once the rosters are set.

There are 26 interesting players left for 15 slots:

Taylor Ard
Jabari Blash
Matt Brazis
Phillips Castillo
Ji-Man Choi
Edwin Diaz
Joseph DeCarlo
Luis Gohara
Gabriel Guerrero
Jabari Henry
Patrick Kivlehan
Marcus Littlewood
Timothy Lopes
Tyler Marlette
Ketel Marte
Jamodrick McGruder
Jochi Ogando
Dan Paolini
Martin Peguero
Tyler Pike
Dario Pizzano
Guillermo Pimentel
Victor Sanchez
Jordan Shipers
Chris Taylor
Dylan Unsworth

Of course, some of the older guys who should be in High Desert next year can be mixed in with the AA guys as well:

Taylor Ard
Matt Brazis
Ji-Man Choi
Dan Paolini
Chris Taylor
Jordan Shipers

Which would leave ~20 players for 15 spots... Now who to cut from this list:

Spoiler

Jabari Blash - Has the tools to break out at any time, still a project but if he cuts down on the whiffs he looks like he can be a decent ballplayer. Knows how to take a walk and has above average raw power. Quote from John Sickels:

Quote:

Blash has very impressive raw power. He got hold of a fastball in the first game, launching a no- doubt home run well over the left field fence. The ball made that "crack off the bat" sound and my initial response was "holy ****." The only two players I've seen hit balls that hard recently were Brett Lawrie in Omaha last year and Miguel Sano of Beloit earlier this season.

Phillips Castillo - One of the big bonus babies from a few years ago, hit well in the AZL in 11 but his propensity to whiff was exposed last year. He was only 18 so I'll cut him some slack, but potentially on the chopping block.

Edwin Diaz - 3rd round pick last year, already sits 92-95 and is very projectable (6' 2", 165 lbs), but extremely raw with spotty command and secondaries. Definitely a project but lots of upside.

Joseph DeCarlo - 2nd round pick last year, don't really know too much about him but be was signed for almost half a million over slot, apparently has a short, compact stroke (with some power potential), an above average arm, and is too big to stick at short (most likely moving to 3B, where he has a chance to be a good defender).

Luis Gohara - 16 year old lefty from Brazil, one of the best IFA pitchers from last year's crop. Not too much info out there, but apparently he was topping out at 94 during fall instructs, and has the makings of a plus slider and plus changeup. Showing up on quite a few top 20's this year, but I'm really hesitant to include him since he's so far away and 18 might be the minimum age again next year...

Gabriel Guerrero - Vlad's nephew, demolished the DSL last year and still looked good when he came stateside. Very similar approach to Vlad as well, also making the top 20 lists.

Jabari Henry - 18th round draft pick last year, don't know much about him but he put up decent numbers at Everett, although that's probably expected out of 21 year old college players. Shows some plate discipline and some power/speed potential.

Patrick Kivlehan - 4th round pick last year, and a really interesting prospect IMO. Last year was his first year of playing baseball since high school, and he's good enough to be the Northwest League MVP. Understandably he was very raw in the field and didn't have a very good approach at the plate, but still managed to hit .301/.373/.511 and his athleticism is top notch from being a football player.

Marcus Littlewood - 2nd round pick from 2010, last year was his first full year after switching to catcher from shortstop. Looked much better in his second go-round in the NWL, flashes a good eye and shows some pop to all fields. He's still fairly young and has some upside, but he needs to show more consistency

Timmy Lopes - 6th round pick last year, hit well in the AZL and was rewarded with a stint in the CAL league at the end of the year. Spray hitter with good speed, and solid defense at 2nd.

Tyler Marlette - 5th round pick in 2011, still very raw at this point but shows some power, a good arm, and good athleticism

Ketel Marte - Sounds like another Gabby Noriega type: outstanding glove but no bat to speak of.

Jamodrick McGruder - 9th round pick last year, although he didn't hit very much he showed a good eye and contact skills, and is an absolute burner. From John Sickels:

Quote:

McGruder was drafted in the ninth round last June from Texas Tech. I saw him play in college several times and he is a fun guy to watch. He’s very fast, with 70-speed on the 20-80 scale. Unlike many such players, he actually knows how to use this speed: he is a very dangerous baserunner and an effective, efficient stealer. He also has very good plate discipline, making him a nice fit at the top of the order. He plays with energy and has been a favorite of scouting sources on the Texas and Big 12 circuits for some time. Two problems limit McGruder’s prospect status: power and defense. Although he has some wiry strength, he doesn’t hit for power and it is an open question if his bat will work at higher levels. He’s a quick-twitch athlete, but is error-prone at second base. The Mariners used him some in the outfield at Everett, which puts a lot of pressure on his bat.

Jochi Ogando - Big kid (6' 5", 210) with a good fastball. This is from a couple years ago from baseball prospectus:

Quote:

This 18-year-old Dominican righty has impressive size and fastball velocity and showed three pitches, though his command is well below average. Standing at 6-foot-5 with the arms of a promising shot blocker, Ogando uses an over-the-top delivery to pump 92-95 mph fastballs, showing a big waist bend and good full-body execution. His curve is in the low 70s with a bubble in the break, but you can see the promise the 12-to-6 pitch shows if he can add velocity and vertical bite. Ogando located a few changeups in the 81 mph range with a deliberate release, but he has some nice fading action on the pitch itself. As I said, his command is well below average, and his arsenal is very raw, but you have to like Ogando’s size, the way his arm works, and the raw materials he brings to the table.

He cut down on the walks and had a decent season last year, still very young.


Martin Peguero - One of the other bonus babies from a couple years ago, terrible last year but still very young. That's pretty much it lol

Tyler Pike - Comp pick from last year's draft, very projectable lefty who put up big number in the AZL. Currently sits in the high 80's, but already shows a three pitch mix with the potential for above average command.

Dario Pizzano - 15th round pick last year, tore up the NWL and even played a few games with Clinton, but for a college bat that is somewhat expected I guess. Questions about his defense, but if he continues to hit he'll play.

Guillermo Pimentel - Another bonus baby from a couple of years ago, had a terrible April but was decent from May on. Has ridiculous raw power (probably 70+) but also a horrid approach like most Mariner prospects from LA, but if he can clean that up and tap into his power then watch out.

Victor Sanchez - Pitched in the NWL as a 17 year old and was one of the better pitchers in the league. He's gigantic for a 17 year old (6', 255 lbs) and as a result is pretty maxed out stuff wise, but he already possess a 4 pitch arsenal that includes a low 90's fastball, a plus changeup, and a slider and curveball that have the potential to be above average. Lots to love (literally lol) here.

Dylan Unsworth - Put up some good stats in the NWL last year, but apparently he throws in the mid 80's, so blech...

Here are my 5 proposed cuts:

Unsworth
Peguero
Marte
Ogando/Gohara (if the age limit is the same as last year )
Pizzano


I'll post grades once we get some more info on the changes to franchise, so in the meantime, Mariners fans (and even non Mariners fans) voice your opinions!!!

Edit:

So I projected that there would be about 13 filler players, but I forgot about the MLB players dropped from the 40-man, as well as the NRI's and the MiLB rule 5 guy:

Eric Ferris 2B
Jeremy Bonderman RHP
D.J. Mitchell RHP
Kameron Loe RHP
Jhonny Nunez RHP
Ronny Paulino C

So there's potentially 9 filler spots, which would come from this list:

Brandon Bantz C AAA
Jesus Sucre C AA
Rich Poythress 1B AA
Nate Tenbrink 3B AA
Leury Bonilla UT AAA
Scott Savastano IF AAA
Joseph Dunigan OF AA
Daniel Carroll OF AA
Forrest Snow RHP AAA
Jonathan Arias RHP AA
Danny Farquhar RHP AAA
Steven Hensley RHP AAA
Brian Moran LHP AAA
James Gillheeney LHP AA
Jandy Sena RHP AAA
Trevor Miller RHP A+
Tyler Burgoon RHP A+
Moises Hernandez RHP AA
Kurt Fleming OF A
Eric Niesen LHP AA
Brian Sweeney RHP AAA
Abraham Almonte OF AA

[yanksdaniel99]

That Gohara report and ranking in BP was quite interesting. Maybe it's the "shiny new guy" effect but I was thinking of him as a B, potentially higher if the progression system was fixed to more accurately represent real life.

[seanjeezy]

Quote: Originally Posted by yanksdaniel99

That Gohara report and ranking in BP was quite interesting. Maybe it's the "shiny new guy" effect but I was thinking of him as a B, potentially higher if the progression system was fixed to more accurately represent real life.

If that... far too early to slap a grade on him IMO and I strongly feel like he's better suited for '14, but if the Mariners have the balls to start him stateside a la Sanchez my expectations for him will go through the roof lol.

[yanksdaniel99]

Quote: Originally Posted by seanjeezy

If that... far too early to slap a grade on him IMO and I strongly feel like he's better suited for '14, but if the Mariners have the balls to start him stateside a la Sanchez my expectations for him will go through the roof lol.

Yea, I would think they start him stateside like Sanchez, in which case, he could really elevate his stock by the end of the year. As you know I tend to real conservative on potentials but the more I read and watch, the more I like what I see from him.

[seanjeezy]

Just for reference, here are John Sickels' grades for the top 20+ (for those unfamiliar with his grades, please read the primer):

Seattle Mariners Top 20 Prospects for 2013

The list and grades are a blending of present performance and long-term potential. Comments are welcome, but in the end all analysis and responsibility is mine. Full reports on all of players can be found in the 2013 Baseball Prospect Book. We are now taking pre-orders. Order early and order often!

QUICK PRIMER ON GRADE MEANINGS:

Grade A prospects are the elite. They have a reasonable chance of becoming stars or superstars. Almost all Grade A prospects develop into major league regulars, if injuries or other problems don't intervene. Note that is a major "if" in some cases.

Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role.

Grade C prospects are the most common type. These are guys who have something positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Some end up as role players or bench guys. Many don't make it at all.

Also note that there is diversity within each category. I'm a tough grader; Grade C+ is actually good praise, and some C+ prospects (especially at lower levels) turn out very well indeed.

Finally, keep in mind that all grades are shorthand. You have to read the full comment in the book for my full opinion about a player, the letter grade only tells you so much. A Grade C prospect in rookie ball could end up being very impressive, while a Grade C prospect in Triple-A is likely just a future role player.

ALL GRADES ARE PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE. No grade is final until January 10th, 2013

1) Mike Zunino, C, Grade A-: Complete catcher, either the best catching prospect in baseball or second-best behind Travis D'Arnaud. Power, patience, defense, great makeup. Does everything.

2) Taijuan Walker, RHP, Grade A-: Some slippage in his numbers, but that's forgivable for the youngest pitcher in the Double-A Southern League. Still has premium combination of fastball, breaking stuff, developing changeup, high upside.

3) Danny Hultzen, LHP, Grade B+: I will be honest, I am not comfortable with Hultzen's grade or his placement here and may revise it significantly before the book goes to press. I think it is a mistake to dismiss his Triple-A struggles too cavalierly. His command was just too poor at that level for us to ignore, especially given his past reputation and track record. I'm nosing around about this one and gathering more info and opinion, so stand by.

4) James Paxton, LHP, Grade B+: He still has occasional command troubles but the stuff is first class, love the 92-95 fastball and big-breaking curve. Number two starter upside. Very good season in Double-A (3.05 ERA, 110/54 K/BB in 106 innings).

5) Nick Franklin SS, Grade B+: I trust my eyes on this one, good tools across the board and the skills are in there. Is he a second baseman or a shortstop? I'd give him a chance at short. Needs another half-season in Triple-A following .243/.310/.416 line at Tacoma.

6) Brad Miller, SS, Grade B+: I am actually more confident in his bat than I am in Franklin's, but he's a year and a half older and that matters. Still, if anything Miller is underrated nationally. He can really hit (.320/.406/.476 in Double-A) and he has the range/arm for shortstop if he can cut down on routine errors.

7) Brandon Maurer, RHP, Grade B: Finally healthy and showed what he could do with four-pitch arsenal and mid-90s fastball, 3.20 ERA with 117/48 K/BB in 138 innings. Next stop, Triple-A. If he stays healthy, he's a number three starter.

8) Victor Sanchez, RHP, Grade B: Youngest pitcher in Northwest League held his own against older hitters at age 17 (3.18 ERA, 69/27 K/BB in 85 innings). Lacks physical projection at 6-0, 255, but already throws hard. Will truly dominate when breaking stuff improves.

9) Stefen Romero, 2B, Grade B: Not a tools guy, but just hits and hits and hits including .347/.392/.620 in Double-A. He's not bad at second base, but with other middle infield options around in this organization he may shift to a corner.

10) Carter Capps, RHP, Grade B-: Always tough to know how to grade relievers. Former catcher hits 99 MPH and reached the majors within a year of being drafted. Needs command refinements, but definite closer upside.

11) Stephen Pryor, RHP, Grade C+: Borderline B-. Like Capps, tough to grade. Stuff is almost as good as Capps, and he's another guy with closer potential if the command sharpens up a bit more.

12) Luis Gohara, LHP, Grade C+: At this point the C+ guys are interchangeable depending on what you want to emphasize, so please no whining about "you should have ranked #12 at #16 and #20 at #13." Gohara is a 16-year-old Brazilian lefty signed for $800,000 this past summer. He's enormously projectable and generated loud buzz in instructional league. He could turn into anything from a number one starter to an injured A-ball washout, but keep his name in mind. You might hear a lot about it next summer.

13) Gabriel Guerrero, OF, Grade C+: Vlad Guerrero's nephew tore up the Dominican Summer League, looked good in three weeks of rookie ball, and offers a similar package of tools to his uncle. That doesn't mean he will become his uncle, of course; bloodlines only take you so far (ask Preston Mattingly), but his upside clearly bears watching.

14) Patrick Kivlehan, 3B, Grade C+: Played four years of football at Rutgers, but despite years of rust he thrived when he went back to the diamond last spring, then hit .301/.373/.511 in the Northwest League. He strikes out a lot and is understandably raw for a college guy.

15) Leon Landry, OF, Grade C+: Toolsy LSU product acquired from Dodgers in Brandon League trade, runs well, gap power, good glove, hit well in California League. Profiles as fourth outfielder or platoon partner.

16) Julio Morban, OF, Grade C+: Cal League "breakouts" can't be fully trusted, especially at High Desert, but Morban looks like the best of the batch of power-hitting Latin American outfielders with bad plate discipline that the Mariners spent a lot of money on over the last few years.

17) Tyler Pike, LHP, Grade C+: Very projectable lefty was bought away from Florida State scholarship, showed three-pitch mix in rookie ball. Another mid-rotation upside arm.

18) Carson Smith, RHP, Grade C+: Dominated Arizona Fall League (2.40 ERA, 18/4 K/BB in 15 innings). Great slider, could follow Pryor and Capps into Mariners bullpen soon. Posted 2.90 ERA with 77/28 K/BB in 62 innings at High Desert, 54 hits, 2.34 GO/AO. Do you know how hard that is?

19) Anthony Fernandez, LHP, Grade C+: Four-pitch lefty posted 3.68 ERA with 79/14 K/BB in 88 innings at High Desert. Do you know how hard that is? He looked good in Double-A too (3.32 ERA with 55/24 K/BB in 76 innings). Not overpowering but knows how to pitch.

20) John Hicks, C, Grade C+: Very athletic catcher hit .312/.351/.472. It was at High Desert though, so don't assume that will hold. Stole 22 bases, threw out 54% of runners. Has strike zone issues and needs to improve blocking, but an intriguing player.


OTHER GRADE C+: Logan Bawcom, RHP; Vince Catricala, 3B; Timothy Lopes, 2B; Jack Marder, C-2B

OTHERS: Taylor Ard, 1B; Jabari Blash, OF; Matt Brazis, RHP; Jin-Man Choi, 1B; Edwin Diaz, RHP; Josephy DeCarlo, 3B; Roenis Elias, LHP; Jabari Henry, OF; James Jones, OF; Bobby LaFramboise, LHP; Marcus Littlewood, C; Tyler Marlette, C; Jamodrick McGruder, 2B; Yoervis Medina, RHP, Guillermo Pimentel, OF; Steve Proscia, INF; Jordan Shipers, LHP; Chris Taylor, SS; Carlos Triunfel, INF

[rjackson]

I think that you did really really good here. Zunino has been nothing but unbelievable and he is one of maybe 10 players I'd give an A, but I'd make it a straight A--he's a probably Allstar and possibly a Hall of Fame guy.

At the same token, I like Hultzen's stuff and he's been great, only having control problems at AAA. Plus, I love his stuff. I rate him higher than Walker to be honest. That said, I think that you have them at the popular ratings (though I would flip flop them).

Paxton, though, ugh. I don't see him ever being more than an okay #3, seriously. I think he is overrated. I'd go B- but I'll take a mid B.

Franklin, I don't know. He is a high B as a 2B but only a mid B at best as a SS. I think that his cohort Miller is a mid-high B at SS. Franklin has a great stroke, I really like the mechanics of his swing--he appears to be coached very well from a young age.

The rest is spot on in my opinion, really good read and thank you for reiterating the ratings so as to not have too many A's as we did last year. I'll be putting it in every thread!!! : )

[seanjeezy]

I haven't done any grading yet lol, these are straight copy/past from John Sickels, basically for reference... I'm holding off on assigning potential grades until the new system is further explained, plus I'm waiting for the rest of the Mariners OSFM crew to weigh in with their input.

Sickels is a notoriously hard grader, his grades are usually a tick below what you see in the Show... An A from him is the same thing as an A+ in the Show, A- is an A, B+ is an A-, etc.

[rjackson]

Quote: Originally Posted by seanjeezy

I haven't done any grading yet lol, these are straight copy/past from John Sickels, basically for reference... I'm holding off on assigning potential grades until the new system is further explained, plus I'm waiting for the rest of the Mariners OSFM crew to weigh in with their input. Sickels is a notoriously hard grader, his grades are usually a tick below what you see in the Show... An A from him is the same thing as an A+ in the Show, A- is an A, B+ is an A-, etc.

Well damn! That was in the first sentence of that post, too! I guess me and Sickels are of the same mold.