Cubs Player Potential Discussion: 2013 OSFM roster

[jnavarro]

This may be a little early, but I would like to start discussing player potentials for the 2013 OSFM rosters. I will not be doing the Cubs roster, but it might help whoever does to have a chance to see some discussion on their system. We don’t really know how progression will work this year so I’m basing my grades on last year’s system. Here are my thoughts on how it shakes out. Please feel free to discuss. I would like to see some productive progress and no one is going to hurt my feelings.


1. Javier Baez : A+ His ceiling is awesome. If they build a “risk” factor in this year it should be high for Baez but on this boom or bust prospect we have to allow for the boom.

2. Jorge Soler: A Should be a good one.

3. Albert Almora: A- He is as close to a sure thing as we can get. Low risk.

4. Jose Paniagua: A-/B+ A new name to many, but scouts love him and he should move fast. Tempted to give him an A.

5. D. Underwood: B+ A second rounder with upside.

6. Christian Villanueva: B His CAP last year was great and I wouldn’t change much

7. Dan Vogelbach: B Also perfect last year. Great power, not much else. Whoever did the CAP last year nailed it.

8. Junior Lake: B The ultimate high risk guy. Deserves better than the C- he got last year but could bust.

9. J. Candelario B Again, perfect last year. Keep it the same. A great candidate for a breakout prospect if the new system lets us build that in.

10. B-/C+ players: D. Maples, A. Cabrera, L. Watkins, Alcantara, Zych

I can’t wait to hear what others think of this system. The Cubs have made huge strides in their system with the new management and tons of trades and international signings. I think they will be around 10th when systems are ranked but I hope I'm not being a homer on that.

[iRepIndiana]

Quote: Originally Posted by jnavarro

This may be a little early, but I would like to start discussing player potentials for the 2013 OSFM rosters. I will not be doing the Cubs roster, but it might help whoever does to have a chance to see some discussion on their system. We don’t really know how progression will work this year so I’m basing my grades on last year’s system. Here are my thoughts on how it shakes out. Please feel free to discuss. I would like to see some productive progress and no one is going to hurt my feelings. 1. Javier Baez : A+ His ceiling is awesome. If they build a “risk” factor in this year it should be high for Baez but on this boom or bust prospect we have to allow for the boom. 2. Jorge Soler: A Should be a good one. 3. Albert Almora: A- He is as close to a sure thing as we can get. Low risk. 4. Jose Paniagua: A-/B+ A new name to many, but scouts love him and he should move fast. Tempted to give him an A. 5. D. Underwood: B+ A second rounder with upside. 6. Christian Villanueva: B His CAP last year was great and I wouldn’t change much 7. Dan Vogelbach: B Also perfect last year. Great power, not much else. Whoever did the CAP last year nailed it. 8. Junior Lake: B The ultimate high risk guy. Deserves better than the C- he got last year but could bust. 9. J. Candelario B Again, perfect last year. Keep it the same. A great candidate for a breakout prospect if the new system lets us build that in. 10. B-/C+ players: D. Maples, A. Cabrera, L. Watkins, Alcantara, Zych I can’t wait to hear what others think of this system. The Cubs have made huge strides in their system with the new management and tons of trades and international signings. I think they will be around 10th when systems are ranked but I hope I'm not being a homer on that.

I agree with most except Lake. He has IMO the highest ceiling and could be better than most project. I also agree the low C he got was wrong. I thought he should have been a high C. Keep in mind with him having a good chance of being a big bust I would like to see him at a high C. He doesn't deserve a B until he proves his worth a little more.

[hjgilber]

Quote: Originally Posted by iRepIndiana

I agree with most except Lake. He has IMO the highest ceiling and could be better than most project. I also agree the low C he got was wrong. I thought he should have been a high C. Keep in mind with him having a good chance of being a big bust I would like to see him at a high C. He doesn't deserve a B until he proves his worth a little more.

Lake definitely does not have the ceiling of Baez or Soler.

[hjgilber]

Javier Baez, SS: A/A+. Closer to an A due to high risk, but ceiling is crazy high.

Albert Almora, OF: High B+/A-. Low risk, with high ceiling. Wil likely be a good player with a decent shot at becoming a great player.

Jorge Soler, OF: A-/A. High ceiling, could be a stud. Not too much risk, but higher than Almora.

Dan Vogelbach, 1B: B+. Crazy bat.

Dillon Maples, RHP: B/B+. Huge ceiling, high risk though due to injury history.

Christian Villanueva, 3B: B-. Should be solid, but nothing more. Great D with limitations due to average bat.

Matt Szczur, OF: B-. Made strides this year with discipline. Solid D, could really break out next year, but could also end up a 4th OF.

Pierce Johnson, RHP: B-/B. Nice potential, could be a solid middle of the rotation pitcher. Risk due to injury history.

Gioskar Amaya, 2B: B-. Nice bat, could break out.

Marco Hernandez, SS: B-. Solid prospect, another break out candidate, wouldn't cry over a C+, but a B- would be my take.

Duane Underwood, RHP: B+. Near ace ceiling, but so far away from the show, he could end up being nothing.

Junior Lake, SS: B-. High ceiling, is starting to puts things together but there is still a lot of work left for him. Could be Cubs version of Ben Zobrist (Super sub, has been playing OF in winter leagues). Someone less convinced by his progress could easily give him a C+.

Jeimer Candelario, 3B: B. Nice potential bat, hope he can stick at third because there has been lots of talk about him possibly moving off of third due to D issues. Bat would have less value if he moved, but could still be useful. Sticks at third, then he's a solid B.

Juan Carlos Paniagua, RHP: B/B+. Could end up being an A by next year, arguably the best pitching prospect in the system after Vizcaino.

Paul Blackburn, RHP: B-. Solid prospect, less ceiling than some of the other pitchers but could end up being a respectable 3/4.

Arismendy Alcantara, SS: C+/B-. Under rated, could get a serious bump if he has a big year in 2013.

Barret Loux, RHP: B-. Should be at least a decent mid-bottom of the rotation pitcher.

Alberto Cabrera, RHP: C+. Hard thrower, 7/8/9 inning role potential.

Logan Watkins, 2B/OF: C/C+. Had a nice year, could be a super sub.

Ronald Torreyes, 2B: C+. BABIP screwed him in the ***. Great contact hitter. Breakout candidate for me next year.

Trey McNutt, RHP: C/C+. Former highly thought of prospect can still end up being useful as a middle reliever if he figures it out.

Shawon Dunston, OF: C. Legacy player, too early to tell if he could end up being anything useful.

Jae-Hoon Ha, OF: C. Good defense, player to keep an eye on next year.

Tony Zych, RHP: C+/B-. Could end up being a useful end of the bullpen pitcher.

[ilstu24]

I know its nitpicking, but I don't think Baez should be an A+. Surely an A in my book, but a player with no sure fire defensive home really shouldn't be an A plus.

[ilstu24]

Other than that I agree with hjgilbers post. The other potentials sound good. Cubs should have a system that slides somewhere toward the bottom of the top 10, likely 7-10 range, and I think those ratings reflect that.

[ilstu24]

I would go: Almora (A) Can be a surefire difference maker. Has all 5 tools with an advanced hit tool. I see him as an Adam Jones type of player. Above average at everything, but great at nothing. Extremely valuable player.

Baez (A) Kinda covered it above. Can absolutely rake, should hit 30 homers a season in his prime. I see him as a 3B, with maybe a slightly above average glove eventually. Foot speed and range will prevent him from playing SS. Has cannon though.

Soler (A) Prototypical RF. Monster arm and power. Runs well. Surprisingly good approach for a Cuban player, which goes against the mold there. Should hit 25-30 homers in prime. Should be ready quickly, but Cubs wont rush. Almora-Soler-Baez is a scary 2-3-4.

Vizcaino (B+) Likely already in the game, Cubs are using him as a SP next season. I don't see it. Likely just trying to develop secondary stuff which is behind his ML plus fastball. Curve is good. Changeup not so much. Carries big injury risk, which is why I personally can't make him an A. (I'm also really stingy on A potential ratings for pitchers though). If put in pen THIS season I see him as dynamic 7th-8th inning guy. Closer of the future.

Vogelbach (B) Fat. Can also hit. Has more than just big power. Strictly an offense player though. No speed. Plays 1st only because there is nowhere else for him to play. Bat only prospect. NOT JUST POWER ONLY though. Think 80% of Prince Fielder. Those are the numbers he should put up.


Pierce Johnson (B-) Injury concerns stop him short of being a B for me. Sits 90-93, but only 170 lbs. Should fill out and gain even more velocity. Command concerns, but very raw for a college prospect. Good FB and CRV, CNG needs work. Potential 3 for me. Could be a 2 if he gains added velocity like I think he may.

Villanueva (B-) Should be an average MLB starting 3rd Baseman. Great glove and arm. Should hit about .275ish w/ 12-15 homers annually. Also should be a good OBP guy. Your typical guy that will fly under the radar but become a solid ML regular, although w/ Baez in town it likely wont be in Chicago. Loses value if moved off of 3rd. Likely not the type of player you move Baez to LF for. Future is in another org.

Duane Underwood (B-/C+) Raw. Big potential fastball. The epitome of a lottery ticket. Could develop into a potential number 2 SP if everything breaks right. Can't ignore potential upside.

Brett Jackson (C+/C) Not very high on him. Don't see him ever making enough contact to hit for power. Good OBP he showed in minors might not ever show because MLB pitchers wont have to be as careful with him; can challenge him with your best. I see him as a 4th OF. Can play all 3 spots. Good Pop off bench, which is desired.

Dillon Maples (C) I like this guy. Great fastball. Outstanding 12/6 hammer. Command issues though. Can miss bats, a lot of them if he gets it together. I see someone who can be a 2/3 SP soon. He should have a big year next year.


Juan Carlos Panigua (B-) So far away from majors. Still question marks on age. Good FB/SLD combo.

Junior Lake (C) Athletic. I see him as potential utility guy for Cubs. Blocked by numerous guys in front of him. Should be a solid contributor to MLB bench in 2014-15.

Zych (B-) Potential late inning reliever. Good FB/SLD combo.

McNutt (C) Average middle reliver to me. Still contributor though

Marco Hernandez (C+) Great defender up the middle, unlike other Cub MI prospects. Good Speed. Batting average dependent player bc he wont walk much. BABIP will prop him up or crush him.

Jeimer Candelario (B-/C+) Years away. 18 yr old 3b. Might have to move to LF, which means promising bat becomes less so.

Matt Szczur (C) Not particularly high on him. Won't ever start for a contender regularly. Lots of speed. Good defneder. Bat is questionable though. 5th OF for me.


System has enormous depth. Probably another 15-20 C type players.

[rjackson]

Please remember that a B is a solid, everyday player while an A is an All-Star and A+ is a frickin' Hall of Fame player! Also, too many A's in last year's OSFM caused too many early retirements. You've got to be stingy with those A and even B potentials. Besides, it isn't about ceilings because in the video game, potentials don't get changed all that much so the aim should be for a realistic projection.

I don't mean to be preachy, but this is stuff that I don't want to see screwed up again because to us baseball fans, every prospect is projected to be an All-Star in our eyes, we just can't help it. Maybe we shouldn't allow anyone to do their own favorite teams just to keep players from getting rated to high.