Analysis of "Player Potential"

[Synchromesh]

I have a bit of free time on my hands so I am going to begin simming through seasons to get a better idea how a player's "potential" rating affects their overall development.

Some things I am planning on looking at / will continue to look at on my second SIM through 15 seasons are:

- Whether or not player position alters the affects of potential (Example: Does a potential rating of 65 affect both PG and C the same?

- How age affects potential, from my first SIM (see below) it appears that an older player with higher potential will cap out at a lower overall rating than a younger player with less potential.

- How potential affects contract offers in free agency.


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Here's a summary of what I did to arrive at the chart below:

- Created a custom draft class.
- Created 9 players with an overall rating of 60.
- Each of the 9 players were assigned a potential rating (25, 35, 45, 55, 65, 75, 85, 95, 100)
- Simulated 15 seasons recording each player's overall rating at the beginning of each year.

The collected data can be seen by clicking the link below:

http://i51.tinypic.com/30n9a3r.jpg



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*One of the mistakes I made in my first SIM was that I did not set all players to the same age.

*I also did not control all 30 teams so as you can see some players wound up out of the league before 15 years had passed (which is realistic but ultimately threw a kink in my SIM run as I ended with an incomplete data set).

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If there are any other things that anyone wants me to look at while I SIM let me know.

Ultimately I'm leaning towards re-assigning every player's potential rating so that we can get realistic player development and contract offers in offline Association.

[youALREADYknow]

If you could just create these players all at the same age, then it would be great information for the entire community. I'll keep my eye on this thread for your next sim results. Thanks for sharing!

[Synchromesh]

Will do.

I might actually get started on this today, I'm just trying to figure out how to best SIM through this.

I'm fairly certain that position and potential don't have any correlation, but there's a part of me that wants to double-check and see if that's the case...

[youALREADYknow]

Quote: Originally Posted by Synchromesh

Will do. I might actually get started on this today, I'm just trying to figure out how to best SIM through this. I'm fairly certain that position and potential don't have any correlation, but there's a part of me that wants to double-check and see if that's the case...

As long as you have multiple people at the same position each year then the data can be evaluated to see whether position really matters.

Also a few other questions that come to mind:

1. Are you keeping height/weight the same for players at the same position?
2. Are specific ratings the same or different between players? For example, I'd imagine that a scoring SG might last longer and get more ratings bumps through their career than a defensive SG.

[Synchromesh]

Hmm good points / questions... This is going to take a little longer than I thought.

[bedwardsroy19]

Quote: Originally Posted by Synchromesh

Hmm good points / questions... This is going to take a little longer than I thought.

To truly figure out what they are thinking, it will take some serious time...

But if you could do it I know roster makers would be very very appreciative!

[Synchromesh]

Quote: Originally Posted by bedwardsroy19

To truly figure out what they are thinking, it will take some serious time... But if you could do it I know roster makers would be very very appreciative!

Yeah I'm still going to give it a shot, I just needed some time to pause and think. So far I'm through 5 years this time around, haven't taken a time to look at the data and see where the trendlines are going but one interesting thing I noticed was that when I changed my player's height from 5'3'' to 6'5'' his overall rating took a jump of 1 point (and while I have to double check this I don't believe any of his attribute or ability values changed!)

[Synchromesh]

New spreadsheet, will upload it either tonight or early tomorrow.