Coach Run/Pass Balance

[bhbdawg]

First off, let me say this is my first post after reading for a while. You guys do a nice job with the rosters each year, and as much as I'm impressed with the work put in, I'm even more impressed with the way you manage to work cohesively with one another. Well done.

How much care goes into deciding a coach's run/pass balance? How much does it affect gameplay?

If you're going to use actual game-data, I would imagine their play selection on 1st down would be the most reliable. After all, if a team is good on 1st down, they'll be running more often on 3rd, leading to more runs overall. 1st down is a better indicator of a team's true offensive preferences.

As food for thought, here are SEC #'s for the current lineup, using each coordinator's most recent season (although 3 year averages would probably work better) (I had no data for Vandy's OC so I used Franklin's tendencies from Maryland, and Spurrier is his own OC so I listed him here):

SEC:
Jim McElwain, Alabama: 41% pass
Garrick McGee, Arkansas: 51% pass
Gus Malzahn, Auburn: 23% pass
Charlie Weis, Florida: 48% pass
Mike Bobo, Georgia: 43% pass
Randy Sanders, Kentucky: 43% pass
Steve Kragthorpe, LSU: 39% pass
Les Koenning, Mississippi St: 26% pass
David Lee, Ole Miss: 28% pass
Steve Spurrier Jr, South Carolina (also Steve Spurrier): 36% pass
Jim Cheney, Tennessee: 44% pass
John Donovan, Vanderbilt (also James Franklin): 38% pass

Big Ten:
Jim Bollman, Ohio St - 34% pass
Paul Chryst, Wisconsin - 28% pass
Galen Hall, Penn St - 44% pass
Paul Petrino, Illinois - 22% pass
Gary Nord, Purdue - 37% pass
Kevin Wilson, Indiana - 48% pass
Tim Beck, Nebraska - 19% pass
Dan Roushar, Michigan St - 36% pass
Ken O'Keefe, Iowa - 38% pass
Mike McCall, Northwestern - 38% pass
Al Borges, Michigan - 38% pass
Matt Limegrover - Minnesota - 27% pass

Big XII:
Jay Norvell, Oklahoma - 48% pass
Tom Rossley, Texas A&M (also Mike Sherman) - 43% pass
Bryan Harsin, Texas - 47% pass
Todd Monken*, Oklahoma St - 40% pass
David Yost, Missouri - 46% pass
Dana Dimel, Kansas St - 28% pass
Neal Brown, Texas Tech - 56% pass
Randy Clements, Baylor (also Art Briles) - 46% pass
Tom Herman, Iowa St - 38% pass
Chuck Long, Kansas - 37% pass

ACC
James Coley, FSU - 41% pass
Chad Morris, Clemson - 34% pass
Dana Bible, NC St - 50% pass
Kevin Rogers, Boston College - 28% pass
Gary Crowton, Maryland - 32% pass
Steed Lobotzke, Wake Forest - 37% pass
Bryan Stinespring, Virginia Tech - 30% pass
Jedd Fisch, Miami - 43% pass
John Shoop, UNC - 41% pass
Brian Bohannon, Georgia Tech (also Paul Johnson)- 17% pass
Bill Lazor, Virginia - 43% pass
Kurt Roper, Duke - 44% pass

Pac-12
Mark Helfrich, Oregon - 38% pass
Pep Hamilton, Stanford - 33% pass
Danny Langsdorf, Oregon St (also Mike Riley) - 35% pass
Doug Nussmeier, Washington - 42% pass
Jim Michalczik, California - 43% pass
Todd Sturdy, Washington St - 41% pass
Kennedy Pola, USC - 47% pass
Noel Mazzone, Arizona St - 43% pass
Mike Johnson, UCLA - n/a
Norm Chow, Utah - 36% pass
Seth Littrell, Arizona - 47% pass
Eric Bieniemy, Colorado - n/a

Big East

Calvin Magee, Pittsburgh - 31% pass
Todd Fitch, USF - 36% pass
Dana Holgorsen, West Virginia - 50% pass
Mike Bajakian, Cincinnati - 46% pass
George DeLeone, Connecticut - 34% pass
Frank Cignetti, Rutgers - 36% pass
Mike Sanford, Louisville - 35% pass
Nathaniel Hackett, Syracuse - 38% pass

MWC
Brent Pease, Boise State - 42% pass
Justin Fuente, TCU - 30% pass
Blane Morgan, Air Force - 17% pass
Pat Meyer, Colorado State (also Steve Fairchild) - 43% pass
Andy Ludwig, San Diego St - 38% pass
Gregg Brandon, Wyoming - 39% pass
David Reaves, New Mexico - 38% pass
Rob Phenicie, UNLV - 35% pass

C-USA
Jason Phillips, Houston - 46% pass
Greg Peterson, Tulsa - 38% pass
Dan Morrison, SMU (also June Jones) - 54% pass
John Reagan, Rice - 30% pass
Dan Dodd, Tulane - 44% pass
Aaron Price, UTEP - 44% pass
Blake Anderson, Southern Miss - 40% pass
Charlie Taaffe, UCF - 26% pass
Lincoln Riley, East Carolina - 57% pass
Kim Helton, UAB - 46% pass
Bill Legg, Marshall - 50% pass
Eric Price, Memphis - 39% pass

WAC
Cameron Norcross, Nevada (also Chris Ault) - 27% pass
Jeff Grady, Fresno State - 39% pass
Nick Rolovich, Hawaii - 65% pass
Tony Franklin, Louisiana Tech - 39% pass
Steve Axman, Idaho - 52% pass
John DeFelippo, San Jose St - 48% pass
Dave Baldwin, Utah State - 33% pass
Doug Martin, New Mexico St - 44% pass

Independent
Charley Molnar, Notre Dame - 48% pass
Brandon Doman, BYU - 36% pass
Ivin Jasper, Navy - 12% pass
Ian Shields, Army - 15% pass

MAC
Matt Campbell, Toledo - 31% pass
Ryan Cubit, Western Michigan (also Bill Cubit) - 52% pass
Matt Canada, Northern Illinois - 47% pass
Mike Cummings, Central Michigan - 45% pass
Rich Skrosky, Ball State - n/a
Ken Karcher, Eastern Michigan - 29% pass
Tim Albin, Ohio - 29% pass
Scot Loeffler, Temple (also Steve Addazio) - 35% pass
John Klacik, Miami, OH (also Don Treadwell) - 36% pass
Brian Rock, Kent State - 37% pass
Alex Wood, Buffalo - 49% pass
Warren Ruggiero, Bowling Green - 52% pass
John Latina, Akron - 39% pass

Sun Belt
Kenny Edenfield, Troy - 46% pass
Scott Satterfield, FIU - 30% pass
Steve Farmer, ULM - 38% pass
Willie Simmons, Middle Tennessee - 33% pass
Grant Heard, Arkansas State (also Hugh Freeze) - 45% pass
Mike Canales, North Texas - 29% pass
Darryl Jackson, Florida Atlantic - 38% pass
Zach Azzanni, WKU - 31% pass
Jay Johnson, Louisiana - 37% pass

NOTE: When you are editing the Run Offense/Pass Offense button, you are moving the slider TOWARD whichever you're wanting to do more of. An easier way of saying this is that the white part of the slider represents pass %. For example, the default setting has Georgia Tech at 25% pass (because the slider is moved far away from the pass side).

EA's terminology here is confusing, but if you're implementing my sliders, my #'s should be represented by the WHITE bar, not the GREY...

That should settle any future confusion.

Also, you should edit all HC's to match the OC's, IMO...

If you notice any of the following on my list where both apply, let me know:
1. The HC calls all the offensive plays in real life
AND
2. I used data for the OC from when he was under a different HC.

[bhbdawg]

If there's any interest, I'll post others' ratios...

[adamcsay]

not to discredit your hard work because i know it's appreciated but there is actually a spreadsheet showing all this info and more.

https://spreadsheets.google.com/spre...CLqZ_vYK#gid=0

credit goes to solidice over at the gaming tailgate.

[bhbdawg]

That's awesome, and very impressive, but the downside is they use all plays, which can distort the true intentions of the coach, because it includes 3rd down decisions, which need context.

Also, it's affected by defense - if a team's defense stinks, even if their preference is to run the ball, they'll find themselves passing a lot to try and keep up.

Some of their stats seem to way pretty far off. Eastern Michigan had 511 rush attempts to only 282 passing last year, but they have EMU's pass frequency at 64%. David Cutcliffe of Duke prefers to run the ball more than they throw, but they sometimes don't have the luxury thanks to their defense.

The spreadsheet listed Duke at 44% rushing & 56% passing. But on 1st downs, it's actually reversed - Duke ran the ball 56% of the time. And Duke would probably continue to run 56% of the time IF they could do it well.

I suppose my question is, shouldn't the run/pass ratio be an ideal hypothetical? As in, if this coach has the right personnel and a good defense, what would his ratio be? That's how I've always taken it.

Thanks for the link, though. They've done a lot of work on a lot of different things, and it's very impressive. I just think their methodology on the pass/rush %'s was a little lazy (and that's understandable when you're trying to present many different bits of information) and too context-based.

[atlplayboy23]

Hey man post what you have it always good to have multiple ideas on this situation and the community can choose what is better.

[bhbdawg]

I'll just have to go conference by conference.

Big 10 coming next...

[ActLikeYouCrow]

for sim purposes the overall % has been the best way in the past. a 1st down based balance system might work better in games

[bhbdawg]

B10:

Jim Bollman, OSU - 66% run, 34% pass
Paul Chryst, UW - 72% run, 28% pass
Galen Hall, PSU - 56% run, 44% pass
Paul Petrino, Illinois - 78% run, 22% pass
Gary Nord, Purdue - 63% run, 37% pass
Kevin Wilson, IU* - 52% run, 48% pass
Tim Beck, Nebraska** - 81% run, 19% pass
Dan Roushar, MSU*** - 64% run, 36% pass
Ken O'Keefe, Iowa - 62% run, 38% pass
Mike McCall, NU - 62% run, 38% pass
Al Borges, Mich - 62% run, 38% pass
Matt Limegrover - Minn - 73% run, 27% pass


*Indiana's new co-OC's don't have very much experience, and there's a chance Wilson will still call plays. At the very least, it should reflect his style of offense, so I'm using his Oklahoma stats.

**No idea on Beck, as it's his first year, but he worked under Shawn Watson, so the offense will probably be pretty similar, so I'm using Shawn Watson's #'s.

***MSU's OC left of his own accord and was replaced from within, so I'm expecting more of the same. Using Don Treadwell's '10 stats here.

I tested some of these against what I considered their best games of last year, to see if they jived with what the coaches would do when everything was like clockwork:

- Chryst, who I have at 72/28, was 73/27 vs. Northwestern and 69/31 against Indiana.

- Bollman, who I have at 66/34, was 66/34 against Purdue and 64/36 against Minnesota.

- Hall, who I have at 56/44, was 56/44 against Indiana, but also had more variance than most - throwing a lot against Florida & running a lot against Temple - presumably because they didn't have as many easy wins as some other teams.

- Petrino (78/22) was 73/27 against Penn State and a whopping 83/17 against Indiana.

- Nord (63/37) had no easy games to even test...

- Wilson (52/48) was 49/51 vs. Florida State, 60/40 vs. Iowa St.

- Nebraska (81/19) was 83/17 vs. Washington and 81/19 vs. Kansas State last year.

- MSU (64/36) was 61/39 vs. Wisconsin, 62/38 vs. Michigan.

- O'Keefe (62/38) was 60/40 vs. Ball State.

- McCall (62/38) was 58/42 vs. Rice and 65/35 vs. Illinois St.

- Borges (62/38) was 63/37 vs. UNLV and 64/36 vs. Navy.

- Limegrover (73/27) was 68/32 vs. Akron and 71/29 vs. EMU.

So, my hypothesis tests out pretty well - when these offensive coordinators aren't bothered by difficult games and can run the O as they'd like, their overall play selection resembles their 1st down play selection.