Seattle Mariners 2011 OS Full Minors Discussion

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I am making this thread with the hope that I receive some feedback on the Mariners' Minor League system, as I am helping with the OS Full Minors roster project.

My goals are simple; to get the best replication of the M's system that I can. I'm not looking to overrate their system by any means.

Here is what I have so far... These will change as I think I have too many 'B' rated prospects.

'A' Potential (3):

Michael Pineda, RHSP
Dustin Ackley, 2B
James Paxton, LHSP

I was torn on Paxton, to be honest. He has very good stuff and was a great college pitcher. He's a lefty, and that makes him more valuable... But I am leaning toward bumping him down to a 'B' potential rating. I am comfortable with Pineda and Ackley as A's, but in my opinion they are probably the only 'A' rated guys in the whole system -- Franklin is close, but I think a 'B' potential rating is more accurate. Some think that Taijuan Walker might deserve an 'A' rating, but I'm not in that camp. He is very raw and being 19 and having seven professional innings under his belt, I think it would be radically premature to give him an A. I'm good with him at a B for now.

'B' Potential (16):

Nick Franklin, SS
Taijuan Walker, RHSP
Marcus Littlewood, SS
Carlos Triunfel, SS
James Jones, RF
Johermyn Chavez, RF
Mauricio Robles, LHSP
Blake Beavan, RHSP
Ji-Man Choi, C
Esteilon Peguero, 2B
Brandol Perez, LHSP
Josh Fields, RHRP
Vicente Campos, RHSP
Josh Lueke, RHRP
Guillermo Pimentel, CF/LF
Philips Castillo, LF

Too many 'B' potentials at this point. Josh Fields is not a 'B' guy, nor is Brandol Perez (too young to gauge, velocity is questionable). I love Triunfel and he's still only 20, but it just doesn't seem like he's getting better. Campos is not a 'B' yet. The guys in bold above are definite 'B' guys, but guys like Beavan, Robles, Jones and the rest are probably closer to a 'C' potential rating. I don't see Beavan being better than a back-end starter, and the same goes for Robles.

'C' Potential (16):

Erasmo Ramirez, RHSP
Rich Poythress, 1B/3B
Ramon Morla, 3B
Ivan Ramirez, C
Nate Tenbrink, 3B/LF
Richard Vargas, RHSP
Stephen Pryor, RHRP
Tyler Burgoon, RHRP
Tom Wilhelmsen, RHSP/RP
Anthony Vasquez, LHSP
Kyle Seager, 2B
Steven Hensley, RHSP
Yoervis Medina, RHSP
Forrest Snow, RHRP
Julio Morban, CF
Steven Baron, C

That's a lot of C's. I think Baron is closer to a 'D' considering he has very, very little offensive upside (think Rob Johnson). Defensively, he's good, but probably not enough to garner a C. Vasquez could be a 'B' guy, as could Seager, Tenbrink and Poythress (though not likely).

'D' Potential (7):

Jorden Merry, RHRP
Tyler Blandford, RHRP
Edward Paredes, LHRP
Brian Moran, LHRP
Alfredo Morales, CF
Jabari Blash, RF
Vince Catricala, 1B/3B

The only possible upgrade that I see here could be Blandford. I see some downgrades, such as Merry and Morales. These are marginal prospects with little upside, in my opinion.

'F' Potential (2):

Matthew Cerione, LF
Mickey Wiswall, 1B

Looking at this as objectively as I can, I think I really rated the Mariners' system too high. John Sickels has the M's ranked #21 as far as minor league systems are concerned, and I have a tough time disagreeing with that.

Realistically, the M's have, at max, 3 'A' prospects and probably 5 or 6 'B' prospects. The majority of their prospects should be C's and D's with a couple more F's sprinkled in. It's not a particularly strong system... At best, their farm is average right now.

[DaronAndrew]

Hey thanks for posting this. I think your potential ratings here are pretty darn solid

- Per James Paxton, I would agree with bumping him down to a 'B'. I'm more comfortable with him there than at 'A' despite his college career.

- Unbolded guys in the B range that I would keep there - Triunfel. The remaining unbolded could be suitable in the the C range. I agree with you on Triunfel. He has dealt with some injuries, but he's so young & still with much time to develop.

- C's look good. Poythress and Ramirez are probably the only guys worth considering as B's, but I think properly listed as C's. Burgoon & Hensley could be D's I think, Hensley's mid-20's and hasn't done much. That can shrink that C list a little for the B's coming down.

- D's and F's also look solid.


- I'm most torn on Franklin & Pimintel. Franklin tore through the system last year and has just shot up prospect lists. I think BA has him at #53 and deepleagues at #31.

Pimintel is only 18 (maybe 19 now) and touted as the prospect with the most upside in the M's system. If he develops well he's projected to be a "monster power hitting corner outfielder". It was a tough battle with the Rangers fighting to sign him. That said, since he's so young it'd probably be rather premature to rank him higher than a B. I think thats fair.

Franklin...ugh. He's tough. I think he's the one most up for discussion imo. I'm interested to see what people think.



Besides probably too many B's I think this looks great. I think between 8-10 B's is fair. That about trims your current B's in half, with 2-3 A's.

And several rankings I've seen have this system at 15 or lower (as low as 10).


EDIT:
On second thought thats probably a few too many B's. Peguero could be moved to a C, as well as Littlewood (both young & unproven). And if Franklin is kept as a B, it just feels better with those two at a lower potential. I'd definitely keep Triunfel up there over them. That would bring it down to 6 or 7

[DaronAndrew]

Alex Liddi, Gabriel Noriega & Carlos Peguero are 3 guys that need to be added. They are substantial products (and by that I mean solid C's). So if guys need to be removed to make them that should be done.

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Quote: Originally Posted by DaronAndrew

Alex Liddi & Gabriel Noriega are 2 guys that need to be added. They are substantial products (and by that I mean solid C's). So if guys need to be removed to make them that should be done.

I just forgot to put Liddi in my post; he's on my roster and has a C rating.

I'll add Noriega... Who would you suggest I drop? I was thinking Blash or Forrest Snow.

[DaronAndrew]

Quote: Originally Posted by Apostle

I just forgot to put Liddi in my post; he's on my roster and has a C rating. I'll add Noriega... Who would you suggest I drop? I was thinking Blash or Forrest Snow.

Yeah probably Blash. I also just added Carlos Peguero to that post, he's a 6'5 power hitter that was up in spring training for a while this year. You could drop Snow for him.

You got everybody else though. Nicely done, sir.

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Quote: Originally Posted by DaronAndrew

Yeah probably Blash. I also just added Carlos Peguero to that post, he's a 6'5 power hitter that was up in spring training for a while this year. You could drop Snow for him. You got everybody else though. Nicely done, sir.

I have Peguero on the list as well as a RF, with a C rating. Looks like I just forgot to type in a few guys.

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In reply to Meyeke:

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Is this a rough draft of what you're sending to knight for OSFM?

Yeah, just a rough draft. Hopefully with the help of others, I can get the Mariners' system down solid.

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Esteilon Peguero (2B) - Who is this? There is no record of this guy in any of the Mariner's 9 minor league affiliates.

Esteilon Peguero definitely needs to be in the game. He is a 17-year-old Dominican shortstop who signed with the M's four months ago. He was given a $2.9 million signing bonus and is considered one of the best International prospects in the game (though I do believe his signing bonus was reduced later on).

Jason Churchill at Prospect Insider (a highly respected prospect blog with a focus on the Mariners) has Peguero ranked at #11 among Mariners' prospects.

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M. Littlewood (SS) - Ditto. Who is this guy? He doesn't show up on any minors records.

Littlewood was the #67 overall (second round) pick by the Mariners in the 2010 draft. He's a 6'3" 195 pound shortstop. He is behind Franklin now, but I don't think he's that far behind.

Churchill has him ranked at #6 in his Prospect Handbook. He needs to be in the system.

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Phillips Castillo (LF) - ??? Jordan Shipers (SP) - ???

Castillo was another International signing and some believe that he has more upside than Peguero. Shipers is a left-handed starting pitcher who was a 16th round pick in 2010, and the Mariners paid above slot ($800K) to sign him. In an organization with few lefty pitching prospects, Shipers deserves his spot.

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Key roster fillers who should probably be included:

As far as the players that I should add, I only have a limited number of spots. Nate Robertson, I believe, is having elbow surgery and will not pitch in 2011. I had a tough time justifying using an organizational roster spot on a guy who will probably not be with the organization after this year.

As for the other guys that you feel I should add, please offer up the player that I should replace them with.

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Michael Pineda - has a changeup, not a splitter. Or is his changeup actually more similar to a splitter in real life and that's why you included it? I'm confused, enlighten me please.

As of right now, Pineda's repertoire consists of a fastball, slider and splitter. About the splitter, Jason Churchill says that, "He's still not throwing his changeup a lot -- it's more of a splitter with hard tumble -- but he's throwing it with more consistent arm speed off the fastball. He'll either need to get more 'split' out of the pitch or take more velocity away to instill more effect."

I'll change the eye color for him.

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Nick Franklin - I know he made the prospects list but it seems like he is rated too high. I mean, the kid is still in single A ball.

Agree with this; Franklin's overall ratings are too high. I'll look at that when I do my next update this weekend.

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How did you decide which younger, single A style players to include? Once you get past the spring training crew and the prospects there is plenty to choose from. Do you have a resource for finding out who are the most likely candidates for advancement?

I don't want to say that I rushed in plugging guys in, but I readily admit that there might be some better candidates out there. Basically, I used a plethora of lists, including Churchill's and one at Sodo Mojo and Pro Ball NW. If you're interested in checking these lists out, Google them. It's pretty good stuff, but I'd love feedback on who might be a better choice for an organizational roster spot.

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Did you consider salary when picking out SCEA template players to edit off of? I noticed you got the potential ratings right for the most part, but some of the salaries are off. Like Nick Franklin for example. I don't think he is making $400K in Single A. Probably more like $30-100k.

Honestly, I didn't look at salaries at all. I probably should have, but in the end I think it all evens out. If you have some ideas on how I can improve this, please let me know.

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That's all I got for now. Overall you did a fine job with this. Is there anyone else working on this with you? I can help out if you need it. I got a really good eye for details.

My hope is that I got at least a few guys to help me get this as realistic as possible, and I'd love your help with that.

Thanks for the encouragement!

[Meyeke]

Nice nice..

Yeah, having only 90 spots makes for an interesting crossroads when deciding who to add or subtract.
Are spring training crew w/non-roster invites makes it trickier still.
Adam Kennedy will most likely make the team.
But someone like Denny Bautista or Justin Miller I can see being cut and ultimately signing with another team.
But you know, with the player vault this year, we have the ability to store the extra players for later.
For example, I'm thinking about exporting Nate Robertson and keeping him around as a saved player file.
That might be the best way to duplicate a D.L. stint in this game.
Veteran insurance policy-type players could also be done this way as well.
They don't need any farm-time to progress and get ready, so it wouldn't hurt to just sort of... leave them in "suspended animation" on the hardrive until you need to "call them up".
I can see how prospects take precedence on the 90 player list for sure.. I'm just also thinking we could end up seeing guys like Sean Kazmar or Luis Rodriguez at some point during the season. I mean, they were assigned to AAA Tacoma afterall.

Whew! Talk about a mental exercise. My brain hurts now.

I looked up those 4 guys I didn't recognize and you're right.. they should be included.
They are not listed on any minors rosters *currently*...but if they're the future, then they're the future, and they should be included.
It would be awesome to edit in the exact rosters for AAA and AA, but I just don't see how it's possible given the limitation of only having 90 spots.
Chris Gimenez is on the AAA roster yet it might be more practical to exclude from the OSFM sets since he likely has no future with the M's after this year.

And as for salaries.. it's probably not that important of a detail since the margin of difference is still relatively small. We're not talking milliondollar+ contracts here.
And I noticed SCEA gets this stuff wrong themselves. Bedard is at like 3-4 million in the game when in reality he signed on for only 1 million this year. It was his way of manning up to the free pay check he received last on DL. Classy guy.
I think Jack Wilson is off by a couple million as well. So oh well to that I guess. lol
Definitely not worth changing now.. matching salaries up is not an easy fix and you'd have to go back and redo a lot of work.
I doubt anybody else working on the other teams tried to match salaries up accurately. Seems like there was some collective tunnel vision, using the potential rating as primary criteria when selecting a template player to alter.
So no worries mang. I do want to run it past knight though and see what he thinks and who knows, maybe we can work that in for next year?

I'm out of town and busy this weekend, but I'll be checking in all next week for sure.
I'm stoked that the Mariners are being represented so well.
**** Yeah, Baby!!