Debunking Common Football Myths and Sliders (must read)

[phillysouljah]

Reading slider discussions, I often see a lot of myths constantly perpetuated by people who feel that certain outcomes in their games are not realistic. In this thread, I will examine three common myths which I hope will be kept in mind when appraising the value of slider sets. If there is enough interest, I will make this a series and examine other myths.

Myth #1
It's unrealistic for an RB to get stuffed ten times then break off a 70 yard run

This myth derives from a misinterpretation of what a 4.3 ypc average for a RB in the NFL means.

What to keep in mind is that yards per carry (as in a mean) does not correspond to median yardage.

Check it out:
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=1499

Quote:

In modern times, most RBs have a median carry length of three yards. I suspect that's been the case for the majority of RBs for a long time. LenDale White and his 3.9 YPC last season? Median rush of 3 yards. Adrian Peterson and his 4.8 YPC? Median rush of 3 yards.

What does this mean? What circumstances could lead to someone having a 5.0 YPC but only a median rush of 3 yards?

For example this series of runs:
-2, 0, 3, 4, 20

would produce a 5.0 ypc average but a median run of only 3 yards.

This also means that the difference between an Adrian Peterson and a Lendale White is what we already know from watching the games... AP breaks off big runs and Lendale White doesn't. It's not that AP is necessarily more consistent in turning out 4.5-5.0 yard gains... He could be less consistent than White but make up for it by breaking off a few long runs.

To reiterate, whether a pro bowler or a bench warmer, the median carry is around the same and fairly low at ~3.0. Big runs are what sets apart the AP's from the Lendale White's.

Consider this as well:

Quote:

When talking about big gains, it's hard to ignore Chris Johnson, the league's ultimate breakaway back. Johnson had runs of 91, 89, and 85 yards last year, plus a 57-yarder, a 52-yarder, and a smattering of 30+ and 40+ yarders. He totaled 693 yards on his 14 carries of over 30 yards. To put that in perspective, he would have finished 15th in the AFC in rushing based solely on those 14 carries, ahead of guys like Ronnie Brown and Willis McGahee. Take away Johnson's top 14 runs, and his 352-1313-3.7 statline looks much more mortal, though still quite good. Even without his highlight-reel runs, Johnson can be a productive 1,000-yard back, which is good news to those of us who will be taking him first or second in a fantasy draft. Of course, Johnson's long runs won't go away this year, but it's unlikely that he'll have three 80+ yarders, either. Cut his big-play yardage in half, and you still have a tremendous player.

It's amazing to think that Chris Johnson had 693 yards on a mere 14 carries but that's what his long runs over the course of the season amounted to! Notice how if you take away those long runs, his ridiculous 5.6 ypc average plummets to a mere 3.7 ypc average.

So on 352 carries (96% of his total carries) he only averaged 3.7 yards! It was on a mere 14 carries (average of 49.5 ypc) that he bumped his average all the way up to 5.6 ypc!

I can't stress this enough. 96% of Chris Johnson's carries resulted in an average of 3.7 ypc which is Lendale White territory and would be considered very pedestrian! He skyrocketed to 5.6 ypc off only 4% of his total carries.

I decided to check the play-by-play for an NFL game from last week. Granted, one data point does not a trend make but it gives you an idea of how a typical RB's day goes in the NFL.

I decided to pick a 100+ yard rusher from Week 16 and went with Chicago's Matt Forte, who is neither a powerback nor a skat back but a guy in between. Forte had some surprising room against one of the league's better run D's, the Jets.

He finished with 19 carries for 113 yards. Never dare think that that 5.9 yards per carry average means he was consistently picking up 6 yard gains!

Here are the yardage from every carry he had during that game:

4, 5, 0, 3, 2, 8, 22, 2, 3, 1, 6, 12, 32, 0, 2, 8, 0, 1, 2

Even though he averaged a very high 5.9 average, 11 of his 19 carries went for 3 yards or less! And was stuffed for no gain 3 times!

In order by distance

0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 8, 12, 22, 32

Median carry was 3 yards.

My above post is confirmed in the case of Matt Forte last week. Though he averaged 5.9 ypc, his median carry was only 3 yards which is typical for every RB to have ever played professional football.

Let's go with another 100 yard rusher from Week 16 and see how he plays out. Adrian Peterson has 22 carries for 118 yards. That's a 5.4 ypc, so again, fairly high. What were the carries of arguably the best back in football?

5, 2, 4, -1, 3, 15, 23, 1, -1 (overturned by penalty so not counted), 1, 18, 9, 3, 7, -4, -1, 27, 1, 1, 2, 2, 0, 2.

Even with the best back in football, of his 22 carries, 14 went for 3 yards of less. 63% of the time AP got the ball, he had less than 3 yards yet still averaged 5.4 ypc!

Not only that, but he was downright stuffed for no gain or NEGATIVE yards 4 times and would've been 5 if not for a penalty on the Eagles.

Again, sorted by distance:

-4, -1, -1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 4, 5, 7, 9, 15, 18, 23, 27

AP, though he averaged 5.4 ypc, had a median carry of only 2 yards!


Conclusion
Mean is not the same thing as median. The majority of RB carries are well below their yards per carry averages; that means realism demands RB's in Madden to be held to 0-3 yards on the majority of their carries but occasionally break off big runs

[phillysouljah]

Myth #2
Running lanes open up in the 4th quarter when defenses get tired. Therefore, realism demands that you stick with the run which will be unsuccessful until the 4th.


While that does happen and it's logical that defensive players get tired, this myth doesn't hold up to closer scrutiny.

I took a look at Week 16 games that were close (blowouts with teams either running out the clock or doing nothing but pass aren't meaningful) and looked at 4th quarter RB carries (for all RB's, not just starter) for both the winning and losing teams. Keep in mind that the team with the lead would be trying to run out the clock and probably facing a run-stopping D whereas the catchup team would be throwing more (but that means an occasional run would catch a D off-guard).

The winning team's carries will be stated first.

Bears/Jets
(Bears lead throughout 4th quarter)
Bears
6, 12, 32, 2, 0, 2, 8, 0, 1, 2
Jets
-2, 2, 4, 4, -1


Redskins/Jags
(neither team lead over the whole quarter; also includes OT)
Redskins
4, 1, 0, 4, 10, -2, 2, 1, 0
Jaguars
2, 4, 2


49ers/Rams
(neither team lead over the whole quarter)
Rams
3, 2, 1, -1, -3, 2, -5, 3
49ers
5, 4, 5, 1


Texans/Broncos
(again, lead changes in 4th quarter)
Broncos
1, 7, 0, 4
Texans
2, 3
(interesting to note only 6 4th quarter rushes by both teams combined)


Colts/Raider
(Colts lead throughout 4th quarter)
Colts
9, 12, 18, 4, -3, 6, 2, 0, 2, -1, 3, 5
Raiders
1, 4


As you can see, the 'running lanes open up in the 4th quarter' mantra appears to be nonsense.

In my sample, only the Colts and Bears RB's seemed to have some success, but they were stuffed more often then they broke off big gains in the 4th quarter. In fact, while the Bears averaged 6.5 ypc and the Colts averaged 4.75 ypc, their median rush was only 2 yards and 3.5 yards respectively, which is totally consistent with what you would expect as per my response to Myth #1.


Conclusion
The idea that the 4th quarter is where RB's make their money does not hold up to an examination of game statistics. In the sample studied, RB's typically underperformed in the 4th quarter and those RB's who had more relative success did not perform any better than the NFL full-game average.

[phillysouljah]

Myth #3
There are too many ridiculous injuries in Madden or injuries should not be common

This myth has to do with what I feel is EA Sports' attempt to make game outcomes less contingent on having a healthy roster and make for a more balanced game experience. When you lose your starting QB to injury and are forced to rely on a 60 OVR backup QB, you have usually lost the game and that doesn't make things fun. Unfortunately, for those interested in a simulation experience, that's just how the NFL works. Injuries happen, they force dramatic changes in a coach's game plan, and they are often the primary variable for determining whether a team wins or losses games.

Check the list of players on IR:
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/injuries/pup

These are season-ending injuries. Look how many players each team has on IR. Look when they were placed on IR to get a grip on the distribution (note with only one week left, a team may put players on IR who wouldn't normally have season-ending injuries, but with one week to go, it is season-ending; however, most IR placements were in previous months)

Consider the league-worst Carolina Panthers have 18 players on IR, including critical starters like DeAngelo Williams, Dan Connor, Everette Brown, Matt Moore, and Jeff Otah.

The successful Atlanta Falcons, however, have only 4 players on IR and considering they include the likes of Jerious Norwood and Kerry Meier, it is clear that a major reason for the Falcons' success is just that they can field a full healthy team every week.

However, the NFL's top team, the New England Patriots have no less than 16 players on IR, yet continue to field a team with considerable success so depth and good coaching can offset the effects of injuries.

For the most part, NFL teams average between 15-20 players on IR by the end of the year. Again, even excluding players placed on IR in the final weeks, teams typically have at least a dozen players lost for the season.

Note that these are just players on IR. When you consider all the players out for just a few weeks or who are unable to finish a game, you can see immediately that Madden is greatly underestimating the incidence of injuries in football. If a look at the injury reports in your Madden franchise doesn't show about a dozen players injured any given week, your injury sliders are not portraying realism. (For practical purposes, I have found an injury slider of 95 provides the most realism).

Conclusion
Injuries are a part of the NFL and default Madden settings and the Madden community as a whole considerably underestimate the incidence of injuries

[rockstar38]

Very nicely done!
My man you are right on target with all of these!
Great job!

[CSGames]

Yeah, excellent job! I never payed attention to injuries until I read this, but now I'm going to set my injury setting higher. Could you also debunk the speed and big plays myths ?

[Foxtrot2873]

I kinda like the injury setting at the default setting, though I certainly think it could go up.

[phillysouljah]

Quote: Originally Posted by CSGames

Could you also debunk the speed and big plays myths ?

I'm not sure exactly what you're talking about but I have research on the incidence of big plays in the NFL.

Fortunately, I don't have to do this research myself because the good folks at coldhardfootballfacts have done the work for me.

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com...lay_Index.html

That web page shows the distribution of big plays among every team in the NFL and is useful for determining which teams are big play teams and which teams are more susceptible to giving up the big plays.

However, big plays is covered very broadly and includes the following:

Fumble recovery
Interception
Defensive or special teams score (return TD, safety)
Pass play of 40 yards or more
Run play of 25 yards or more
Kick return of 60 yards or more
Punt return of 40 yards or more
Blocked kick or punt
50-yard+ field goal

Perhaps unsurprisingly, the biggest big play team is the Philadelphia Eagles with 64 big plays as of the start of Week 16.

That means that the Eagles have 4.26 big plays per game. Note, however, that since this metric considers 50+ yard field goals, INTs, fumble recoveries, and defensive/special teams scores as big plays, that 4.26 per game becomes a little less compelling and could consist of such mundaneness as the Eagles getting a pick six, a 51 yard field goal, and a single 45 yard pass play. A game like that would be in keeping with their average without any Desean Jackson/Mike Vick/Lesean McCoy madness.

The worst team at generating big plays is the Minnesota Vikings with only 29 through 15 games, an average of just under 2 big plays per week.

To try to separate turnovers and defensive scores from the big play measures, I'll take a look at the high-scoring Week 16 games based on the assumption that the high-scoring games probably had more big offensive plays than an average NFL game. Therefore, keep in mind that the following will not be representative of the NFL but only of the 'shoot-outs' just to get some grip on the upper limit of big plays in unusually high-scoring NFL games.

Like coldhardfootballfacts, I will define big offensive plays as rushes of 25 yards or more and pass plays of 40 yards or more.

Bears/Jets 72 points scored
J. Knox 40 yard TD catch
M. Forte 32 yard rush

Packers/Giants 62 points scored
J. Nelson 80 yard TD catch
M. Manningham 85 yard TD catch

Lions/Dolphins 61 points scored
J. Best 53 yard TD catch
R. Williams 28 yard rush

Colts/Raiders 57 points scored
D. McFadden 26 yard rush
P. Manning 27 yard rush

Each of the four highest-scoring games of Week 16 had only 2 big offensive plays (25+ yard rushes/40+ yard receptions) each. Half of those big plays resulted in TD scores.

Again, even in unusually high-scoring shootouts, there are typically only 2 big offensive plays per game.


How does your typical Madden game stack up in comparison?

[CSGames]

Quote:

How does your typical Madden game stack up in comparison?

Well, since Madden is a bad football game, my settings almost matches what you've said. But, this is good information for me when I start working on the part in my own football game.