Query: Game-to-Game Momentum?

[NEOPARADIGM]

Talking offline Dynasty here.

I'm controlling Michigan: B+ offense, C+ defense.

Week 1: W 52-6 over Western Michigan.

Now, in week 2, I host Oklahoma State, and take a 31-14 halftime lead, at which point I get bit by the "are my sliders too easy?" bug (consciously noting that I've outscored the CPU 83-20 through six quarters) and proceed to lose the game, 52-48.

Week 3, I'm on the road against Indiana, and I fall behind 21-0 in the first quarter. I go on to lose the game, 48-35. (Got the score wrong in the "Frustrating Loss" thread, for anyone who's paying attention. 48-35 is the correct final.)

Week 4, I just played tonight, hosting Eastern Michigan. I fall behind 7-0 just 0:48 into the game, and eventually trail 28-10 at the half. But here's the thing: I get it together and win the game, 36-35.

Okay, so, to the point: I can't help but notice a pattern here. I'm wondering, had I not lost all competitive control against Oklahoma State, would I have lost the Indiana game? If I had gone on to beat OSU, say, 66-20, would I have fallen behind Indiana 21-0? Or do you suppose that could be literally a continuation of the fact I allowed 38 second-half points to OSU?

And notice that I only allowed 7 second-half points to EMU after I "got it together." My prediction, in turn, is that I should be fairly competent on D for at least the first quarter of my next game (opposed to falling behind 21-0, e.g.).

Also note, I'm not presenting this as any sort of "comeback AI" nonsense or "predetermined outcome" thing; rather I'd suggest that, if there is indeed game-to-game momentum, it's flippin' awesome.

Just wondering if others have noticed something similar, or, more specifically, if this can in fact explain some of the "predetermined outcome" etc. talk we get around here.

Again, if the game is in fact working on a game-to-game momentum system, I think that's awesome: it simulates teams watching film on you and spotting your weaknesses, opposed to previous iterations where if one team exposed you one week as fraudulent stopping the run, e.g., the next team would still try to throw on you all game, etc.

I'm starting to think, seriously, that, for instance, guys who can't run the ball can't run the ball because they haven't been able to run the ball! Ya know? Guys who can't sack the quarterback, aren't sacking the quarterback, because they never sack the quarterback! And so on.

I mean, if I'm wrong, whatever, but, it's not just these four games I'm pointing to (sample size!), it's more of a I've-been-playing-this-game-for-months-and-this-makes-sense hypothesis.

Anything?

[JPCaveman13]

The joking side of me wants to say that's because you're using michigan...lol

Seriously though, I have sorta noticed what you are talking about. It didn't really sink in until I stumbled on this but looking back, I see what you are saying. I have noticed a bit of momentum game-to-game. I had one game where I upset a top team and then came out a little flat the next game against a lesser opponent, having that "hangover effect." Plus I've had a couple games where I just came out completely on fire after an off game. But I do see it a little in the dynasty. I remember in the slightly older versions having a confidence level and that would vary dependent on how each player played. There is probably some facet of that coding still in the game.

But one thing I have noticed is some of the littler things like if I keep working the run throughout the game, it tends to get easier as the game goes on. Or how if I keep working short routes for the better part of my passing game, the DBs tend to fall for a double move with a pump fake. Even if I stall offensively with a couple of three-and-outs, I have a tougher time getting things moving until I can sustain a couple of scoring drives and then it will balance back out.

[NEOPARADIGM]

^ Right on.

And yeah, if nothing else, I'd suggest that if there is in fact game-t0-game momentum, it explains away a lot of little gripes guys have.

I mean, for one thing, bluntly, it explains why guys who blow on defense experience a lot of annoying crap while playing defense (robo-QB, etc.), while guys who are good on defense don't.

Like, the worse you are on defense, the worse you defense performs, not just play to play or quarter to quarter, but game to game. Sounds self-evident, I know, but in context ... like I said, it would explain some things.

[Juiceman612]

I think there is game-to-game momentum. I play on default sliders All-American with the Gophers and I'm 2-8. But very close to 5-5 with 3 brutal OT losses to USC, Northwestern, and Purdue. But that's beside the point kind of. When I play a top 25 team I get crushed. I can get something going at some point in the game, but Ohio St., Wisc, PSU, they all crush me in the end. And they should. The Gophers are horrible.

The one thing that I have noticed is that the more conference losses that happen the harder it becomes to sustain any progress the next game. Same with rival losses. Maybe that's in my head...I don't know. But, last game against Mich St. I got shut out. That was after losing the last oh, 4 games. I can't remember the last time I got shut out in a football game; Madden, NCAA, or other. It got to the point where my WR's were dropping wide open passes. My QB fumbled the first play of the game on a roll out, and I haven't been able to stop the opposing team on 3rd down for 2-3 games now. I'm not horrible at defense although I probably should adjust some sliders as default All-American seems to be too much for me even with the horrid Gophers team. I don't think there is an AI issue. I just think for some reason my guys are all sluggish after multiple losses and deflating OT losses and the other team is zipping around with momentum. I think momentum plays a big role and changes in-game and game-to-game. Just my thoughts. (edit: for a reference point, I have no issues winning games in play now on all-american default sliders with better teams. So, probably not too much of a skill issue).

[GGGswim]

There's got to be something to this thought from y'all.

Breezed through first 7 games heading into an away stretch of games at LSU, FLA and UGA.
Defensively held LSU in check (scoreboard-wise, however they did pile up some ydg) but struggled offensively until, like many of you have said, started to finally sustain a few drives then the ball started rolling downhill.
Against FLA -- a team I'm set to play in the SEC championship game, and scared sh!tless about the prospect -- the 'roll' that LSU's passing game seemed to initiate rolled like I've never seen during my 7 'seasons'. My D, ranked #1, simply couldn't stop them. They threw a ba-jillion 8-10 yard underneath patterns and no matter what I tried (man, zone, 5DB, spy) I couldn't stop them. I won by outlasting them 55-48, forgetting to mention that I picked off their 1st two passes of the game and punched both opportunities in for a 14-0 lead not even halfway into the 1st.
Next up in Athens, (who carried a 4-5 record into the game aginst my #1 Auburn) they did the same thing as FLA. What saved me was the O-line wasn't as good and my amazing line was able to get pressure allowing my strong secondary that significant 1-less second they needed to maintain contact to be close enough to knock down a lot of balls (lost my A-A senior FS for the rest of his career with a broken tailbone -- I sh!t you not -- in that game, tho).

Once "someone" (the AI) figured out how to get to me, I see it every week, now (remember that SEC game coming up?). Even an unbelievably bad UNLV team, tried this, but their personnel was obviously not good enough and their O-line was so bad I had 14 sacks, a DT backed up into coverage and snared an INT, and they finished with -25 total yards of offense -- but the point was not lost that they tried the same thing that LSU, FLA and UGA did.

[TimLawNYC]

Assuming there is something to this theory (and it certainly seems possible), how awesome would it be if EA also gave us some gameplay mechanic to help us, as "coaches" influence this momentum? Like some way that we could try to motivate our players or institute some new gameplan at halftime or in between games in an effort to minimize the effects of bad momentum or to keep good momentum going. This would be great because momentum management is a big part of what great coaches do.

[JPCaveman13]

Quote: Originally Posted by TimLawNYC

Assuming there is something to this theory (and it certainly seems possible), how awesome would it be if EA also gave us some gameplay mechanic to help us, as "coaches" influence this momentum? Like some way that we could try to motivate our players or institute some new gameplan at halftime or in between games in an effort to minimize the effects of bad momentum or to keep good momentum going. This would be great because momentum management is a big part of what great coaches do.

I remember one game had that. I believe it was either 07 or 08 where when you called a timeout, you could "coach up" a section of the team (DL, LBs, DBs) and they could potentially receive a small ratings boost for a few plays.

[Deegeezy]

Sounds like something similar to placebo effect to me.