QB Sim Stats: Only AWR Matters

[Palo20]

I've been taking a look at the sim stats and for QBs it seems that AWR is the only rating that matters. I've seen this now in multiple simmed dynasties.

The cutoff point I've noticed is at about 83-84 AWR. Guys above this mark perform much better, regardless of their THA rating. In the example below, guys like Pryor, Kaepernick, Dobbs, Colburn, and Nesbitt all have incredible years with less than steller THA ratings. The difference is their AWR is 84+. Also, in some glitch, LB Martez Wilson played QB for Illinois and with his 90 THP, 76 THA, and 85 AWR (from LB obviously), he was able to complete 64% of his passes over the course of the season.

On the other hand, good QBs like Stanzi, Cousins, Collaros, Kinne, Brantley, Barkley, Foles, Wilson, and others all struggled to even complete 50% of their passes. Foles has 89 THA, Weeden has 90 THA and they were both under 50%.

So Comp% is basically determined by AWR. In this particular season, there were 20 QBs over 60% completions and 86 QBs under 50%.

Sorted by Rating:

Name	Team	THP	THA	AWR	QB Rating	Comp %
Case Keenum	Houston	89	96	90	190.2	76%
Greg McElroy	Bama	85	92	95	180.8	67%
Terrelle Pryor	OSU	90	83	86	173.6	69%
Landry Jones	OU	93	88	86	172.1	66%
Kellen Moore	Boise	88	95	94	170.2	67%
Ryan Mallett	Arkansas	97	92	89	167.5	65%
Andy Dalton	TCU	88	89	89	166.0	71%
Colin Kaepernick	Nevada	88	85	85	164.8	68%
Ricky Dobbs	Navy	88	79	85	162.7	69%
Andrew Luck	Stanford	90	93	90	162.1	67%
Ryan Colburn	Fresno	88	83	85	161.3	64%
Josh Nesbitt	GA Tech	94	76	90	161.0	67%
Taylor Potts	TTEch	90	89	85	160.5	62%
Jake Locker	UW	96	88	84	158.8	65%
Jordan Wynn	Utah	85	86	84	158.4	65%
Christian Ponder	FSU	86	90	90	157.8	67%
Blaine Gabbert	Mizzou	94	89	83	154.4	66%
Jerod Johnson	Texas A&M	89	86	85	154.0	65%
Scott Tolzien	Wisconsin	85	88	88	153.8	61%
Jimmy Costello	Mizzou	90	82	65	153.8	53%	122 ATT
Tyrod Taylor	VA Tech	94	84	80	141.5	59%
Ricky Stanzi	Iowa	87	88	80	139.3	57%
Martez Wilson	Illinois	90	76	85	139.0	64%
Robert Griffin	Baylor	92	85	80	133.3	56%
Mike Marscovetra	BC	85	88	77	132.8	51%
David Shinskie	BC	87	85	80	129.5	53%
Kyle Parker	Clemson	89	84	80	128.0	54%
Kirk Cousins	Michigan ST	87	88	80	127.2	53%
Zach Collaros	Cincy	87	90	80	125.0	51%
Dayne Crist	ND	92	86	70	122.1	52%
Tom Savage	Rutgers	93	85	78	121.1	52%
GJ Kinne	Tulsa	87	88	67	117.2	51%
Tate Forcier	Michigan	88	85	75	116.5	49%
Jacory Harris	Miami	94	87	80	114.5	49%
Nate Costa	Oregon	90	85	75	114.0	46%
Garrett Gilbert	Texas	88	86	78	109.0	47%
Matt Barkley	USC	90	85	76	108.2	48%
Russell Wilson	NC State	91	85	70	104.8	47%
Jordan Jefferson	LSU	89	85	74	104.8	50%
Nick Foles	Arizona	89	89	78	104.3	49%
Brandon Weeden	OK State	88	90	70	99.3	45%
John Brantley	UF	91	86	75	97.1	45%

[Pogo27]

This is for one season, right?

Sim the first season on dynasty mode multiple times over and see if it holds true, scientific method and all.

[Palo20]

Quote: Originally Posted by Pogo27

This is for one season, right? Sim the first season on dynasty mode multiple times over and see if it holds true, scientific method and all.

As I said, I have simmed many seasons, this is just one example. It's held pretty true. Dobbs and Nesbitt are studs every season.

[Pogo27]

Quote: Originally Posted by Palo20

As I said, I have simmed many seasons, this is just one example. It's held pretty true

I'd love to see more cumulative stats. You've made a conclusion but only given us one set of data.

There are obvious outliers, such as GJ Kinne's 67 awareness netting a 51% completion percentage. It'd also be nice to throw up some of the route-running and catching stats, etc. for the WRs each of these guys are throwing to. If Kinne is consistently throwing much higher % than he should, could it possibly be attributed to his WR's skill? And if so, doesn't that in itself completely debase your conclusion?

[Palo20]

Quote: Originally Posted by Pogo27

I'd love to see more cumulative stats. You've made a conclusion but only given us one set of data. There are obvious outliers, such as GJ Kinne's 67 awareness netting a 51% completion percentage. It'd also be nice to throw up some of the route-running and catching stats, etc. for the WRs each of these guys are throwing to. If Kinne is consistently throwing much higher % than he should, could it possibly be attributed to his WR's skill? And if so, doesn't that in itself completely debase your conclusion?

I'll post another one with the same guys.

[dan_457]

This is interesting stuff, i think tomorrow I'll look to see how my stats from 2018 compare. Considering how the AWR stat is lower in general by that point for all players, there shouldn't be too many high completion percentage QBs.

[Pacman83]

Yeah, based on QB overall ratings, only Thw Pwr, Thw Accu, & Awr matter. 99 Speed, Acceleration, high running skills don't have much effect. Seems Awareness is where its at.

[thedudedominick]

AWR has always been the most important thing for QBs in this game as far as simulation goes. I remember having a guy with 99 power and accuracy but only 60 awareness throwing like 25tds to 20ints and then the next season a guy around 85 in both but a 95 awareness throwing 25tds to only 5ints. Of course it was more fun playing with the 99 guy as I could hit every pass haha.