Building a better draft value chart

[swaldo]

A good read is the 2008 Pro Football Prospectus. In it they have a modified draft value chart based on their research. They note how the teams that draft down have ended up better than teams that draft up. These teams have seemed to figure out the Johnson chart is flawed because there is an absurd overvaluation placed on eary picks.

During the last 5 years the top two teams that have drafted down are Green Bay and New England. The top two that drafted up are Detroit and Oakland. It also includes and analysis of big trades this year such as JAX trading away four picks to BAL - only to watch them squander away their great fortune to Houston.

Example: Another poster here wanted to coach Denver and trade up with Miami to get the #1 overall in the draft. In return he would give Miami Champ Bailey + his #1 pick (12th overall.) According to the ESPN draft value chart the #1 pick is worth 3000 and the number 12 is worth 1200 points. This leaves a difference of 1800 points which is comparable to a round 1 (4th overall pick.) This is probably not a good deal for Miami because Champ is of course an aging veteran.

The Prospectus modified ADV chart values the #1 pick at 3000 and the #12 at 2665. This is a difference of 335 points - which is the comparable value of a 4th round pick (#131 overall.) If I were Miami that would be a very tempting offer because Lord knows they need bodies.

The book also has an article titled "The injury effect" and lists the total number of injuries - for example there were 9046 players listed as probable from 2001-2007. 89% played and 11% did not play. Out of the 12762 players listed as OUT/IR/PUP only 0.4% played.

This book is chock full of interesting numbers and articles - a recommended read for fans of this game and devs alike. It reminds me of the classic books "The hidden game of football" and "The thinking mans guide to pro football." The Prospectus costs only $14 at overstock.com - the retail price is $22.

http://www.overstock.com/Books-Movie...i_sku=11094847

2008prospectus.jpg

[slingblade73]

I have read it cover to cover, well worth the cash.

[x1Blumpkin1x]

I think I might pick this up. Thanks for the heads up.

[JRod]

What's Boar Jackson rated?

[slingblade73]

Quote: Originally Posted by JRod

What's Boar Jackson rated?

Boar Jackson only averaged 73.2 yards per game and never cracked a thousand yards in a season.

[swaldo]

Quote: Originally Posted by JRod

What's Boar Jackson rated?

It's not a historical reference, but a look into the future with team previews etc. They even have OL/DL rankings and stats. Beware it's as big as a telephone book - almost 500 pages!

[JRod]

Quote: Originally Posted by swaldo

It's not a historical reference, but a look into the future with team previews etc. They even have OL/DL rankings and stats. Beware it's as big as a telephone book - almost 500 pages!

Um I was kidding because isn't Boar Jackson, supposed to be Bo Jackson in Josh's created draft class?

[thesimulator]

Quote: Originally Posted by swaldo

A good read is the 2008 Pro Football Prospectus. In it they have a modified draft value chart based on their research. They note how the teams that draft down have ended up better than teams that draft up. These teams have seemed to figure out the Johnson chart is flawed because there is an absurd overvaluation placed on eary picks. During the last 5 years the top two teams that have drafted down are Green Bay and New England. The top two that drafted up are Detroit and Oakland. It also includes and analysis of big trades this year such as JAX trading away four picks to BAL - only to watch them squander away their great fortune to Houston. Example: Another poster here wanted to coach Denver and trade up with Miami to get the #1 overall in the draft. In return he would give Miami Champ Bailey + his #1 pick (12th overall.) According to the ESPN draft value chart the #1 pick is worth 3000 and the number 12 is worth 1200 points. This leaves a difference of 1800 points which is comparable to a round 1 (4th overall pick.) This is probably not a good deal for Miami because Champ is of course an aging veteran. The Prospectus modified ADV chart values the #1 pick at 3000 and the #12 at 2665. This is a difference of 335 points - which is the comparable value of a 4th round pick (#131 overall.) If I were Miami that would be a very tempting offer because Lord knows they need bodies. The book also has an article titled "The injury effect" and lists the total number of injuries - for example there were 9046 players listed as probable from 2001-2007. 89% played and 11% did not play. Out of the 12762 players listed as OUT/IR/PUP only 0.4% played. This book is chock full of interesting numbers and articles - a recommended read for fans of this game and devs alike. It reminds me of the classic books "The hidden game of football" and "The thinking mans guide to pro football." The Prospectus costs only $14 at overstock.com - the retail price is $22. http://www.overstock.com/Books-Movie...i_sku=11094847 Attachment 9915

Very interesting post swaldo, thanks for the tip. I have always felt that the value chart is the best way to manipulate the draft. It comes down to how much value I as a coach put on the player. Does anyone recall how Jimmy Johnson let the cat out of the bag in regards to his chart?

It was me that was thinking about trading Champ to Miami and the 12 for their number 1. Its an idea I floated around, especially since Champ will start the downhill slide soon. I may still pull the trigger depending on the salary cap repercussion.