A Real Life Sports Fan vs. Virtual Head Coach

[TarHeelPhenom]

Every Saturday during college football season I get pissed at least once a game while watching Carolina play at what I perceive to be boneheaded coaching moves(going for it on 4th versus not, questionable playcalling etc.). Extending no grace whatsoever...

Yet, here I am in the virtual world and I know I have cost my teams a few victories in Dynasty doing the same thing lol. I'm 3 games deep into my current season and yet I'm sitting here thinking about our game(I'm Maryland) against Michigan from last season. We lost to them 13-10 on the road. I was over aggressive for no reason trying to send a message going for it twice on 4th in the red zone, when taking points would have been the wise thing to do, especially seeing what the final score ended up being. But, they dog walked us the year before and I felt like I needed 7's instead of 3's to win on the road. I should have trusted my defense which ended up being #1 ranked D in the country. I'm incompetent at my job lol!!

[sherrane]

Quote: Originally Posted by TarHeelPhenom

Every Saturday during college football season I get pissed at least once a game while watching Carolina play at what I perceive to be boneheaded coaching moves(going for it on 4th versus not, questionable playcalling etc.). Extending no grace whatsoever... Yet, here I am in the virtual world and I know I have cost my teams a few victories in Dynasty doing the same thing lol. I'm 3 games deep into my current season and yet I'm sitting here thinking about our game(I'm Maryland) against Michigan from last season. We lost to them 13-10 on the road. I was over aggressive for no reason trying to send a message going for it twice on 4th in the red zone, when taking points would have been the wise thing to do, especially seeing what the final score ended up being. But, they dog walked us the year before and I felt like I needed 7's instead of 3's to win on the road. I should have trusted my defense which ended up being #1 ranked D in the country. I'm incompetent at my job lol!!

The section of the sentence I underlined is a trap that many sports fans fall into. When you change the calculation in a mathematical equation you almost always change the outcome.


Going for it on 4th in the Red Zone rather than kicking a FG is something that is becoming increasingly more popular with coaches, especially offensive minded ones. Defensive coaches tend to stay with the "games are more often lost than they are won" mentality and will (seemingly) always take the points.


Think about this. 1st quarter and you trail 7-0. You have the ball 4th and goal at the 3. Kick the FG or go? Go for it and fail. Your opponent is backed up inside their 5. They will be more conservative coming off their goal line. If you have a good defense, you have a realistic expectation of getting the ball back with good field position. Kick the FG and you are down 7-3 and they have a realistic expectation of getting the ball at their own 25 or better and will confidently execute their entire offense.


So, you kicked a FG in the first scenario and they answered with their own FG. You face the same situation with 4th and goal from the 4. Kick another FG? You need TDs.



DISCLAIMER: My bias is that the team that kicks the most FGs will lose the game. A FG is worth less than half of a TD.

[Collegefbfan]

I also look at it from so many angles. You are on the opponent’s 35 yard line. It is 4th and 4. Quite a long FG for most. Hey so you’re going for it, and one of the bad things happens. The other team gets the ball. So, let’s say now you are down in the red zone. It is 4th and 4. Heck, even 4th and 2. You are going for it even though the field is now so much more condensed. If your defense is as good as you think, always take the points. Now, if your kicker sucks, flip a coin.

[canes21]

I wish there was a feature within Dynasty mode that let me watch a replay of my game from a broadcast angle so I could sit here and judge myself like I do real teams. Would love to see what decisions I make after the fact and how I'd roast myself for doing it.

[TarHeelPhenom]

Quote: Originally Posted by sherrane

The section of the sentence I underlined is a trap that many sports fans fall into. When you change the calculation in a mathematical equation you almost always change the outcome. Going for it on 4th in the Red Zone rather than kicking a FG is something that is becoming increasingly more popular with coaches, especially offensive minded ones. Defensive coaches tend to stay with the "games are more often lost than they are won" mentality and will (seemingly) always take the points. Think about this. 1st quarter and you trail 7-0. You have the ball 4th and goal at the 3. Kick the FG or go? Go for it and fail. Your opponent is backed up inside their 5. They will be more conservative coming off their goal line. If you have a good defense, you have a realistic expectation of getting the ball back with good field position. Kick the FG and you are down 7-3 and they have a realistic expectation of getting the ball at their own 25 or better and will confidently execute their entire offense. So, you kicked a FG in the first scenario and they answered with their own FG. You face the same situation with 4th and goal from the 4. Kick another FG? You need TDs. DISCLAIMER: My bias is that the team that kicks the most FGs will lose the game. A FG is worth less than half of a TD.

As an old head, there was a time where I would have absolutely not have gone for it on 4th down in those situations in trying to keep up with what happens in real life. There was a time when going for it on 4th was a rarity and a gamble. But, not anymore. Heck, you have teams going for it in n 4th and short on their own side of the field. Seeing that in real life has given me “permission “ so o speak to take more risk.

That and the fact that my program identity is running the football, and being able to line up and run it against anybody regardless of opponent. So, I admit that in the specific example I gave using the Michigan game, there was an element of arrogance involved. As “coach” I basically said, I don’t care if you’re Michigan, we’re in the Big House, and taking points make since…we are Maryland, we run the football, and we’re going to line up and get this. We were having success running it.

I’m taking that with me, and if we find ourselves in the same situation, depending on who we are playing, and what time of game, I’d like to think I’ll make better choices.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

When you think about aggressive strategies like going for it on 4th down instead of kicking or punting, imagine the most extreme example: a hypothetical opponent that has a cheat code offense. They score a TD every time they touch the ball. It doesn't matter if they start on their own 1, they're getting a 99 yard TD. The only way you'd win is to score every time you had the ball and to have more possessions than they did. You'd go for it on every 4th down and onside kick every time, unless it was the last play and a FG wins the game.


That's obviously the most extreme made-up example, but it shows that the more powerful offenses get, the more crucial it becomes to simply have more possessions than the opponent. Sacrificing one of your downs and voluntarily surrendering possession to gain 40 yards of field position becomes less and less valuable.


Patterning your decisions on real life coaches doesn't work, because video game offense is so much easier than real life. It changes all the probabilities.