National rushing stats way too low

[trevdawg0909]

Sorry if this has been discussed elsewhere but I haven't seen it yet.

I am at the end of year 3 of my SJSU dynasty and my freshman HB just finished second in the running back of the year awards after getting only 810 tds and 7 TD's.
I thought this was odd so I checked the national stats and to my surprise only ONE running back in the ENTIRE country went for over 1000 yds on the season!! Compare that to 56 WR's going over 1000 yds receiving.
To check if this was correct, I checked the game stats for about 40 random games and NOT ONCE did I see a running back rush for over 55 yds in a game! NOT ONCE!
Anyone else notice that although the receiving and passing stats all seem to be pretty accurate, the rushing stats are abysmal and not at all even CLOSE to realistic.

[jdb7623]

Quote: Originally Posted by trevdawg0909

Sorry if this has been discussed elsewhere but I haven't seen it yet. I am at the end of year 3 of my SJSU dynasty and my freshman HB just finished second in the running back of the year awards after getting only 810 tds and 7 TD's. I thought this was odd so I checked the national stats and to my surprise only ONE running back in the ENTIRE country went for over 1000 yds on the season!! Compare that to 56 WR's going over 1000 yds receiving. To check if this was correct, I checked the game stats for about 40 random games and NOT ONCE did I see a running back rush for over 55 yds in a game! NOT ONCE! Anyone else notice that although the receiving and passing stats all seem to be pretty accurate, the rushing stats are abysmal and not at all even CLOSE to realistic.

It's a known issue. In simmed games teams run too few plays and especially too few running plays

[jello1717]

Quote: Originally Posted by trevdawg0909

Sorry if this has been discussed elsewhere but I haven't seen it yet.

It’s been discussed a TON on these forums in several threads.

[dahlzy19]

Yes, I think it's the biggest issue by far for Dynasty. With the playoff teams you might see some RB's reach 1400 or so yards.

It's two things - either the dev team didn't give dynasty a sniff of a sim to check out the stats and make sure everything look ups to snuff from a basic FBS college landscape. Or they don't know how to fix it and decided to release it as is - which is banana cakes. I get there being bugs, 100%, but this? Perry and Hubbard went for over 2000 yards in 13 games in just 2019.

An exact comparison is 2K releasing NBA 2K and the league leaders for rebounds is only at 8 RPG. That's broken.

/vent

You'll just have to power through - it's what I and assuming others are doing since other areas of the game are very well done.

[The_Subspace_Mariner]

I've noticed an issue with sim ratios being completely off with how the CPU actually called plays in game.

Played USC in a playoff game, and their season breakdown was 73% pass...so what happens? They run it 17 times in the first quarter.

[medicemtp]

Quote: Originally Posted by jdb7623

It's a known issue. In simmed games teams run too few plays and especially too few running plays

Every stat is to low on offense and defense due to low play count in sim games . Hopefully this gets fixed in there big patch supposedly coming soon they have mentioned patching some things in sim games

[canes21]

This was my post in the other thread on the issue. This is only a macro view of it all. I think some other issues with the sim stats are also the 1st downs gained to plays run ratio is off among other micro details, but I only wanted to give an overview look with this post.

I am holding off on looking at the sim stats anymore until the patch tuning them releases, then I will work to compile more data to look at the macro and micro stats to see what still differs.

Quote: Originally Posted by canes21

I am in week 11 in my dynasty right now, so not a complete season, but everyone has played 8 or 9 games to this point. I just took the time to compile all the stats for all 134 teams. I then filtered out the two user teams from the dynasty and all teams they had played to this point leaving the only teams remaining in the table the teams that have had 100% of their games simmed. I did it that way so we could specifically look at simmed games only. While the season isn't complete yet, this sample is still 501 simmed games, so I feel it's more than enough for us to compare it to last season's stats in real life. After getting the dynasty data compiled, I was able to then export the 2023 real life stats from cfbstats.com and then type up a few quick formulas to get the numbers I needed to compare on a macro level. Here is what the data shows. We can instantly see that the play count in simmed games is much lower than real life. 11.4 less plays per team than real life meaning the average simulated game in dynasty has 23 less plays than a real life college football game. We can also see as a result, total yards are 20 yards lower per team despite the average team gaining just under 1 yard more per play than real life teams did last year. Pass attempts were actually surprisingly close to real life, but yards per game were much higher due to the yards per attempt being nearly 1.5 yards more than real life. Pass TDs per game are over .5 more per game than real life. That's kind of significant relative to the numbers we're looking at. Interceptions are slightly lower than real life at. On the rushing side of things, carries are significantly lower than real life averages at over 10 less per game. That's 20 total each game between the teams. That's clearly why rush yards are so low. Yards per carry are surprisingly right on the money almost. Rushing TDs are .5 less per game than real life, which again, given the size of these numbers, is quite significant over the course of a season that goes 12+ games for all 134 teams. So, the simmed games need to have more plays ran in them, the run/pass ratio needs to be tweaked to leave passes where they are while increasing run totals by around 10 carries per game, the pass game needs to be tweaked to have less yards per pass, interceptions need a slight increase, and hopefully the improved ratios fix the run/pass TD ratio issues. To get a better idea of what is going on, I would need to not look at just average values, but grab the median values to see what is skewing things. I'd need to look at how say the top 25 rushing teams compare to real life and do the same with the bottom 25. Then I could see if the entire rushing stats are off or if it's maybe right in the middle and bottom, but the top 25 teams aren't having the success they should in simmed games compared to real life. There's a variety of things I could do to get a cleaner picture, but this gives us a quick summary to see what the main issues are. This should be fixable, the question is whether or not EA will make an attempt to make it significantly more accurate. I'd like to think they will given the passion behind this game, however, they've left Madden's sim stats sit in a similar situation for a lot of years now. That is what scares me. One thing that really stuck out to me when getting all the data from my dynasty was just how many teams were giving 95% of their carries to their #1 RB. Some teams even literally had 1 RB take all the carries while their QB had the remaining carries sans 1 or 2 carries by a random WR. Far too many teams had literally 100% of the carries get split between RB1, RB2, and the QB and nobody else got a single carry, and in most of those instances RB1 would have 90% of the carries or more. It also stuck out when gathering the data for both the passing and rushing game how no mass subs is leads to basically no backups getting any stats at all on 99% of the teams. I could probably count on one hand the number of teams that had a third running back have even 1 rushing attempt. I could probably count even less teams that had a 2nd quarterback with any stats at all. That's just not realistic and that scares me as well because that makes it seem like bigger issues are at play with the sim engine and it's not as simple as tuning it to get 10 more carries per game for each team.