NBA 2K17 Roster Update Available Now, Details Included (4-18)

[Real2KInsider]

LOL remember when 2K was priding itself on how few 90 OVR players they had? (Six, one of whom was Duncan on "rep")

Fast forward a year and that number is 16! Power creep is still an issue, as they can't/won't find a balance between running the numbers and placating the fans.

[Real2KInsider]

Top 10 Point Guards
96 (+3) Russell Westbrook (OKC): 30.6 PER, 55 TS%, 57 AST%, 42 USG%
95 (+1) Stephen Curry (GSW): 24.7 PER, 62 TS%, 31 AST%, 30 USG%
91 (NC) Chris Paul (LAC): 26.2 PER, 61 TS%, 47 AST%, 24 USG%
90 (+5) Isaiah Thomas (BOS): 26.5 PER, 63 TS%, 33 AST%, 34 USG%
90 (+1) Damian Lillard (POR): 24.1 PER, 59 TS%, 29 AST%, 32 USG%
90 (+2) John Wall (WAS): 23.2 PER, 54 TS%, 47 AST%, 31 USG%
90 (+1) Kyrie Irving (CLE): 23.0 PER, 57 TS%, 30 AST%, 31 USG%
88 (+2) Kyle Lowry (TOR): 22.9 PER, 62 TS%, 30 AST%, 25 USG%
87 (+2) Mike Conley (MEM): 23.2 PER, 60 TS%, 35 AST%, 26 USG%
86 (+1) Kemba Walker (CHA): 21.3 PER, 57 TS%, 29 AST%, 29 USG%

Point guard rankings are tough to mess up. Very few PGs are impact-positive defensive players, which means their primary value is offensive production. This means a simple figure like PER is often an accurate depiction of player worth. Defensive/low-usage PGs like Patrick Beverley or Derek Fisher are the very narrow exception to this (unlike the SG position there are a very small handful of players who qualify for this "exemption").

Using DRPM to measure defensive impact/ability...

Defensive Rating Plus Minus (30 mpg)
2.89 Chris Paul
1.63 Patrick Beverley
1.19 Jrue Holiday
0.94 Kyle Lowry
0.82 George Hill
0.74 Ricky Rubio
0.39 Stephen Curry
0.38 Marcus Smart
-0.39 Jeff Teague
-0.47 Mike Conley
-0.59 Eric Bledsoe
-0.73 Russell Westbrook
-0.97 John Wall
-1.26 Kemba Walker
-1.27 Damian Lillard
-1.48 Darren Collison
-1.62 Goran Dragic
-2.23 Kyrie Irving
-2.54 Dennis Scrhoder
-4.17 Isaiah Thomas

The median DRPM for a PG was -0.88 this year (out of 92 players, per ESPN). There's a very short list of PGs who managed to be a net-positive on defense (though it's consistently the same guys each year).

Chris Paul is underrated. The offensive numbers Isaiah Thomas put up this year? Chris Paul has been doing that his entire career. Paul has lead his position in DRPM two straight years now (2.44 last year), whereas Thomas was DEAD LAST in the LEAGUE (468th) It may not be Thomas fault that he is 5'9", but it's not like Paul is much taller either. He's the John Stockton of this generation.

Steph Curry is overrated. Point blank. His season was nowhere near comparable to 2016 where he lead the league in PER, True Shooting%, FT%, 3PM, FGM, Total Steals, and Win Shares.

2016 Curry: 31.5 PER, 67 TS% (50-45-91)
2017 Curry: 24.7 PER, 62 TS% (46-41-90)

He was not a better player this season than Kevin Durant (27.6 PER, 65 TS%) and this should be reflected, rather than coddled. It's what made LAST season so special - it was one of the all-time great performances.

Speaking of all-time great performances - comparing the Curry of this season to what Russell Westbrook did is a bonafide joke. If you're going to use an "all-time" scale then Westbrook's historic season and Curry's historic season should be rated as such - rather than Curry getting inflated out of the blowback from a prior feat.

[Real2KInsider]

Top 10 Shooting Guards
96 (+6) James Harden (HOU): 27.3 PER, 61 TS%, 51 AST%, 34 USG%
90 (+2) Jimmy Butler (CHI): 25.1 PER, 59 TS%, 25 AST%, 27 USG%
89 (+2) DeMar DeRozan (TOR): 24.0 PER, 55 TS%, 21 AST%, 34 USG%
88 (-2) Klay Thompson (GSW): 17.4 PER, 59 TS%, 9 AST%, 26 USG%
87 (+8) Bradley Beal (WAS): 20.1 PER, 60 TS%, 16 AST%, 27 USG%
85 (+2) C.J. McCollum (POR): 19.9 PER, 59 TS%, 18 AST%, 28 USG%
83 (+5) Devin Booker (PHX): 14.6 PER, 53 TS%, 16 AST%, 29 USG%
82 (-5) Dwyane Wade (CHI): 18.5 PER, 51 TS%, 22 AST%, 30 USG%
81 (NC) Khris Middleton (MIL): 15.0 PER, 57 TS%, 18 AST%, 23 USG%
81 (-1) Avery Bradley (BOS): 14.4 PER, 55 TS%, 11 AST%, 22 USG%

DRPM (30 mpg)
1.56 Victor Oladipo
0.81 Khris Middleton
0.15 Wesley Matthews
0.05 Josh Richardson
-0.12 Dion Waiters
-0.22 Eric Gordon
-0.36 Nicolas Batum
-0.62 Dwyane Wade (29.9 mpg)
-0.77 Klay Thompson
-0.88 Bradley Beal
-1.15 Avery Bradley
-1.19 Evan Fournier
-1.31 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
-1.51 Courtney Lee
-1.79 James Harden
-1.91 C.J. McCollum
-2.26 DeMar DeRozan
-2.39 Gary Harris
-2.53 Devin Booker

Couple notes on this data (Median -0.77 out of 99 players).

Danny Green and Tony Allen both have higher DRPM than Oladipo but don't average 30 MPG (both in the 27 MPG range). There are more low-usage "defensive specialists" at SG than at the PG position but they are more prone to being in a 50/50 or 55/45 playing time split.

While defense is important, it's still offense that guarantees large chunks of playing-time. None of the top SG rate highly on defense (which further illustrates just how big Chris Paul's contribution is - with props to Kyle Lowry and Stephen Curry as well).

I understand the logic for James Harden to share the same OVR as Russell Westbrook, given that they are both contenders for the 2017 MVP award (and Harden is favored there, given historical precedent). He's still a negative on defense (though not close to Isaiah Thomas), but better than a few of his peers. When you measure his contributions on both ends Harden is overrated. I'd probably take Harden/Paul and meet somewhere in the middle like 93/94. It's not like his offensive numbers are that much better than Jimmy Butler (90) or DeMar DeRozan (89).

I have long maintained that Klay Thompson is overrated and shouldn't have sniffed anywhere close to 90 OVR last year - dropping him down to 88 doesn't change that. At the end of the day Klay is the 4th best player on a 67 win team (and not close to the other 3). There are a handful of people who hype up his defense but the reality is he's no Khris Middleton, and never has been.

Lastly, Devin Booker sucks, that is all. Anyone who would take him over Lou Williams, Eric Gordon, Nicolas Batum, or J.J. Redick is clowning themselves, I don't care how many points he scored in garbage time (fun fact: he shot 27% in the five games leading up to his Brandon Jennings-esque "explosion").

[Real2KInsider]

Top 10 Small Forwards
97 (+1) LeBron James (CLE): 27.0 PER, 62 TS%, 41 AST%, 30 USG%
96 (+3) Kawhi Leonard (SAS): 27.5 PER, 61 TS%, 19 AST%, 31 USG%
95 (+2) Kevin Durant (GSW): 27.6 PER, 65 TS%, 23 AST%, 28 USG%
91 (+1) Paul George (IND): 20.2 PER, 59 TS%, 16 AST%, 29 USG%
90 (+7) Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL): 26.1 PER, 60 TS%, 27 AST%, 28 USG%
88 (+4) Gordon Hayward (UTA): 22.2 PER, 60 TS%, 18 AST%, 28 USG%
84 (-4) Carmelo Anthony (NYK): 17.9 PER, 54 TS%, 14 AST%, 29 USG%
84 (+2) Andrew Wiggins (MIN): 16.5 PER, 53 TS%, 11 AST%, 29 USG%
80 (+1) Harrison Barnes (DAL): 16.3 PER, 54 TS%, 8 AST%, 25 USG%
80 (-1) Jae Crowder (BOS): 14.9 PER, 61 TS%, 10 AST%, 17 USG%

Continued
80 (NC) Rudy Gay (SAC): 17.9 PER, 56 TS%, 14 AST%, 26 USG%
80 (+4) Otto Porter (WAS): 17.3 PER, 64 TS%, 7 AST%, 15 USG%

DRPM (30 mpg) / Median = 0.14 (81 players)
4.33 Robert Covington
2.51 Andre Roberson
2.10 Jimmy Butler - Forgot that 2K has him erroneously listed at SG
1.95 Rudy Gay
1.72 Giannis Antetokounmpo
1.58 Kevin Durant
1.48 Jae Crowder
1.35 LeBron James
1.30 Trevor Ariza
0.76 Kawhi Leonard - Ironically he'll probably get DPOY
0.26 Danilo Gallinari
0.21 Paul George
0.15 Justise Winslow
0.14 Harrison Barnes
0.03 Otto Porter
0.01 Gordon Hayward
-1.54 Wilson Chandler
-1.75 Carmelo Anthony
-2.45 T.J. Warren
-3.17 Andrew Wiggins

Paul George is easily the most overrated player we have covered so far. He hasn't taken a step forward since the 2014 season, and his 2015 injury likely capped his ceiling. The Pacers struggled to make the playoffs despite talent and health, and a lot of that falls on George not being the superstar that some (including 2K Sports) erroneously perceive him to be. He should be in the Gordon Hayward-tier (86-88 OVR).

Giannis Antetokounmpo is underrated. His numbers and defense are right there with the holy trinity of LeBron/Kawhi/Durant. The biggest gap between them is the caliber of their teammates.

Jimmy Butler should be listed at SF by 2K, which would add about 2 points to his OVR (if my memory serves correctly). That should at least address one of the comments made by someone earlier in the thread. He's up there among the top two-way players in the game.

Rudy Gay was an odd omission here (likely due to his injury) and I don't know anyone that can make a convincing argument that Harrison Barnes (the poor-man's Rudy Gay) is on par with him. Rudy Gay is underrated and should clearly be top 10.

Carmelo Anthony and Andrew Wiggins are overrated. Poor defense cancels out their inefficient offense. While Melo has made a career out of tricking people into thinking otherwise, Wiggins isn't far behind him. They both have been at the bottom of the SF DRPM list for the last three years (and it's reflected in their team's win totals).

[XxKnicksRules215xX]

Rashidi, are you doing a roster maybe an end of season roster??

[Real2KInsider]

Top 10 Power Forwards
94 (+4) Anthony Davis (NOP): 27.5 PER, 58 TS%, 11 AST%, 33 USG%
88 (+1) Blake Griffin (LAC): 22.6 PER, 57 TS%, 25 AST%, 30 USG%
87 (+5) Kevin Love (CLE): 21.1 PER, 57 TS%, 10 AST%, 26 USG%
87 (-1) LaMarcus Aldridge (SAS): 18.6 PER, 53 TS%, 10 AST%, 25 USG%
86 (-4) Draymond Green (GSW): 16.5 PER, 52 TS%, 28 AST%, 16 USG%
84 (-2) Paul Millsap (ATL): 17.9 PER, 54 TS%, 18 AST%, 24 USG%
84 (+4) Kristaps Porzingis (NYK): 17.4 PER, 55 TS%, 7 AST%, 24 USG%
83 (+5) Jabari Parker (MIL): 19.1 PER, 56 TS%, 14 AST%, 27 USG%
80 (NC) Zach Randolph (MEM): 18.5 PER, 49 TS%, 14 AST%, 29 USG%
80 (-4) Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): 17.0 PER, 53 TS%, 11 AST%, 26 USG%

DRPM (30 mpg) / Median = 0.46 (94 players)
4.89 Draymond Green
3.89 Anthony Davis
3.52 Gorgui Dieng
3.33 Paul Millsap
1.91 Kevin Love
1.87 Kristaps Porzingis
1.73 Thaddeus Young
1.72 Markieff Morris
1.22 LaMarcus Aldridge
1.10 Serge Ibaka
0.65 Dirk Nowitzki (26 mpg)
0.64 DeMarcus Cousins (ESPN lists him here because of SAC)
0.63 Marcus Morris
0.46 Blake Griffin
-0.06 Marvin Williams
-1.05 Zach Randolph (25 mpg)
-1.52 Jabari Parker

LaMarcus Aldridge is overrated. Aldridge had his worst season in 10 years and was not named in All-Star. He took a back seat to Kawhi Leonard all season, but isn't able to impact the game in other ways besides his scoring. Looking at the precedent set across the first three positions, it doesn't make sense to hold him in the same esteem (especially when Paul Millsap is a much better defensive player).

Draymond Green is a legitimate DPOY candidate. His OVR is appropriate given his team-wide contributions (contrasting from the case of Klay Thompson).

Kristaps Porzingis should be the best player on the Knicks given his contributions on both ends. His OVR is fine - this is the case that it's Melo who needs to drop.

Dirk and Z-Bo are probably a little low when you look across the pond to other positions.

[Real2KInsider]

Top 10 Centers
91 (+1) DeMarcus Cousins (SAC): 25.7 PER, 56 TS%, 26 AST%, 37 USG%
89 (+4) Marc Gasol (MEM): 20.3 PER, 55 TS%, 25 AST%, 26 USG%
89 (+1) Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN): 26.0 PER, 62 TS%, 13 AST%, 28 USG%
88 (+9) Nikola Jokic (DEN): 26.2 PER, 64 TS%, 29 AST%, 24 USG%
88 (+7) Rudy Gobert (UTA): 23.3 PER, 68 TS%, 6 AST%, 17 USG%
87 (+1) Hassan Whiteside (MIA): 22.6 PER, 58 TS%, 4 AST%, 23 USG%
86 (+9) Joel Embiid (PHI): 24.1 PER, 58 TS%, 16 AST%, 36 USG%
86 (+1) DeAndre Jordan (LAC): 21.8 PER, 67 TS%, 6 AST%, 15 USG%
85 (-2) Andre Drummond (DET): 20.9 PER, 52 TS%, 6 AST%, 22 USG%
83 (+2) Brook Lopez (BKN): 20.4 PER, 58 TS%, 15 AST%, 29 USG%
83 (-3) Al Horford (BOS): 17.7 PER, 55 TS%, 24 AST%, 20 USG%

What about....?
82 (-4) Dwight Howard (ATL): 20.8 PER, 63 TS%, 8 AST%, 19 USG%
82 (-2) Pau Gasol (SAS): 20.2 PER, 58 TS%, 15 AST%, 21 USG%
82 (+4) Myles Turner (IND): 18.4 PER, 59 TS%, 7 AST%, 20 USG%
81 (-1) Jonas Valanciunas (TOR): 20.1 PER, 60 TS%, 4 AST%, 20 USG%

DRPM (30 mpg) / Median 1.16 (70 players)
5.99 Rudy Gobert
3.56 DeAndre Jordan
2.71 Hassan Whiteside
2.53 Dwight Howard (29.7 mpg)
2.48 Myles Turner
2.28 Joel Embiid (25 mpg)
2.26 Nikola Jokic (27 mpg)
1.54 Andre Drummond (29.7 mpg)
1.51 Al Horford
1.41 Steven Adams (29.9 mpg)
1.15 Marcin Gortat
1.07 Tristan Thompson (29.9 mpg)
0.98 Marc Gasol
0.64 DeMarcus Cousins
0.50 Brook Lopez (29.6 mpg)
-1.41 Karl-Anthony Towns

To be clear: It's absolutely RIDICULOUS that Marc Gasol rates this high. Mike Conley is the leader of the Grizzlies by basically every measure. This is a Paul George-caliber reputation rating, even if Gasol had a good year.

Karl Towns was the 3rd best offensive big in the NBA (behind Jokic and Cousins) but he's going to need to put forth more effort on the defensive end (where he ranks last among centers). DRPM does not take position into account - rather it is easier for taller players to be above average NBA players on defense (the inverse is true for guards and offense). It is easy for an undersized guard like J.J. Barea to be a non-factor on defense. It takes a true aversion to defense for a big man to be the same non-factor (or net negative). The upside is Towns has the talent, youth, and ability to turn this around very quickly. But until he does, I can't hold him in the same esteem as other players putting up similar numbers (especially when one considers just how important defense is for a big). Therefore, despite fantastic numbers, Karl Towns is overrated.

Rudy Gobert lead the league in DRPM and his team ranked 3rd defensively after the Spurs/Warriors. He is my pick for DPOY since he's the man primarily responsible for that team ranking. The people who snubbed him from the All-Star team this season (in favor of Hayward) should be ashamed of themselves. He's Mutombo-esque in his impact.

it's pretty silly that Al Horford is considered a top 10 center by 2K Sports. Dwight Howard and Pau Gasol had measurably better seasons. Horford is an excellent passer and shooter, and I've always liked the intangibles he brings to the table, but he's also a leading reason why the Celtics are one of the worst rebounding teams in the league.

[javov10]

Where would you put James Johnson?