MLB The Show 16 OSFM HYBRID V1 Roster Available Now

[AC]

Quote: Originally Posted by DSzymborski

Personality! lol. No worries, I'm a big boy and can handle criticism. I also recognize that I'm an obnoxious, thoroughly ridiculous individual and there are always people that will find me grating. Comes with the job! Should probably address one thing in the thread. You'll sometimes see a weird split, especially in very small statistics because for FanGraphs presentation, I *round* the numbers. So if you have a say, a pitcher that ZiPS is projected to a very few number of innings, you'll sometimes get a wacky presented rate because 0.6 projected HR in, like 20 inning but rounded to 1 is a tremendous difference. I tried early on to show the "true" rates, but then people got mad when they calculated rates from the presented raw rounded stats and they didn't match the real ones and freaked out about that. Explaining to people how a pitcher projected for 4 ER in 9 IP could have a projected ERA of 3.65 or something got people very mad, so I do it this way instead. As for Odubel Herrera, ZiPS uses PBP data in both majors and minors and I was also surprised by his BABIP projection before the season. But really, given that it projected him to have a very high BABIP anyway, I'm not upset with how the projection has turned out. Sometimes when ZiPS surprises me, I'm the one that ends up wrong. I spent half the preseason saying that Clevenger would crush his ZiPS and while it's very early, ZiPS is certainly beating me at that projection. One thing that also should be noted is that in-season regression appears to be less than season-to-season regression as the data strongly support a kind of "stickiness" to some things that are harder to maintain over, for example, three or four seasons.

This is incredible, having you in this thread. Thanks for taking questions. I have no idea about your personality (I assume you have Twitter which I only use for news). Myself and some people who do some work in baseball statistics have been wondering a lot about some of these things.

For one, we were glancing at Gavin Floyd's projection. Is the in season stickiness or rounding error at fault for his 1.89 HR/9 projection? I think it's a reasonable assumption that that isn't true talent. I remember a similar situation with Scott Baker a few years ago.

The stickiness is definitely something I've personally noticed. I think it has some merit to it, but have you looked into that further? It can notice some things Steamer may be too stubborn too but at the same time, Prince Fielder's now at a 95 wRC+ ZiPS projection. His BABIP projection is .020 off of Steamer's and the ISO is much lower which I assume comes from HR/FB (or maybe hitting fewer FB, I dunno). Do you think this stickiness can be a bit of an overreaction sometimes? Is this something you're looking into?

I don't think the Odubel thing is too big an issue, I wouldn't project anyone for a true talent .360 BABIP but he's very fast and has posted a large sample of high BABIP so it's reasonable that it spat that out.

I can appreciate doing things a certain way to avoid backlash, as someone who has done lots of projects on this site myself. And I'm sure the people who made this thread do as well. However, I do find Steamer's 1 PA/IP projections very helpful. I wonder if there's a compromise of sorts because I think that's important, personally.

As a fellow thoroughly obnoxious and ridiculous individual I look forward to hearing back.

[DSzymborski]

Quote: Originally Posted by AC

This is incredible, having you in this thread. Thanks for taking questions. I have no idea about your personality (I assume you have Twitter which I only use for news). Myself and some people who do some work in baseball statistics have been wondering a lot about some of these things. For one, we were glancing at Gavin Floyd's projection. Is the in season stickiness or rounding error at fault for his 1.89 HR/9 projection? I think it's a reasonable assumption that that isn't true talent. I remember a similar situation with Scott Baker a few years ago. The stickiness is definitely something I've personally noticed. I think it has some merit to it, but have you looked into that further? It can notice some things Steamer may be too stubborn too but at the same time, Prince Fielder's now at a 95 wRC+ ZiPS projection. His BABIP projection is .020 off of Steamer's and the ISO is much lower which I assume comes from HR/FB (or maybe hitting fewer FB, I dunno). Do you think this stickiness can be a bit of an overreaction sometimes? Is this something you're looking into? I don't think the Odubel thing is too big an issue, I wouldn't project anyone for a true talent .360 BABIP but he's very fast and has posted a large sample of high BABIP so it's reasonable that it spat that out. I can appreciate doing things a certain way to avoid backlash, as someone who has done lots of projects on this site myself. And I'm sure the people who made this thread do as well. However, I do find Steamer's 1 PA/IP projections very helpful. I wonder if there's a compromise of sorts because I think that's important, personally. As a fellow thoroughly obnoxious and ridiculous individual I look forward to hearing back.

A few things going on with Floyd here. First, ZiPS knows Floyd's general recent injury history and pitchers that have missed that much time tend to have a hard go of it in the short term. Second, ZiPS still has most of his innings as a starter, and that causes a few extra HR. Third, the in-season model is much simpler than season to season, if I project Floyd next year in Toronto, it goes down to about 1.6.

I think projections are going to have trouble with guys like Floyd with such a spotty recent history. ZiPS HR/9 was certainly too high, but I think Steamer's was too low coming into the season too.

[AC]

Quote: Originally Posted by DSzymborski

A few things going on with Floyd here. First, ZiPS knows Floyd's general recent injury history and pitchers that have missed that much time tend to have a hard go of it in the short term. Second, ZiPS still has most of his innings as a starter, and that causes a few extra HR. Third, the in-season model is much simpler than season to season, if I project Floyd next year in Toronto, it goes down to about 1.6. I think projections are going to have trouble with guys like Floyd with such a spotty recent history. ZiPS HR/9 was certainly too high, but I think Steamer's was too low coming into the season too.

Completely understand having a more simple in-season model, but isn't 1.6 HR/9 still pretty high for a guy who gets 50%+ grounders with a lot of K's? Is that maybe some of the stickiness from a 16.7% HR/FB? I know Floyd's been a bit above average in terms of HR/FB over his career but 16.7% is pretty abnormal in his small sample so far.

Agreed that Steamer is probably too low. And yeah, Steamer's percentage of his projected games as starts is way lower than ZiPS (both 4 but Steamer has him pitching 68 versus 13). Just to be clear, I'm not trying to harp on you about one particular projection, I know the machine spits out different things. I'm just using Floyd as an example/symbol as I ask how the machine works, he's just a guy I noticed had projections that were a bit out there.

[dvazquez190]

I really hate to be "that guy". I've looked through both this thread and the original thread you guys had during the creating process. I know you guys mentioned sliders that are specific to this roster and that you guys posted individual sliders that should be changed during sim (Stamina of both starters and relievers).

What I haven't seen (and thus my question) is what do you guys use as a full roster set. I apologize if this has been posted/answered and I just somehow missed it. So do you guys have a specific roster set that is being used or has been created for this roster? If you do i'd love to know just what it is. I've been looking for the right roster set to match with this roster to kick off my franchise.

Thanks

[WaitTilNextYear]

Quote: Originally Posted by dvazquez190

I really hate to be "that guy". I've looked through both this thread and the original thread you guys had during the creating process. I know you guys mentioned sliders that are specific to this roster and that you guys posted individual sliders that should be changed during sim (Stamina of both starters and relievers). What I haven't seen (and thus my question) is what do you guys use as a full roster set. I apologize if this has been posted/answered and I just somehow missed it. So do you guys have a specific roster set that is being used or has been created for this roster? If you do i'd love to know just what it is. I've been looking for the right roster set to match with this roster to kick off my franchise. Thanks

I think you meant full slider set, otherwise I am confused about having a roster set to go with a roster. You haven't seen a slider set because there isn't one. I've posted as much (maybe 4 times?) that everyone should use whatever sliders they feel comfortable with; we don't have a recommendation on that.

[dvazquez190]

Quote: Originally Posted by WaitTilNextYear

I think you meant full slider set, otherwise I am confused about having a roster set to go with a roster. You haven't seen a slider set because there isn't one. I've posted as much (maybe 4 times?) that everyone should use whatever sliders they feel comfortable with; we don't have a recommendation on that.

Ok Thank You. I misunderstood then. I thought you guys were using a specific slider set along with the rosters. Thank you for the reply.

[WaitTilNextYear]

Quote: Originally Posted by dvazquez190

Ok Thank You. I misunderstood then. I thought you guys were using a specific slider set along with the rosters. Thank you for the reply.

The re-rates are substantial, but they don't cause the game to play so much differently that you'd need customized sliders. Really the idea of re-rates is to get everyone rated properly relative to each other. If player A is better at making contact than player B, then player A should have a higher contact attribute and so on. It's more complex than that, but that's really the point, rather than to make the game into a dead ball or steroid era game.

The sim sliders are a different story: SP STAM = 1, RP STAM = 6, Manager hook = 5, Injuries = 8 is what this roster is intended to work best with.

[Viking11]

Just one more question about the sliders. I know to use the adjusted sliders for simulated games in franchise but what about RTTS. Is it possible in that mode as well?