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[sky63]

hello, apologies is this already asked and answered, i was looking and see some guys I'm think they suppose to be the utility guys for some teams and now they only show few second positions, for example brock holt, are this is a mistake that mess up the second positions or this was modified the way they are now, just asking because i don't have my utility guy anymore.....

[WaitTilNextYear]

Quote: Originally Posted by sky63

hello, apologies is this already asked and answered, i was looking and see some guys I'm think they suppose to be the utility guys for some teams and now they only show few second positions, for example brock holt, are this is a mistake that mess up the second positions or this was modified the way they are now, just asking because i don't have my utility guy anymore.....

Yes, this has been addressed 4 or 5 times already. Some utility players have had their eligibilities reduced a bit. My advice is give Holt LF/INF and then set his primary to RF if you ever want to give Mookie a day off and play him there.

[DSzymborski]

Quote: Originally Posted by WaitTilNextYear

I don't know, ZiPS and Steamer tend to exhibit nearly the same predictive value. You can cross check one with the other and it's striking how similar they can be. The reason I switched from ZiPS to Steamer about a year ago is because Dan Szymborski's developed something of a grating personality.

I developed that more than 30 years ago!

[WaitTilNextYear]

LOL. Developed the personality or the projection systems? Sorry, I should just keep my mouth shut from now on, ha.

On a serious note, thanks for all you do with projections. They've been a big part of making this game play like it should and the modding community has used them (free of charge I might add) for many years in some form or fashion. Now if you could just upload your projections w/splits earlier in the year or have FanGraphs add them to your main page there...........

[No.27]

WTNY looks like you managed to prod Dan out of a 3 year posting hibernation. Good to see him back! His work and yours have taken this game to another level in the past couple of years. It's much appreciated.

[DSzymborski]

Quote: Originally Posted by WaitTilNextYear

LOL. Developed the personality or the projection systems? Sorry, I should just keep my mouth shut from now on, ha. On a serious note, thanks for all you do with projections. They've been a big part of making this game play like it should and the modding community has used them (free of charge I might add) for many years in some form or fashion. Now if you could just upload your projections w/splits earlier in the year or have FanGraphs add them to your main page there...........

Personality! lol. No worries, I'm a big boy and can handle criticism. I also recognize that I'm an obnoxious, thoroughly ridiculous individual and there are always people that will find me grating. Comes with the job!

Should probably address one thing in the thread. You'll sometimes see a weird split, especially in very small statistics because for FanGraphs presentation, I *round* the numbers. So if you have a say, a pitcher that ZiPS is projected to a very few number of innings, you'll sometimes get a wacky presented rate because 0.6 projected HR in, like 20 inning but rounded to 1 is a tremendous difference.

I tried early on to show the "true" rates, but then people got mad when they calculated rates from the presented raw rounded stats and they didn't match the real ones and freaked out about that. Explaining to people how a pitcher projected for 4 ER in 9 IP could have a projected ERA of 3.65 or something got people very mad, so I do it this way instead.

As for Odubel Herrera, ZiPS uses PBP data in both majors and minors and I was also surprised by his BABIP projection before the season. But really, given that it projected him to have a very high BABIP anyway, I'm not upset with how the projection has turned out.

Sometimes when ZiPS surprises me, I'm the one that ends up wrong. I spent half the preseason saying that Clevenger would crush his ZiPS and while it's very early, ZiPS is certainly beating me at that projection.

One thing that also should be noted is that in-season regression appears to be less than season-to-season regression as the data strongly support a kind of "stickiness" to some things that are harder to maintain over, for example, three or four seasons.

[WaitTilNextYear]

Quote: Originally Posted by DSzymborski

Personality! lol. No worries, I'm a big boy and can handle criticism. I also recognize that I'm an obnoxious, thoroughly ridiculous individual and there are always people that will find me grating. Comes with the job! Should probably address one thing in the thread. You'll sometimes see a weird split, especially in very small statistics because for FanGraphs presentation, I *round* the numbers. So if you have a say, a pitcher that ZiPS is projected to a very few number of innings, you'll sometimes get a wacky presented rate because 0.6 projected HR in, like 20 inning but rounded to 1 is a tremendous difference. I tried early on to show the "true" rates, but then people got mad when they calculated rates from the presented raw rounded stats and they didn't match the real ones and freaked out about that. Explaining to people how a pitcher projected for 4 ER in 9 IP could have a projected ERA of 3.65 or something got people very mad, so I do it this way instead. As for Odubel Herrera, ZiPS uses PBP data in both majors and minors and I was also surprised by his BABIP projection before the season. But really, given that it projected him to have a very high BABIP anyway, I'm not upset with how the projection has turned out. Sometimes when ZiPS surprises me, I'm the one that ends up wrong. I spent half the preseason saying that Clevenger would crush his ZiPS and while it's very early, ZiPS is certainly beating me at that projection. One thing that also should be noted is that in-season regression appears to be less than season-to-season regression as the data strongly support a kind of "stickiness" to some things that are harder to maintain over, for example, three or four seasons.

That makes sense. Some of this "stickiness" could be a combination of clutch/sequencing/streakiness/conditioning/coaching/psychological on the part of the player (something that might fluctuate on a longer scale than week-to-week or month-to-month). Some of these nether-areas have yet to be adequately flushed out and quantified beyond yes/no arguments as to if they can be found in the stats or not.

Care to share any thoughts on Francisco Lindor while you're around? Seems to be a hot topic in this thread. Some already punching his ticket to Cooperstown (think Derek Jeter w/Gold Glove) and others thinking he's got a BABIP bubble going for him that will burst at some point.

[chilidogbeefcake]

Does this roster work well long term with franchise?

Since generated draft players have Sony ratings, does it mesh well or should I go osfm 3.5 for long term chise