MLB 15 The Show Livestream - Live Gameplay with Senior A.I. Programmer

[WaitTilNextYear]

Quote: Originally Posted by seanjeezy

Gun readings track initial velocity though, so distance is irrelevant since the reading is always taken at 50 ft (the front of the mound). Not quite how it works, but close. The high frame rate Pitch F/X cameras capture a series of images as the ball travels the entire way to the plate, then a most probable path versus time is plotted based on the images, and finally the system follows that computed trajectory back to the point you are suggesting at just beyond the release point inferring constant deceleration to the plate. You are not actually directly measuring a speed as if you were to count off distance and time walking across a field, but you are relying on a mathematical approximation of the ball's flight and taking a single point off that line. But the problem with accuracy of high vs low pitches is twofold: 1. The doppler effect: meaning the cameras have a tougher time bouncing radar off of the lower pitches and getting accurate bounceback due to the angle between the ball's flight and the radar gun's perspective and 2. Lower pitches decelerate more (and inconsistently due to more break) because they are in the air longer/move a greater distance. There's also the issue of ballparks being unique and radar guns not always being in the same spot, which will influence how big of a doppler effect is observed. It's true the errors from doppler etc.. don't amount to more than 1 mph or so and can normalize over several thousand pitches. This all surely doesn't explain the 4-5 mph differences that bobhead mentioned. Here are a couple of nice articles that do a decent job explaining it...oldies but goodies. http://www.hardballtimes.com/tht-liv...-are-on-speed/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/zoooomaya-and-speed-guns/ MLB guys are talking about perceived velocity which is highest up and in, lowest down and away. Here is a terrible example because I do not see any way to filter zone profiles by mph Almost all of Felix's pitches have some kind of downward movement, and I want to say he was number one in baseball in pitches thrown below the zone last year (some article I read on Fangraphs or Grantland, can't remember). The link above is a plot of just his offspeed pitches (since those are the ones most likely to be thrown below the zone), comparing mph between pitches thrown in and out of the strikezone. In MLB The Show, those columns are reversed. Poor example, but it gets the point across.

Every pitch has downward movement due to gravity. I take it that you mean purposeful downward break, in addition to downward movement, due to ball spin?

[WaitTilNextYear]

Quote: Originally Posted by Bobhead

Here's math to disprove the radar gun discrepancy suggested above (by WaitTilNextYear) as the sole cause of this issue. Let's say hypothetically that a high fastball is completely flat with no vertical movement (0 inches). The average strike zone is about 3 feet tall, so a low pitch would of course have 3 feet of vertical movement between release and crossing home plate (the threshold I'll use here). I'll use 59 feet as the distance traveled from the pitcher to home plate, after you account for the pitcher stepping forward before releasing the pitch, and his wingspan. Pythagorean theorem: A^2 + B^2 = C^2. (59*59) + (3*3) = ??? If a high pitch travels 59 feet, the low one will travel 59.076 feet. The theory proposed above is that two pitches traveling at the same speed show different radar gun numbers because of this difference in distance. A radar gun works by counting the amount of time it takes for a ball to travel a pre-defined distance. Let's use a 95 mph (in actual speed) fastball, which converts to 139.33 feet per second. 139.33 feet/second over 59 feet is .423 seconds of time. 139.33 feet/second over 59.076 feet is .424 seconds of time. The radar gun "thinks" both distances are the same, so it returns both speeds based on the distance of 59 feet (not accounting for vertical movement). Unfortunately, when you do the math, that only results in a differential of: 59 / .423 = 139.4799 feet per second, or 95.09999 mph 59 / .424 = 139.1509 feet per second, or 94.8756 mph. So the radar gun issue only accounts for a differential of about .2 Meanwhile, the differences in The Show are documented at anywhere between 2 mph and 5 mph for high vs low pitches. Sorry for the long post, but I can't stress it enough. There's absolutely no factual, scientific, or mathematical basis for the exaggerated velocity differences we currently see in The Show. They do not belong in the game.

Your math looks good so kudos to your intro algebra teacher. I agree that a 2-5 mph difference is better explained by other factors (the programming, not the physics and/or max effort vs lower effort pitches). However, I would add that: 1. assuming no z-break is probably not accurate and the Pythagorean theorem doesn't really describe shapes in 3 dimensions although this error in your "hypotenuse length" would be small. 2. In addition to the distance being a factor, the angle at which the radar microwaves meet a high pitch vs a low pitch is different which will result in a modest difference in doppler effect. And, 3. Many pitches move more than 3 feet in the y-direction taken from release point (~6 feet high depending) to the plate (some could be as low as a few inches off the ground). 4. One of the sides to your triangle is more like 50-55 feet rather than 59 feet due to stride length and release point.

All of those nitpicks accounted for and I still wouldn't expect any more than a 1-2 mph difference between low and high pitches with similar break.

[Bobhead]

Quote: Originally Posted by WaitTilNextYear

Your math looks good so kudos to your intro algebra teacher. I agree that a 2-5 mph difference is better explained by other factors (the programming, not the physics and/or max effort vs lower effort pitches). However, I would add that: 1. assuming no z-break is probably not accurate and the Pythagorean theorem doesn't really describe shapes in 3 dimensions although this error in your "hypotenuse length" would be small. 2. In addition to the distance being a factor, the angle at which the radar microwaves meet a high pitch vs a low pitch is different which will result in a modest difference in doppler effect. And, 3. Many pitches move more than 3 feet in the y-direction taken from release point (~6 feet high depending) to the plate (some could be as low as a few inches off the ground). 4. One of the sides to your triangle is more like 50-55 feet rather than 59 feet due to stride length and release point. All of those nitpicks accounted for and I still wouldn't expect any more than a 1-2 mph difference between low and high pitches with similar break.

The assumption of 0 break makes my numbers higher, not lower, so choosing the more realistic estimate of ~ a few inches would only strength my case. I chose 0 to prevent other people from arguing over my numbers.

There's no evidence to suggest z-movement is not constant between high and low pitches, and thus I felt it was safe to exclude that from my calculations.

We aren't talking about 3 feet of movement, we are talking about 3 additional feet of movement: the only difference between a high pitch and a low pitch is that 3 additional feet in vertical, downward movement. Nothing else matters, since it's constant in both samples.

Yes, I agree. arm lengths range at around 1-2 feet, and most deliveries involve a pretty large step forward. 55 is probably what I should have used.

Edit: oops, I meant the length of one arm, not wingspan.

[WaitTilNextYear]

Quote: Originally Posted by Bobhead

The assumption of 0 break makes my numbers higher, not lower, so choosing the more realistic estimate of ~ a few inches would only strength my case. I chose 0 to prevent other people from arguing over my numbers. There's no evidence to suggest z-movement is not constant between high and low pitches, and thus I felt it was safe to exclude that from my calculations. We aren't talking about 3 feet of movement, we are talking about 3 additional feet of movement: the only difference between a high pitch and a low pitch is that 3 additional feet in vertical, downward movement. Nothing else matters, since it's constant in both samples. Yes, I agree. Wingspans range at around 1-2 feet, and most deliveries involve a pretty large step forward. 55 is probably what I should have used.

I would argue that you can see much larger than a 3 foot difference in the y-direction. The strike zone itself is ~3 feet high, so a high pitch will be more than 3 feet higher than one at the shins. Remember these guys are slightly shorter than 6 feet tall in their stances. Pitches can range from head/neck high to shoe tops.

I also think it's safe to assume more z-break on lower pitches again due to flight time (slightly more ball revolutions, more air resistance that a lower pitch experiences etc..).

That said, I think we both agree with your main point that speed difference of 4-5 mph is quite exaggerated and our physics/geometry/logic is not going to account for all of that.

[authentic]

Guys, the main reason that there's more break on lower pitches is because the pitcher was able to get on top of the ball and produce more spin on the baseball. It's impossible to throw a high slider/curveball with the same break as a low pitch because the pitcher is unable to get on top of the ball. I know this because I pitched for 15 years and played at a high level. There's a reason hanging sliders get hit out of the park a lot. There's a reason they don't break and it's not because of reduced ball revolutions or air resistance. It's rather simple and any pitcher will tell you this. I didn't really read through all the comments because I'm tired but from what I read I think I got it.

[ThreeKing]

What the hell have I just been reading???

[WaitTilNextYear]

Quote: Originally Posted by authentic

Guys, the main reason that there's more break on lower pitches is because the pitcher was able to get on top of the ball and produce more spin on the baseball. It's impossible to throw a high slider/curveball with the same break as a low pitch because the pitcher is unable to get on top of the ball. I know this because I pitched for 15 years and played at a high level. There's a reason hanging sliders get hit out of the park a lot. There's a reason they don't break and it's not because of reduced ball revolutions or air resistance. It's rather simple and any pitcher will tell you this. I didn't really read through all the comments because I'm tired but from what I read I think I got it.

Well the "getting on top of it" is a baseball way to describe it, but what's actually happening is that "getting on top of it" helps "drive the ball down" meaning the ball spins more, so the ball in fact does encounter more air resistance. In fact, air resistance is exactly what makes pitches break--you can easily see this phenomenon when less break occurs at higher altitudes with thinner air. If you spun a curveball in a vacuum, it would not break at all. The direction of the spin dictates the break.

[authentic]

Quote: Originally Posted by WaitTilNextYear

Well the "getting on top of it" is a baseball way to describe it, but what's actually happening is that "getting on top of it" helps "drive the ball down" meaning the ball spins more, so the ball in fact does encounter more air resistance. In fact, air resistance is exactly what makes pitches break--you can easily see this phenomenon when less break occurs at higher altitudes with thinner air. If you spun a curveball in a vacuum, it would not break at all. The direction of the spin dictates the break.

I'm going to have to read through the comments more when I'm awake. I don't really buy into the whole thinner air thing, even though science will back it up. I pitched in Colorado, Arizona, etc throughout my career and never really noticed a difference. I know it's true but I can't say I noticed it. I think the main point I'm trying to make about getting on top of the baseball is that when throwing a slider, if you don't get on top of the ball, it results in a sidewards spin, instead of how a slider is supposed to spin. I wish this game would put more of an emphasis on release points and baseball rotation when it comes to pitching, it would really make the game interesting. There's small calcs but not many.


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