FBGRatings Seeks to Recalibrate Madden Ratings, Change Game

[DCEBB2001]

Quote: Originally Posted by ggsimmonds

I think so. You receive grades from a source and convert those grades to a Madden rating? I've got a background in statistical analysis so that part is fairly direct. And don't worry, I am not trying to move in on your action I'm just wondering on things where that is not a obvious or direct statistical equivalent in what ways could you quantify it. Take route running. If you use Donny's system you just assign numbers at a whim. In what ways could you make route running empirical? Because depending on how the raw data collector operationalizes it the difference between your rating and Donny's rating may only be the distribution.

Statistical analysis is both my career and hobby. I do analysis at work 40-60 hours a week, then do it at home (to the chagrin of my GF) for a few more each day...but...I love it.

Basically, every attribute is on a 0.0-5.0 scale with detail down to the 0.1. The scouts create the grades, my source being one of them. The grades are then sent to me, privately for every player in their database (some 70,000 players as of today). So for a WR's ability to run a route, there is a grade for that that ranges from 0.0 to 5.0. Nobody in the NFL right now has that grade. The highest out there right now is 4.2. That means that there either no player has achieved that perfect 5.0 score, or a player who did achieve the perfect score is no longer on their radar in their present database (Jerry Rice maybe?...I'm not even sure). Now do that for each position for about 10-20 categories depending on the position. The categories are usually very specific. Some, I can't even use in Madden because Madden doesn't have an attribute for them.

There are several ways to interpolate the data, but right now the site uses points at the max, min, and average to determine the polynomial function of the curve. Those are then set to the proper range in Madden ratings (which is very difficult to determine and is often nebulous).

[charter04]

Quote: Originally Posted by ggsimmonds

Does not tell the whole story, but it does tell a good portion of it. What explains the drop in production for Larry? "How fast, strong,agile...how hard a QB throws a ball" Those are all physical though. Stats can tell you how skilled a player is in certain areas of the game. And I think it is fair to say that in the NFL the gap in physical ability is not quite as big as the gap in skills. A WR's ability to gain separation, i.e. run routes, catch the ball, attack the ball at the highest point, get off the line, etc are greater predictors of success than 40times, cone drills, and the shuttle run. The scouting data is derived from in game performance. And to me, in game performance falls under production. Production does not simply mean how many yards a QB threw for.

Seems like not having Kirt Warner at QB and not having Boldin across from might make more of a difference than him not being as good

[DCEBB2001]

Quote: Originally Posted by ggsimmonds

Does not tell the whole story, but it does tell a good portion of it. What explains the drop in production for Larry? "How fast, strong,agile...how hard a QB throws a ball" Those are all physical though. Stats can tell you how skilled a player is in certain areas of the game. And I think it is fair to say that in the NFL the gap in physical ability is not quite as big as the gap in skills. A WR's ability to gain separation, i.e. run routes, catch the ball, attack the ball at the highest point, get off the line, etc are greater predictors of success than 40times, cone drills, and the shuttle run. The scouting data is derived from in game performance. And to me, in game performance falls under production. Production does not simply mean how many yards a QB threw for.

What you are missing, however, is that it is not always correct that skill leads to production. We only use the raw physical measurables to determine the 5 raw physical attributes. Everything else is based on the data and its correlatives.

Performance and production are two very different things. A receiver can run a route and get wide open because he is a great route runner, but if the QB doesn't throw him the ball and throws to someone else, you won't know how good he is from the stat line. They don't tell the whole story. Moneyball doesn't work in football.

That said, I am growing tired of this discussion for tonight. I don't think you will convince me one way or the other, nor I you. So let us just leave it at that. If you use my ratings and rosters made from them cool. If not, well that's cool too. You can even make your own site based on stats if you like. Different strokes for different folks.

[DCEBB2001]

Quote: Originally Posted by charter04

Seems like not having Kirt Warner at QB and not having Boldin across from might make more of a difference than him not being as good

Good, I'm not the only person who sees that.

[ggsimmonds]

Quote: Originally Posted by DCEBB2001

What you are missing, however, is that it is not always correct that skill leads to production. We only use the raw physical measurables to determine the 5 raw physical attributes. Everything else is based on the data and its correlatives. Performance and production are two very different things. A receiver can run a route and get wide open because he is a great route runner, but if the QB doesn't throw him the ball and throws to someone else, you won't know how good he is from the stat line. They don't tell the whole story. Moneyball doesn't work in football. That said, I am growing tired of this discussion for tonight. I don't think you will convince me one way or the other, nor I you. So let us just leave it at that. If you use my ratings and rosters made from them cool. If not, well that's cool too. You can even make your own site based on stats if you like. Different strokes for different folks.

Have a good night but I will leave you with this. We don't need to convince each other because I think we don't actually disagree. I think you correctly pointed out that performance is not the same as production. That is my error, I was kind of using them interchangeably. The reason I did that was because when a WR catches a pass that is not only his production. That is the result of a team.

For your rosters, if EA does the right thing and allows for customizable draft classes I probably will give them a spin.

[michiganfan8620]

Quote: Originally Posted by DCEBB2001

Sorry you disagree, but I go with what the grades say. I don't make this stuff up. I am an expert in data analysis. I interpolate and publish.

I guess I just don't understand how a scout could grade a player so lowly based on the fact that he is suspended if you aren't factoring in production. How is he any less of a player? And another thing, I'm guessing Madden doesn't use historical players in their interpretation of the data. Thus, if a player was considered to have the strongest arm in football, they give him a high rating. Even though he might only be a 4.0 on the 0-5.0 scale, which I'm assuming equals a 80 rating, he gets a high 90 rating in order to fit the programming of the game (making sure he can throw the ball as far as he actually can in real life). And then they go from there with the rest of the players. They are just focused on the present time, and how players currently in the league compare to each other, not on how they compare to all-time greats. At least that's what I'm assuming Madden does.

[ggsimmonds]

Quote: Originally Posted by DCEBB2001

Statistical analysis is both my career and hobby. I do analysis at work 40-60 hours a week, then do it at home (to the chagrin of my GF) for a few more each day...but...I love it. Basically, every attribute is on a 0.0-5.0 scale with detail down to the 0.1. The scouts create the grades, my source being one of them. The grades are then sent to me, privately for every player in their database (some 70,000 players as of today). So for a WR's ability to run a route, there is a grade for that that ranges from 0.0 to 5.0. Nobody in the NFL right now has that grade. The highest out there right now is 4.2. That means that there either no player has achieved that perfect 5.0 score, or a player who did achieve the perfect score is no longer on their radar in their present database (Jerry Rice maybe?...I'm not even sure). Now do that for each position for about 10-20 categories depending on the position. The categories are usually very specific. Some, I can't even use in Madden because Madden doesn't have an attribute for them. There are several ways to interpolate the data, but right now the site uses points at the max, min, and average to determine the polynomial function of the curve. Those are then set to the proper range in Madden ratings (which is very difficult to determine and is often nebulous).

(Respond to this whenever you wish, not trying to hold you hostage)

I am entering graduate school at UMD College Park studying Public Policy. So I am still something of a duckling learning to fly when it comes to statistical analysis.

But for this, I think my interest is more of a scouting perspective. What goes into a grade in route running? Number of steps/yards covered, getting off the line, breakdown (how many steps do they take), foot planting, things like that?

what about coverage skills? It seems easier to grade someone running routes as you would have a slightly easier time doing that without a defender than measuring coverage skills without a WR.

[JHTJ]

I couldn't even make it past the Dolphins before I saw some serious issues with the ratings on that site. I mean, real bad. Now I’m not suggesting players as a whole are underrated, or the team is collectively better than depicted at all. I could care less, honestly. I will say though that rating Pro Bowl C Mike Pouncey as the 4th worst player on the team is a travesty if Ive ever seen one. Rated 53 behind two undrafted Centers fighting for roster spots is crazy. You have an undrafted ROOKIE rated ahead of All SEC, All American, Pro Bowl, PFF rated top 10 Pouncey.

I'm sure undertaking and implementing this rating process is a difficult task so this post comes with all respect due. I might be willing to concede that considering his injury pouncey had a slightly off year, but I watch every game - Every snap my Fins play repeatedly and I can say unequivocally that rating is garbage. I don't expect you to defend this rating because, quite honestly, i don't think it's possible. The fact is its your site and you can publish what you like. I just wanted to point out what I saw as a glaring inaccuracy.