MLB 14 The Show OSFM Hybrid Roster - V1 Release

[authentic]

Alright guys, I've passed the roster on to one more person. I am out for the night. ILFT is planning on getting started at 7:30 am. We are about 40% done I would say. I think a release tomorrow is almost a guarantee, pitch edits wise. I would post as many suggestions as possible so Willard has an idea what to look for tomorrow. It's very possible the pitch edit version could be a refined version with edits that are needed.

[jeschafer_1]

Quote: Originally Posted by WaitTilNextYear

Had the chance to dabble for a few hours with this set and I have to say, it's a killer set. It's really amazing. The error rate is really low and I'm almost speechless. Little things that you might not notice (like removal of duplicate Jordany Valdespins) unless you're paying real close attention have all gone into countless hours of work. Kudos to you guys once again!! To help with getting a more polished set with the pitch edits release upcoming, I thought I'd start consolidating the requests for corrections in this thread that I've seen as well as some of my own observations...(you guys have been working hard on these for a month and all we do is whine, lol ). Now mind you, these suggestions are completely ignorant of any algorithms you may be using to turn stats into ratings, but these changes should positively impact the roster as a whole. Yasiel Puig needs large boost to throwing arm (maybe overall defense too) Nolan Arenado needs large boost to all defensive attributes Juan Lagares needs large boost to all defensive attributes (the guy is always on Sports Center) Mason Williams B/T handedness are reversed Marcus Semien is a bit too studly in sims...I'd recommend decrease to contract/power Avisail Garcia needs his contact lowered (contact > 75 is for elites looking at other guys) Nick Castellanos needs his contact lowered (contact > 75 is for elites looking at other guys) Eric Hosmer needs his contact lowered (contact > 75 is for elites looking at other guys) JP Arencibia I think you know...ahem, contact should be lowered Bobby Abreu all attributes seem inflated (2002 version??) Anthony Rizzo could use a small boost to vision/discipline Darwin Barney needs contact lowered by about 15 Kris Bryant should have power comparable to Sano, Baez etc.. but is rated 20 points lower. Bryant could also use a slight contact bump. This Kris Bryant resembles Ty Wigginton more than Bryant, lol Javy Baez hate to say this as a Cubs fan, but his power is too high by 5-10 points, he's too fast (87), and his arm strength needs a boost Aroldis Chapman should be maxed on K/9, velo. Is only registering 9-10 K/9 in sims...should be closer to 15. DJ LeMahieu needs his contact lowered (contact > 75 is for elites looking at other guys) Dee Gordon needs his contact lowered (contact > 75 is for elites looking at other guys) Andrew Cashner should probably receive a velo boost from 82 Mike Morse needs contact/power boost Jonathan Singleton needs contact/power boost. Most advanced 1B prospect in baseball only has 49/39 contact. Domingo Tapia could use velo boost from 68 Joey Gallo needs slight power decrease (his power is the highest in the whole roster set...more than Davis, Stanton, or Miggy...and he's yet to see an MLB pitch), needs boost in contact. He Ks a lot but not the low BA that people think. Jean Segura needs his contact lowered (contact > 75 is for elites looking at other guys) Derek Jeter his fielding is very slightly too high Yangervis Solarte needs vision/discipline boost, small power boost Dellin Betances is probably the most improved player in baseball, needs massive K/9, H/9, BB/9 increases Brian Dozier needs power boost I'm sure I didn't catch everything, so please suggest things that I may have missed to help Willard and Co. out.

Ike Davis change # from 34 to 15
Also add Reese McGuire to the Pirates

Thanks

[WaitTilNextYear]

By the way...about the offense/pitching balance. I just tried a few edits and sims to see if I could improve the situation and while it's still early, it appears really, really promising.

First, I ran some sims of the stock Hybrid v1.0 and collected data.

Then I edited every batter on the 25-man roster in the AL East with +10 contact boost vs RHP and LHP.

Then I ran some more sims and collected data.

More data is needed, but this appears to fix the sim stats quite nicely. I was seeing, for the AL East clubs, 10 point boost in team AVG, 10-20 point boost in OBP, and 10-20 point boost in SLG. I also saw 30-70 more runs scored per AL East team per season. AL East ERA's also climbed by 20-40 points from an average of 3.61 to 3.94. The BBs allowed went up by up to 50 BB per club. Pitching strikeouts remained virtually unchanged. The batting average leaderboard was well represented by AL East players at season's end.

When the pitch edits version hybrid v2.0 drops today (?), I will use that and run some further tests to see if universal contact boost is the answer to improving on what is already a great start.

[Willard76]

Quote: Originally Posted by WaitTilNextYear

Had the chance to dabble for a few hours with this set and I have to say, it's a killer set. It's really amazing. The error rate is really low and I'm almost speechless. Little things that you might not notice (like removal of duplicate Jordany Valdespins) unless you're paying real close attention have all gone into countless hours of work. Kudos to you guys once again!! To help with getting a more polished set with the pitch edits release upcoming, I thought I'd start consolidating the requests for corrections in this thread that I've seen as well as some of my own observations...(you guys have been working hard on these for a month and all we do is whine, lol ). Now mind you, these suggestions are completely ignorant of any algorithms you may be using to turn stats into ratings, but these changes should positively impact the roster as a whole. Yasiel Puig needs large boost to throwing arm (maybe overall defense too) Nolan Arenado needs large boost to all defensive attributes Juan Lagares needs large boost to all defensive attributes (the guy is always on Sports Center) Mason Williams B/T handedness are reversed Marcus Semien is a bit too studly in sims...I'd recommend decrease to contract/power Avisail Garcia needs his contact lowered (contact > 75 is for elites looking at other guys) Nick Castellanos needs his contact lowered (contact > 75 is for elites looking at other guys) Eric Hosmer needs his contact lowered (contact > 75 is for elites looking at other guys) JP Arencibia I think you know...ahem, contact should be lowered Bobby Abreu all attributes seem inflated (2002 version??) Anthony Rizzo could use a small boost to vision/discipline Darwin Barney needs contact lowered by about 15 Kris Bryant should have power comparable to Sano, Baez etc.. but is rated 20 points lower. Bryant could also use a slight contact bump. This Kris Bryant resembles Ty Wigginton more than Bryant, lol Javy Baez hate to say this as a Cubs fan, but his power is too high by 5-10 points, he's too fast (87), and his arm strength needs a boost Aroldis Chapman should be maxed on K/9, velo. Is only registering 9-10 K/9 in sims...should be closer to 15. DJ LeMahieu needs his contact lowered (contact > 75 is for elites looking at other guys) Dee Gordon needs his contact lowered (contact > 75 is for elites looking at other guys) Andrew Cashner should probably receive a velo boost from 82 Mike Morse needs contact/power boost Jonathan Singleton needs contact/power boost. Most advanced 1B prospect in baseball only has 49/39 contact. Domingo Tapia could use velo boost from 68 Joey Gallo needs slight power decrease (his power is the highest in the whole roster set...more than Davis, Stanton, or Miggy...and he's yet to see an MLB pitch), needs boost in contact. He Ks a lot but not the low BA that people think. Jean Segura needs his contact lowered (contact > 75 is for elites looking at other guys) Derek Jeter his fielding is very slightly too high Yangervis Solarte needs vision/discipline boost, small power boost Dellin Betances is probably the most improved player in baseball, needs massive K/9, H/9, BB/9 increases Brian Dozier needs power boost I'm sure I didn't catch everything, so please suggest things that I may have missed to help Willard and Co. out.

Quote: Originally Posted by Mattchu12

So I've been testing out some sliders, these have gotten me anywhere between 5 guys to over 10 guys hitting over .300. Start with the sliders at five each and then adjust accordingly: Human Contact - 6 Human Power - 7 Human Solid Hits - 6 Human Starter Stamina - 7 Human Reliever Stamina - 2 CPU Contact - 7 CPU Power - 6 CPU Timing - 7 CPU Solid Hits - 7 CPU Starter Stamina - 7 CPU Reliever Stamina - 2 CPU Pitcher Control - 4 CPU Pitcher Consistency - 4 CPU Strike Frequency - 4 CPU Manager Hook - 7 Baserunner Speed - 6 Not a perfect world, but definitely a start. I've tinkered a bit more but haven't gotten very different results. I had one test season where there were about 15 guys batting over .300, and then the next test just 5 or 6, so who knows for sure. It's almost always around 20-25 guys hitting over .290 though, so that's kind of nice.

Guys the above 2 posts are what we need. Thank you. I see we have had some eager beavers active on the thread during the night, it is going to take me a while to read through the 10 or so pages since I went to bed and answer what I can. I am about to leave for work and will try to get to everything during the day. If you guys can wait until I get caught up for more questions that would be awesome as my breaks during the work day are 5 minutes here and there.

Willard

[Willard76]

A ton of stuff to try and provide insight and answers.

Quote: Originally Posted by buczneverlose

Tell me not to look at the ratings, that's what everything is based off of. Look at the batting averages after a simmed season. Pitchers own this roster set. Only three players hit over .300 in the first simmed season. Give me a break. These rosters need some major work.

Pitchers own baseball right now and the batting average issue drove me freakin nuts until I tested our roster against others. Every roster I tested including this one came back with the same results - all over the map and rarely the same. More info below on why some stuff happens

Quote: Originally Posted by WaitTilNextYear

To be honest, some people won't play until the defensive ratings have had similar tender love and care as Jeezy gives the pitch edits, but luckily for me I am not that ocd about these rosters. Pitch edits mark the end of my personal rosteritis. The problem with trying to standardize defensive ratings is that state-of-the-art defensive metrics (that are not proprietary info) are awful. Even if you guys use a system, there are bound to be problems with that--i.e. good OFs with bad FLDG %. Good SSs with bad UZR. Those stats fluctuate so much year over year it's kind of comical. I will probably run through the hybrid set as I do my pitch edits and if I see anything glaring like a noodle-armed Puig, I'll just bump the ratings in my personal set. Willard - I have run some sims using your roster vs OSFM v2.0 and can PM you data on how that's turning out if you'd like. The least I can do after you guys cranked out this masterpiece....some of the variations I am already getting out of Hybrid+MLB14 sim engine in limited sims is pretty impressive.

Please let me know what you find.

Quote: Originally Posted by buczneverlose

Quick question about pitch edits When you edit the pitch types, velocity, break and control, does it factor into the overall rating or is it just the stamina, clutch, hits, hr, walks, k's and what not that determines a pitchers overall? Seems like the overall stays the same when I was testing it out but I just want to make sure .

It can dramatically affect a pitcher

Quote: Originally Posted by WaitTilNextYear

It's true but then again it really depends on your units of measurement. How important is the # of .300 hitters really? We already know OBP is much more important. That being said, I agree that the pitching has an edge mostly due to decreased BB levels. Even so, I quoted you just my 1st 2 sims...would really need 100 sims to make any conclusions. And I'm not going there, lol. It'll be interesting to see, however, if the pitch edits will move the needle away from pitching or not. I don't think anyone can say for sure until the edits are done.

I ran well over 100 sims and recorder data that nearly drove me to drink!

Quote: Originally Posted by KBLover

Yeah, probably because chances vary so much or the type of chances. Some balls are just harder than others, even when hit to "routine" depths/locations. Probably would need a sort of 3-year data set and that's hard (impossible?) to come by. It's too bad because defense is important for sure, probably more so than pitch types in this game (you can get anyone out on any pitch, but fielding being off alters that ability for fielders). That said - it wouldn't stop me from using the rosters. I could rate them similar to other players with the ability (rate Puig at least as high as other strong RF arms in the roster), etc.

I agree that defense is very important and I will go through the roster when I get it back tonight before next release. Biggest problem is aside from fielding percentage - everything is opinion - reaction, arm all ate based on scouting scales and there is not a ton of info out there. For the most part I feel we got it right with the exception of probably less then 20 players

Quote: Originally Posted by romeosdistress

my only complaint is i think kris bryant ratings are way below what he is doing in the minor leagues. he went from a 70 to 61 overall. i know overall doesnt matter as much but he was also downgraded in the power department. he is mashing in aa right now. then i see baez power ratings and they are in the 70s lol. they are both top 10 prospects. .337 .431 .641 1.072 with 14 hrs and 43 rbis... not sure how his power goes from 60s to 50s. seems like a mistake.

Bryant was my doing - really with his potential and the numbers given to him he is going to be the best 3b in the game in 2 years so that had to be downgraded. I just may have done too much

Quote: Originally Posted by Troopershorty51

Hey Willard, haven't gotten a chance to download the rosters yet but I have a quick question. When you say "don't look at overall" do you just mean "do not compare the overall of a pitcher to that of a third basemen, or that of a third basemen to that of a center fielder," as there are different formulas for their overalls? Can overalls still be used within a single position to get a general sense of how well the player compares to the others of that position? Like an 80 rated shortstop is clearly better than a 74 rated shortstop, or is this not the case? Just something I was wondering as I play on doing a fantasy draft 'chise and this could definitely effect that.

It is tough to say. I will use an example off the top of my head from the Blue Jays and this is an IRL debate in TO right now. Both Anthony Gose and Colby Rasmus have the same overall - 73. Gose is a guy with a ton of defensive ability and speed to burn, but low power and ok contact. Rasmus on the otherhand hss decent speed, good reaction and fielding ability but no arm. He is a .250 hitter with incredible power. Which type of player do you want?

Quote: Originally Posted by WaitTilNextYear

By the way...about the offense/pitching balance. I just tried a few edits and sims to see if I could improve the situation and while it's still early, it appears really, really promising. First, I ran some sims of the stock Hybrid v1.0 and collected data. Then I edited every batter on the 25-man roster in the AL East with +10 contact boost vs RHP and LHP. Then I ran some more sims and collected data. More data is needed, but this appears to fix the sim stats quite nicely. I was seeing, for the AL East clubs, 10 point boost in team AVG, 10-20 point boost in OBP, and 10-20 point boost in SLG. I also saw 30-70 more runs scored per AL East team per season. AL East ERA's also climbed by 20-40 points from an average of 3.61 to 3.94. The BBs allowed went up by up to 50 BB per club. Pitching strikeouts remained virtually unchanged. The batting average leaderboard was well represented by AL East players at season's end. When the pitch edits version hybrid v2.0 drops today (?), I will use that and run some further tests to see if universal contact boost is the answer to improving on what is already a great start.

Pm me later with results after a bunch of sims. I did try that myself among other things and found what you got 1 sim and then the same bad numbers the next. What concerns me with the general boost is guys like Miggy, Posey and Trout don't have a ton of room to grow and for the most part are doing what they should time in and out.

Also contact only increases a players ability to make contact on a line, and power adds loft and distance the ball will travel.

Please keep trying, if you find consistent results that is an easy fix.

I did already boost some players before release - maybe they needed more.

Willard

[jbaker2575]

These rosters are pretty sexy.

Only concern I have is every draft class is going to have two or three instant starters because the current players ratings are so much lower.

The only solution I can come up with us to boost every hitter and pitche rating by 10 and pray for the best...

P.S. I love how Nick Swisher is a 63 overall. Easily the worst player the Indians have ever acquired. He makes my soul ache every time I watch him bat. Only 3.5 more years of him making $14m

[Coper3000]

Quote: Originally Posted by jbaker2575

These rosters are pretty sexy. Only concern I have is every draft class is going to have two or three instant starters because the current players ratings are so much lower. The only solution I can come up with us to boost every hitter and pitche rating by 10 and pray for the best... P.S. I love how Nick Swisher is a 63 overall. Easily the worst player the Indians have ever acquired. He makes my soul ache every time I watch him bat. Only 3.5 more years of him making $14m

I agree with this. I have never used these rosters before, but wow, they are absolutely incredible at first glance. I simmed one season and thought everything looked really good. The pitchers were dominant, as mentioned before, but at midway point (through a season) I would rather see Yonder Alonso batting .220 with 4 HRs than him batting .315 with 17 dingers.

But, in the past what has been the best way to keep up with drafted players, as far as them being too good, or not good enough? Or do they mix well since OVR means very little, if anything?

[The Kid 24]

Quote: Originally Posted by Mattchu12

So I've been testing out some sliders, these have gotten me anywhere between 5 guys to over 10 guys hitting over .300. Start with the sliders at five each and then adjust accordingly: Human Contact - 6 Human Power - 7 Human Solid Hits - 6 Human Starter Stamina - 7 Human Reliever Stamina - 2 CPU Contact - 7 CPU Power - 6 CPU Timing - 7 CPU Solid Hits - 7 CPU Starter Stamina - 7 CPU Reliever Stamina - 2 CPU Pitcher Control - 4 CPU Pitcher Consistency - 4 CPU Strike Frequency - 4 CPU Manager Hook - 7 Baserunner Speed - 6 Not a perfect world, but definitely a start. I've tinkered a bit more but haven't gotten very different results. I had one test season where there were about 15 guys batting over .300, and then the next test just 5 or 6, so who knows for sure. It's almost always around 20-25 guys hitting over .290 though, so that's kind of nice.

So use these sliders for when simming games?