Sports Daily: The Success of Short QBs in the NFL

[Fistandilius]

I don't watch college sports much. There's just too many games for me to watch that and try to keep up with pros. I don't want to give up that much time.

Everything I've read about Manziel though... they say he runs when he has guys open down the field... that they don't know what he's seeing when he reads the defense. There is also the off the field issues, which he says are behind him.

Regardless, I wish the NFL and the fans as well would wake up and realize that drafting a QB is a crap shoot, and drafting a QB high is too much of a risk to take for your franchise.

No matter how you spin the numbers.. super bowls.. passing records... qb ratings.. The percentages of players who are drafted in the first round and are successful is extremely low.

There have been 7 QB's that I know of since 1980 that were drafted in the first round that won a super bowl with the team that drafted them. Jim McMahon, Troy Aikman, Ben Rothlisberger, Joe Flacco, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, and Drew Bledsoe.

Flacco, Rothlisberger, Rodgers, Aikman... they had a pretty good team around them already when they were taken. I was pretty young when Jim McMahon played, but the bears were 12th in the league when they drafted him, and were 3rd in the league by his second season and then 1st in his third season. So that tells me they must have been pretty good as well. You can't count Bledsoe because Tom Brady was the starting QB that year. That takes your number down to 6.

I don't know how many quarterbacks have been taken in the first round since 1980 and I'm not going to look it up and count them right here for this post. But if I had to guess, I'd say the average is about 3 per draft. I'm going to be generous and say that there's only 2 qb's taken in the first round on average. So in 34 drafts, that gives us 68 quarterbacks taken in the first round. 6 of them won a superbowl for the team that took them. That's less than 9% of all the quarterbacks drafted.

Then you can go down the all time passing lists and look at guys like Manning, Brady, Farve, Brees, Moon, Elway, Marino, Montana, Testaverde... yes, I think even Kerry Collins is in the top 20.. How many of those QB's played for multiple teams or weren't drafted in the first round? By my count, off of the names I grabbed off the top of my head, only Marino fits the bill. Some people would try to credit Elway, but the Colts drafted Elway. He refused to play there. The Broncos had to go trade for him.

If you try to look at qb rating, I believe 20-25% of qb's taken in the first round from 1990 on had a qb rating over 80. I actually looked up those QB's and did the statistics a few years back when Matt Ryan was a rookie, so that guess is fairly accurate, but not 100%.

And yet every year teams think they know better than everyone else and they're the ones that are going to have the winning lottery ticket.

It's not worth it.

The teams that are winning championships and finding quality quarterbacks aren't doing it in the first round of the draft.

[khaliib]

The problem with JM is that his game and the excitement about him is based off of his off the-cuff style of play.
In today's NFL, one concussion/injury and you have to change away from that style that got you drafted (ie M. Vick).

Not if, but when JM encounters that moment, now he has to go away from that and try and be a drop back QB, which all mobile QB's from college have struggled to transition to when forced to do so.

Kaepernick struggled when they tried to reign in his running, then Harbaugh said that's why they drafted him and went back to running Pistol. When CK encounters that moment, he too will struggle to become the typical drop back QB.

Most NFL coach's are not like JH, and being a top QB pick is a huge investment.

I just see JM's reckless style of play his desire to be the focus and throw stuff back into people face (making him unwilling to change) as the reason to why he may not succeed.

[Seahawk76]

Other than height and the ability to get out of the pocket and make plays, I don't really see that many similarities between Russell Wilson and Johnny Manziel at this point. Wilson is unnaturally cool under pressure, runs only as a last resort, knows how to avoid big hits, and rarely makes mistakes. Manziel seems more hot-headed, reckless, quicker to run, more willing to force the ball when the receiver isn't open, and can get frustrated if things aren't going his way.

That's not to say Manziel can't succeed in the NFL but he would be a different type of QB than Wilson.

[Rocky]

I think a good QB is a good QB regardless of his height.

Height can help you if you are a QB who likes to read and scan the defense and sits tough in the pocket. If you like to move in the pocket and use your elusiveness then I can see how being a smaller QB can benefit you.

[NDAlum]

Size matters, period.

Is it everything? No
Can smaller guys overcome with exceptional skills and ability? Of course and there have been some who have done just this.

[ich2233]

Size doesn't MATTER. It's an ADVANTAGE. Definitely, no doubt about that. Drew Brees looks all angled up when he drops back because he's making sure he can see over the line. Even his throwing motion is tailored to eliminate the fact that he's short. If Tony Romo was 2 inches shorter when he first came into the league he wouldn't be there. His motion looks quirky now but it's been refined, he used to chuck everything from below his shoulder almost.

-So there's that. Throwing Mechanics+Accuracy (hand size factored into that).

-Then the case of tucking when he's got guys open. He has the Arm Strength to make every pass in the NFL, for sure. And I don't think he really runs because he wants the attention. I think after Mike Vick everyone has finally realized that, in the NFL, no one is Fast enough and no one is Strong enough to simply just take over a game. Everyone's a Freak. The Thing with Manziel is whether or not he will be able to recognize defenses and be comfortable in the pocket long enough to do so. All QB's have an internal clock in their heads from the day they started playing the position. Running QB's grow up with that clock shorter because they know they have the ability to run away. Immobile QB's are forced to stay put, stay calm even when feeling pressure, read and pass as they are getting clobbered. It's much more difficult to get hit in the pocket and pass where you can't see where pressure is coming from, than it is to scramble and throw as you get hit by someone who is right in front of you. Like the guy said earlier, Wilson is so good because he is UNNATURALLY cool and confident under pressure. Nothing phases that dude. You can't scout that.
-Simply put we're just going to have to see if he likes to get hit. QB's gotta be a little off in the heads. Tom Brady gets lit up by Ray Lewis and he comes up hootin' and hollerin' like he just got his rocks off at a strip club. Manziel can take the hit, he's a tough dude, but does he love doin' it?
-Probably the most important thing is how much time he's willing to invest in Film study and Coverage recognition. Peyton Manning is Peyton Manning because he has computer programming software lodged into his brain. That man recognizes coverage faster than the blink of an eye. His ability to absorb defensive information from film study/experience, retain it, and regurgitate it back onto the field of play is equal to none. Most if not all pro athletes have a significant, SIGNIFICANT amount of work ethic compared to people like us. Even when people question Clowney's work habits, they are still wayyyy beyond any of ours (in the physical sense anyway) It's the one's who have that sickening, maddening type of work ethic that are a cut above. The one's that are so obsessed they literally can't sleep or even get through a normal day without doing something to progress their ability. Going back to Romo's Mechanics, great article in SI said he would spend 2-3 hours before and after practice throwing to receivers. After that he couldn't sit still for more than an hour or two at home before he was out throwing again. He spent 6-8 hours a day simply throwing a football. Sounds like a mental disability to me lol, but that's why an undrafted free agent from an unheard of D1AA college can lead that pathetic excuse for a Professional Athletic Organization known as the Dallas Cowboys to 4th in PPG.


P.S. Just want everyone on here to remember what I'm about to say here so I can get bragging rights next year
There isn't a Quarterback in this draft that is going to make a significant impact in the NFL. Maybe in a few years one of them will learn how to win some games, but no Elite QB's in this draft. Probably not even a Pro-Bowler.

[Chrisksaint]

The thing with shorts guys like say Brees or Wilson is they have really good fundamentals that are probably better then most. Look at the tape of Brees and you see him use every little thing he can get to be taller(little jumps on screens, standing tall in the pocket, etc) and my favorite of Wilson is using 5-7 step drop backs to his advantage to avoid pass rushers.

To me height will have nothing to do with Manziel's success or failures. In CFB he made crazy plays, but to me they were always just that. I never saw particular great accuracy, bad decisions that a lot of times worked out, crumbled when he couldn't move(both LSU games)

[Find_the_Door]

Quote: Originally Posted by Fistandilius

There have been 7 QB's that I know of since 1980 that were drafted in the first round that won a super bowl with the team that drafted them. Jim McMahon, Troy Aikman, Ben Rothlisberger, Joe Flacco, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, and Drew Bledsoe. Flacco, Rothlisberger, Rodgers, Aikman... they had a pretty good team around them already when they were taken.

Whoa whoa whoa - Aikman did not inherit a good football team at all?

He was a key piece of one that was later built. Aikman went 1-15 his first season as a pro.... that tells you all about the team. Irvin almost got traded numerous times.