OS Roundtable: Could Another Company Succeed with Another NCAA Football Game?

[fcboiler87]

I think the answer is yes. However, I think the answer is that no, it will not happen.

Oh and to comment on the sales of the college basketball game... the sales weren't good because those games sucked. Horrible. Terrible. CH2k8 was the best game ever but because it was on the 2k platform didn't get much advertising love and so they shut it down. EA's college basketball has never even been a shell of a basketball game.

[rudyjuly2]

NCAA football sales are much higher than college bball. And NCAA football sales are typically better tham NBA, MLB and NHL games so a 2nd game could happen but it depends on licensing and even more important the dynasty mode. Dynasty is huge and EA would be very hard to beat. I doubt anyone takes on EA here.

[jyoung]

NCAA Football 11 sales, according to VGChartz:

Quote:

http://gamrreview.vgchartz.com/browse.php?name=ncaa+11 360 - 0.81 million PS3 - 0.61 million PS2 - 0.17 million total sales = 1.59 million copies

Compare this to where they were at the close of last-gen with NCAA Football 06:

Quote:

http://gamrreview.vgchartz.com/brows...der=Popularity PS2 - 1.39 million Xbox - 0.69 million total sales = 2.08 million

NCAA Football 11 sales have dropped 25% from where they were five years ago on last gen.

Now College Hoops 2K8 sales:

Quote:

http://gamrreview.vgchartz.com/brows...der=Popularity 360 - 0.18 million PS3 - 0.11 million PS2 - 0.18 million total sales = 0.47 million

And NCAA Basketball 10's sales:

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http://gamrreview.vgchartz.com/brows...der=Popularity 360 - 0.29 million PS3 - 0.26 million total sales = 0.55 million

Not much difference between EA's and 2K's NCAA Basketball games. They just don't sell very well, it seems like.

Finally, here is Madden 11's sales, just to show how much more it sells currently than the NCAA Football franchise:

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http://gamrreview.vgchartz.com/brows...der=Popularity 360 - 2.30 million PS3 - 1.86 million total sales = 4.16 million

That is not including the Wii and PSP versions, which have sold 0.49 million and 0.32 million, respectively.

So if there is room for another football game in the marketplace, it seems like it would be in the NFL, not in the NCAA.

It would have to sell a lot more than All Pro Football 2K8, though:

Quote:

http://gamrreview.vgchartz.com/brows...der=Popularity 360 - 0.27 million PS3 - 0.14 million total sales = 0.41 million

As we see with the NCAA basketball games, selling half a million games just isn't enough these days for a licensed sports game to remain profitable.

[jbrew2411]

wEEman, good stuff. One thing I see from those numbers is the difference between NCAA 11 sales vs NCAA 06. NCAA 06 was the pinnacle for the series. I think that was the last great NCAA game. While there are only X number of sales per year there would be no room for 2 games. The only way it might work, and it is a small chance, is the cost to produce the game was cut way down. If only they could find a way for the Chinese to make the game for them. That seems to be the only way to produce thing cheaply any more.

So from those number the answer would be they could but they would lose money. Chalk one up for EA.

[jyoung]

For cross-genre comparisons, here is NHL 11:

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http://gamrreview.vgchartz.com/brows...der=Popularity 360 - 0.54 million PS3 - 0.34 million Wii (NHL Slapshot) - 0.19 million total sales = 1.07 million

Not that far behind NCAA Football. You can see why 2K sports still wants to get in the NHL market.

Now for baseball, MLB 10: The Show

Quote:

http://gamrreview.vgchartz.com/brows...der=Popularity PS3 - 0.61 million PSP - 0.19 million PS2 - 0.16 million total sales = 0.96 million

Just a bit less sales than NHL, but it is also at the disadvantage of not releasing on the 360, which probably would put it over.

Now, MLB 2K10:

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http://gamrreview.vgchartz.com/brows...der=Popularity 360 - 0.47 million PS3 - 0.14 million PS2 - 0.11 million Wii - 0.20 million PSP - 0.05 million DS - 0.11 million total sales = 1.08 million

Again, right on par with the NHL, despite the fact that MLB 2K releases on a large number of platforms.

For basketball, NBA 2K11:

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http://gamrreview.vgchartz.com/brows...der=Popularity 360 - 1.03 million PS3 - 0.78 million PSP - 0.23 million PS2 - 0.17 million Wii - 0.20 million PC - 0.09 million total sales = 2.50 million

More than double the sales numbers of the NHL and MLB games, though again, it benefits from releasing on a large number of platforms.

Only FIFA and Madden sell more copies than NBA 2K, and they, too, release on a bunch of different systems.

Speaking of FIFA 11:

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http://gamrreview.vgchartz.com/brows...der=Popularity 360 - 2.84 million PS3 - 3.86 million PSP - 0.51 million Wii - 0.70 million PS2 - 0.54 million PC - 0.06 million DS - 0.38 million total sales = 8.89 million

FIFA is the number one selling sports franchise by far. Only Madden comes close at 5.34 million total sales.

So in conclusion, the order for sales by major sports franchises would be:

Quote:

1. FIFA - 8.89 million 2. Madden - 5.34 million 3. NBA 2K - 2.50 million 4. NCAA Football - 1.59 million 5. MLB 2K - 1.08 million 6. NHL - 1.07 million 7. MLB The Show - 0.96 million

These are worldwide sales, not just North American.

[Gotmadskillzson]

Well of course FIFA would be number one, soccer is the number one sport in the world.

[canes21]

Quote: Originally Posted by wEEman33

I don't think anyone would argue that 2K doesn't have the ability to make a better college football game than EA. The question is how is 2K going to make that game sell? The NCAA sports games market is significantly smaller than the market for professional sports games. College Hoops 2K8, which I would argue is still the best NCAA sports game of all time, sold so poorly that the series was shut down for being non-profitable. Why would a football game be any different?

College Hoops was stopped because the NCAA was asking for a ridiculous price compared to the number of sales for a NCAAB game. I'd say for the size of the market, Choops 2k8 sold pretty well. It was under 100,000 less copies than NCAA 10 was, and that was the only game out that time.

[fistofrage]

Now College Hoops 2K8 sales:


Quote:





http://gamrreview.vgchartz.com/brows...der=Popularity

360 - 0.18 million
PS3 - 0.11 million
PS2 - 0.18 million

total sales = 0.47 million



And NCAA Basketball 10's sales:


Quote:





http://gamrreview.vgchartz.com/brows...der=Popularity

360 - 0.29 million
PS3 - 0.26 million

total sales = 0.55 million



You actually should show NCAA Basketball 2008 sales along with College Hoop 2k8 sales to show total market size that year. It would appear that even though there were more 2010 NCAA sales than 2k8 basketball sales, the total college basketball buying market has shrunk as well as the NCAA football market.