March Madness Time Machine Hypothetical

[albionmoonlight]

I recall asking something like this in the past. I thought I would turn it into more of a puzzler-type hypo.

Let's say that future you comes back from late April and meets present you the day after the March Madness bracket is announced with a time machine and a print out of a perfect bracket. If you were given that bracket, how much money could you turn it into?

Some parameters.

(1) You have 100% knowledge and trust that this is you from the future giving you truthful information and not playing a joke. But you have no way of conveying that level of trust to others. (So you could not sell it to a gambling syndicate for instance.)

(2) You are able to pull together $50,000 in cash in short order. I pulled this number out of the air. If you would rather start with more or less in your hypothetical to make it more interesting, feel free. But I do think that it's important to have some grounding with a starting amount.

(3) You can affect the future both in direct and in butterfly effect sorts of ways.

So, for instance, if you place a big enough bet that it shifts the line on a game, it is possible that some 18 yr old guard who felt disrespected by being a 2 point underdog in the old reality will suddenly play complacently if your big bet on his team makes them 1 point favorites.

Also, the publicity of your possibly having a perfect bracket (if you choose to go that route) might end up getting attention in a way that affects the games.

Also, if you believe that these games are fixed, your big bets might shift that as well.

(4) The bracket you have shows only winners, not final scores.

(5) Assume that you live in a place where sports gambling is legal (or that your transportation costs to get to such a place are negligible).

(6) Casinos and law enforcement, as always, reserve the right to refuse you service or otherwise accuse you of cheating, etc. if they detect interesting patterns.

With those parameters, how much could you make?

[murrayyyyy]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Also, if you believe that these games are fixed, your big bets might shift that as well.

(4) The bracket you have shows only winners, not final scores.

(5) Assume that you live in a place where sports gambling is legal (or that your transportation costs to get to such a place are negligible).

(6) Casinos and law enforcement, as always, reserve the right to refuse you service or otherwise accuse you of cheating, etc. if they detect interesting patterns.

With those parameters, how much could you make?

In theory, a shit load just based off one game. #4 is what makes it possible. You said I know the winners of the game ahead of time and there is always an upset in the first round of the bracket. Let's say I had last years bracket and I know MTSU beats Michigan State. With 50k, I doubt if any book takes anything over 5 dimes since I'm known in every casino and 5 dimes won't shift the lines too much if I'm placing a moneyline bet instead of the spread (because you stated I know the winner) so I don't care if the line moves a little after I bet.

Drop 5k in Vegas @ a Westgate, William Hill, MGM, Wynn, CG sportsbook. That's 25k spent right there. Stations won't give me 5 dimes as they are small time. A moneyline bet should be worth +1400 @ the -16.5 spread that Michigan State was favored by. So I'd expect anywhere between +1200 and 1400 on those bets depending on the half a point (difference between -16 and -16.5). 5k should pull in 70k on a moneyline bet so that's potentially 350k off 25k.

So I got 25k more to spend. I'll throw 5k into bitcoin and bet on something like nitrogen. With a little luck I can buy the bitcoin at a lower price and just make money off the bit coin. Take the other 20k and use it to live bet the Michigan St. MTSU game and any other first round upsets I know of (since I know the winners). UALR, Hawaii and Stephen F Austin are ones that come to mind. Just on live betting in the first half with moneylines that might have been higher than the opening line with them moving all the time. Those lines were +7.5, +6, +6 respectively.

Why wouldn't I just save it up for MTSU live bet just mins after tip? I can't spend it all at once and I need to build up money to live bet whatever the last of those games are (players don't know the line is moving during a game). So I'd sit around and place moneyline bets on those 4 games in game until the end of the game (even with no value near the end because I'm winning). I don't know how much I could make live betting because of the order of the games and the time period when someone stops accepting my bets (unless I had a syndicate live betting at different casinos off a 4k bankroll). With this being a two day project with games all day I could have them rotate casinos with everything located close to the strip. If that MTSU game is last in the live betting and no one has caught on to us... Half a million jumping from casino to casino dropping live bets after tip?