Fantasy Football 2016 Advice Thread

[Vince, Pt. II]

Figured it's about time to get something like this going. I've got a difficult keeper choice, thanks to some incredible luck last year. Keep four:

Odell Beckham Jr
David Johnson
Devonta Freeman
Alshon Jeffery
Cam Newton

I think Cam is the odd man out here.

[bhlloy]

Firstly, congrats on winning your league this year. Secondly, what pick are you giving up for each (or just straight keeper and draft)?

I can see a scenario where you keep Cam over Jeffery or Freeman, depending on what other QB's are hitting the draft and if you are giving up a higher draft pick one way or the other.

Personally I'm staying away from either of those guys unless I get a great value - Jeffrey seems like one of the more likely guys in the league to get a big injury and the Falcons offense looks horrid, and I really see Freeman being the guy he was in the second half of the year last year and coming back to earth - plus I'm still not convinced Coleman isn't the more talented back.

That being said in a straight standard draft with tons of other good QB options out there - yeah I'll take the first four and feel pretty good about myself.

[bhlloy]

DOLA - I guess I'll keep it going with a question of my own. I got the short end of the straw in my serious league and ended up with the second overall pick, which is probably even more of a bad thing this year with Antonio Brown probably the clear #1 and I get the long wait between picks.

Assuming Brown does get taken #1, who is your #2 guy and what strategy are you thinking for the first few rounds? 1/2 point PPR, other than that pretty standard.

[albionmoonlight]

I agree with you that #2 is probably a poor place to be.

I might go with David Johnson there (or whomever you consider to be the top RB). This is the year of the WR, but RB is still the scarcest fantasy position. I'd make sure to lock one up.

As for overall strategy, if I don't get Gronk, I am waiting to get a TE until everyone else gets one. I also would wait on QB. There isn't a superduper QB this year (IMO). I'm stocking up on RB/WR early and getting, say, Marriota after everyone else has drafted a QB.

Oh, and I love getting M. Bennett late if you do wait on a TE. Considering the Pats offense, he's a what-the-hell starter every week, and he has the upside of a TE1 if Gronk goes down for any length of time.

[albionmoonlight]

As a Saints fan, I will also throw out the following two observations:

Don't overdraft/overpay for Coby Fleener. Brees loves his TEs, but I'm not getting a good vibe from him.

Do try to grab Mike Thomas late or buy him for $3. I think that he'll take over Colston's seam work and be a red zone target.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

As a Saints fan, I will also throw out the following two observations:

Don't overdraft/overpay for Coby Fleener. Brees loves his TEs, but I'm not getting a good vibe from him.

Do try to grab Mike Thomas late or buy him for $3. I think that he'll take over Colston's seam work and be a red zone target.

I'm a Colts fan so I saw a lot of Fleener in Indy. He seemed like a middle of the road to slightly above average starting TE in real life when he played with Luck. He made some athletic plays but made some drops to. Looking at his ADP, I agree he's probably being over drafted.

[panerd]

It seems like every advice site is going heavy on WR's on the first two rounds. Since the leagues I play in are pretty casual and most of them will go straight cheat sheet is this the year to stick with RB/RB and fish for wideouts later?

[HomerSimpson98]

Originally Posted by panerd

It seems like every advice site is going heavy on WR's on the first two rounds. Since the leagues I play in are pretty casual and most of them will go straight cheat sheet is this the year to stick with RB/RB and fish for wideouts later?

I did that and my wideouts are total shit. If I had to do over again, I'd probably go RB/WR. But if youve got an absolute monster RB staring at you in the face in round 2, its hard to pass up. I know.

[Coffee Warlord]

David Johnson and Ezekial Elliot being ranked the #4 and #6 players on Yahoo is...interesting.

[bhlloy]

I go back and forth on Elliott. One one hand he's obviously insanely talented and running behind probably the best line in the league and they are going to rely on the run game even more with Romo out. On the other, he hasn't played a single NFL regular season down yet, Romo being out could just mean the offense is horrible and he has two proven backups behind him.

It would make me nervous but if he's still there towards the end of the first round, I think I would probably bite the bullet. The upside is tremendous

[Coffee Warlord]

Yeah, I wouldn't trust Elliot with a mid/high round 1st, and over in Arizona, I could easily see Chris Johnson vulturing scores and carries away from David Johnson.

[Coffee Warlord]

I'll just say fuckit and go with Gronk if he's there at #8. Screw RBs and WRs.

[Butter]

So, I had the last pick in a 12-team standard league draft. Snake draft, luckily.

Here's what I ended up with (round picked in parentheses):

QB Tom Brady (5)
BN Dak Prescott (11)
RB Lamar Miller (2)
RB CJ Anderson (3)
BN Derrick Henry (10)
WR Keenan Allen (4)
WR Golden Tate (6)
BN Allen Hurns (8)
TE Rob Gronkowski (1)
BN Kyle Rudolph (14)
K Stephen Gostkowski (7)
BN Blair Walsh (12)
D/ST LA Rams (9)
BN Chicago Bears (13)

Any comments? This is my paid league where I got Brady in Round 6 last year, drafted Jordan Reed as a reserve TE, picked up David Johnson early on via waivers, and had DeAndre Hopkins as my #2 receiver (behind Dez Bryant) and I basically cruised to winning the league.

I'm not thrilled with this draft, but would love to hear feedback. I considered Aaron Rodgers with the 1st pick of round 2, and probably should've gotten a backup TE long before round 14.

[albionmoonlight]

That's not a bad draft. I like the Brady/Prescott combo--though I might have just passed on Brady and waited a bit more for a QB.

And who cares about your backup TE with Gronk? Once you picked him, you weren't going TE again anytime soon. So why not wait and just fill it in at the end? If he gets injured, you are screwed there, but if any first round pick gets injured, you are screwed.

[HomerSimpson98]

cant believe you got Allen in the late 3rd/early 4th

[Coffee Warlord]

You may as well cut the Bears D now, and save yourself the hassle.

[dubb93]

Drafted today, 12 team paid league:

QB Brady
QB Kirk Cousins
RB Lamar Miller
RB Todd Gurley
RB Melvin Gordon
RB Shaun Draughn
WR Mike Evans
WR Randall Cobb
WR Eric Decker
WR Risard Matthews
WR Chris Hogan
TE Julius Thomas
D Vikings
Steelers kicker

[Coffee Warlord]

And the draft. Not horrid, not great.

QB Brady
QB Derek Carr
RB Mark Ingram
RB Melvin Gordon
RB Arian Foster
RB Ameer Abdullah
RB Justin Forsett
RB Jerick McKinnon
WR Randall Cobb
WR Demaryius Thomas
WR John Brown
WR Corey Coleman
TE Gronk

DEF Buffalo
K Brandon McManus

[AlexB]

Underwhelmed with my team this year, keeper league - ends up being able to keep 3-4 good players in general, rookies have v.little keeper cost. 14 team PPR league

Tannehill
Osweiler

Lacy
Blount
Riddick
Crowell
B.Powell

Floyd
Landry
J.Nelson
Aiken
Fuller
E.Rogers

Cook
Barnidge

Gano
J.Brown

JJ Watt
J. Hughes

V.Miller
Clowney

Clinton-Dix

It's a very MOR team, some potential sleepers, but a lot has to go my way to be competitive this year

[Vince, Pt. II]

Originally Posted by Vince, Pt. II

Figured it's about time to get something like this going. I've got a difficult keeper choice, thanks to some incredible luck last year. Keep four:

Odell Beckham Jr
David Johnson
Devonta Freeman
Alshon Jeffery
Cam Newton

I think Cam is the odd man out here.

There is literally no keeper cost. And strangely enough I was only the runner-up last year. I joined the league a few years after it started, and have talked them down from six keepers per year already.

[panerd]

I have Cousins as my backup for Brady in a 10-team somewhat shallow league. Ride with a potential 10-15 point guy every week or go for a bigger splash/bigger risk at QB the first 4 weeks. I know he was solid last year but I am having trouble wrapping my head around Cousins as my imaginary QB/team captain.

[wustin]

I'm benching Cam Newton for Dak this week.

[molson]

I just did my first draft-only league - 35 rounds, and that's it, no transactions after the draft. It's a "best ball" format, a standard 12-player starting lineup, but the computer sets the lineup after the results every week, counting your highest scorer at every position. It was pretty intense and I recommend it. Every single defense was drafted, as were quite a few players who are currently not on NFL rosters.

[Suicane75]

Was it among friends, or a service? I'm looking for one more cash league and would to play a best ball league.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by panerd

I have Cousins as my backup for Brady in a 10-team somewhat shallow league. Ride with a potential 10-15 point guy every week or go for a bigger splash/bigger risk at QB the first 4 weeks. I know he was solid last year but I am having trouble wrapping my head around Cousins as my imaginary QB/team captain.

Depends on who is available. Cousins has a rather favorable schedule to start the season from a fantasy standpoint. 3 of the 4 games at home and the best pass defense he'll play is Pittsburgh who is around the middle of the pack in that area.

[albionmoonlight]

Larry Fitzgerald or Frank Gore as flex?

[Vince, Pt. II]

PPR? I'd say Gore either way, I think, but that's a tough call.

I have two issues, one a seemingly easy one that I'm waffling on, and the other much more of a toss-up:

Roethlisberger @ WAS
or
Carr @ NO

Bortles vs GB
Or
Prescott vs NYG

[Coffee Warlord]

Over/Under on how many games I get from Arian Foster this year?

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Over/Under on how many games I get from Arian Foster this year?

Given his injury history, I say no more than five.

[HomerSimpson98]

Am I the only one that got bad information on Jamaal Charles prior to the draft and took him too high (early 2nd of 12-team)? The more info that comes out has me wondering if he is going to be worth a damn at all this year.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by Vince, Pt. II

PPR? I'd say Gore either way, I think, but that's a tough call.

I have two issues, one a seemingly easy one that I'm waffling on, and the other much more of a toss-up:

Roethlisberger @ WAS
or
Carr @ NO

Bortles vs GB
Or
Prescott vs NYG

People talking about Prescott as a viable fantasy starter after one good preseason are insane, IMO. Maybe after three weeks if he's done it against some regular season defenses, but I roll with Bortles every single time there.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by HomerSimpson98

Am I the only one that got bad information on Jamaal Charles prior to the draft and took him too high (early 2nd of 12-team)? The more info that comes out has me wondering if he is going to be worth a damn at all this year.

I almost took him. Did get Terrance West late who I was told would be the starter but then Baltimore brought back Forsett and he's telling everyone he is i the starter.

[bhlloy]

That Baltimore backfield is something to stay away from unless Dixon comes back and is clearly the starter after midseason IMO.

Forsett is actually a FA in both my serious leagues, but I just can't see anyone getting more than 40% of the touches. I have West in one league as well but not even considering starting him until it all shakes out.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

That Baltimore backfield is something to stay away from unless Dixon comes back and is clearly the starter after midseason IMO.

Forsett is actually a FA in both my serious leagues, but I just can't see anyone getting more than 40% of the touches. I have West in one league as well but not even considering starting him until it all shakes out.

I actually got both Forsett and West on my bench. They came incredibly cheap. Trestman likes to feature one running back during a game so one of those two should be "the guy". And Baltimore should have a good offense.

Basically I thought it was a low risk, high reward move. Better than hoping someone like Ayaji breaks out behind that garbage o-line in Miami.

[muns]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

People talking about Prescott as a viable fantasy starter after one good preseason are insane, IMO. Maybe after three weeks if he's done it against some regular season defenses, but I roll with Bortles every single time there.

I don't know. Mariota was decent enough last year, and threw what 4 TD passes his first game as a pro? Dak has a better situation, so I can see where there is so much love for him. Daily fantasy also helps with the love pushing.

[Vince, Pt. II]

Pretty much a perfect storm kind of situation. Great O-Line, top flight receiver, solid run game, crappy defense to play against.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by muns

I don't know. Mariota was decent enough last year, and threw what 4 TD passes his first game as a pro? Dak has a better situation, so I can see where there is so much love for him. Daily fantasy also helps with the love pushing.

Ok, and after that Mariota was completely hit and miss and ended up the 24th ranked QB. Put it this way, both services I actually trust have him as a low end QB2 this week and Bortles a low end QB1. That's not even close to me.

Sure, Prescott could be great week 1. He could just as easily be one in a long line of preseason stud QBs who never did it once it matters. If he still looks as good after a few weeks I will hold my hands up and say I was wrong, but I still think it's crazy to be starting a fourth round rookie over an established fantasy option. We will see who is right

[muns]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Ok, and after that Mariota was completely hit and miss and ended up the 24th ranked QB. Put it this way, both services I actually trust have him as a low end QB2 this week and Bortles a low end QB1. That's not even close to me.

Sure, Prescott could be great week 1. He could just as easily be one in a long line of preseason stud QBs who never did it once it matters. If he still looks as good after a few weeks I will hold my hands up and say I was wrong, but I still think it's crazy to be starting a fourth round rookie over an established fantasy option. We will see who is right

Don't get me wrong. I am by no means giving him a nod or saying he is going to be great, but I am not po-poing him either. I have Aaron Rodgers as my fantasy QB in my season league, cause in the 3rd round there wasn't a lot of value left in my 12 team league from my stand point.

However, with draft kings, I had to go with Dak this week because he was cheapest QB there, and everyone else is going with him. I need to keep up with the Joneses. Honestly, I would have rather gone somewhere else, but am being forced to take him, and when you look at what Vince said above, its easy to talk yourself into he might be ok. Line is legit, has the weapons around him, plus he can run. Daily fantasy is pushing Dak all over because on both sites he is the cheapest out there.

[Vince, Pt. II]

And realize that I'm not saying I'm choosing Dak over Bortles forever - just this week. I'm not crazy

[RainMaker]

Does anyone have insight into Coby Fleener? I figured a Saints starting TE should at least be decent (I mean Ben Watson had a huge year and Fleener is better). But his week 1 performance was really bad. Should I stick with him or start looking elsewhere?

[Coffee Warlord]

Abdullah or Mr. Glass (Arian Foster) flex pick this week.

[lungs]

How would you all handle Sammy Watkins tonight? I have Mike Wallace, John Brown, and Devin Funchess behind Watkins and Dez Bryant.

Christine Michael is about my only option I could flex in place of a WR. Help is on the way in the form of Brandon Marshall but the trade won't go through until Saturday.

[thesloppy]

Watkins was an early pick for me, but I'm abandoning him already. That offense looks problematic regardless of his foot, and I think I'd rather cut bait with him now and just remove him from my WR juggling act.

[Butter]

Yeah, that offense is a hot mess even with a healthy Watkins.

[bhlloy]

I think Brandon Marshall at the top of the third may be the worst fantasy pick I've ever made in a league I've cared about. He's either not interested or DONE.

[bhlloy]

Now he's definitely done

[wustin]

I won this week but Woodhead, Peterson, and Chris Ivory are my running backs.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by wustin

I won this week but Woodhead, Peterson, and Chris Ivory are my running backs.

oof talk about bad luck.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Does anyone have insight into Coby Fleener? I figured a Saints starting TE should at least be decent (I mean Ben Watson had a huge year and Fleener is better). But his week 1 performance was really bad. Should I stick with him or start looking elsewhere?

Elsewhere. Saints tried to get him involved this week with very little success. There are three targets (Snead, Cooks, Thomas) clearly better than him, and one (Cadet) arguably better.

It's a Payton/Brees offense, so there will be a random game or two where the defense gameplans to take away the other guys, and Fleener catches 8 balls for 110 yards. But I think that you have better options out there.

[QuikSand]

It's the right time of year to be thinking about SELL HIGH and BUY LOW candidates.

Obvious BUY LOW seems to be Russell Wilson. Someone spent a fairly early draft pick to get him, likely, so that's tricky... but it seems likely he could be had for less than face value if you expect a reversion to form. That line, tho.

Let's wait a few weeks on our Bucs (Winston and maybe Doug Martin) and target them after their next few games which are against tough defenses. But I think JW is a buy-low guy at some point this season. This week is tempting, though, as a potential low point. If he's on your league waiver wire, and you can eat the bench slot for a few weeks, that's a possible play.

I continue to see Matthew Stafford passing a lot, and his lack of TDs this year masks his effectiveness this year. I am already invested, but he's a solid fantasy guy for this season, I think.

Gurley? Don't know how easily he could be pried away from someone who invested so early. That's tough, but it HAS to get better than this, right?

Maybe see if the itchy Spencer Ware owner things he needs to sell high. Because he may not be.

Mark Ingram is better than this, I think. After a terrible week two, maybe he comes more easily.

Are Darren Sproles and Shane vereen both moving into more serious fantasy viability, getting carries to go with their catches? If so...



SELL HIGH... hmmm...I don't know what the perceived value for Philip Rivers is. I drafted him as a "late round value" guy myself, so that doesn't suggest there's a ton of faith to begin with. But he's off to a hot start, and I think an even trade of him for someone who might have more staying power could work for this year.


What else you got?