2015-2016 Democratic Primary Season - Bernie Math

[Solecismic]

I thought we could use items dedicated to the primary issues. Candidacies, polls, issues, attitudes.

As always, let's try to keep these items pleasant.

Candidates so far...

Hillary Clinton, former First Lady, former Senator from New York, former Secretary of State.

Bernie Sanders, former Mayor of Burlington, former Congressman from Vermont, current Senator from Vermont, independent, but has an agreement with the Democrats to caucus in return for tenure/committee membership.

Joe Biden, former Senator from Delaware, current Vice President, decided not to run, 10/21/2015.

Martin O'Malley, former Mayor of Baltimore, former Governor of Maryland, apparent inspiration for The Wire. Withdrew on 2/1/16.

Jim Webb, former Secretary of the Navy, former Senator from Virginia, withdrew on 10/20/2015.

Lincoln Chafee, former Senator from Rhode Island, former Governor of Rhode Island, Republican as a senator, independent as a governor, now Democrat, withdrew on 10/23/2015.

The first debate was on 10/13/2015 in Las Vegas on CNN.

The second debate was on 11/15/2015 in Des Moines, Iowa on CBS.

The third debate was on 12/19/2015 in Goffstown, NH, on ABC.

The fourth debate was on 1/17/2016 in Charleston, SC on NBC.

The fifth debate was on 2/11/2016 in Milwaukee on PBS.

The sixth debate is scheduled for 3/6/2016 in Flint, MI on CNN.

Polling indicates Sanders has made up enormous ground in recent weeks and may be pretty much tied nationally.

Clinton has an overwhelming lead in pledged superdelegates, but pledges are not binding, as Clinton found out eight years ago.

The Iowa Caucus was on February 1, and was pretty much a dead heat between Clinton and Sanders, Clinton winning by four state delegates.

Sanders won the New Hampshire Primary on February 9 by more than 20 points.

Clinton won the Nevada Caucus on February 20 by a small margin.

[BillJasper]

I have a feeling that Clinton gets beat by the Republican nominee, so long as they run a moderate.

[Grover]

C'mon Bernie.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by BillJasper

Republican nominee, so long as they run a moderate.

[BillJasper]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

I agree it is a huge if. But I could see Jeb Bush beating her.

[ISiddiqui]

So, Suffolk actually did a New Hampshire GOP Presidential Primary poll that came out today. Jeb Bush wins with 14%, but who is that right behind him.... none other than the Donald! Trump had 11% in the Suffolk poll.

NBC News/Wall Street Journal did some hypo Presidential matchups and contrary to any thought of moderates doing well against Hillary, Hillary has a 8 point lead over Jeb Bush (in addition to a 14 point lead over Scott Walker and 10 point lead over Marco Rubio).

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by BillJasper

I agree it is a huge if. But I could see Jeb Bush beating her.

As of right now, Clinton has an average of 5.3 lead over Bush in the polls:

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Bush vs. Clinton

I don't really see Bush making it up on her, especially not after some of his recent flubs.

[JPhillips]

Bush has a lot of money behind him and that can't be discounted, but he doesn't generate much passion. Who would be excited by a Bush victory?

[Solecismic]

My sense from the media is that they're ABH (anyone but Hillary). They want Sanders, but know it's a tough sell in the General. O'Malley is well positioned, as Biden would be if he weren't Saturday Night Lived as the ill-tempered guy who makes constant gaffes.

In the end, my guess is that Hillary prevails and the media reluctantly learns to love her again. But O'Malley may surprise us.

[ISiddiqui]

Indeed... he (Jeb) seems Romney-esque that way. I also think in the battle of the last names for more independent types will be frightened by another Bush than another Clinton (if you think about how those Presidencies ended... which is slightly unfair for GHW Bush, but there it is).

[JPhillips]

I think the Baltimore riots weigh down O'Malley. He's going to have a hard time explaining some of his past actions to the Dem base.

[Chief Rum]

Just what we need, another potential Bush versus Clinton election, only with candidates even less inspiring than the first time.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I think the Baltimore riots weigh down O'Malley. He's going to have a hard time explaining some of his past actions to the Dem base.

Yeah.. it's almost killed him off, I think. Not a single Dem I know (granted not a massive sample size) thinks well of O'Malley after Baltimore.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Just what we need, another potential Bush versus Clinton election, only with candidates even less inspiring than the first time.

Yeah, we have the potential to have a Bush or Clinton for 28 out of 36 years. Not quite a monarchy, but...

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I think the Baltimore riots weigh down O'Malley. He's going to have a hard time explaining some of his past actions to the Dem base.

He's not running for office in Maryland. And he won't spend any time in Maryland, because it's a solid blue state and its primary is well after Super Tuesday. If he gains traction, he's viable. People will forget, or want to forget.

Same reason why Biden still polls at 10% even though he's not announced and he's not all that popular. Elizabeth Warren would rocket to 30% tomorrow if she were interested. The Democrats need another candidate or two right now.

[Dutch]

President Hillary and First Lady Bill. Case closed.

[path12]

I've admired Bernie for a long time but cannot conceive of a scenario where he gets the nod.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Yeah, we have the potential to have a Bush or Clinton for 28 out of 36 years. Not quite a monarchy, but...

Random trivia. I was born in Summer 1976. 2008 was the first election in my life in which the GOP ticket did not contain a Dole or a Bush.

Powerful families tend to stay powerful.

[albionmoonlight]

dola:

And a super early guess just for the hell of it in case I am right. I will predict the tickets as

Clinton/Webb
Rubio/Walker

And I think I agree with Nate Silver that, based on all the fundamentals, it really is a 50/50 race right now.

[RainMaker]

Am I wrong in thinking that no one stands a chance against Clinton in the primary? There doesn't seem to be any up and coming star who could derail her.

Has there been any talk of Cuomo running?

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Am I wrong in thinking that no one stands a chance against Clinton in the primary? There doesn't seem to be any up and coming star who could derail her.

Has there been any talk of Cuomo running?

She'll only have trouble if she hires Mark Penn again.

Cuomo would stand zero chance in this primary. The base hates him and his constituency is basically the same as Clinton's. He'll bide his time or be like his father and never run.

[tarcone]

Why is Clinton the huge favorite? Do the Dems think it will be Bill 2? Or is she that great a leader? Or is it the lack of other viable candidates?

[ISiddiqui]

Well, us Dems are looking for someone a bit more progressive than Bill . And Hillary has been - she was the head of the left faction in the WH during the Bill era, and has explicitly repudiated some of the Bill policies. A lot of us like her resume as well. And we're convinced she'll actually fight unlike President Obama for the first 6 years of his administration (or at least push back more).

Oh, and a good deal of us voted for her in the 2008 Primaries and have been waiting for this day for 7 years now.

[Ryche]

Really want to see Webb get into the race, he's the one candidate from either side that I would be happy to vote for at this point.

[SackAttack]

Bernie Sanders strikes me as a better challenger from the left to Clinton than Liz Warren. He's old enough that if he leaves the Senate, he's probably not leaving 20 or 30 years of work on the table, so he can champion liberal causes without materially harming their ability to pass the Senate. Liz Warren serves Democratic/liberal ideals best right where she is, as a potential lioness of the Senate.

Also, part of me just wants him to get the nomination so Republican heads can explode when they see what a socialist ACTUALLY LOOKS LIKE.

I'm not super enthused with Clinton, but the Republicans I'd vote for would never escape the primary. I'd LIKE to see Jim Webb get the nod, but I'd settle for Webb as a #2. If he'd take the job, which I'm not at all certain he would.

[stevew]

As long as Sanders can avoid peaking too soon, I really believe in his chances. He'll likely be able to murder Hilary in a debate and the Clintons bring all kinds of baggage. He is going to need to appear virile though as age is obviously a major issue to his detriment.

[Edward64]

Had to look it up.

Bernie is 73
Hillary is 67
Biden is 72
O'Malley is 52

Reagan was 69 when elected. It's probably makeup but Hillary and Biden look better than Bernie.

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

Also, part of me just wants him to get the nomination so Republican heads can explode when they see what a socialist ACTUALLY LOOKS LIKE.

Weren't you mad about this in the other thread?

If you gaze too long into the abyss...

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by Dutch

Weren't you mad about this in the other thread?

If you gaze too long into the abyss...

What does "what a socialist actually looks like" have to do with my distaste for Scott Walker?

...are you suggesting Scott Walker is actually a socialist and that WI Republicans have been hoodwinked?

[Dutch]

No, I was remembering these lines.

Originally Posted by Sack Attack

Likewise, I didn't say Republicans are mouth-breathers or that conservatives are mouth-breathers. I said that people who judge the quality of a politician first or mainly on whether he "pisses off the Democrat Party" fall into that camp. Because supporting a candidate on that basis is explicitly not about values. That's about straight up being willing to be an asshole to other people if it pisses off people whose politics you don't like.

[Dutch]

I should preface that by saying I dont really care...just sounded awfully similar.

[kcchief19]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Why is Clinton the huge favorite? Do the Dems think it will be Bill 2? Or is she that great a leader? Or is it the lack of other viable candidates?

I think there are a few reasons. Bill is certainly one. I think a lot of rank-and-file Dems would view a Hillary presidency as Bill's third term, and after the last 16 years Dems would love to revive the Clinton Era. She's also extremely smart. I think she's just as smart as Bill, although Bill is much more suave and politically savvy. There are many people who would like to see a woman president, and no one is more qualified or capable than Hillary right now. Democrats also want to win, and they think she can win.

Hillary ran a great general election campaign in the 2008 primary. Hillary would have beat McCain by even more than Obama did. She just ran a horrible primary campaign. She ran to the middle too early in the primary campaign and let Obama position himself as the anti-Bush when Democrats wanted exactly that.

I don't think Hillary is a master campaigner or politician. She still has a bit too much "get the job done" approach rather than doing things the politically correct way. Hillary's potential biggest opponent in the primary season is herself.

[claphamsa]

Hillary has the Clinton machine behind her... and after citizens united money is #1, #2 and #3. It would take an Obama level personality to beat the money...and there isnt one.

[kcchief19]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

dola:

And a super early guess just for the hell of it in case I am right. I will predict the tickets as

Clinton/Webb
Rubio/Walker

And I think I agree with Nate Silver that, based on all the fundamentals, it really is a 50/50 race right now.

I hate guessing this far out but I'll take a WAG too just in case I'm right.

Clinton/Castro
Bush/Kasich

If Clinton's the nominee, she needs someone different from her. If she's running against someone from Florida, she needs someone who helps here there. Julian Castro ticks off a lot of boxes. Helps that he's smart and a Democrat in a red state. Granted, he's never really had to win a race in deep red area, but he could certainly help make Florida a race and at least make the GOP spend resources in Texas. If Rubio is not on the GOP, having the first Hispanic on a presidential ticket would be a huge legacy for Clinton and the party.

My gut right now says it's a Bush-Walker race. I think those two guys are going to suck up too much money for Rubio and others to make it a race. Walker is actually better positioned to win a primary, but I think Bush will make it a question as the whether he's presidential and electable. Given that I think Bush and Walker are going to go at each other, will make it hard to put him on the ticket. If Bush is the nominee, I think Kasich is a no-brainer from an electoral college perspective. Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida -- a Democrat absolutely must win 2 of the 3 to win the White House right now. The GOP could tilt the board in a big way with a Florida/Ohio ticket.

[kcchief19]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

My sense from the media is that they're ABH (anyone but Hillary). They want Sanders, but know it's a tough sell in the General. O'Malley is well positioned, as Biden would be if he weren't Saturday Night Lived as the ill-tempered guy who makes constant gaffes.

In the end, my guess is that Hillary prevails and the media reluctantly learns to love her again. But O'Malley may surprise us.

If there is a media bias, it's towards a good stor;y. A Hillary coronation isn't a good story. They need conflict. The media would love to see a contentious Democratic race regardless of who is running. That's why you're getting people actually pretending Bernie Sanders is a qualified candidate -- it makes for an interesting story.

I may change my opinion if and when we see more of him, but my impression is that O'Malley may be the dullest Democrat in modern times. He's more stiff than Gore on his stiffest day. He may be smart, but he always sounds like he's struggling to articulate what he's saying.

I think the only other Democrat with the star power to take on Hillary is Liz Warren. I still don't think she's 100% polished and I think she's a bit too lefty to win a general election, but she would give Hillary fits just like Obama did.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by kcchief19

I think there are a few reasons. Bill is certainly one. I think a lot of rank-and-file Dems would view a Hillary presidency as Bill's third term, and after the last 16 years Dems would love to revive the Clinton Era. She's also extremely smart. I think she's just as smart as Bill, although Bill is much more suave and politically savvy. There are many people who would like to see a woman president, and no one is more qualified or capable than Hillary right now. Democrats also want to win, and they think she can win.

Hillary ran a great general election campaign in the 2008 primary. Hillary would have beat McCain by even more than Obama did. She just ran a horrible primary campaign. She ran to the middle too early in the primary campaign and let Obama position himself as the anti-Bush when Democrats wanted exactly that.

I don't think Hillary is a master campaigner or politician. She still has a bit too much "get the job done" approach rather than doing things the politically correct way. Hillary's potential biggest opponent in the primary season is herself.

And Mark Penn had no idea how caucuses worked.

[SackAttack]

Ah. Nah. You misunderstand. What I'm saying is I remember 2008 when people were losing their fucking minds over a black Democrat running for the Presidency and were throwing all kinds of stupid shit at him. HE'S A SECRET MUSLIM HE'S A SOCIALIST HE WASN'T BORN IN THIS COUNTRY AND HE'S PROBABLY SLEEPING WITH YOUR DAUGHTER

All of that over a guy who's been socially left on a couple issues, but has generally governed closer to right-of-center.

Bernie Sanders is an actual, literal socialist. He prefers the term "democratic socialist," but that's pedantry. He's a socialist. Barack Obama was only ever a socialist in the minds of people who wanted to tear him down but were concerned enough about looking socially respectable that they didn't say what they REALLY thought of him. So they cast about for other epithets.

So when I say "Also, part of me just wants him to get the nomination so Republican heads can explode when they see what a socialist ACTUALLY LOOKS LIKE" that isn't about "pissing off Republicans." If THAT'S all I wanted Hillary Clinton would do just fine, and she's not particularly liberal.

This is less about "I want the guy who pisses off Republicans" (Bernie's not my first choice for the Democratic nominee and may not be the second) and more about "how would Republicans respond to a living, breathing socialist after the vitriol they hurled as a dog whistle for 'not the black guy'?"

Which isn't at all the same thing as "he pisses off [ideologues I don't like] so he'd probably be good at Presidentin'."

[Apathetic Lurker]

Originally Posted by BillJasper

I have a feeling that Clinton gets beat by the Republican nominee, so long as they run a moderate.

A moderate ? Where ?

[Izulde]

I think Sanders wins if he gets the nomination. There are even Republicans who have said they'd vote for him in the general. He's doing a great job of addressing the middle and working classes, and framing this election in terms of economics and class warfare, IMO, and that's resonating with the anti-1% feeling in the country right now.

Edit: A lot of people also say he's the first politician they've actually believed the things that he's saying, and that honesty has a lot to do with his broad support, IMO.

[Ryche]

Jim Webb is officially in. Will be interesting to see if he can gain any traction, definitely hoping he can.

[bronconick]

Originally Posted by Ryche

Jim Webb is officially in. Will be interesting to see if he can gain any traction, definitely hoping he can.

Didn't he decide against running for re-election in the Senate because he hates campaigning? How is this going to work?

[ISiddiqui]

He's going to do the Fred Thompson and hope it works this time .

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by bronconick

Didn't he decide against running for re-election in the Senate because he hates campaigning? How is this going to work?

Yes.

But given his recent statements on the confederate flag it may be better to keep silent rather than campaign.

[Ryche]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Yes.

But given his recent statements on the confederate flag it may be better to keep silent rather than campaign.

I don't know, his response seemed pretty appropriate for a historian with southern roots.

[Izulde]

I find it funny how at first people were saying Bernie has no chance whatsoever, and now they're saying he can win Iowa and New Hampshire, but has no shot at the nomination.

I mean, I get the reasons they're putting out there for that, but I'm just over here like, "He's building up momentum at a really fast rate, and if he does win Iowa and New Hampshire, national awareness of and interest in him will increase."

It seems as though people (and the media) are misunderstanding just how strongly his honesty and pro-middle class stances are resonating with voters all along the political spectrum. Frankly, I think he's more electable than Hillary.

[ISiddiqui]

LOL!

Sorry, that just makes me laugh. People are pushing up Bernie because they want a narrative in the Democratic primaries (I think the latest poll in Iowa had Hillary up by 30). That's really it.

[Izulde]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

LOL!

Sorry, that just makes me laugh. People are pushing up Bernie because they want a narrative in the Democratic primaries (I think the latest poll in Iowa had Hillary up by 30). That's really it.

Evenn 538 says Bernie can win Iowa and New Hampshire.

[ISiddiqui]

Did you just read the headline or the actual article . The "could" was, well Sanders is at 30% in Iowa and 32% in New Hampshire... he "could" win. He just has to make up 20 points.

[bhlloy]

We might as well get it over with and have Sanders vs Trump. I wonder if that would be more likely to end up with a civil war or a viable third party candidate?

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

LOL!

Sorry, that just makes me laugh. People are pushing up Bernie because they want a narrative in the Democratic primaries (I think the latest poll in Iowa had Hillary up by 30). That's really it.

People are pushing Bernie because he comes across as a person of integrity versus Clinton who is seen as a machine politician.