2014 Triple Crown and prep race season

[QuikSand]

Around here, we usually only gin up the engines as the Derby field has been set. Why not try to get some chatter going now?

Here's a nice online piece that walks through a few recent races, and talks about the look of the early field of contenders.

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/edito...e.cgi?id=42856

Here's the Daily Racing Form's Top 20 rundown:

Kentucky Derby Top 20 | Daily Racing Form

I have a long, deeply rooted history of falling in love with hard luck story horses who would be great if only this and if not for that... so STRONG MANDATE is my inevitable love interest here.



TAPITURE looked plenty good there, but that was a terrible trip for SM and he recovered really well. He's bred for lots of distance, too.

[TCY Junkie]

I always look at Dale Romans horses, I remember Romans had a horse in a race with Tapiture in it. So I didn't bet the race. Turns out Tapiture didn't win and my uncle gave me hell for it. There was something I liked about his maiden lost so I couldn't bet Romans. After that race, he's ran two huge wins. Do you think my uncle would say I was right not to bet it....... I think not.

Looking forward to the prep races!

[TCY Junkie]

I am taking strong mandate.

[QuikSand]

I would want better than 2-1, but I am looking for him to show us a good effort today.

[TCY Junkie]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

I would want better than 2-1, but I am looking for him to show us a good effort today.

I didn't know it was pouring down at oaklawn so I looked at gulfstream. Put 160 on Centre Court and got back 672. Didn't want to stick around an hour losing 10 dollar bets and then losing on strong mandate maybe so I put 25 to win on him and left. The only two bets I made for the day so things worked out well. Was disappointed in the heavy rain, but probably worked out best as I got out of there with my profits. Probably go florida derby day but no clue who I like.

I really thought strong mandate would set off the pace, boy was I wrong.

[weegeebored]

Florida Derby

I'm not sure that M/L favorites (Cairo Prince, Wildcat Red) will comfortably get the 9F. That said I like #4 Constitution and #6 General a Rod for the win. It's hard to guess what the off price will be on either as people may be off the M/L favorites. Again depending on price I will play a 4,6 / 4,6,3,8 exacta part wheel.

Plays are also dependent on weather. Could have significant rain there by race time.

[weegeebored]

I was right about Cairo Prince, but Wildcat Red really hung tough. I still think they are both short on stamina, so they won't be in my top slots for the Derby. I might use Red underneath, though.

Wood Memorial

Going for a big upset pick here. I'm going with #3 Noble Moon (12-1 m/l). the 11 will be overbet and I don't like it much at all. Won it's last big, but against a soft pace. Lots of speed to the inside, so will be used early to get into position from the 11 hole. No thanks. I also like #10 Uncle Sigh and #8 Samraat, but there may be no value with them. So, #3 WP, and a 3,10 / 3,6,8,10 exacta part wheel.

[QuikSand]

Winner looked nice in that one...

[PilotMan]

I'm taking the family to Keeneland today. We've never been there but it's a nice day and it's something that we've wanted to do for a while.

Most of the races today are claiming races but there are a few allowances thrown in. Nothing compared to the weekend races. I'm hoping it's a fun day.

[QuikSand]

It's hard to miss at Keeneland, enjoy.

[path12]

Went to Keeneland once. Loved the paddock area.

[QuikSand]

This weekend's races look pretty good.. the field in the Arkansas could be especially strong.

http://www.courier-journal.com/story...takes/7505073/

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

I'm taking the family to Keeneland today. We've never been there but it's a nice day and it's something that we've wanted to do for a while.

Most of the races today are claiming races but there are a few allowances thrown in. Nothing compared to the weekend races. I'm hoping it's a fun day.

A little breezy, but warm and sunny. Not terribly busy, we had a great day. Didn't place any real bets but won on our fake bets we made with each other.

[TCY Junkie]

Cool pics of the track and family.

Looks like I will take ride on curling because he's the best odds of the three I like in the Arkansas derby.

Will bet medal count in the blue grass. Both races seem interesting to me.

[PurdueBrad]

Just reserved our table at an OTB in Illinois for the Kentucky Derby. My mom and dad watched it every year together and she passed away this New Year's Day so I figure he and I will start a new tradition. Definitely going to be brushing up a lot between now and then and watching lots of TVG.

[QuikSand]

Well, after yesterday, I'm basically upside down. No idea what we have coming from those two races for May. No idea what we have from the west coast boss. Not really sure who's who from the east. Seriously, what a muddled field... I guess CALIFORNIA CHROME is your morning line favorite with a couple wins and big speed figures, but it's hard to really seriously back a possible SA specialist (maybe). WICKED STRONG may be my guy. Seems like a great year to plunge for value, though.

[weegeebored]

I'm right there with you QuikSand. I read where CC isn't going to work out at CD. Gallop, yes, but no workouts. I will keep on eye on that for sure as I like to know how well a horse may take to the surface.

My strategy for the Derby is to try and make a score, and this year seems better than most for that to possibly happen. It would be nice to be able to toss CC from the first two spots -- at least! Hopefully there will more more activity in this thread as I would like to see what people are thinking.

[QuikSand]

Promo free PP data for the derby field

http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promo...4PointsPPs.pdf

CC looks just soooooo good on paper. With those efforts in FL/NY he'd go off at even money.

[QuikSand]

This seems like an ideal year to watch CD works very closely. If somebody like CHITU goes out and blows out a 59 flat work (not at all impossible) then that could be a great angle play.

I don't see a Horse for the Course here...TAPITURE the closest, I guess. So a bullet workout might be the best indicator we get.

I will invest some time trying to concoct a Superfecta that leaves out CC altogether. For the crush.

[path12]

I'm not sure what I think yet, but it's hard to imagine not having CC as a big part of my exotics planning.

[weegeebored]

The Derby is really the only time that I bet trifectas. It would be nice to leave out CC, but I look at him as a possible "saver". Let's say he goes off at 2-1 -- which is what Fusaichi Pegasus went off at in 2000 -- the tri that year still paid $435, and that was with the ability to bet the field. If your tri ticket is $200 you can still get even money as a saver with the possibility of a nice score if he finishes out. Or, you could single him on top and go way deep in the next two or three slots and hope for bombs to finish ITM.

Every year we hear about the next Triple Crown winner, but I'm not convinced about CC. I haven't decided if I will use the QuickSand "crush" approach or path12's. I just love the first Saturday in May.

[path12]

I'll look for the youtube replay of the Wood tonight since I missed it but can anyone tell me offhand how much Samraat had to alter course in upper stretch? He intrigues me.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Just reserved our table at an OTB in Illinois for the Kentucky Derby. My mom and dad watched it every year together and she passed away this New Year's Day so I figure he and I will start a new tradition. Definitely going to be brushing up a lot between now and then and watching lots of TVG.

Which one?

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by path12

I'll look for the youtube replay of the Wood tonight since I missed it but can anyone tell me offhand how much Samraat had to alter course in upper stretch? He intrigues me.

I don't think he had any serious excuse. He altered his path and stride a few times (including in the first turn, when he was placed just outside the rail leader but drifted out inexplicably) - which looks like greenness to me. I think he is a legit talent, and at least one of my bets will feature the Wood excata repeating itself.

[path12]

Thanks Quik, I see you also have it already imbedded above which makes it easy for me tonight. I'm a sucker for a horse that can both lead or stay just off the pace and those steady Beyers only need one decent step forward to be in the thick of this.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Which one?

Hey Coffee-
We're at The Turf Room out in North Aurora. You heading out on Saturday?

[Logan]

Reading through this for the first time in advance of Saturday...how the hell does PilotMan's wife wear aviators but he doesn't??? Too cliche?

My brother in law is heading out to the Derby as part of a bachelor party weekend. I'm jealous as it's something I definitely want to check out at one point. Anyway, can you guys point me to a decent site a newbie can read (say, on a plane to Kentucky) to get a low down on the action? He doesn't know much of anything and won't be throwing around major money, but I figured I'd try and help him out best I could.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Hey Coffee-
We're at The Turf Room out in North Aurora. You heading out on Saturday?

Yes, but not the Turf Room. I'm a stone's throw away from the Foundry, so that's where I swing in to place my bets.

Turf Room's a nice place, though. I used to work fairly close to it - me and coworkers went there a few times for drinks and pony betting.

[weegeebored]

Originally Posted by Logan

Anyway, can you guys point me to a decent site a newbie can read (say, on a plane to Kentucky) to get a low down on the action? He doesn't know much of anything and won't be throwing around major money, but I figured I'd try and help him out best I could.

Here's a couple.

Handicapper's Edge
Dosage: Pedigree & Performance Main Menu

He can read the latest and the archived news at the Brisnet site. I think that the May 2 edition might even have the writer's Derby picks. The Dosage site might be too advanced for a newbie, but again, Romans posts his picks based on his dosage theory (essentially, the pedigree of the horse) so it might still be worth a look. I read his opinions on the race, fwiw. QS and path12 and maybe a few others might post their Derby picks in this thread.

Adding another site: Hello Race Fans! – The Major Prep Factor
Workout reports: http://www.drf.com/events/kentucky-d...hurchill-downs

Other info in case people missed it:
5/1/14 Update: Trainer Bob Baffert scratches Hoppertunity due to a foot issue, and Pablo Del Monte draws in. He’s a maybe for Saturday, tweets Jonathan Linter: “Trainer Wesley Ward says no guarantees Pablo Del Monte runs in the #kyderby Saturday because it would mean breaking from the outside post.”

[Coffee Warlord]

I've got my list down to 4, maybe 5 horses. Decisions decisions.

[QuikSand]

Pasted from email note sent to some of my fellow syndicate bettors:

I’ll start with my standard “what would we say if he wins” analysis here:

(INTENSE HOLIDAY PP GRAPHIC)


I think there’s a lot to like here, really. Breeding looks very nice, he looks like he could handle traffic. Foundation as a 2yo. I actually like him a bit, and I think 8-1 is about right… but I don’t think the betting public is going to like him as much as that. If he drifts from 8 up to 12 or 15 (and why not, really?)…this could be a really intriguing value pick. If he’s really at 6 or 8, I think he usable in the various spots, but it’s hard to see major value there I guess.

Here’s your La Derby video for research purposes:
2014 Louisiana Derby - YouTube

IH looked like he had momentum out of the turn there, lugged in really badly and maybe lost ground doing so… and then lost out any gains he had in him. I’m not sure he’s my “hard luck” pick – but among horses who didn’t win their last prep, he showed me enough (especially with the move to separate from the chasing pack) to give me some hope.

Right now: my third choice

[Coffee Warlord]

I just don't like his history of poor starts out of the gate, even though he looks to be able to gain ground back. In a field of 19 horses, a bad start can be awfully rough.

[QuikSand]

Oh, and if you're looking for workouts over the CD track - it won't help my "mine for value" angle. CALIFORNIA CHROME covered his four panels in 48 1/5, which is exactly what you'd want to see early in the cycle. Sounds like INTENSE HOLIDAY also ran impressively on Sunday. MEDAL COUNT also put together a nice run, and that might vault him from my "nobody" list to a "worth using" list -- and he has to be big value, right? He's not going off at 20, book it.

[QuikSand]

...and Bob Baffert (if I read him correctly) does not think his remaining charge CHITU is in any sort of good shape. Nothing to like in that workout, and he has none of his usual bravado when he thinks he's live. I'm tossing him.

[Coffee Warlord]

Well, that takes my list down to 3 horses, then.

[QuikSand]

me at noon Friday:

WICKED STRONG
SAMRAAT
INTENSE HOLIDAY

[Coffee Warlord]

Well, we're in agreement on Samraat, at least.

As it stands, I'm looking at a trifecta of California Chrome, Samraat, and Wildcat Red. Chitu was my 4th.

[QuikSand]

Website now has early money showing odds… not that reliable, but big trends are always interesting.
2014 Kentucky Derby Live Odds | 2014 Kentucky Derby & Oaks | May 2 and 3, 2014 | Tickets, Events, News

#5 CC at 2-1 sounds about right

6 SAMRAAT at 16 I like a lot

16 INTENSE HOLIDAY at 12-1 in the early going… stay tuned

20 WICKED STRONG at 9-1 I like that a lot too

[sterlingice]

I have no concept about horse racing beyond the basics but it's always interesting to read the threads about betting it.

SI

[QuikSand]

more quoting myself from email conversations:

===

So, among the early odds-droppers (maybe…I’m not sure about his morning line really), we have CANDY BOY.

[PP graphic here]

I guess the argument here is that last time out, he ends up pushing the lead (maybe not his best positioning) and three wide (definitely not) and running against either a superstar or a horse-for-course in CC. So, we excuse that race a bit and what do we see…

Came into his own in Hollywood, nice effort in the Dec futurity race (that’s a $750K Grade I, not exactly a beauty contest) behind the heavy favorite. CB made just a HUGE move on the backstretch to go after a lackadaisical longshot leader.
Here’s the video: The 33rd Running of CashCall Futurity (Grade I) - $750,000 Guaranteed - YouTube

Then he manages to show up nicely in his SA debut in February – not a huge figure, but it’s a solid win running down a few including CHITU who has a little talent I think…
Robert B. Lewis Stakes (Gr. II) - Saturday, February 8 - YouTube

So… this might be an interesting play after all. I had him into my “not interested” file, but now I’m looking more closely. I like seeing horses capable of doing more than plodding – in the Futurity he made a really bold move outside, and in the Lewis he ran into a wall of horseflesh and made a nice move to the outside to run past them all. Nothing eye popping, I guess, but he has that button I look for.

[weegeebored]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

So… this might be an interesting play after all. I had him into my “not interested” file, but now I’m looking more closely. I like seeing horses capable of doing more than plodding – in the Futurity he made a really bold move outside, and in the Lewis he ran into a wall of horseflesh and made a nice move to the outside to run past them all. Nothing eye popping, I guess, but he has that button I look for.

He's not in my top five, so I watched the Lewis again. I thought that he had a jewel trip in that one, sitting 4th with no pressure most of the race. IMO that race looked better than it was, and the fig wasn't that great even with the near-perfect trip. Possibly an underneath candidate for me though.

[cartman]

Looking for inside tips? Might want to check the horse's Twitter account.

The Kentucky Derby horses are on Twitter | For The Win

[PurdueBrad]

I'm on Samraat, Wildcat Red and Vicar's in Trouble and am stuck including California Chrome just because he's going to finish in the money. I laid the first three races of the day this evening so that I can take my time getting to the OTB in the morning.

[Coffee Warlord]

I wound up sticking with my trifecta of CC, Samraat, and Wildcat Red.

[weegeebored]

My betting strategy for the KD is to play a trifecta part-wheel. So far the only two horses that I am using for sure are CC and Wicked Strong, both for the same reasons. The pace in this race will be at least fair and maybe even very fast. CC likes to be near the front, and he will be if he breaks clean. If not, he could sit could be sitting in the middle of the pack and then who knows how he will react.

But because of CC I really can't play any other horses who need to be on/near the front to run their best. For instance, Wildcat Red showed a lot of heart and determination (a trait that I like) to finish 2nd in the Fla Derby. (Battled gamely in the Fnt of Youth as well.) But he had the lead against a soft pace and couldn't hold it. I thought his pedigree was an issue at 9F and he outran that, but imo he won't get the mile and a quarter. The same is true for Samraat, another horse I liked. He stalked a fast pace in the Wood but really didn't make a strong move. He got 2nd when Social Inclusion backed up after setting the fast early fractions. I think Chitu and General a Rod have similar pace problems. The difference is that they have some stamina on the dam side. It's possible that they can hold on for a piece of the Superfecta.

I'm using Wicked because I think that the pace will be intense enough, like the Wood. He didn't win the Remsen, but he closed against a painfully slow pace to finish a 1/2 length back so I think he can win even if the pace isn't super fast. His post doesn't bother me even though it's not ideal. The problem with closers is traffic. Can he be positioned well-enough by Maragh to use his ability? I hope so. Can't leave him out of any of the top three spots.

More thoughts later.

[murrayyyyy]

4-5-20 tribox

I think Chrome wins this one easily with Wick Strong closing late and Danza chasing Chrome the entire way.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

#5 CC at 2-1 sounds about right

6 SAMRAAT at 16 I like a lot

16 INTENSE HOLIDAY at 12-1 in the early going… stay tuned

20 WICKED STRONG at 9-1 I like that a lot too

This foursome is the cornerstone of my betting, in various combinations. CC there really just as a saver, I like the rest a good deal, but am cooling on SAMRAAT.

I will likely be using these horses also in various ways:
18 CANDY BOY
19 RIDE ON CURLIN
14 MEDAL COUNT (my fellow syndicate players really digging him, FWIW)
8 GENERAL A ROD ?
4 DANZA ?

I am not wild about only 7-1 on WICKED STRONG, but he remains my pick to win this thing. With CC being bet down to 2-1 as I watch live, but HOPPERTUNITY out, I would have hoped I'd still be getting 9-1 on the #20, but so it goes. I'm sure someone will dig up stats like where his 7-1 (or wherever it lands) ends up rating as among the highest prices for a KD second favorite. Might have to go back well past FuPeg to get a better priced one. (Geez, who was the second choice that day, maybe Captain Steve?)

[weegeebored]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

I'm sure someone will dig up stats like where his 7-1 (or wherever it lands) ends up rating as among the highest prices for a KD second favorite. Might have to go back well past FuPeg to get a better priced one. (Geez, who was the second choice that day, maybe Captain Steve?)

Good guess. Third choice @8-1. There were coupled and field bets that year. Impeachment, Trippi, High Yield, and Commendable were 6-1.

Here's my ticket ($90 for the buck tri):

5,18,20 / 4,5,12,15,16,18,20 / 4,5,12,15,16,18,20

Just like Quik I'm using CC as a saver. Money-wise I would clearly love to see him run out, and that remains a possibility. However, no horse in this Derby looked as visually impressive in winning as he did. He wasn't even asked so I think he's got enough left in the tank. And he beat (crushed?) Hoppertunity and Candy Boy, both horses I liked as Derby contenders. As much as I hate chalk, there was no way to leave him off of my ticket.

Good luck to all.

[QuikSand]

I like that ticket a lot, weegeebored.

[QuikSand]

...Hmm, do they have dime super wagering at CD? I could build off your ticket to make one.