Austin Statesman - "TJ Ford is as good as gone"

[Hammer755]

Is TJ Gone?

Brace yourself, Austin.

T.J. Ford is as good as gone.

I would very much like to be wrong on this -- hey, I thought Joe Millionaire would pick Sarah -- but there's probably a better chance of Texas winning next year's Big 12 football championship than there is of Ford returning for his junior season.

Let's put the odds at 80-20, in favor of T.J. leaving.

If Ford does exit, we should get down on our knees, thank the best college basketball player in America for stopping by and no-look passing the Longhorns into a new era, and prepare to watch him be serenaded by Mariah Carey someday following a long NBA career.

The kid is that good. As the consensus national player of the year, he's been more decorated than a Mardi Gras float.

Is he ready for the NBA? Of course not. But neither was Kwame Brown nor Corey Maggette nor any number of early defectors to that league.

T.J.'s shooting went south in the NCAA tournament, where he hit one three-pointer and shot 31 percent overall in five games. He needs more strength. If he can't nail 'em from the college line, how's he going to do it from way out?

And then there's his height. There's never been a 5-foot-10-inch guard taken first in the draft, and there probably never will be.

"Not likely," one NBA executive said Tuesday.

Without question, Ford is lottery-pick good, but he probably will not better his draft status by staying. To find the last true point guard taken first in the NBA draft -- other than the uniquely built and talented Allen Iverson -- you have to go all the way back to the magic that Earvin Johnson wove in 1979.

NBA types will always gravitate to the next great big man, the next Tim Duncan. That is, if they're not otherwise infatuated with the nation's best player to emerge on prom night or the guy with the name you can't pronounce from Spain or Brazil.

Besides, there's more risk attached to taking a little guy. Tony Parker, at 6-1, might take the Spurs to an NBA title in just his second season, but he wasn't picked until the 28th selection of the 2001 draft.

The last three years, there hasn't been a shorter lottery pick than the 6-2 Jay Williams from Duke and Dajuan Wagner from Memphis. In one 2003 mock draft, 10 point guards are projected to be taken in the first round, none of them shorter than 6-1.

In the NBA, size matters. A lot. Of the 400-plus players currently on NBA rosters and injured lists, only 14 can stand under a 6-foot ladder. And of those, just one -- Iverson -- is a legitimate superstar.

But T.J. is Iverson-special. He isn't another Iverson and never will be the shooter the 76er is. You can't stay in front of Ford. Kansas' Kirk Hinrich and Oregon's Luke Ridnour are taller, better shooters and solid passers, but they're not in T.J.'s realm as a passer. T.J. had 13 assists against Syracuse, and we yawned.

Ford has opened the door to renewed speculation and said there's "a possibility" he will turn pro early. Here's betting he'll walk right through that door to the Clippers or Wizards or Knicks, where the New York media would immediately pronounce him the best thing since bottled water.

Those close to the Texas program think that unless something crazy happens he will turn pro, although he has until May 12 to declare. Even then, he could back out up to 48 hours before the draft if he does not retain an agent.

"He's put himself in a special position," the NBA source said. "Outside of his overall abilities, his character and impact on the game and (desire) to win is a special, special thing. I don't see him (slipping) as far as No. 10. He's probably looking at No. 5 to 7."

The rub in all of this is that I don't think Ford wants to leave. He's having too much fun, enjoying college too much, wants the big prize too badly. If he returns, Texas could be a preseason No. 1 -- and a postseason No. 1, too.

If he leaves, the Horns will be top 25, although 6-3 guard Randy Pulley of Barton County (Kan.) Community College could fill the void if he doesn't sign with Arizona, North Carolina or Missouri.

T.J. desperately does not want to let his teammates down -- an admirable notion from a consummate leader -- but that ultimately shouldn't be the deciding factor. He should go if he's ready to grow up and let basketball become a job. He should stay if he doesn't want the college experience to end.

Outside forces and pressure -- whether from parents, sneaker moguls or agents -- could easily convince Ford he should go pro because he has done all he can do in college, short of winning a national title.

But that may be the one thing where being short bothers T.J. the most. Longhorn fans can only hope.

[DeToxRox]

Last I checked the best players aren't choke artists when it matters the most.

[IMetTrentGreen]

1. kirk bohls is a notorious idiot. he goes against the grain just for the hell of it. this is nothing new

2. deToxRoxDVHStyle is not notorious for it, but he is an idiot. unless he's just trying to ruffle feathers, which i hope he is, because no one can be that stupid . . .

can they?

[SunDancer]

T.J. is an awesome player, who would add another talented body into the draft if he goes. For some reason, I don't he see him as good as he was with the Horns. I think he'll be a solid starter, but I don't think he'll play like many expect. Just something about his game lacks.

[JeeberD]

Hmmm, sounds like TJ had himself a little accident yesterday...

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AUSTIN -- Texas All-American guard T.J. Ford of Texas was injured during a pickup basketball game and was released from a hospital after four hours of treatment.

Team spokesman Scott McConnell would not elaborate on the injury.

He said Ford was conscious when he arrived and may have collided with another player. It wasn't immediately known whom Ford was playing with.

[TroyF]

I'd be stunned if Ford stayed. Of course another Longhorn shocked me this year by staying (Roy Williams)

If he does stay, it is strictly for the love of the game. He can't improve his draft stock much, if at all, this season.

For once in my lifetime I agree with IMTG. . . you have to be on something to think TJ isn't a player. I'd personally take Wade over him (6'4", can play the 1 or the 2), but TJ is a top 6 pick in my mind. A case could easily be made for him going #4. (James, Anthony, and Darko are locks for the top 3 spots)

TroyF

[Marmel]

Unless TJ developes a jump shot he will never play significant minutes in the NBA. Great passer, great team player, great awareness on the court.....no J.

[MylesKnight]

Originally posted by Marmel
Unless TJ developes a jump shot he will never play significant minutes in the NBA. Great passer, great team player, great awareness on the court.....no J.

My thoughts exactly... Basically a skinner/quicker version of Mateen Cleaves.

[HornedFrog Purple]

I compare him to Jason Kidd. Awesome first step, excellent passer with court vision, quick hands on defense and a rusty jumper. But Kidd developed his so there is reason to hope TJ will also. He did improve slightly from his freshman year in that aspect.

[Hammer755]

Originally posted by HornedFrog Purple
I compare him to Jason Kidd. Awesome first step, excellent passer with court vision, quick hands on defense and a rusty jumper. But Kidd developed his so there is reason to hope TJ will also. He did improve slightly from his freshman year in that aspect.

The huge difference is size - Jason Kidd is 6-4, 215 lbs, while Ford is, um, smaller (5-10, 165). Kidd may not be a great shooter, but his size doesn't limit him on defense and makes him the best rebounding point in the league. Ford, who is quick and will put up good steal numbers, will still be a defensive liability in addition to his poor shooting, as the new prototype NBA guard will post him up frequently.

[HornedFrog Purple]

Agreed but TJ is a sneaky rebounder. He is about Nash's size, but if he develops into a Nash-type player, that's not half bad. He has the same type tools just not polished yet especially on the jumper.

His quickness and bricks from outside reminded me of Kidd at Cal.

[Hammer755]

Originally posted by HornedFrog Purple
Agreed but TJ is a sneaky rebounder. He is about Nash's size, but if he develops into a Nash-type player, that's not half bad. He has the same type tools just not polished yet especially on the jumper.

His quickness and bricks from outside reminded me of Kidd at Cal.

Check again, Nash appears smallish, but is 6-3, 180 (at least according to the Mavs) and still averages only about 3 boards per game. Ford averages just shy of 4 boards per game at the college level.

Edit - I probably come off sounding like a Ford-hater on this board but I'm really not. I think he is an awesome player, I just don't think he deserves all the awards he's received. And I also don't think his game will translate well to the next level. I could turn out to be dead wrong, but the NBA is littered with Wooden & Naismith winners who couldn't make it in the league.

[HornedFrog Purple]

Heh if Nash is 6'3, then I am 6'9.

In case you don't know, I'm not the biggest UT fan but this kid can play. I think with the right team (stay away from Cleveland!) with time to develop he will be a good player. Chances are he will get drafted by a lousy team with a must produce now stigma.