Sunday Night Football Punt/Go For It poll

[albionmoonlight]

On last night's (11/15/09) Fourth and Two, what would you have done in New England's place?

[Alan T]

I picked 'go for it' but I will preface it by saying, if I am prepared to go for it on 4th and 2, I likely would have ran it at 3rd and 2 as well. That would I feel have given me the best chance of extending the drive there.

[DaddyTorgo]

I agree with Alan.

I've seen statistical analysis done by someone (someone posted a link on a website to an article) saying that going for it was the correct call %-wise.

I personally have a hard time believing that - I can't believe you don't trust your defense not to crumble - especially when you've made Manning look mortal all night.

That being said, if you're going to go for it you absolutely run the ball on 3rd down AND you make goddamn sure that nobody is running a route that is less than 4 yards downfield.

THAT being said, why they didn't let whoever-it-was into the endzone instead of tackling him at the 1 was also baffling. Shit...push the dude into the endzone and get the damn ball back with a little time for Tom to work.

Really just a strange (and dissapointing) end to the fucking game.

[molson]

Call was fine, execution was horrid (both the play itself, and the decisions around it, as others have said).

Classic example of a play that's judged on the outcome.

[MikeVic]

I think I'd change my mind on this multiple times. Right now, I feel like I would've punted. If I had the Lions defense or something, I'd go for it. However on the other side, you do have Peyton Manning so that throws a wrench into things as well. If it was Joe Flacco on the other side, maybe I'd go for it.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

I love the call to go for it. I love how Belichick goes for it more than other coaches, in many situations punting is actually the stupid (but safe) thing to do. This one is a lot closer, but I still want him to make that call.

[Celeval]

I'd have been sorely tempted to go for it as well. The % chance of getting the first down was, I think, better than the % chance of Manning NOT taking the Colts 80 yards with 2 minutes to play.

[RedKingGold]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I picked 'go for it' but I will preface it by saying, if I am prepared to go for it on 4th and 2, I likely would have ran it at 3rd and 2 as well. That would I feel have given me the best chance of extending the drive there.

This.

Go for it should be split up into two options: (1) Go for it via run; (2) Go for it via pass.

I would have less of a problem of going for it on 4th and 2 if the third down and fourth down plays were both runs.

[jeff061]

I just don't feel Peyton had been dominating that game nearly enough at the point to take such a risk. Two good drives, a lot of punts and a pair of INTs.

Also of course agree with the run on third, and burning their timeouts didn't help. They just buckled, against the Colts. It's like the god damn twilight zone.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by RedKingGold

This.

Go for it should be split up into two options: (1) Go for it via run; (2) Go for it via pass.

I would have less of a problem of going for it on 4th and 2 if the third down and fourth down plays were both runs.

i would have had less of a problem if the third down play was a run even, then i coulda seen passing on 4th.

that being said - i think we all knew they were gonna pass on 4th - you put the ball in your best player's hands and have him make the play - unfortunately that play was inches short of a first down.

not sure if there were other open receivers or not, but faulk cut his route off just maybe a step and a half too soon.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by jeff061

I just don't feel Peyton had been dominating that game nearly enough at the point to take such a risk. Two good drives, a lot of punts and a pair of INTs.

Also of course agree with the run on third, and burning their timeouts didn't help. They just buckled, against the Colts. It's like the god damn twilight zone.

that was my thought too though - aside from that last drive where he looked vintage he looked horribly mortal all game. i'm surprised somewhat that BB didn't trust the defense (although with thin depth on the d-line maybe he felt there was no pass rush available).

sucky end to the game. it's going to make the playoffs tough - having to go thru Indy versus making Indy come through Foxborough where they'd be vulnerable due to zero running-game

[cthomer5000]

Originally Posted by molson

Classic example of a play that's judged on the outcome.

I'm not sure that isn't fair though.

Option 1. You go for it and get it. You're a risk-taking genius who heroically won the game. Who would have even thought to go for it?!

Option 2. You go for it and fail. You have now practically handed the opposition the victory.

Option 3. You play it safe and punt, but lose the game, it's the heroics of the other team, and no one regards you as a maniac.

Option 4. You play it safe and punt, and win the game. Your defense rises to the occasion, and you've shown your faith in them.


Often in coaching, you're simply trying to avoid the worst possible scenario, for PR reasons or game reasons. None of the options is 100% right, but I think it's plain to see Option 2 (the one they took) is by far the most open to criticism, and justifiably so. Sometimes decisions DO deserve criticism. Sometimes coaches get calls wrong. And sometimes it is entirely to do with the outcome, not just the theoretical value of the decision itself.

[ISiddiqui]

Without a doubt, punt it.

[TroyF]

You can either try to get two yards with Tom Brady to clinch the game, or you take a chance with a QB who was 7-9 in the fourth quarter for 103 yards. (and that doesn't count a 31 yard PI penalty.)

Yes, one of the incompletions was a pic. Still, I think the overwhelming evidence was that Peyton was in full blown hall of fame mode. As it was, the Colts ripped off the 29 yards with little problem. I find it hard to believe they wouldn't have gotten the extra 30 if they'd needed it.

[jeff061]

Originally Posted by molson

Classic example of a play that's judged on the outcome.

Couldn't really disagree with you more. I was screaming at my TV when they snapped it. That statement doesn't fit every single failed risk.

[panerd]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

that was my thought too though - aside from that last drive where he looked vintage he looked horribly mortal all game. i'm surprised somewhat that BB didn't trust the defense (although with thin depth on the d-line maybe he felt there was no pass rush available).

sucky end to the game. it's going to make the playoffs tough - having to go thru Indy versus making Indy come through Foxborough where they'd be vulnerable due to zero running-game

Actually supposing the season were to end today, losing that game...

1) Cost them a first round bye.
2) Brings Pittsburgh to town in round 1
3) Travel to Cinci in round 2
4) Survive that guantlet and you get to play at the Colts.

Obviously there is a lot of football to be played still.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by panerd

Actually supposing the season were to end today, losing that game...

1) Cost them a first round bye.
2) Brings Pittsburgh to town in round 1
3) Travel to Cinci in round 2
4) Survive that guantlet and you get to play at the Colts.

Obviously there is a lot of football to be played still.

that was sorta my point panerd

[spleen1015]

I punt no matter what.

You don't take the chance of letting Manning have the ball inside your 40. No way.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

I'm still thinking the Pats will finish above the Broncos and get the 6 seed rather than Pitt, but like panerd said lots of games left.

[Chubby]

Maybe Bill knew he hadalready passed "flipped switch" time?

[claphamsa]

I dont see a go trout fishing option....

[hhiipp]

Can't believe noone is talking about how poorly the Pats used their last 2 timeouts on that possession. First they blew one right after they got the ball back then the second one was blown when Bill had already made the decision to go for it on 4th. If they had a timeout left they could have had at least a chance to challenge the spot on the 4th down play.

I still would have punted, you have to at least make Peyton drive the entire field to score rather than just the last 30 yards of it with all the time in the world.

[MJ4H]

Originally Posted by cthomer5000

I'm not sure that isn't fair though.

Option 1. You go for it and get it. You're a risk-taking genius who heroically won the game. Who would have even thought to go for it?!

Option 2. You go for it and fail. You have now practically handed the opposition the victory.

Option 3. You play it safe and punt, but lose the game, it's the heroics of the other team, and no one regards you as a maniac.

Option 4. You play it safe and punt, and win the game. Your defense rises to the occasion, and you've shown your faith in them.


Option 2 (the one they took)

heh it's the one that happened but I think as the option they took they at least had option #1 as a final candidate.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by cthomer5000

Often in coaching, you're simply trying to avoid the worst possible scenario, for PR reasons or game reasons. None of the options is 100% right, but I think it's plain to see Option 2 (the one they took) is by far the most open to criticism, and justifiably so. Sometimes decisions DO deserve criticism. Sometimes coaches get calls wrong. And sometimes it is entirely to do with the outcome, not just the theoretical value of the decision itself.

This is exactly right. Bruschi wrote a good article on ESPN about it today. It's not so much that you lost the game, it's that your coach just told the defense they are a liability and he doesn't trust them. I'm not sure a 5-7% increase in the odds (at best, IMO) is worth losing the confidence of your defense. There's more football to be played after Sunday and this is the type of loss that could have lingering effects on the team.

[Fidatelo]

I'd have punted, but I don't have a problem with going for it either - Manning is a beast at the end of games with the ball in his hands. I do agree with others that pointed out in the NFL thread that the real problem was stopping the Colts at the 1. You have to just let them score at that point and then try to get a field goal.

[Noop]

You play to win.

[BrianD]

I would have punted without a second thought. I thought the Pats were crazy to snap the ball. The defense may have been tired, but they played well through most of the game. Peyton had also thrown some bad passes and made some bad decisions. I say you make him earn it.

[Desnudo]

Originally Posted by Arles

This is exactly right. Bruschi wrote a good article on ESPN about it today. It's not so much that you lost the game, it's that your coach just told the defense they are a liability and he doesn't trust them. I'm not sure a 5-7% increase in the odds (at best, IMO) is worth losing the confidence of your defense. There's more football to be played after Sunday and this is the type of loss that could have lingering effects on the team.

Maybe, but in this case it was probably warranted. Yeah, they controlled Manning for most of the game, but the previous drive indicated that wasn't the case anymore.

I don't think he goes for it against anyone but the Colts. I remember thinking that no matter what decision was made, the Patriots were going to lose if they had to turn the ball over. Just slow or fast.

Belichick chose fast with the possible upside of winning the game on one play.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Determine it for yourself!

http://belichick-decision.heroku.com/

[SteveMax58]

Originally Posted by Arles

This is exactly right. Bruschi wrote a good article on ESPN about it today. It's not so much that you lost the game, it's that your coach just told the defense they are a liability and he doesn't trust them. I'm not sure a 5-7% increase in the odds (at best, IMO) is worth losing the confidence of your defense. There's more football to be played after Sunday and this is the type of loss that could have lingering effects on the team.

See I come down on the opposite side...I would have much more faith in Tom Brady and my offense in the 4th qtr. I think the impact to the defense's psyche is overrated in a lot of these situations. I think if Peyton is going to get the ball with 2 minutes left...that is too much time for ANY size field and ANY defense in the 4th qtr.

My thinking is more like this.

Brady and the offense are going to get the 1st...if they dont then our defense needs to make a stop...since we (and the rest of the world) play prevent defense in the last 2 mins he'll easily get to our 30-ish yardline anyway but likely run off a minute or more in the process taking dump-off passes that we leave open in the middle of the field.

So our defense ends up having to make a stop inside our 30 with nearly 2 mins left or with 10-20 seconds left. At least with the former I have a chance to get the ball back and score a FG myself or run the clock out if we do stop them.

I cant tell you how many games I wish the Giants would just do something ballsy like that. Meaning...in a close game plan to get the ball in your hands last...not just hope you stop an elite offense with a tired defense.

We've seen it plenty of times over the years with the Colts (i.e. Tampa a few years back) and it even happens quite often with much lesser QBs/Offenses.

[albionmoonlight]

I would have gone for it on 4th down. But I agree with those of you who say that the really really smart play would have been to know before Third down that you were planning to go for it on Fourth. Then you can run on Third down and/or have a play for Fourth Down in your pocket to hurry up to the line and run after third. Then, based on the Colts D, either run that play or let the clock run down to the 2 minute warning.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

FWIW at the press conference Belichick said the plan was always to go for it; the TO was used because the punt team went on the field (some assistant coach must have gotten chewed out for that). Why they threw is a good question, I imagine Belichick felt comfortable with the ball in Brady's hand to win the game. Didn't work out that way.

[jbergey22]

Maybe Bellichek was thinking the Jets lost so he had a freebie in his pocket. Or maybe he was just thinking it would take the Colts 5 plays and 55 seconds to get from their own 30 to the Pats 30 anyway. I think I still would have punted and made them earn it.

My results from the link above was 70/70. I went 45/53/30 as percentages.

Very interesting topic though which could actually make coaches think about percentages instead of punting 4th and 2 inches.

He is the only coach with the balls to make that call though.

[TroyF]

I put the chance of them getting the first down at 65%. If anything, I think that number is a little low.

I put the chance the Colts score a TD from the 29 at 75%.

I put the chance the Colts score a TD after a punt at 35%

73% win if you go
64% win if you punt.

If you drop the Colts chances of scoring a TD after the punt to 26%, the odds flip.

If you use agree with my 65% number, then say the Colts are 100% to get the TD from the 30, you would have to assume the Colts would get a TD 35% of the time to make it the right call.

I thought it before the stats and I still think it. . . Beli made the right call.

[Radii]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

My results from the link above was 70/70. I went 45/53/30 as percentages.

You think that the Pats only have a 45% chance of completing 4th and 2?

[TroyF]

dola, I think 45% is WAY too low. Brady needing 2 yards? He's going to find a way to make that play a ridiculous percentage of the time.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by TroyF

dola, I think 45% is WAY too low. Brady needing 2 yards? He's going to find a way to make that play a ridiculous percentage of the time.

in fact he made the play the route was just about what...less than a foot too short and the defender was on faulk's back

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Radii

You think that the Pats only have a 45% chance of completing 4th and 2?

That is the league average on 2 point conversions. A normal 4th and two Id say its 66 percent but on this particular 4th and 2 the Colts had to play all out with their safetys up as the game was over if they got it. I think anything above 55 percent is WAY too high in this situation. Not to mention it was on the road and the refs werent going to do any favors for the Pats which you seen.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

That is the league average on 2 point conversions. A normal 4th and two Id say its 66 percent but on this particular 4th and 2 the Colts had to play all out with their safetys up as the game was over if they got it. I think anything above 55 percent is WAY too high in this situation.

The Pats offense isn't league average by a long shot.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Atocep

The Pats offense isn't league average by a long shot.

Either is the Colts defense and the loud road domed stadium.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Either is the Colts defense and the loud road domed stadium.

The Colts defense ranks 10th in DVOA. The Pats offense is #1 by a large margin.

You also can't compare a 4th and 2 in your own territory to a 2 point conversion because you're extremely limited in what you can run on 2 point tries. Even if the Colts brought their safeties up they had to defend the entire field.

The chance of success was much higher than 45%.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Plus from everything I've read Lucas Oil is much less loud than the RCA Dome, not that it really even belongs in the conversation.

[BrianD]

I'm surprised people aren't making more comments on the catch/spot on the 4th down play. The route was run past the first down marker, but forward progress wasn't counted since the receiver bobbled the ball before completing the catch. If the receiver catches the ball solidly right away, the Pats get the first down.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Atocep

The Colts defense ranks 10th in DVOA. The Pats offense is #1 by a large margin.

You also can't compare a 4th and 2 in your own territory to a 2 point conversion because you're extremely limited in what you can run on 2 point tries. Even if the Colts brought their safeties up they had to defend the entire field.

The chance of success was much higher than 45%.

They didnt have to defend the entire field. They get 2 yards and its over either way. You really think the defense was worried about them taking a 50 yard shot downfield? They were overplaying the short pass which was their only chance EXACTLY what you seen happen. He made a good pass and it was caught yet they still came up short, you cant tell me if they were worried about the deep pass that would have happened.

[Atocep]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/200...html?eref=sihp

Average team picks up 4th and 2 60% of the time. Putting the Pats at 65% or higher isn't absurd.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Atocep

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/200...html?eref=sihp

Average team picks up 4th and 2 60% of the time. Putting the Pats at 65% or higher isn't absurd.

So picking up a 4th and 2 at your own 28 when you are down 14 points and the defense is playing prevent is the same as the situation last night? My bad.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

FWIW at the press conference Belichick said the plan was always to go for it; the TO was used because the punt team went on the field (some assistant coach must have gotten chewed out for that).

Did they run out on to the field with 5 seconds left on the play clock? I don't see how that's anywhere close to a reasonable explanation to burn that TO.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Originally Posted by Logan

Did they run out on to the field with 5 seconds left on the play clock? I don't see how that's anywhere close to a reasonable explanation to burn that TO.

Quotes from the presser, draw your own conclusions:

We had a little miscommunication on that … as to whether we were going to go or punt it. Once some of the guys on the punt team started out, then the guys on offense, they started to come off. That wasn’t cleanly handled, Again, I’ll take responsibility for that.

I said it was a miscommunication on our part. A couple of guys started out, then the offense reacted to that, then the punt team kind of reacted to the offense. It just wasn’t cleanly handled on the substitution.

I would think for such a critical play having any thought that not everyone is on the same page would probably be reason enough to call it.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

So picking up a 4th and 2 at your own 28 when you are down 14 points and the defense is playing prevent is the same as the situation last night? My bad.

Don't hurt yourself building that strawman.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Don't hurt yourself building that strawman.

I'll assume with that reply you figured it out.

It was you that showed the stat. Im just trying to remind you that not all situations are similiar.