Could Scott Boras be the guy to kill the MLB Draft?

[DeToxRox]

Yahoo had a story about an hour ago just mentioning how Boras is still floating sending Strasburg to Japan for a year to play, and thus making him a free agent much like Dice-K was where teams would have to pay to bid for the right to talk to him, then pay again for a contract.

Now I know this is 95% a ploy on Boras part to get the most money possible for his client, but considering Boras is the guy who represents damn near half the first round most years, and will probably represent Bryce Harper who could be the guy to head to Japan because it just makes too much sense, does anyone else think the way the MLB Draft is run as of today will be totally blown up in the not so distant future?

I just think Boras is realizing he can maximize his clients value by sending them to Japan, getting a good salary as it is, then getting even more once their client becomes a Free Agent at about 20 or 21 years old. I don't even know how much the kids would be hurt if they have limited success (and by that I mean they show they can produce but struggle like any kid would in any type of pro ball at first) because teams are bidding on their potential.

With the way the current Draft is, it's a joke. Teams don't try and get better through the draft. Some just try and appease Selig and get guys who will sign. Other teams pay at any cost to keep their farm stocked. Then you have kids from the Dominican who are 16 and signing for 3 and 4 million dollar signing bonuses.

Whatever the case may be, this is the most flawed draft in professional sports and if some upper echelon kids start hightailing it to Japan to a year or two and then come back as Free Agents, what other kids might end up doing it? It makes perfect sense.

Hell, I'd do it if I could. Playing pro ball in Japan beats the hell out of Minor League bus trips.

Anyway it's a slow one and that article had me thinking. I know others have mentioned that the draft is majorly flawed, and hey maybe if this does happen something will be done to fix it.

And to reiterate I think Strasburg most definitely signs with the Nats, but Bryce Harper is the one I think goes for it.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by DeToxRox

Whatever the case may be, this is the most flawed draft in professional sports and if some upper echelon kids start hightailing it to Japan to a year or two and then come back as Free Agents, what other kids might end up doing it? It makes perfect sense.

I think the plan sort of falls apart as a regular tactic due to a combination of so few players who are physically & mentally ready for the challenge of playing at the top level overseas and an eventual lack of willingness for teams there to turn themselves into a rent-a-player factory.

I might be wrong but I don't see that working in & of itself.

[DeToxRox]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

I think the plan sort of falls apart as a regular tactic due to a combination of so few players who are physically & mentally ready for the challenge of playing at the top level overseas and an eventual lack of willingness for teams there to turn themselves into a rent-a-player factory.

I might be wrong but I don't see that working in & of itself.

Valid point. I think the one counterpoint is if nothing else for a Japanese team they can take a year flier on a guy and still get a lot of money from some team who feels the kid can be a star. I know that that limits things but it is something that is possible.

[Logan]

I posted a link in the Harper thread I believe where MLB said they wouldn't consider any kid who goes to Japan a free agent not subject to the draft. It would probably involve a legal battle, but that could be time-consuming from the player's perspective.

[JPhillips]

Global draft FTW.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Global draft FTW.

What he said and then some: Slotted world draft FTW. You want to play in MLB, you have to go through the draft. I don't care if you're in the Dominican, Japan, or Germany- you have to register if you want to join the MLB. And you know what, you get what you're slotted to get, too.

SI

[Swaggs]

I think slotted salaries in the draft will be one of the next things that the MLBPA trades off. The undrafted amateurs are obviously not represented by the union and a lot of these first (and some random later picks) rounders are getting a pretty good chunk of the pie. It would make the owners happy and not really take anything away from the players already in the union. I could see the union trading it for a salary floor, for example.

[I. J. Reilly]

I think it’s the high revenue teams standing in the way of this, not the union. The last thing the Yankees and Red Sox want is for talented players to suddenly become affordable for the Royals and Pirates. Can you imagine the chaos that would ensue? Before long there would be literally half a dozen teams with a chance to win the World Series, and no one wants that.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by I. J. Reilly

I think it’s the high revenue teams standing in the way of this, not the union. The last thing the Yankees and Red Sox want is for talented players to suddenly become affordable for the Royals and Pirates. Can you imagine the chaos that would ensue? Before long there would be literally half a dozen teams with a chance to win the World Series, and no one wants that.

The last sentence and the rest of what you wrote don't seem to make much sense with each other.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by I. J. Reilly

I think it’s the high revenue teams standing in the way of this, not the union. The last thing the Yankees and Red Sox want is for talented players to suddenly become affordable for the Royals and Pirates. Can you imagine the chaos that would ensue? Before long there would be literally half a dozen teams with a chance to win the World Series, and no one wants that.

The current system certainly benefits high revenue teams, but they won't be the only people standing in the way of a global draft. Agents will work very hard to derail it. Latin players will face enormous pressure to stand up for the "rights" of young ballplayers rather than allow them to be drafted and paid a pittance. I'd imagine the Dominican government would get involved as the baseball academies are a big source of revenue for the country.

However, for the sake of the game it's the right thing to do.

[gstelmack]

Given the Brandon Jennings situation, I think it's going to become a challenge in any league with international competition (and it could be for the NFL depending on their relationship with the CFL).

[RainMaker]

Does the current system really benefit high revenue teams though? In the Caribbean you can sign kids for dirt cheap and you can afford to miss on a bunch of them to get one that turns out great. Big star Japanese players have almost all been busts so I don't see how that helps the big market teams either.

[Young Drachma]

Boras isn't nearly the bad ass he thinks he is. He might be the guy to finally get the draft closer to being where it ought to be, than not.

A slotted world draft will come sooner than later, once the MLB players get a whiff of what NBA players already have. That kids who haven't played a day in their shoes, shouldn't get more money than the veterans who are already toiling in the field.

Couple that with the problems owners are having in some markets and surely, it's going to be a reality that only teams like the Red Sox, Yankees and Dodgers will oppose.

It'll probably cause a problem in the sense that teams that own development academies are probably going to pull out of some countries or invest less in that, but...it might just end up being some sort of MLB-run scheme that the teams pay into, as a result.

But we're talking about baseball, so this might not happen for another decade.

[Big Fo]

Do folks want a 16 y/o Dominican kid and a 34 y/o veteran from the Japanese league to be locked into the same slotting system for contracts? I don't think they should be. Having a worldwide draft with slotted salaries for all players under a certain cutoff age (early 20s or so) would be better imo.

[JPhillips]

What's the age cap for draft eligible in hockey? That seems to work well.

[Galaxy]

Originally Posted by I. J. Reilly

I think it’s the high revenue teams standing in the way of this, not the union. The last thing the Yankees and Red Sox want is for talented players to suddenly become affordable for the Royals and Pirates. Can you imagine the chaos that would ensue? Before long there would be literally half a dozen teams with a chance to win the World Series, and no one wants that.

Hasn't the Red Sox owner come out and call for a call in the past off-season?

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

What's the age cap for draft eligible in hockey? That seems to work well.

Winner. How hockey handles drafting european vs north american players is perfect IMO...

MLB isn't going to sign off on anything that will make it less likely for the best foreign talent to come and play (no way in hell a 30 year old Japanese star is going to accept a slotted contract when that eventually happens) but an age limit of 23/25 in which a player has to be drafted to acquire rights just makes too much sense.

[Sgran]

Originally Posted by Big Fo

Do folks want a 16 y/o Dominican kid and a 34 y/o veteran from the Japanese league to be locked into the same slotting system for contracts? I don't think they should be. Having a worldwide draft with slotted salaries for all players under a certain cutoff age (early 20s or so) would be better imo.

In the NBA, no good Euro players make it that long. They get drafted at a young age and the NBA team keeps their rights while the player is paid by Thycalycalycus until a buy-out is arranged. This could happen in baseball.

[kcchief19]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

I think the plan sort of falls apart as a regular tactic due to a combination of so few players who are physically & mentally ready for the challenge of playing at the top level overseas and an eventual lack of willingness for teams there to turn themselves into a rent-a-player factory.

I might be wrong but I don't see that working in & of itself.

+1

From what I've read, Boras also probably can't pull this off. Going to Japan doesn't keep Strasburg out of the draft next year. The only way to avoid the draft is to become an international resident. In Japan, it takes 5-10 years to establish residency. Maybe he can play in Japan and find a country with liberal residency rules that will let him become a resident without living there. But MLB also has a rule that essentially leaves the power of determining draft eligiblity in the hands of the commissioner. If the commissioner rules Strasburg is still draft eligible, he's back in the draft. Later, rinse, repeat.

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Global draft FTW.

It would fix some problems but not all. It would let teams who can't afford to shovel money at 16-year-old Dominicans and wait seven years for them to develop to draft that talent and own their rights. But they still need to be willing to pay them. You'll still have times when teams will bypass quality players for signability issues.

In the NHL, don't teams draft guys and then own their rights for multiple years, even if they stay in school or junior hockey? That would seem to remove a ton of the leverage draftees have in MLB. If the team who drafts a player owns their rights 3-4 years, teams could draft high school players and not worry if they go to college.

[Young Drachma]

Strasburg could go to Japan and play in the industrial leagues, so he can avoid all of the NPB rules. But I suspect Gwynn or someone else sensible will get in his ear about it.

But I think in the end, he'll sign with the Nats for somewhere in the $27-30 million range.

And he'll go straight to the majors.

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Winner. How hockey handles drafting european vs north american players is perfect IMO...

MLB isn't going to sign off on anything that will make it less likely for the best foreign talent to come and play (no way in hell a 30 year old Japanese star is going to accept a slotted contract when that eventually happens) but an age limit of 23/25 in which a player has to be drafted to acquire rights just makes too much sense.

The rule is up to age 20 for North American amateurs in hockey, but for Euros, you have to be drafted before being signed, regardless of your age.

Drafted Europeans must now be signed within two years, the same as North Americans, or the team loses the rights to the player. Prior to 2005, teams retained Euro players rights until age 31.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by Dark Cloud

The rule is up to age 20 for North American amateurs in hockey, but for Euros, you have to be drafted before being signed, regardless of your age.

I'm not sure this is true. How did the Ducks end up with Hiller? He was never drafted and they just signed him as an FA in 2007...

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by DeToxRox

Valid point. I think the one counterpoint is if nothing else for a Japanese team they can take a year flier on a guy and still get a lot of money from some team who feels the kid can be a star. I know that that limits things but it is something that is possible.

The very huge risk to the players in question is that their value to an MLB team could plummet. There is an extremely small chance that a guy like Strasburg could improve his value by going to Japan, and a significant chance that he could hurt it, perhaps severely. If he gets hurt (a very real risk for any pitcher) or if he looks ordinary, his value goes down and he gets less money, perhaps far less money. The example of Matt Harrington has to be seriously considered by every highly drafted pitcher.

[stevew]

wow, I'd never heard of Harrington. Dude's career(or lack thereof) could easily make an engaging movie.