Election Day Game Thread

[Solecismic]

I did this last time, and it generated some discussion.

Here's my Election Guide, a focus on the interesting questions for Election Day.

http://www.solecismic.com/Election2008Guide.doc

Nothing earth-shattering here. I'm seeing a bit of a McCain surge in the closing seconds, but not enough to throw the end result into question.

First results are in, and Obama leads McCain, 15-6, in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire.

[stevew]

nice work on this jim. very good read.

[kernie]

Electorial breakdown prediction

upset

McCain 278
Obama 260

followed by the the Chicago riots of 2008. In the aftermath of the greatest upset in Presidential elections of our generation the people will ask how can 159 different polls all be wrong??? The explanations in the days that follow will point to these facts

1) The youth vote which is heavily weighting the current models will once again dissapoint in their numbers

2) male caucasions turnout in record numbers

3) Obama as he did in the democratic primariies recieves between 4-6 percent less votes than he polls in most states.

4) members of FOFC after initially mocking my predictions consider me the next Nostradomus when I nail this prediction and some even wonder if I am of alian lifeform.

[Big Fo]

kernie, post that in the predictions thread, you'll be the only guy out of thirty or so who has McCain winning so you'll definitely win if McCain wins.

Solecismic, that was a nice read. I this part breaking down the key states, it's a cool way of breaking it down that I hadn't seen elsewhere on teh internets in the run-up to election day:

Obama – 228 – WI (238) – PA (259) – NM (264) – NV (269) – CO (278) – VA (291) - OH (311) –
FL (338) – MO (349) - NC (364) – IN (375) - ND (378) – MT (381) – AZ (391) – GA (406) –
WV (411) – TX (445) – SD (448) – MS (454)

McCain – 84 – MS (90) – SD (93) – TX (127) – WV (132) – GA (147) – AZ (157) – MT (160) –
ND (163) – IN (174) – NC (189) - MO (200) – FL (227) – OH (247) – VA (260) – CO (269) –
NV (274) – NM (279) – PA (300) – WI (310)

[Schmidty]

Thanks Jim, that was very interesting.

[Solecismic]

Someone posted this image on a site I read. It'll come in handy this evening.

[Poli]

Nifty.

[SirFozzie]

Jim: You read fivethirtyeight?

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

Jim: You read fivethirtyeight?

No, but I think a couple of people in that thread do.

[digamma]

1. So there's no game?

2. Minor quibble, but in your paragraph on a 269-269 tie, doesn't the House vote on a one vote per state basis? That might not be an open and shut Obama victory.

[SirFozzie]

Digamma: for 2: The house delegations for each state vote, and that state gets one vote for president. The Democrats have "control" of State Delegations in the House by at least a 26-21-3 margin, and that will probably go up after the election.

http://www.freep.com/article/2008110...87/1215/NEWS15

(Heh, I thought at first freep was the freerepublic news site)

No way. The 12th Amendment calls for the House of Representatives to break the tie. And it’s not a simple majority vote of the 435 members of the House. Each state gets one vote – as in, each state’s congressional delegation would have to decide which candidate gets its vote.

What’s not exactly clear is whether the old Congress or the new one would decide – though most scholars seem to come down on the side of the new House making the decision. The current composition of the House is 26 delegations dominated by Democrats, 21 dominated by Republicans and three split – which would bode well for Barack Obama in the case of a tie. And if it fell to the new House, well, the Democrats are expected to build on their majority today.

Meanwhile, it would fall to the Senate to decide who is vice president (and that’s a simple majority vote, not a single vote for each state). At present, the Senate is split 49-49 – and if the current Senate took the vote, it’s conceivable that Sen. Joe Lieberman – an independent who has caucused with the Democrats but supports Republican John McCain for president – could back McCain’s running mate, Sarah Palin. The other member, Vermont independent Bernie Sanders, also caucuses with the Democrats.

So could that mean a 50-50 tie with Vice President Dick Cheney deciding the outcome? Most likely not – since Senate leadership, controlled by Democrats, would push to wait until early next year to take up the vote – and Democrats are expected to pick up seats in the Senate, too.