Election Prediction Contest

[larrymcg421]

How about it? Anyone have the guts to predict a McCain victory? Predictions due Nov. 3 at Noon.


Presidential Election - 5 points for each state you get correct. To make it simple, you can simply list Bush states Obama will win and Kerry states that McCain will win.

Senate - 3 points for each state you get correct. Once again, you can list states that will switch parties. Anything you don't list will be assumed you're predicting the same party will hold the seat.

House - How many net seats will the Dems gain? (You can predict a negative number if you want). You lose 1 pt for every number you're off.

[larrymcg421]

Here's mine:

Obama wins the following Bush States - NM, IA, CO, FL, VA, NV

McCain wins no Kerry states.

Dems pick up the following Senate seats - VA, NM, CO, NH, AK, OR, NC, MN

GOP picks up no Senate seats.

Dems gain 27 seats in the House.

[flere-imsaho]

Obama picks up these Bush states: FL, NC, VA, OH, CO, NM, NV, IA

McCain picks up no Kerry states.

Democrats pick up the following Senate seats: VA, NM, CO, AK, NH, OR, NC, MN

GOP picks up no Senate seats.

Democrats gain 22 seats in the House.

[larrymcg421]

bump

[stevew]

Obama wins the following Bush States - NM, IA, CO, NV

McCain wins Pennsylvania.

Rioting Insues nationally.

[bosshogg23]

Obama wins the Bush states of - NV, CO, NM, IA, OH, VA, NC

McCain wins zero Kerry states.

Democratic Senate pick ups in AK, CO, MN, NC, NH, NM, OR, VA. I think the GA race becomes a runoff due to no one being over 50%. I think Chambliss - R then loses this race. A pick up for the Dems but not until early December.

No Republican Senate pickups.

Democrats gain 22 House seats.

[Swaggs]

Obama picks off Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, and Ohio.

McCain does not pick up any of the Kerry states.

Democrats pick up Senate seats in Colorado, Virginia, New Mexico, Oregon, New Hampshire, Alaska, and North Carolina. Georgia goes to record spending run-off.

[MrKordell]

Obama wins Bush states: NM, IA, VA, CO, NV

McCain wins no Kerry states.

Democrats pick up AK, CO, NC, NH, NM, OR, VA in senate.

No Republican pickups

Democrats pick up 24 House seats.

[Racer]

Figure I have a better shot of winning by predicting an Obama landside or a McCain surprise win then I do predicting just an Obama win like most people are predicting. Since I think an Obama landslide victory is a bit more likely,

Obama wins Ohio, Iowa, Virginia, Florida, North Carolina, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Indiana, Missouri, Georgia, North Dakota, and Montana.

McCain wins No Kerry states

Democrats gain Senate seats in Minnesota, Oregon, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Alaska, Colorado, New Mexico, Virginia, and Georgia.

Democrats gain 23 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives

Edit: I've added Montana to the list of states I'm predicting Obama wins because of the latest polls and because I think Republicans in Montana may just say f*** it and not vote if McCain chances look grim after states like Pennsylvania and Virginia close since most apparently have no other major races in which a republican might win.

[Daimyo]

I predict democratic turnout is actually underestimated in the polls right now and Obama wins a landslide. Every toss up state falls his way with MT and AZ nearly doing so as well.

Obama picks up: FL, NC, VA, MO, IN, OH, IA, ND, CO, NM, NV

Dems pick up VA, NM, AK, CO, NH, NC, OR, MN in the Senate with GA going to a runoff.

Dems gain 22 seats in the House.

[Butter]

Obama wins the following Bush states:

IA
NM
CO
NV
VA
ND

McCain wins no Kerry states.

Following states switch Senate seats:
VA
NM
CO
AK
NH
OR
MN

Dems win net gain of 29 seats in the House.

[albionmoonlight]

Obama wins the following Bush States:

VA
OH
FL
NC
CO
IA
NV
NM
MT
IN

McCain picks up no Kerry states.

DEMs pick up the following Senate seats:
VA
NM
CO
AK
NH
OR
NC
MN
MS
KY

GOP has no senate pickups

DEMs gain 26 House seats

Edit--I note that I kept MO red out of respect of MBBF's sheer force of will.

[JPhillips]

Obama wins Kerry states and:

IA
NM
CO
VA

Senate Dems pick up:

VA
CO
NM
NH
AK
NC
OR

House Dems gain 23

[kcchief19]

Obama adds: Virgina, Florida, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Iowa
McCain adds: none

Senate Dems add: Virgina, New Mexico, Colorado, Alaska, New Hampshire, Oregon, North Carolina
Senate GOP add: none

House Dems: +25

[Butter]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Obama wins Kerry states and:

IA
NM
CO
VA

If I have to wait until 1:30 in the morning until New Mexico counts all of the new votes they "found" in Bernalillo County, and all of the people in line in Denver finally get to vote before this election is decided, I am holding you personally responsible.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Butter_of_69

If I have to wait until 1:30 in the morning until New Mexico counts all of the new votes they "found" in Bernalillo County, and all of the people in line in Denver finally get to vote before this election is decided, I am holding you personally responsible.

Won't be my fault. IA and VA plus Kerry states puts it away. If VA goes to McCain then you'll be up late waiting for the western states. I'll stick to what I said earlier, if McCain loses PA it's over.

[Fighter of Foo]

Obama wins Kerry states plus:

IA, NM, CO, NV, OH, VA, FL, NC, MO, ND, GA, MT, IN, NE+1

Senate Seats to DEM:
VA (not sure if this was Dem or not), NM, CO, AK, NH, OR, NC, MN, GA (in runoff)

House Dems +30

Edit to add I'll give Obama Ohama and a 397-141 win.

[Flasch186]

...and the Jaguars leave Jacksonville in a few years.

[sterlingice]

Obama picks up: CO, FL, IA, MO, NC, NM, NV, OH, VA
This, of course, could be up in the air depending on a lot of factors and I'm just throwing a dart. It's basically 538's map with NC (tossup) and MO going Dem.

Senate Dems pick up: AK, CO, MN, NC, NH, NM, OR, VA; GA runoff
The only thing I think of note here is that MN is close and GA likely goes runoff. Otherwise, the rest are pretty much set in stone. Anything aside from that will be a big shock. The only other thing I could really conceive of without a giant event happening is if a little of the shock in the mess in NC wears off and Dole somehow retains her seat.

House: No clue

SI

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Butter_of_69

If I have to wait until 1:30 in the morning ...

Well you might as well go ahead & get mad at everybody then. I don't see much chance enough states will be called by 130am for it to be officially over by then. I can't imagine the voting lines will be short enough in larger states to allow for conclusive counts in enough of them to get there that quickly unless the networks decide they're willing to take the risk on being wrong & calling too quickly (I'd think they'd be right virtually across the board but I believe they'll err on the side of caution)

[Fighter of Foo]

Not going to enlighten us with a prediction?

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Fighter of Foo

Not going to enlighten us with a prediction?

How about this one

JiMGA: "Country is royally screwed either way, just a matter of which is faster and worse"

SI

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Fighter of Foo

Not going to enlighten us with a prediction?

Funny you should ask, as I was playing with one of the map thingies earlier this afternoon. I had pretty much settled on a version that had Obama getting 397 EV's but decided I wasn't in the mood to parse out Obama-wins-in-Bush-states right now and figured I'd see if I got back around to it later tonight or tomorrow morning or whatever.

[ISiddiqui]

Presidential Election: 338-200 Obama

Obama wins the Kerry states and NV, NM, CO, IA, OH, VA, FL

Senate: Dems pick up NH, VA, NC, MN, NM, CO, OR, AK

House: Dems gain 22.

[Butter]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Well you might as well go ahead & get mad at everybody then. I don't see much chance enough states will be called by 130am for it to be officially over by then. I can't imagine the voting lines will be short enough in larger states to allow for conclusive counts in enough of them to get there that quickly unless the networks decide they're willing to take the risk on being wrong & calling too quickly (I'd think they'd be right virtually across the board but I believe they'll err on the side of caution)

Don't want to hijack this thread, but I know voting is supposed to be a pretty large clusterfuck in many states. But do others also see that many states will drag well into the early morning and next day to be called? Or are you thinking like me that compared to the last 2 elections, this could be a relatively early night?

[sterlingice]

Anyone want to predict something crazy with, say, one of the Nebraska or Maine votes going different than other parts of the state?

SI

[stevew]

Most likely a very early night. I guess if Indiana goes Obama, we can all go to bed.

Next likely bed time states will be VA, FLA, OH.

Assuming Obama wins any of those, then it's bed time.

If for some reason any of those aren't called, early, then yeah, it could be a long night.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Anyone want to predict something crazy with, say, one of the Nebraska or Maine votes going different than other parts of the state?

SI

There's a chance Obama takes the Nebraska district that includes Omaha. I posted a long time ago about him deciding to make a big push there.

McCain did some robocalls in Maine, but Susan Collins hit him hard on that and that will probably prevent him from stealing a district there.

[Big Fo]

Bush states that Obama wins:

VA, IA, CO, NM, NV, OH, NC, FL

Kerry states that McCain wins:

none

Senate seats Republican -> Democrat:

VA, NM, NH, AK, CO, OR, NC, MN, GA (runoff, yay more political commercials)

Senate seats Democrat -> Republican:

none

House of Repesentatives:

Democrats +24

[Racer]

Originally Posted by stevew

Most likely a very early night. I guess if Indiana goes Obama, we can all go to bed.

Next likely bed time states will be VA, FLA, OH.

Assuming Obama wins any of those, then it's bed time.

If for some reason any of those aren't called, early, then yeah, it could be a long night.

I think it will probably take Indiana quite a awhile to get called one way or the other.

[larrymcg421]

But that's the thing. If Indiana is "too close to call", then McCain might want to start practicing his concession speech.

[Fighter of Foo]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Funny you should ask, as I was playing with one of the map thingies earlier this afternoon. I had pretty much settled on a version that had Obama getting 397 EV's but decided I wasn't in the mood to parse out Obama-wins-in-Bush-states right now and figured I'd see if I got back around to it later tonight or tomorrow morning or whatever.

I think I just stumbled upon it while doing my last edit. Feel free to copy mine above if you like.

This site was really handy: 2008 Presidential Election Interactive Map and History of the Electoral College

[Daimyo]

If Indiana isn't announced red by 8pm EST that is a pretty good indicator that the polls had the correct partisan weightings and McCain is in serious trouble. The only way McCain can win at this point is if it turns out that the pollsters were incorrect on the increased democratic turnout.

[Tigercat]

Obama (291)
Non-Kerry states: NV, CO, NM, IA, VA

McCain (247)
Non-Bush states: None

Democratic gains(+7) in Senate:
AK
CO
NC
NH
NM
OR
VA
(MN and GA close but no Cigar)

Republican gains in Senate:
None

[kcchief19]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Anyone want to predict something crazy with, say, one of the Nebraska or Maine votes going different than other parts of the state?

SI

I've been considering it. Word is that polling shows the Nebraska 2nd (Omaha) is a horse race.

Given which one I lean, I really want to be more optimistic. Intellectually, I'm looking at the numbers and see an Obama win with Virgina, Ohio, Florida, Missouri and maybe George and possibly Indiana along with 3 or more Mountain states. If turnout is indeed over 70 percent and it's exploding among blacks, hispanics and first-time voters, it'll be landslide.

My gut says it's going to be closer than that -- Obama might flip Virginia but Ohio, and Florida are very winnable. If Virginia is the only state that flips from the Gore map, Obama still wins but without much margin.

As an election night addict, I'm a little nostgalaic for the notion that this is probably the last time exit polls will have any relevance at all. Too many states have advance voting now and that will only grow, which will make exit polls an exercise in futility.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Tigercat

Obama (291)
Non-Kerry states: NV, CO, NM, IA, VA

McCain (247)
Non-Bush states: None

Democratic gains(+6) in Senate:
AK
CO
NC
NH
NM
OR
(MN and GA close but no Cigar)

Republican gains in Senate:
None

No VA in Senate pickups?

[larrymcg421]

I think some people have forgot to include VA because it's such a foregone conclusion that Warner already seems like the incumbent.

[Tigercat]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

No VA in Senate pickups?

D'oh, good catch.

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

I think some people have forgot to include VA because it's such a foregone conclusion that Warner already seems like the incumbent.

Ha, I think that is exactly what happened.

[Big Fo]

Are any of the other frequent Republican posters from the Obama v. McCain thread going to post predictions?

MBBF, Vegas Vic, Arles, CamEdwards, etc.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Waiting and waiting for election results? | Thinking Right | ajc.com
Begins now the wait… It could be Friday before we know who won Georgia, opines the shrewd analyst of all things political, Randy Evans, an Atlanta lawyer and member of the State Election Board.

Three reasons, he says:

Long lines could mean that some vote-counting won’t start until after 9 p.m. Polls close at 7, but those who are there can vote, however long it takes.
Some 242,522 absentee ballots have to be counted, starting at 7 a.m. on Election Day. The counters are sequestered. If there are questions of improper voting, or outright fraud, ballots can be challenged. This year 2.2 million votes were cast early, a figure that includes the absentees. In the George W. Bush-John Kerry race four years ago, 422,485 early votes were cast.
Finally, notes Evans, “there are the provisional ballots and the challenged ballots.” If somebody shows up without proper photo ID, for example, he casts a provisional ballot and has 48 hours to produce proper identification. Disputes to clear up eligibility can be time-consuming. If it’s close, Georgia may not know the results for days, he says.

[Crapshoot]

McCain wins no Kerry States
Obama wins CO, VA, NV, NM, IA.

Senate: Dems win CO, NM, VA (all locks), NC, AK, OR, NH - retain LA, and end up with 58. If Georgia didn't have the 50% rule, I'd say there's a shot they win that, but in a run-off in December after a 58 seat Dem majority, there's no way in hell the Dems carry the state.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by Big Fo

Are any of the other frequent Republican posters from the Obama v. McCain thread going to post predictions?

MBBF, Vegas Vic, Arles, CamEdwards, etc.

Here you are:

Obama: HI (4), WA (11), OR (17), CA (55), NV (5), CO (9), NM (5), MN (10), IA (7), IL (21), WI (10), MI (17), VT (3), NY (31), MA (12), RI (4), CT (7), NJ (15), DE (3), MD (10), DC (3), ME (4), PA (21) = 284

McCain: AK (3), ID (4), UT (5), AZ (10), WY (3), MT (3), ND (3), SD (3), NE (5), KS (6), OK (7), TX (34), MO (11), AR (6), LA (9), MS (6), AL (9), GA (15), TN (11), KY (8), WV (5), SC (8), VA (13), WV (5), IN (11), NH (4), FL (27), OH (20) = 254

With OH, PA and FL all being extremely close.

Dems pick up 5 senate seats (VA, NM, CO, OR, NH)

Dems pick up a net 22 seats in the house

[Ryche]

Obama takes these Bush states:
VA, OH, CO, NM, NV, NC, IN, GA

McCain takes no Kerry states:

Dems pick up Senate seats in:
VA, NM, OR, CO, NC

GOP picks up no Senate seats from Dems

Dems +28 in the House

Expecting a bloodbath, but I think the GOP will at least still be able to filibuster the Senate.

[Vegas Vic]

McCain wins no Kerry states.
Obama wins Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada.

Obama 278 (51%)
McCain 260 (48%)

Three to four point "Bradley Effect" in the final poll averages, with a majority of "undecideds" breaking for McCain.

Senate Pickups:

(Dem.): VA, NM, CO, AK, NH, NC, OR = +7
(Rep.): None

House Pickups:

Dem. +24

[stevew]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

I think some people have forgot to include VA because it's such a foregone conclusion that Warner already seems like the incumbent.

Well, they'll just be leaving the Warner part on the nameplates, and just changing the first name. Easy transition.

[Solecismic]

McCain - 0
Obama - CO, IA, NV, NM, OH, VA.

Senate R - 0
Senate D - AK, CO, MN, NH, NM, NC, OR, VA.

House - Dem +24

[stevew]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Waiting and waiting for election results? | Thinking Right | ajc.com
Begins now the wait… It could be Friday before we know who won Georgia, opines the shrewd analyst of all things political, Randy Evans, an Atlanta lawyer and member of the State Election Board.

Three reasons, he says:

Long lines could mean that some vote-counting won’t start until after 9 p.m. Polls close at 7, but those who are there can vote, however long it takes.
Some 242,522 absentee ballots have to be counted, starting at 7 a.m. on Election Day. The counters are sequestered. If there are questions of improper voting, or outright fraud, ballots can be challenged. This year 2.2 million votes were cast early, a figure that includes the absentees. In the George W. Bush-John Kerry race four years ago, 422,485 early votes were cast.
Finally, notes Evans, “there are the provisional ballots and the challenged ballots.” If somebody shows up without proper photo ID, for example, he casts a provisional ballot and has 48 hours to produce proper identification. Disputes to clear up eligibility can be time-consuming. If it’s close, Georgia may not know the results for days, he says.

Everyone at the polls after 7 should defintely stay and vote. But they better fucking lock the line in place at 7pm on the dot. With all the early voting, there better not be some heinous claims of "disenfranchisement."

[lighthousekeeper]

Prediction:

Obama wins every state in a shutout
McCain wins no states

House Dems +25

[kernie]

John Sidney McCain III 278
Barack Hussein Obama II 260

[path12]

Obama 338, McCain 200

Obama: All Kerry plus NV, CO, NM, IA, OH, VA, FL
McCain: No Kerry states

Dem Senate pickups: VA, NM, AK, NH, CO, MN, OR, NC +8
Rep Senate pickups: none

Dem house gain: +25

Best Rep result: Rossi defeats Gregoire for WA Gov.