OOTP5: FOFC Groupthink

[Swaggs]

Hey guys, I'm moving the thread over here to get it off the mainboard.

I am working with Tasan tonight, to get the league file uploaded. Once it is working properly, I will post the link and we can get things underway.

A few notes:

--We will be playing as the San Diego Padres.
--We are using manager mode with Hall of Fame difficulty. We have been signed to a one-year contract (it has been my experience that you can start out with no better than a one year contract, and we will receive a better deal next season).
--Our draft will be 7 rounds long and take place on June 01.
--We will be using both arbitration and right to refuse minor league option.
--No salary cap.
--$25M cash maximum.
--No coaches/scouts.
--Authentic Hall of Fame, record books, minor league affiliates and career leaders have been added for a little bit of historic background.

[Swaggs]

League file is available here:

League File

Big, massive, huge thanks to Tasan.

I guess we can now begin. I prefer to go the play it by ear route, by the way. I was concerned that people might lose interest if we don't have some type of set schedule, so please give your thoughts in that area.

--Coaches and the minor league director can identify any areas of need to fill before opening day (Please note that in our introductory season, there is no 30 day free agent period or Sprign Training) and open dialogue on the players that should be on the opening day roster (I will be handing out some advice on this shortly, like the amount of pitchers vs position players on the 25 man roster, depth concerns, etc.).
--Our scout can identify players of interest.
--Our negotiations team can assess our financial position and give us an indication on the amount of money we have available (or need to cut) this season.

[Swaggs]

Once again, thanks to Tasan, we have a shiny, new, OOTP5-generated website:

FOFC Groupthink Site

[Chief Rum]

I will attempt to have a full minor league report up here tomorrow in the day. If I have to leave for my night job (you guys need to pay me more), though, it won't be up until later on in the evening.

You want a first impression? We need some work here...

Chief Rum
Minor League Director, San Diego Padres

[FBPro]

I'm going to look at the major league talent and depth, make roster move suggestions and some additional recommendations. It will probably be later in the day as well.

[Anrhydeddu]

Tonight, I will begin to assess and report our financial siutation, analyze where we are and what kind of shape we are in. This is important now as we begin the season to see what possibilities we have to bring in better players via trades, as well as to highlight those players that we need to keep a close eye on regarding extension/arbitration decisions.

Anrhydeddu
Chief Negotiator, San Diego Padres

[primelord]

Sorry for the OT post, but who did those rosters? They have clearly never seen the St. Louis Cardinals play defense. The gave Renteria and Vina (the regining gold glove winners at SS and 2B) D ranges. 6 of the 8 defensive players on the Cardinals have won gold gloves and they have an average range as a whole of a D. Thats crazy.

You can continue now.

Edit: Holy Crap and they made Woody Williams a better pitcher than Matt Morris. I literally don't think they have ever watched the Cardinals play.

[FBPro]

Originally posted by primelord
Sorry for the OT post, but who did those rosters? They have clearly never seen the St. Louis Cardinals play defense. The gave Renteria and Vina (the regining gold glove winners at SS and 2B) D ranges. 6 of the 8 defensive players on the Cardinals have won gold gloves and they have an average range as a whole of a D. Thats crazy.

You can continue now.

Edit: Holy Crap and they made Woody Williams a better pitcher than Matt Morris. I literally don't think they have ever watched the Cardinals play.

All this time I thought the Cardinals were a football team....

[Swaggs]

The rosters were the first to come out for OOTP5 and are fairly crappy. A new set came out a day or two ago, but these will work as a starting point for us.

[lynchjm24]

Originally posted by Swaggs
The rosters were the first to come out for OOTP5 and are fairly crappy. A new set came out a day or two ago, but these will work as a starting point for us.

/start standard 400 roster maker tirade
(edited) then do them your *(&#$ self.
/end standard 400 roster maker tirade.

[Tasan]

I'll have a scouting report for available free agents sometime tonight.

[Tasan]

Just after an initial glance, I see 4 people we might want to go after.

SP Kenny Rogers is still very much a quality starting pitcher, and he's only wanting around 2 million for a year contract. He appears to still 'have it' right now, but I'd stick to only a 1 year contract on him as he is 38.

MR Chris Nichting is a real nice veteran reliever who could help us out in the bullpen. His velocity is a tad low, much like Rogers, but I think he would help us out. He is real cheap at a half mil for a year, I'd like to see him signed to 2 season if we go after him.

CF Kenny Lofton is another old guy, but he'd give us either some much needed speed off of the bench, or some solid CF play as a starter. He's fairly cheap at around 1.7 mil, and again we only would look at him for a season at his age.

SS Mike Caruso is a pure contact hitting utility guy. He's only asking for a minor league deal, which I think would be good. He can play 2nd, 3rd, and SS, and can lay down a decent sac bunt.

Our main problem I see, as a scout looking at our team, is that we really lack power and right handed hitting. Unfortunately, the free agent market lacks quality right handed hitters and power. Our Pitching staff is weak as well, and I think we really need to add someone like Rogers to make a decent go of it this season. We have some talented pitchers in the minors, but they are a long way away right now. I'll detail our minors a little later on.

[Anrhydeddu]

I can't get at the files, it gives me a broken link and when I do a save as, it tells me the site is not available.

[Tasan]

Argh, my bad. In all the uploading and reuploading we had to do last night, I deleted the league file. I'll have it back up there real quick. Sorry about that folks.

[Tasan]

Okay it should be available now.

[Cuckoo]

Wow, the website looks great. I just got back into town and am downloading the league file as I type. I'll take a deeper look at the pitching staff and give a report in the morning.

[Swaggs]

Here are a few thoughts from the GM:

--I will authorize a payroll increase of between $10-12M for this season, if it will help us build a better team for this season and allow some of our younger players to develop a bit longer. This will ultimitately be left up to the negotiations team. I project we can still make a profit with this increase.

--I think we will need to carry 11 or 12 pitchers, based on the endurance levels of our starters and the quality of our staff overall. We should look to pick up some utility guys to backup our starters. I would like to see a guy that can play all three outfield spots (preferably w/ some proficiency) and a guy that can play 2B/3B/SS.

[FBPro]

Sorry due to a couple of other issues, I did not make it all the way through the roster tonight. I will try to complete it and get it up by early evening tomorrow.

[Tasan]

In light of what our GM has said, and the fact that we need some righties and a little power on the bench, I also recommend RF Israel Alcantara. He can play both LF and RF and hit for some power. He is slow and doesn't steal many bases though. Other options would be guys like LF Darren Lewis (no bat, all field), LF Rickey Henderson (O_L_D), and CF Jolbert Cabrera (not much bat and slow). All listed are righties though, and would take a minor league contract I believe.

[Anrhydeddu]

Since the file was not available when I was on last night, I'll do my best to catch up today and tonight. Knowing the target payroll is helpful, I'll see what short- and long-term implications there will be.

[Cuckoo]

From the Desk of the Pitching Coach

Okay, fellow staffers. Here's my detailed evaluation of the current major league pitching staff:

Overview:

I'll start with the positives. First, the bullpen looks better than expected. I'll go into more detail shortly. Second, we have a little bit of youth and a few solid long-term prospects here.

Now for the negatives. With youth comes inexperience and our relievers as a whole are not getting any younger. In addition, we are glaringly weak in a few areas.

Starters

We have no solid number one pitcher here. Brian Lawrence is the most promising for this season. He's still young, has a good arsenal of pitches, and has good control. He can go deep into games and will typically keep us in them. While he's not a dominant pitcher, he could be a solid contributor to this team.

Elsewhere, we have some promising youngsters. Jake Peavy and Oliver Perez are both just 21 years old. Perez, a lefty, is a good addition here. He has some nasty stuff and can throw a knuckleball very effectively. That said, he struggles at times with his control. Walks will be a concern here and I recommend a tight leash on both of these guys early on. Peavy has much better control but struggles with movement and pure stuff. He will give up the big hit. Both of these guys show solid potential and need to be evaluated this season as to their long term viability with this organization.

The bottom of the rotation will struggle mightily. Kevin Jarvis, a 33 year old, is an average pitcher at best. The only thing he won't do is walk himself into trouble. He will, though, have some rough games. We'll need some solid offense on the days he takes the mound.

Adam Eaton is overmatched here. While still young (25), he just simply doesn't have the talent to compete at a major league level. He has poor stuff, terrible control, and terrible velocity on his three pitches. We desperately need to search for another option here. Just about anyone would be a better solution at this point. In fact, I'm not even sure I see much of a future upside with Eaton. We could see if he'll still develop in the minors, but free agency may be the best place for him.

Overall, there's potential here. I like the general make-up of four righties and a lefty. I like the upside of the top three. I don't, though, like the fact that we just simply don't have a proven guy at the top of the rotation. While it's always good to give the young guys a chance, we need a veteran influence here. I'd agree with Tasan's assessment. If we can afford Rogers, snap him up. Plug him into the number one slot and drop Eaton. Let him be a positive influence on these young guys and give us some stability at the top.

Bullpen

As I said before, I am mildly impressed with the bullpen. We have a solid group here with only a piece or two missing.

Trevor Hoffman is outstanding at the end. He will save our tails on plenty of occasions. This guy is the heart and soul of this pitching staff and leads the bullpen.

We have a solid set of set-up guys in Orosco from the left side and Witasick from the right. Witasick is effective if unspectacular and Orosco is solid despite his age. In the long term, though, we'll need other options here as these guys aren't getting any younger. I foresee a significant drop-off in effectiveness in the coming years. For 2003, however, we have three very solid options at the backend of this pen.

In middle relief, we're not quite as sunny. At this point in time, we have one too many lefties. I would prefer to carry two left handed relievers in the bullpen and three right handers, not counting the closer. In addition, I believe the J.J. Trujillo should be moved up to our primary option in middle relief. Not only do I prefer to have a righty here, but I feel that Trujillo is our most solid option. He will not be dominant, but will keep us in a lot of games. I anticipate plenty of holds from him.

Kevin Walker should be the lefty to go at this point. There is much more of an upside with Bartosh despite his less experience and younger age. Bartosh could develop into an intriguing left-handed presence in this pen and his evaluation period should begin this year. He's ready for this challenge.

With Walker gone, we have an immediate need for a right handed reliever. I will let Tasan present us with some options. Nichting, perhaps, could be the answer. We certainly don't need anyone high-priced. We have a foundation in place with the end of the games covered. We need a right-hander who can throw a couple of innings here and there and not hurt us too badly. If Nichting is that guy, I recommend bringing him in as soon as possible.

Final thoughts

Overall, I'm excited about this group of guys. While it is certainly not guaranteed, we have a few pieces in place here for the future. Development will be important this season. I would recommend pitch counts on some of the younger guys and a quick hook with the bottom of the rotation. We are still in need of a few more pieces but the foundation is much more solid than I had first anticipated. We may be in for a ride this year, though, as consistency is much more than I can guarantee.

Regards,

Cuckoo
San Diego Padres' Pitching Coach

[Anrhydeddu]

At first glance, I don't think a $10-12m payroll increase can be justified. I'll provide more details tonight.

[Anrhydeddu]

There are 12 players currently on our rosters that we will be making a decision on. These 12 include those (4) who will be needing an extension if you want them to continue to play for us and 8 who we need to offer arbitration or release before the end of the season.

Of those 12, I placed each of them in a high-medium-low category solely based on ratings, not taking into consideration roster needs or results. Tonight, I will presenting a couple of scenarios with these 12 and how they will likely impact our financials for next season - just to provide financial considerations as we go through the season.

[Anrhydeddu]

I tried to Open the lg file and it says that the player file is invalid. Obviously it did not come with it so tell me what the hell I need to do.

[FBPro]

Did you unzip it using the option in your unzipping program to use "original path or folders"?

[Anrhydeddu]

Yes, that is the default setting. I did, however, went back and unzipped it manually (instead of unzip to folder...) and it worked. Thanks.

[Swaggs]

Excellent work, Cuckoo. I am excited to see what Perez and Peavy will do, both this season and in the future.

Anrhy, by my calculations, we will have the following income sources this season:

--Broadcast Revenue: $23M (guaranteed).
--Attendance Revenue: $20.25M (estimated by taking 81 games x $250K per game, which seems reasonable considering we made about $275K last season, in a down year).
--Merchandise Revenue: $6M (estimated based conservitavely on last season's total of $6.8M).
--Total Revenue Conservatively Anticipated: $49.25M

Payroll is at $35.305M right now, so if we bump it up to $45M-$47M, we should still make a modest profit. Again, the actual signings and money management are at your team's discretion.

However, I think we can confidentally support the $10M-$12M increase in payroll for this season with one caveat: the players added will be signed with the intention of playing only one season for the Padres.

[Anrhydeddu]

I completing my analysis as we speak and will present the scenarios tomorrow. There is one fallacy in your numbers in that you are comparing revenues/attendance to last season. Last season was run in real life (where I think the numbers came from) and not in OOTP5. OOTP5 seems to intrepret Fan Loyalty differently than the aberrations we see in the MLB. However, that does not mean that your estimates are incorrect. More to come.

[FBPro]

Here is my long time coming player analysis:

Being the batting coach I wanted to go over each position looking at our strengths and weaknesses. Trying to find the spots where we may have talent to spare and where we lack and may need to look for help. Here goes:


Catcher: Behind the plate we are not extremely gifted, however we do have quite the defensive specialist in 28 yr old Wiki Gonzalez. Blessed with a A/A arm and range he should help keep the stolen bases at a minimum, not sure how much range helps behind the plate however. At the plate he is quite average, if not below though is discipline will help him to be a more effective hitter. Gary Bennett is our other back stop, he appears to be a slightly better contact hitter but provide less pop. He is weak defensively and with his arm. Based on the talent at hand I name Gonzalez as the starting catcher, with Bennett getting roughly 1-2 starts per week.

Firstbase: One of our strong positions, Ryan Klesko is by far the starter. He hits for both average and power, has a pretty good eye so he’ll draw he share of walks and not strike out quite as much as other power hitters. A .300/30/100 season is not out of the question with him if he gets some additional help from those batting around him. Backing him up is a journeymen corner infielder Dave Hansen. He hits righties well but will struggle against lefties. Should be an adequate backup and pinch hitter, but we need Ryan to stay healthy.

Secondbase: Current selecion of players at this position is mixed, Mark Loretta appears to be the choice. He should hit somewhere in the .260-.275 range a handful of homers but don’t expect much more than that. He is versatile having experience at 1st, 2nd, 3rd and SS which is a plus in any league. As far as backups go Keith Lockhart is it and he is questionable at best.

Thirdbase: Only one to choose from Sean Burroughs(the roster makers sure didn’t do him any favors) but he’s what we’ve got now. He’s young and hopefully will develop. He should hit ok for average but not much power. Phil Nevin has held the position as well and may see quite a bit of duty here.

Shortstop: Ramon Vazquez looks to be the starter a short and should fill the bill nicely. He’s got a pretty good bat but not much to write home about with the glove.

Leftfield: There are 3 LF on the roster but realistically only 2 will play of the current ones. Phil Nevin and Bubba Trammell look to battle it out for the starting spot, both are fairly solid at the plate and neither is great in the field. 39 year old Brady Anderson is also on the roster though his days appear to be numbered.

Centerfield: Two pretty decent ball players in center, Mark Kotsay and Kory DeHaan. Kotsay is slated to get the bulk of the PT and should give us a fairly productive year. .280/15/75 are not out of the question for him. DeHaan gives us all three OF spots to use him in which is a plus. Neither has true centerfield “speed”, a plus for Kotsay is a “gun” for an arm.

Rightfield: In right we have an untested Brian Buchanan. He has decent power and may surprise given 500 atbats. Not much of an arm for a RF but covers ground well out there.

Overall recommendations: Several positions look promising and several have potential but it is too early to tell.

Strength Batting: Klesko , all three outfield starters(Nevin, Kotsay and Buchanan) are either proven or appear to have potential and I think that Vazquez at short could surprise with the bat.

Strength Fielding: Gonzalez behind the plate and with his arm, Loretta should cover some ground at 2nd, DeHaan should be a good defensive replacement in the outfield and Buchanan will run down more than his share of balls. Kotsay will lend a hand with his strong accurate arm.

Player moves recommended: I think we need a replacement for Lockhart as a backup at 2nd and the INF, Brady Anderson has some speed but little else and feel we could do better in the long run with someonelse.

Comments, etc. are welcome.

Thursday: projected starting lineups


FBPro
Head Batting Coach
San Diego Padres

[Chief Rum]

Memo

To: San Diego Padres Management Staff

From: Matt Kieta, Minor League Director

Date: March 20, 2003

Re: Minor League Status Report

Mr. Swager & Company:

It is with some dismay that I note the lackluster talent reported in the fine assessments of our major league talent by our esteemed pitching and hitting coaches, for that puts the onus on my minor league system to produce—and I have reached the conclusion that we are nowhere near prepared to help out in this regard.

According to the latest rankings available to us, we have currently the 23rd best farm system in the bigs. And that is including Jake Peavy and Oliver Perez, who are already with the major league club. That means that just seven systems in the league have been judged to be worse off than us—and seeing the condition of our system, I find that hard to believe.

Further contributing to the problem is the fact that, outside of the Dodgers, our division competition is well-ahead of us in this regard, particularly Colorado, which has the consensus top farm system in all of the major leagues.

Currently, we have just two prospects in the Top 100—SPs Mark Phillips (43rd) and Justin Germano (80th), both at least a year away and probably two.

So what’s the problem? Here they are:

1) Lack of depth: We only have 24 players in our farm system, and 10 of them are past the age at which they can be expected to develop in the minor leagues. They either need to be in the majors, or they need to be traded or cut.

2) Lack of brilliance: Of the prospects we have, we do have a handful of average to above-average talent level—but no one of true superstar talent. There is no one currently in our system that we can really hang our hat on. The June draft will help this a bit, but it’s going to take longterm planning to get this done.

Here’s a review of our best prospects, going from AAA down to A:

AAA Portland Beavers

MR Eric Cyr—4 stars: Cyr has the stuff to be one of the better relievers in the league. If it weren’t for the fact that the bullpen is probably our deepest position, I would push for him to take a spot on the top roster right now. Cyr barely breaks 90 with his fastball, but he is very effective at changing speeds and has excellent command of all three of his pitches. He can go in the bigs now, or stay at AAA for seasoning.

MR Mike Bynum—3 stars: Bynum and Cyr are virtual carbon-copies of each other from the standpoint of skills and pitching style, although Cyr has much more upside. Bynum also only knows two pitches—a fastball and a slider--, so that may limit his effectiveness. That said, he does have limited ability to actually start for us, which is an area of need, and I dare say he can give Eaton a run for his money if we decide to play it conservative with the finances. Just don’t expect wonders out of him. Bynum should be in the bigs now, because I don’t think he will much more improvement at AAA.

LF Xavier Nady—3 stars: Most of you have probably heard of Nady. It is much to my disappointment to discover that he isn’t as highly regarded as I had hoped, at least not by our minor league scouts. Nady is well-rounded player at the plate, and he should be able to use his hulking 6’4” frame to develop into a 30+ HR hitter. He is definitely a player for us to keep our eye on, and will be a keystone for us in the future. But he falls short of the superstar status I had hoped he might achieve. Right now, he strikes me as a regular .280-30-110 guy, which would be a nice #5 or #6 hitter on a championship level squad. He can play in left or right, although he displays more range in left. Wherever he plays, he has a cannon for an arm, but is a given to flub up a few easy flies every year. With the depth we have in the OF, I would recommend keeping this guy down at AAA for another year of seasoning and then, depending on how he does, giving him a starting OF spot in 2004.

AA Mobile Bay Bears

SP Mark Phillips—4 stars: Phillips is probably our best minor league prospect at the moment, but as I said before, he is merely the best among a relatively undistinguished group of above-average talents. Phillips should grow into a #2 or a nice #3 pitcher for us. He has good zip and movement on his fastball, pushing the mid-90s, and he has good command on four pitches. He does look to have some control problems, though, and he needs to work on keeping the ball down, which is not a strength. Phillips is at least a year away and probably two. ETA 2005.

CL Rusty Tucker—4 stars: Phillips may get the props, but Tucker is not far behind him. And better yet, Tucker is further along than Phillips, so there is an outside shot he will be ready by 2004. Tucker has the versatility to both start and relieve and the durability to handle both. Scouts put his arm on a par with Phillips, if a tad less speed. Interestingly enough, he is also considered to be a player whose main problems will be with control and homeruns, but he has as much of a chance of being a solid #2 or #3 as Phillips does. He is currently tabbed as the closer for Mobile, as our guys down there are checking his versatility, but I am as yet undecided where I would like this guy to go. I figure he will be in AAA by July at the latest.

1B Tagg Bozied—3.5 stars: We may not have any outright studs, but we certainly do have enough of Bozied’s type—seemingly good solid young players. Bozied is similar to Nady in his approach to the plate and what he brings to a team with his bat. He also makes for a fine heir apparent for Klesko in a couple years, should we move in a direction that does not include Ryan in the future. He should be ready by 2005, but don’t be surprised if he doesn’t get a regular spot in the bigs until 2006.

2B Jake Gautreau—3 stars: Gautreau isn’t ever going to open anyone’s eyes with his outright talent, but he could develop. He at least provides with nice depth or a decent trading chip for the future, and at worst a cheap alternative at 2B for a few years int eh future. For him to go beyond just a decent MLB starter, though, he will likely have to exceed his current talents. He isn’t fast are particularly able in the field, so he will more than likely earn his keep at the plate where he should be able to hit for both some power and a little average. Gattreau is almost ready for AAA, and might even be able to start at 2B in 2004. My bet, though, is that he will reach the bigs in 2005, as a decent power bat off the bench at the least.

2B Bernabel Castro—2.5 stars: Castro is the reason I’m not overly impressed with Gautreau—or worried about us at 2B for a good while. While little man Castro (all of 5’10” 160) will never develop Gautreau’s power, he should be as effective with the bat, and my scouts tell me he already has above average plate major league plate discsipline, which is stunning for a AA player. What I really like about him, though, is that he is a switch-hitting spray hitter who may be the best base stealer in the minor leagues—not the Padres’ minors; all of them. With his discipline and speed and versatility, he is a leadoff hitter waiting to happen. On top of that, he is also a potential Gold Glove winner at 2B. He may be ready in 2004, but I would pencil him in for 2005 instead, to give him seasoning and see if he can develop a little power.

SP Ben Howard—2.5 stars: Howard looks like a potential concern, being 24 and at AA. His talent also doesn’t look all that awe-inspiring. But don’t give up hope yet. He’s exactly the kind of pitcher who will slip under the radar and end up being an effective pitcher. He doesn’t have the stuff to be more than a #4 pitcher, more than likely, but he doesn’t really have any holes either, his fastball hits the mid-90s, he throws four pitchers, and he has an amazing 75% groundball ratio. Historically, guys with that kind of heat and ability to put the ball on the ground regularly do very well, and he also looks to have nice control as well. The main concern—other than his age—right now, though, is that he fatigues way too early as a starter. He might be better to switch to MR. He should be ready by 2004, but could wait until 2005 if needed.

A Lake Elsinore Storm

SP Justin Germano—3.5 stars: Our second-best prospect is also likely on his way to becoming a #2/#3 style pitcher in the bigs, although he has a long way to go. Germano has the heat to match Phillips and Howard, and better control—in fact, he may already have better control of his four pitches than most of our major league staff. His problem is that his ball straightens out a little too often, and he doesn’t get as much movement as he needs to. He isn’t particularly bad giving up the longball, but with the fact that he will likely always be near the plate with a ball that doesn’t move much, Germano will need a good defense behind him to truly be effective. If he’s up sooner than 2006, I’ll eat this memo. It might even be 2007.

SS Khalil Green—3.5 stars: In reality, Green isn’t as likely to be as effective as the plate as Nady or Bozied. He’s too much of a free swinger. But let’s face it—how many SS’s will likely hit 30 HRs every year? Green could be that guy. On top of that, he also has very nice range at a tough defensive position, even if he misplays the hops a little too often. He is 23, which is a bit older than I like to see in a Single-A player, but my scouts tell me he should be ready for AA soon. ETA 2005 as a backup, with 2006 as a starter.

CF Jason Bay—3.5 stars: Another case of too little, too late? Bay may have missed his chance, now that he’s 24. And that’s too bad since he has at least as much hitting ability as Gautreau, he has good range in center, good speed and instincts on the basepaths, and even a decent arm. He’s like a five-tool player viewed through the wrong end of binoculars. Cross your fingers that Bay suddenly gets it, though, because he is going to have make some monumental ability jumps to get to at least AAA level by next year. He will either be up in 2005 or likely cut.

2B Josh Barfield—2.5 stars: With Gautreau and Castro both further developed and more talented than Barfield, he is a longshot to make it, but he might have the tools to be a cheap backup someday, and when you’re a small market squad, I figure you can never have enough of those. He won’t really hurt us on D, and he has some nice skills and speed on the basepaths. He should develop some contact ability as well, and light power somewhere in between where Gautreau and Castro are. He could reach AA soon, but if he does, he should be trained at different positions to make him more effective as a utility infielder in the future. Besides, with Gautreua and Castro at AA, we already have a logjam at 2B as it is.

Those are the prospects, and there really isn’t much else to mention about the system. We do have some players who can help us in the bigs, such as Cyr and Bynum. Do not be fooled by Brian Tollberg, Dennis Tankersley, Charles Nagy or Jaret Wright, though—these guys, once considered good prospects, have missed the boat and are no longer effective options. Their ability to develop further is virtually nil, thanks to their respective ages, and they would all get shelled off of a major league mound with their current skills.

We do have a decent pen filler in MR Clay Condrey, a 2-star fringe reliever who could be solid, and Courtney Duncan, similar to Condrey but without any upside.

But the guy I really wanted to point out is Brandon Villafuerte, an amazing 4.5 star reliever at AAA. I didn’t mention him in prospects, because my scouts say he has nothing else to learn at the minor league level. The guy is already better than everyone in our major league pen, except for the veteran three, and he has the talent and time to develop more. This guy SHOULD be on the Opening Day roster and not throwing to snot-nosed kids up in Portland. Villafuerte has some control isues to work on, but he won’t improve in the minors anymore, and he already does one thing I love in relievers—he keeps the ball down and inside the park.

We also have a low-talent 1B at AAA in Alex Pelaez whom, IMO, would make for a nice and cheap backup. He can even make contact and hit for a little power, even though he has likely reached the limits of his abilities.

Overall Positional Status of System

Other than the lack of any true ace prospects, we are very deep in starting pitching and reasonably so in the pen. Tucker, Howard, Phillips and Germano form a fine group of minor league arms, especially considering that Peavy, Perez and Lawrence at the major league level are all also very young. Villafuerte, Condrey, Cyr, Bynum, and Duncan (with Howard and Tucker also as possibilities) all make for decent to good pen options in the future as well.

Our hitters are another matter. We should be fine at 2B, with the depth that we have there, but we’re crossing our fingers that Nady, Bozied and Green will reach the bigs soon and be what we need. We don’t have any real options at all at just about any other positions, we got screwed in our earlier assessments of Sean Burroughs, we have no elite hitting prospects whatsoever, and even plastic kiddie pools would laugh if we called what we have “depth”.

While I would like to see an actual top closer prospect in the system and a can’t-miss type of ace prospect, overall, I see no reason why we won’t be fine with pitching for a good while yet. But hitting is going to be a problem will likely hit upon in the very near future, and is an area that has me deeply concerned, enough to ask Mr. Swager to consider it a primary need of the organization.

So What Is My Plan?

I don’t have any hard and fast rules for developing the system. I go with the talent, and mostly let the scouts tell me when a guy is ready to move up. I like to let hitters develop at AAA until they are ready to start, but I’m willing to throw young pitchers to the wolves early, because, in my experience, pitchers take a little time to develop and need see all the major league hitters they can before they become effective (and for that reason I would also counsel the management staff to be very patient with Peavy and Perez).

My recommendations:

1) Let’s start trading for some good prospects. I’m not the kind of guy to throw in the towel before a season starts, but I am a realist. We have seen the talent at the major league level—barring some unforeseen miracle of circumstances, this team does not have the talent to contend for a division title this year, so keeping effective veteran relievers like Hoffman and Orosco around is a little pointless. I recommend we move them for minor league help, especially in hitting, and bring up some of our decent minor league arms. I would also highly recommend if we move Hoffman to throw Villafuerte into the closer role and see how he does. My intuition says he could be a good one there.

2) Start scouring for prospects. I don’t know what it is about these opening rosters, but whenever I see new roster sets like this used, a lot of decent to solid prospects end up getting tossed out into the cold mere weeks into the season. All they are looking for are minor league contracts, and we are nowhere near the point where a logjam of players will become an issue in our minor leagues. I would ask Mr. Swager and our scout to watch the free agent pool carefully for any blue-star prospects at 2 stars or above that are younger than 25 (or 24 if their ratings are below 2 in Stuff or Contact). What would it cost us to give these guys a chance? Get them to me, and I will see what I can do.

3) I don’t know how much input I will have into the amateur draft. That sounds like a scout’s job. But assuming the draft order is modeled after the 2002 end-of-season results, we should have a good pick. And we need a damn good hitting prospect—at virtually nay position.

Sorry for the long report, but there was just a lot to talk about.

Go Padres

Matt Kieta aka Chief Rum
San Diego Padres Minor League Director

[Cuckoo]

From The Desk of The Pitching Coach

Date: March 20, 2003

Gentlemen,

Upon the recommendation of our esteemed minor league director, I began the task of perusing these minor league pitchers deemed worthy of major league play.

While I previously mentioned Tasan's suggestion of Nichting as a right handed option in the pen, I feel that Villafuerte is just as if not more of a solid option at this point. I don't feel that I can, though, advocate handing over the closer reigns just yet. I concede that trading Hoffman could bring in a significant number of prospects, and this may be something we could consider at the trading deadline. At this point, though, I feel he is simply too valuable in that role. That said, Villafuerte would be an outstanding addition to the pen. I would consider handing him the primary set-up role and give him the opportunity to soon develop into the closer of choice.

From the left side, I have also become intrigued by Mr. Cyr's abilities, and I certainly agree with the Chief's assessment. I would definitely advocate exploring trade possibilities with respect to our aging Orosco. If the young talent received is good enough, I can safely say that our major league staff will not take too large of a blow to the men of the southpaw.

As for minor-league options at starter, I also agree with Chief in that there are much better prospects than our current number five, Mr. Eaton. I still feel, though, that bringing in a veteran starter with consistency and experience will aid us greatly in the future with the development of our young arms. I strongly urge this as the course of action.

Regards,

Cuckoo
San Diego Padres' Pitching Coach

[3ric]

Chief, one newbie question - I downloaded the league file to better follow your discussion, and there's some difference in your opinion about AA prospect Mark Phillips to OOTP's description of him:

Chief Rum:

He does look to have some control problems, though, and he needs to work on keeping the ball down, which is not a strength.

OOTP:

Mark Phillips has good stuff, he keeps the ball down and keeps constantly hitters guessing.

How do you determine whether he can keep the ball down or not? Sorry for the dumb question, but I just can't see it.

[Edit:]Wait, now I see it - groundball percentage. Bear with me, I'm have some more terminology to learn to fully understand CR's excellent writing.

[Anrhydeddu]

From the Office of the Chief Negotiator

Revenues and Profits

After close examination and analysis, it is estimated that Total Revenues for the 2003 of the San Diego Padres will be about $48,000,000 (margin of error: 4-5%). This was calculated as follows:

Broadcasting: $23,000,000 (fixed)
Merchandise: $ 6,700,000 (+/- 2%)
Attendance: $18,300,000 (assuming 23,000/game at $10 each)

Total Revenue: $48,000,000

The average attendance of 23,000 per game (+/- 1%) is based on samples of other teams with a last place expectations and fan loyalty in the 30s. As the season goes on, being last in the standings will drive the loyalty down a bit. The below average attendance dip at the end of the season will be offset by the above attendance at the beginning of the season. This translates into about 1.8 million fans for the season. It is not known whether a decrease in ticket price to $9 will bring in more revenues or conversely, an increase to $11.

Accepting the estimated revenue at $48,000,000, this will allows us to have a profit of about $11,500,000 (assuming payroll stays the same at about $35,000,000). This profit will have the following effect:

1. Raise our Cash Reserves from $5,000,000 to $16,500,000 (still easily under the $25,000,000 cash max).

2. Have about $27,000,000 available for Extensions.

3. Have about $22,000,000 available for Free Agents.

An increase in this season’s payroll will not have much impact on these totals since cash totals for this season are not figured until the next season (I believe).

However, you need balance the need for reduced profit this season (and what little we would gain from that) versus the flexibility of having more funds available to us for extensions/arbitrations and free agents in future seasons.

Free Agents and Arbitration

On the current roster, we will have 4 Free Agents and 8 players eligible for Arbitration. It is fortunate that the 8 players up for arbitration are all on the low end of the salary spectrum (going by age and ratings). In other words, each of those players will likely get less than $1,000,000 in arbitration, probably averaging around $500,000. This is assuming none of these players have a large development bump. The effect on the bottom on whether to offer Arbitration to all of these players is minimal – likely only a $1,400,000 increase ($4,000,000 projected salary - $2,600,000 current salary).

The four free agents (Lockhart, Bennett, Hansen and Bush) are all making the minimal salary this season. Hansen, at age 34, would be the only one perhaps asking for a decent raise but the others are all older players with low skill ratings. Not offering arbitration or extensions to any of the 12 players will reduce payroll by $3,800,000. Also you need to factor in potential retirements. Anderson and Orosco will most likely retire, and perhaps Nagy as well. Assuming all three will retire, additional payroll reductions will total about $2,000,000 ($1,650,000 if just Anderson and Orosco retire).

Conclusion

The conclusion is that very little decision-making will be required regarding extensions and arbitrations, all of our most talented players are under long-term contracts. As the season progresses, the situation might change if you decide to bring in a short-term star contract. We do have the financial flexibility to improve our team, I would recommend being cautious in the next season or two, letting our youngsters develop. In the 2005 season, most of our stars will be in their next-to-last year of the contract (except for Nevin) and that would be a good target for aggressively pursuing free agents. Also, we should have a nice increase in attendance when our new stadium opens up in 2004 (if the game can produce an increase in fan loyalty based on that).

[Swaggs]

From The Office of the General Manager

Re: Potential Upgrades at the Major League Level
Date: March 20, 2003


With opening day mere days away, it has come to my attention that there are still major league caliber free agents available.

Please review the attached list of players to determine:
1.) whether they will improve the major league roster this season (ie: chances of making the roster and producing).
2.) whether they could have a long term impact on the franchise.
2.) whether their salary is acceptable to the bottom line of our franchise.
3.) whether these players could provide us with trade currency should we fall out of contention for the postseason.




SP Kenny Rogers Let's not sugarcoat this. Rogers is a 38 year old starting pitcher that has had a history of ups and downs. He is not a long term solution, nor is he a savior for the short term. However, the fact that he pitched 210 innings with a sub 4.00 ERA in the American League combined with our scout's report that he is still a capable major league starter leads me to believe he could improve our team this season. If he is able to pitch 200 innings with a 4.40 ERA, he will allow everyone else on our staff to drop down a spot AND with that amount of innings pitched, would give our bullpen a rest during most of his appearances.

MR Chris Nichting Another short term improvement, Nichting could provide a veteran presence and another righty out of the bullpen. His agent has advised me that he would sign for just over $500K, and I think he would easily earn his salary this season. He comes recommended from out scouting staff.

LF David Justice Justice's agent has advised me that he would be willing to sign a minor league deal to join the Padres. He is not the same player he was 8-10 years ago, but for his price, I think he would be a solid addition as a starter vs righthanded pitching at RF (with Buchannon getting the ABs vs lefthanded pitching). He can still hit fairly well and will provide a solid on base percentage. Plus, he might put some fannies in the seats.

SS Mike Caruso Caruso, who shares an agent with Justice, would also agree to sign with a minor league contract with us. Our scout recommends him and, at the major league minimum, I strongly agree. At worst, he will provide us with a capable backup at three infield positions. At best, he might unseat one of our projected starters and provide solid defense, a good on base percentage, and a .280-.300 average.


IF-OF Jolbert Cabrera Another player willing to sign for the minimum, Cabrera is not really a starting caliber player, but his ability to play multiple positions make him a good option as a 25th man or AAA insurance.

1B Ivan Cruz Cruz has a major league bat, but the only defensive position he can play, and he doesn't play it well, is 1B. His power might make him a nice option for the bench or AAA insurance.

C Dave Ross Our franchise is very thin at catcher--it is the area is in the greatest need of improvement. Ross is young (26 years old), has a great arm, is an acceptable hitter now, and looks as if he could mature into an even better hitter. I think if we could get him into our system and through a few spring trainings, we could have an all star on our hands.


Again, please review these players and advise as to their (potential) worth to our franchise. Please keep in mind that we are working from a one year contract and all of our jobs are on the line.

[Swaggs]

From The Office of the General Manager

Re: Minor League System Review
Date: March 21, 2003

Mr. Kieta,

Please be advised that I am very impressed with your report (as I am with all of the contributions--great job guys!) of our minor league system. You did an excellent job of analyzing our prospects and by identifying our strengths and weaknesses, we will be able to act accordingly to improve our system.

After reviewing your report, I have a few questions:

1.) I am intrigued by AAA middle reliever Brandon Villafuerte. Please advise as to his long and short term potential for our ballclub. Is it possible he could contribute now?

2.) Your report on pitcher Rusty Tucker leads me to believe that his value to the franchise may be greater as a starter rather than a closer. Please take a close look at the pros and cons of trying him as a starting pitcher vs a closer.

Again, thank you for the hard work. Looking forward to hearing your thoughts on the aforementioned items.

[Swaggs]

From the Office of the General Manager


Re: Attention All Staffmembers
Date: March 21, 2003

Based on the reviews given by our esteemed coaching staff and our minor league director and some exploration into the trade market, I have identified a scenario that I believe will improve our franchise:

1.) We sign free agent C Dave Ross to replace our current C Wilki Gonzalez on our major league roster.

2.) I have shopped Wilki Gonzalez and found a deal that I believe would be very favorable to our franchise. The Los Angelas Dodgers are willing to trade us AAA MR Alfredo Gonzalez in exchange for Wilki Gonzalez.

I believe acquiring C Dave Ross and MR Afredo Gonzalez at the expense of Wilki Gonzalez would be beneficial to the overall talent level of our franchise.

Let's consider this scenario over the next day or so. Perhaps our scout can provide us with an analysis of the two players that we may acquire.

Thank You,
C. Swager
GM San Diego Padres

[Tasan]

I'll get on it in the morning.

[FBPro]

I would agree that the moves look like they would help our ball club overall, Ross and Wiki are close defensively but Ross has the better bat. Adding Alfredo Gonzalez adds some youth and depth to the bullpen.

[Anrhydeddu]

With the exception of Kenny Rogers (what is he asking), I don't see any negative financial impact on any of the potential signees or trades.

What is the opinion of the GM on the payroll target this season?

[Tasan]

Alfredo Gonzalez, MR, Los Angeles Dodgers

Gonzalez is a 23 year old, 5'11" 160lb right handed middle reliever from Mexico. He has average endurance for a reliever, and is pretty average at holding runners. He has shown superior consistency and keeps his composure in the clutch. He does not have an injury problem at this point in his career.

We rate him good across the board for his potential with his stuff, movement, and control. His velocity is comparable to stud reliever Francisco Rodriguez (K-Rod) of Anaheim. Currently, he rates average to slightly above average with his stuff, movement, and control, but as mentioned, expect these to improve some. His velocity alone might carry him to higher performance levels right now though. He throws 4 good pitches, a fastball, changeup, slider, and splitter. He is somewhat of a liability in the field.

Overall he gets 4.5 stars as a prospect.


Dave Ross, C, Free Agent

Ross is a 26 year old, 6'2" 205lb right handed catcher from Bainbridge, GA. He is slow on the bases, doesn't steal at all, but can lay down a decent sac bunt. He is a pull hitter. Ross has shown solid consistency, but doesn't have a flair for clutch performances. He is healthy and not thought to be injury prone at this point in his career.

While just an average contact hitter with an average eye, Ross shows good potential for power hitting. He has an excellent arm for a catcher, and should hold runners on his own. He has average range for a catcher, and has no other skills at other fielding positions. Currently, he is a little behind in his plate discipline and contact hitting, and just an average power hitter, but we should see these move up a little as mentioned.

Overall, we rate him at 2.5 stars.

[lynchjm24]

Originally posted by Swaggs
From the Office of the General Manager


Re: Attention All Staffmembers
Date: March 21, 2003



1.) We sign free agent C Dave Ross to replace our current C Wilki Gonzalez on our major league roster.

2.) I have shopped Wilki Gonzalez and found a deal that I believe would be very favorable to our franchise. The Los Angelas Dodgers are willing to trade us AAA MR Alfredo Gonzalez in exchange for Wilki Gonzalez.

I believe acquiring C Dave Ross and MR Afredo Gonzalez at the expense of Wilki Gonzalez would be beneficial to the overall talent level of our franchise.

Thank You,
C. Swager
GM San Diego Padres

It's a free prospect - hard to say no to that.

[lynchjm24]

Originally posted by Swaggs
From The Office of the General Manager

Re: Potential Upgrades at the Major League Level
Date: March 20, 2003

1B Ivan Cruz Cruz has a major league bat, but the only defensive position he can play, and he doesn't play it well, is 1B. His power might make him a nice option for the bench or AAA insurance.

Alcantara is 5 years younger and can play both corner OF as well as first.

His platoon split might not be as helpful, but he's probably more usefull then Cruz.

[lynchjm24]

Brian Mallette, Reliever, 28 yrs, No Team

6/7/5/6 G/A/A

May be of some help if he's 'free'.

[Chief Rum]

Thanks for the compliments, Mr. Swager. And, please feel free to call me Matt or Chief in informal opinion-gatherings such as this.

I am really excited about Villafuerte's potential. I'm glad that the consensus so farseems to be that I am right in Villafuerte needing to be on the major league roster, for I don't think he will improve at all continuing to face AAA batters.

In the short term, I believe Villafuerte can be a strong contributing member of the bullpen, if not up to what I think he can approach in the future. From my experience, it takes a year or two for most young pitchers to really pitch to their skill abilities. Villafuerte seems to have the abilities to appear in a fair amount of games right now and put up a sub-4.00 ERA. As a young player, though, his ERA is more likely to be in the 4.00-5.00 range this year. He will likely have more control problems than in the future this year as well.

In the longterm, he could potentially be one of the best relievers in the league. He already has the stuff and movement to avoid most bats. It's the kind of stuff that can rack up the strikeouts and make most hitters look pretty silly. Like I said before, his stuff spins down as well and keeps it low, so what bats do get on it will hit the ball into the dirt for the most part. He may have control issues, and that may the lone real problem with him. Even then, though, he shouldn't be any more prone to walks than the average reliever. I foresee a great setup man with sub-3.00 ERA potential, and the ability to close as well.

Rusty Tucker does indeed have the potential to work well as both a reliever or a starter. In fact, his extraordinary starter-durability (C range) for a reliever leads me to believe he was initially a starter and is only a closer right now because of some mionor league experimentation by the past regime.

Tucker may even have the ability to surpass Phillips as our #1 prospect. He is very similar to Phillips in what he brings to the table. What puts him ahead, though, is that he is regarded a a great team leader type with good consistency, he is left-handed, he is just shy of AAA ability and could conceivably be in the majors as soon as the middle of this season, and he looks to be a little better at keeping the ball in the park than Phillips is. I highly recommend coverting him back to starter, coupled perhaps by turning Mike Bynum, a minimal-duration starter, into a MR, where he, too, might be more aptly placed.

I also think the conversion of Tucker to a starter is more critical because it is my contention that Perez may not turn out as well as we like. I definitely have my doubts about a pitcher with such pitiful velocity and likely severe control problems.

I think that by 2005, we can have a very good, young staff with Peavy, Lawrence, Phillips and Tucker and a wealth of other options for a fifth starter, including Perez, that would make it unnecessary for us to venture into the risky and costly free agent market.

As for the trade proposal, I am entirely for that. Gonzalez looks like the real deal and he can play in the majors right now. His acquisition would, in fact, solidify even further my recommendations on Viullafuerte and Phillips. I think Gonzalez could be one of the best closers in the league, with that velocity and talent. And Villafuerte would make an excellent shut-down setup man, giving us a great success rate if we hit the eighth inning with a lead. And the addition of Gonzalez removes the need to use a pitcher like Tucker at closer, thus allowing us to move him to starter.

Normally, I wouldn't advocate for a trade that seeks to improve an area where we don't really need it (the bullpen), but this situation, IMO, is entirely too good to pass up.

Matt Kieta
Minor League Director

[Swaggs]

From The Office of the General Manager

Attention Anrhydeddu

Re:
Date: March 22, 2003

Dear Mr. A.,

Would it be possible for you to contact the agents of the following free agent players and determine their salary requests:


SP Kenny Rogers
MR Chris Nichting
LF David Justice
RF Israel Alcantara
SS Mike Caruso
IF-OF Jolbert Cabrera
1B Ivan Cruz
C Dave Ross

With our payroll currently at $35.305M and our projected income conservatively estimated at $48M, I believe we should invest some of the expected profits back onto the playing field, but we should also try to bank as much money as possible.

I think we can comfortably add up to $6M to our payroll for the upcoming season, while still producing solid profits of roughly $6M-$8M.

Let's see what the cost will be to add these players--I am hopeful we might be able to add all 8 and still be under the projected increase in budget.

In addition, please contact the agent of C Dave Ross to determine the odds of his client signing a long term deal with us, as I believe he may have long term value to the franchise. Perhaps comparing our scout's ratings with other similar players throughout the league will give us a good idea of fair market value.

[Swaggs]

Anrhydeddu, for this offseason only (since their is no actual free agent signing period), would it be alright for you to post your offers here and I will extend the offers to the free agents we decide to sign?

In future off seasons, I anticipate you managing the file (ie: extending offers through the end of the 30 day signing period and any executing any trade considerations), but for the purpose of getting our first season underway and since these free agents will pretty much only take what they are asking for (or more), this will probably be easiest.

Also, if Tasan can get in touch with Anrhydeddu, perhaps over AIM, to explain how to upload the file via FTP sometime, that would be great.

[FBPro]

Can you post here when/if the file is updated? I'm assuming that the rsoter moves of above have been made.

[Swaggs]

No roster moves have been made as of yet. I am still waiting for the payroll information from Anrhydeddu.

Once he checks in and has a chance to post the salaries, we will get a new file up, get the coaches to make their roster/depth/lineup/staff decisions, and get underway.

[Chief Rum]

This might be time for an executive decision.

He may not have sent a memo around, but Anrhydeddu came into my office before he left for the weekend and talked about a trip he and his kid were making to his folks this weekend. Apparently it was going to extend into next week as well, a five-day vacation.

I just called HR and confirmed this with them.

So we may need to either wait it out, or, Charlie, maybe you can review the numbers and see if you can make the decisions on this one until A gets back.

Matt Kieta
Minor League Director

[Swaggs]

From The Office of the General Manager

Attention: All Staff Members

Re: Roster Additions
Date: March 24, 2003

Please be advised that the following players were signed on April 1, 2003 (no joke!):

[b]SP Kenny Rogers:[b] $2.011M over 1 year
[b]MR Chris Nichting:[b] $501.6K over 1 year
[b]LF David Justice:[b] Minor League Contract ($300K)
[b]RF Israel Alcantara:[b] Minor League Contract ($300K)
[b]SS Mike Caruso:[b] Minor League Contract ($300K)
[b]IF-OF Jolbert Cabrera:[b] Minor League Contract ($300K)
[b]1B Ivan Cruz:[b] Minor League Contract ($300K)
[b]C Dave Ross:[b] $444.6K over 1 year

In addition, the following trade was made with the Los Angeles Dodgers:

Los Angeles receives C Wilki Gonzalez
San Diego receives MR Alfredo Gonzalez