2008 Financials Thread

[Flasch186]

I wanted to start a thread where we could all banter about the market but somewhat keep a running calendar or take on things. Perhaps people will participate or not but this could be a very volatile year and hopefully a profitable one.

Of course everyone do your own due diligence before buying or selling, anything.


Jan. 22:

What a wild day. After overnight selloffs in Asia and Europe our Fed opens us up with a .75 cut in the Fed Funds rate and a slight cut in the discount rate. We open the day off by almost 500 points and pare those losses all day before finishing off down 128 or roughly 1.06%. Bush meets with Congressional leaders and they talk about getting some sort of stimulation package to his desk within 3 weeks but the streets view these moves with skepticism. From the cut and talk the beaten up financial sector (GS, BAC, MER) moves up and the retailers try to fight through (WMT, TGT, BBBY). Tech stocks (GOOG, AAPL, CSCO, MSFT) get haircuts throughout the day. The talk [cnbc] is varied throughout the day ranging from warnings to stay on the sideline, to moderate bottom feeding, to exuberance about a capitulation signaling a bottom (references to the VIX volatility ratings spike).

After hours Apple (AAPL) reports profits that ring true (somewhat) but paint a darker outlook going forward. The stock sells off after hours taking other horseman stocks with it, Google (GOOG), Rimm (RIMM), Microsoft (MSFT).

Tomorrow looks to be a rough day but many people will be calling technical bottoms and trying to create a bottom. Hopefully one of these rings true as a bottom and we can see some build, otherwise we could see more losses ahead. Anyone looking to short the market could look at some ETF's that do so like these listed here:

http://tradermike.net/2007/03/list_o...rt_bear_etfs_/

BTW I own 100 shares of SDS and 100 shares of CSCO as of today.

[NoSkillz]

Great idea for a thread! There haven't been an awful lot of posts made on this site regarding the market or finances so I wondered if I was the only stock enthusiast here.

I had to deal with the market crashing yesterday while the American markets were closed for Martin Luther King Day. That's because the majority of my money is in the Canadian market.

The TSX was down over 600 points yesterday, close to 5% and I personally lost over 7% in my portfolio, which is heavily weighted in mining, materials and tech. My bad days are almost always worse than the index but my good days are always better than the TSX. I have some pretty volatile holdings but I'm comfortable with the daily ups and downs that it brings me.

I've always felt that as long as you have your money in good, profitable companies, you'll do fine in the end. However, you have to always keep your ears and eyes open and I do hours of research every week on my personal holdings and other targets.

Thankfully, with the US lowering rates by 3/4 of a point and Canada lowering theirs by 1/4 point, the TSX was able to bounce back in style today. The index was up over 500 points today and my own portfolio was up around 6.5% on the day so I'm almost back to where I ended last week.

Today was a great day

I own a couple of stocks that also trade in the US and if we ever discuss specifics about which equities each of us own, I'd be happy to share what I own and why.

[Flasch186]

please do reference stocks and such but I would be careful to infer that someone should buy or sell it but please do reference as it will help paint a fuller picture for those who are just touching this stuff for the first time.

[st.cronin]

I don't own any individual stocks anymore. I am in a few funds, a couple that are straight bond funds, and a couple that are more diversified.

I think even after the correction to the tech bubble in 01 that stocks are in general a little bit overpriced in terms of p/e ratio.

[DaddyTorgo]

Legendary Funds Manager Julian Robertson Predicts Utter Global Collapse Stemming From Bursting of Property Bubble

In a recent interview on CNBC with Ron Insana, one of the "old-timer" funds manager, Julian Robertson, predicted "utter global collapse" as a consequence of the bursting of the world-wide property bubble.

Often called "Never Been Wrong Robertson", the former head of Tiger Management (once the largest hedge fund in the world), is extremely worried about the speculative bubble in real estate.

Specifically, he is very worried about a world that is sustained by American consumer spending which is in turn 1/4 sustained by a property bubble. He predicts that 20 million people could lose their homes once the property bubble bursts.

Even more worrisome, he thinks central banks around the globe out of desperation will try to re-inflate the world economy with more liquidity that will create an inflationary spiral unseen in the economic history of mankind. "Where does it end?” Insana asked Robertson. "Utter global collapse," he answered. But not just economic collapse ... collapse of epic proportions. Collapse and disintegration of all infrastructure, including government. Inflation will run into the double and triple digits. "Food production will fall. People will be carrying around U.S .
dollars in wheelbarrows like Germany," he said.

There will be "total collapse of public infrastructure. Total collapse of medical care systems. All public pension plans, Social Security will collapse. All corporate pension plans will collapse."

"The American consumer is effectively now supporting the rest of the planet," he continued. "Consumption rates in all other nations are falling, have fallen to the point that the tax revenues to governments, that the business and industries those nation states are providing is now a net negative number relative to total debt service and public cost, that this exists in virtually every nation state on the planet now."

And for much of this "doom", interestingly, he blames the Bush-Cheney "regime". "They have now consolidated power and money on the planet to the maximum extent possible. The planet's net liquidity (that is its net free cash flow) is now a negative number. The planet is not simply sinking into a sea of red ink; it is already sunk. The people just don't realize it yet," he said.

According to Robertson, "the Bush-Cheney regime is preparing the nation for transition from democracy into dictatorship because a dictatorship will be necessary to control, in 5 years time, food and water riots." He said "the federal government, that part of Patriot II Act, the internal exile that the government is going to have to build now huge detention compounds on federal lands, probably in the West where the land is available, to potentially house 50 million or more citizens that will be in financial ruin."

In 10 years time, whoever is left will be effectively starting again, he said. "More importantly, and I'm trying to think how we imply this or how we express this to the people, what extraordinary times we are living in and how the destruction of the planet has been engineered by the Bushonian Cabal from 1980 to 1992, and then from 2001 to present, which has effectively destroyed the economic liquidity of the planet," he said.

Robertson ended the interview by saying that he hopes he is not alive to see this. "The lucky ones are the ones who are my age now," he said.

note: I'm just posting this, not saying I agree. But it's an...interesting, slightly amusing read from a very respected (obviously) person

[st.cronin]

He sounds like a fun guy.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

He sounds like a fun guy.

that was our comment around the office when we got that from one of our clients.

[MikeVic]

As I've stated in some other thread here, I just started with financial stuff. I just have one mutual fund that's been sucking ass since a couple of weeks into ownership. Yesterday was bad, and I'm hoping it slowly reaches up to the point where it's even... I just don't trust this thing. I'd like to see some kind of gain after a few months nstead of hundreds of dollars of loss.

[Farrah Whitworth-Rahn]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

note: I'm just posting this, not saying I agree. But it's an...interesting, slightly amusing read from a very respected (obviously) person

Oh wow.

This Julian Robertson?

hxxp://http://money.cnn.com/2000/03/30/mutualfunds/q_funds_tiger/

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Farrah Whitworth-Rahn

Oh wow.

This Julian Robertson?

hxxp://http://money.cnn.com/2000/03/30/mutualfunds/q_funds_tiger/

yep. The one and only julian robertson.

not to name drop at all, but one of our clients is hmm...on a first-name basis with him I guess you'd say

[Farrah Whitworth-Rahn]

DT what do you do, if you don't mind me asking?

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Farrah Whitworth-Rahn

DT what do you do, if you don't mind me asking?

I work for a startup...well I guess we're still considered a startup...been around 2 years at this point though...3rd party marketing firm.

essentially we are the outsourced marketing+sales arm for investment managers (generally new/smaller ones). We call on institutions, consultants, public funds, etc., and introduce our clients, try to raise assets for them.

[Marc Vaughan]

Can I ask who/what you chaps use to buy shares through? ... I'm considering purchasing some more shares having jumped out of the area when I moved to America.

[Flasch186]

I use Bank Of America.

[molson]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

note: I'm just posting this, not saying I agree. But it's an...interesting, slightly amusing read from a very respected (obviously) person

Definitely an interesting read....until the part where he basically blamed the future collapse of civilization on the Bush family. It kind of sounds like he's taking a long-shot chance at immortality as the "one who saw it".

[Flasch186]

Jan. 23rd -

Looking like another wild day. Down 200+ now paring those back an hour later. Talk about volatility. The talk now is that the FED may have used all of it's bullets and washed out its credibility. Wont know until they meet next week. My advice - No need to try to pick a bottom.

[Fidatelo]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

note: I'm just posting this, not saying I agree. But it's an...interesting, slightly amusing read from a very respected (obviously) person

I understand that this man was apparently quite good at what he did once upon a time, and I am personally of the opinion that things will get pretty bad for North America sometime in the next 10-20 years if the U.S. doesn't seriously straighten out, but these are the ramblings of a madman. Detention Compounds? Just because the people can't afford their homes, doesn't mean the homes don't exist. I suspect the government might just forgive debts (even if just on a temporary basis) before they dumped 50 million people into compounds out west.

[Flasch186]

I moved off of my short position (SDS) as I think we may see a short term "Dead Cat Bounce" when the FED meets next week. I rotated into Wal-Mart (WMT) as it may be the only retailer who truly provides the lowest possible price for those consumer staples. I do not believe in this Financials rally (BAC, JPM, MER) at this time. It will come eventually but I don't want to be the first one to dip a toe in and get it lopped off.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Fidatelo

I understand that this man was apparently quite good at what he did once upon a time, and I am personally of the opinion that things will get pretty bad for North America sometime in the next 10-20 years if the U.S. doesn't seriously straighten out, but these are the ramblings of a madman. Detention Compounds? Just because the people can't afford their homes, doesn't mean the homes don't exist. I suspect the government might just forgive debts (even if just on a temporary basis) before they dumped 50 million people into compounds out west.

i agree. that was the part i found the most...hmm..."interesting" shall we say?

[Fighter of Foo]

The guy's a hedge fund manager. The stuff they write when things are going well isn't much different.

That said, there is some systemic risk of banks and other finance companies going under. No one can say how much because I don't think anyone has a clue as to the amount of shitty loans and derivative-based crap is out there that's going to get squeezed soon. It's musical chairs for billions of dollars.

[Masked]

Originally Posted by Fighter of Foo

It's musical chairs for trillions of dollars.

Fixed.

Estimates of the size of the derivatives market ranges well into the 10's of trillions of dollars.

[Fidatelo]

Oh I agree, there's a shit-storm coming, no doubt. I just think this guy is either whacked in the head or got extremely carried away in hyperbole, because there is no way 50 million Americans are going to hang out in detention camps in Montana while close to 50 million homes sit vacant due to a collapse of the financial systems.

[Butter]

I should've pulled my money temporarily from all of my stock based mutual funds when the market hit 14,000. I was so close to doing it, but I held back. Now, I just leave them in for the long haul, I guess. No use selling at the bottom.

[Flasch186]

The sell SDS move and buy WMT move seemed to play out for today but I'd like to carry WMT beyond the FED meeting next week.

[Flasch186]

Jan. 23rd 2:30pm:

What a whipsaw of a day. Open up down 200+, pare those losses back and then retest and break the lows before charging back up near 12,000 right now. Things are not for the feint of heart. Notables, Google down 50+ at one point, Apple down 25+ at one point, Bank of America up 5%, etc.

[NoSkillz]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

Jan. 23rd 2:30pm:

Things are not for the feint of heart.

You've got that right!

The market has been in the toilet all day in Canada, with the TSX index off over 220 points at the moment (-1.74%).

Tech, mining and minerals are getting throttled so my portfolio is suffering quite substantially.

I own some Research in Motion stock (RIM - TSX) and a couple of fertilizer stocks (POT - TSX & AGU - TSX)...all three are getting destroyed today after making significant comebacks yesterday. Volatile doesn't even begin to describe it!

All three are solid, profitable companies with good stories and I'm not worried long-term about their viability. So they are turning into long-term holds from the looks of things.

[Flasch186]

Originally Posted by NoSkillz

You've got that right!

The market has been in the toilet all day in Canada, with the TSX index off over 220 points at the moment (-1.74%).

Tech, mining and minerals are getting throttled so my portfolio is suffering quite substantially.

I own some Research in Motion stock (RIM - TSX) and a couple of fertilizer stocks (POT - TSX & AGU - TSX)...all three are getting destroyed today after making significant comebacks yesterday. Volatile doesn't even begin to describe it!

All three are solid, profitable companies with good stories and I'm not worried long-term about their viability. So they are turning into long-term holds from the looks of things.

some would argue that the tech names and ag. names are largely momentum plays and that may be turning over or rotating.

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by Marc Vaughan

Can I ask who/what you chaps use to buy shares through? ... I'm considering purchasing some more shares having jumped out of the area when I moved to America.

I have an etrade account.

[Young Drachma]

Yeesh, the little ditty I use to monitor stocks is sure taking a tumble. Looks like I need to go throw and drop some stuff to stop the bleeding.

[Flasch186]

4:00 pm

today ends up being the best day for the S&P and markets for '08. An unbelievable swing of over 450 points throughout the day hinged on rumors of a bailout for Bond insurers, rumors of foreign lowering of rates, and some technical talk of a building bottom. Bears would argue "Sell the rally" Bulls would say that we are creating the bottom and can run from here. Regardless we should see more volatility leading right on through the FED meeting next week. Expectations are for a .50 drop but their is a "nothing will make us happy" mentality coming out of the markets. .50 and the FED cowed to the markets showing no leadership in the move, less than .50 and the markets will scream that the FED doesnt understand what is going on. I'm looking for drops along the way and in general restlessness. Huge Jobless claims number coming out tomorrow. Many say the only TRUE way a recession occurs is if Jobs fall off (unemployment rises). This number tomorrow, on the heels of this gaining day could be foreshadowing of a monster sell off tomorrow.

[Warhammer]

Holy crap... If we lower the rate again, isn't inflation going to go through the roof? Aren't we exacerbating the situation since the whole reason why we are in this mess is due to the amount of dollars in the system and how easy it is to get them?

That said, I think Julian Robertson is right in his gloom and doom outlook, but I disagree with his swipe at conservative politics in the last 30 years.

[johnnyshaka]

Originally Posted by NoSkillz

You've got that right!

The market has been in the toilet all day in Canada, with the TSX index off over 220 points at the moment (-1.74%).

Tech, mining and minerals are getting throttled so my portfolio is suffering quite substantially.

I own some Research in Motion stock (RIM - TSX) and a couple of fertilizer stocks (POT - TSX & AGU - TSX)...all three are getting destroyed today after making significant comebacks yesterday. Volatile doesn't even begin to describe it!

All three are solid, profitable companies with good stories and I'm not worried long-term about their viability. So they are turning into long-term holds from the looks of things.

Funny, a friend of mine who owns some Research in Motion was kicking himself last night for not buying some more yesterday morning.

[Fighter of Foo]

Originally Posted by Warhammer

Holy crap... If we lower the rate again, isn't inflation going to go through the roof? Aren't we exacerbating the situation since the whole reason why we are in this mess is due to the amount of dollars in the system and how easy it is to get them?

"First, a US hard landing will lead to a reduction in aggregate demand relative to the aggregate supply as a glut of housing, consumer durables, autos and, soon enough, other goods and service takes places. Such reduction in aggregate demand tends to reduce inflationary pressures as firms lose pricing power and then to cut prices to stave off the fall in demand and the rising stock of inventories of unsold goods. These deflationary pressures are already clear in housing where prices as falling and in the auto sector where the glut of automobiles is leading to price discounts and other price incentives. Obviously, inflation tends to fall in recession led by a fall in aggregate demand.

Second, during US recessions you observe a significant slack in labor markets: job losses and the rise in the unemployment rate lead to a slowdown in nominal wage growth that reduces labor costs and unit labor cost, thus reducing wage and price inflationary pressures in the economy."



The whole thing is here:

http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/238726/

[Flasch186]

random thought:

I wonder if now isn't the time to buy the XLF (Exchange traded fund for the "financials"). We may see some volatility but with lowered rates and gov't. help we may be seeing the first inklings of the leadership group that will lead us out of this. We may very well have more downside in front of us but I dont think that there is a doubt that this will be the group that turns North on the early pages of the next chapter.

thoughts?

[Warhammer]

Originally Posted by Fighter of Foo

"First, a US hard landing will lead to a reduction in aggregate demand relative to the aggregate supply as a glut of housing, consumer durables, autos and, soon enough, other goods and service takes places. Such reduction in aggregate demand tends to reduce inflationary pressures as firms lose pricing power and then to cut prices to stave off the fall in demand and the rising stock of inventories of unsold goods. These deflationary pressures are already clear in housing where prices as falling and in the auto sector where the glut of automobiles is leading to price discounts and other price incentives. Obviously, inflation tends to fall in recession led by a fall in aggregate demand.

Second, during US recessions you observe a significant slack in labor markets: job losses and the rise in the unemployment rate lead to a slowdown in nominal wage growth that reduces labor costs and unit labor cost, thus reducing wage and price inflationary pressures in the economy."



The whole thing is here:

http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/238726/

The problem with the scenario though is that if the housing market really tanks and values go way down, the banking sector is going to be hit really hard. All those mortgages that people have will be on houses that lost value. So you will have mounds of debt. Who absorbs that? I think the other problem that we have is that the US Dollar is weak right now. We print more money, we drive that value even lower. That weakens our ability to buy goods even more.

[Flasch186]

Jan 24


The early morning sees the Jobless Claims number and it rings out DOWN to 301,000. The Bulls argue that this forecasts that we will NOT hit a recession and site Jobless numbers during past recessions at being around 50,000 higher than that which we're seeing. Bears will argue that this means the FED will NOT cut next week, or at least not to where they want.

I'm not sure what this means as we have a housing number later today that people want to put some weight into.

Some weird news came out that a Rogue trader cost a French bank $7 billion in losses. The more important problem and how it effects us is that they unraveled their positions on Friday perhaps exacerbating the days losses in europe possibly "duping" our FED into it's emergency cut Monday. We'll see how tis all gets interpreted over the next few hours.

I still hold WMT (Wal-Mart) and CSCO (Cisco) and was thinking about getting into the XLF (financials ETF) but Ive always been back and forth into and out of Sirius Satellite radio (SIRI - a merger play that has not worked out for me over the past 8 months) and also take peeks at Wells Fargo (WFC).

[Fighter of Foo]

Originally Posted by Warhammer

The problem with the scenario though is that if the housing market really tanks and values go way down, the banking sector is going to be hit really hard. All those mortgages that people have will be on houses that lost value. So you will have mounds of debt. Who absorbs that? I think the other problem that we have is that the US Dollar is weak right now. We print more money, we drive that value even lower. That weakens our ability to buy goods even more.

Every other country in the world will prop up the dollar because if they don't, and Americans can't afford to buy any imports, the rest of the world is completely and totally screwed. Commodity prices are already dropping and will continue to do so, and excess supply will force prices down as well. (See oil here) In a few years there will probably be more of a threat of deflation rather than inflation. There was a very brief deflationary scare here in 2001. If you get caught in one of these cycles, it's exceptionally difficult to get out. See Japan in the 90s for the case study.

[Flasch186]

2:45pm

The resale housing numbers came out this morning and were an utter bebacle. A nationwide price drop for the first time in recent memories. The Bulls will argue that the key number is that the inventory has dropped quite a bit and we tick under 10months supply for the first time in a long time. The Bears will argue that this is just more signs of pain to come as people's wallets continue to tighten up.

Regarding wallets tightening, it seems the Government may actually accomplish getting a stimulus package out. Of it, it seems Americans will get somewhere between 600 - 2000 depending on their circumstances. 2 key things:

1. Even people who make lowered incomes and dont pay taxes will receive monies 9theyre more likely to spend it)

2. FHA limits are being raised dramatically thus loosening the monies surrounding mortgages.

Both of these would spell somewhat of an end in sight, maybe way own the line, but in sight.

I stand by my take that the rebate helps Wal-Mart (WMT) out quite a bit and almost see a huge portion of it ending up there. My Financial Sector Spider (4% yield) stays flat for today but I see this as a built bottomf for the financials and see that almost every improvement going forward, either from government, bailout, mortgage loosening, etc. will help them out. Cisco remains my longest holding since last summer.

The Tech sector sure does look cheap for a long term player. Apple? Intel? Dell even....Not sure when to dip the toe in but you cant help but look at their prices today and think "wow."

Microsoft reports earnings and outlook after the bell....this will move markets BIG.

[st.cronin]

Flasch, if you're looking for a long term play ... look around for some companies in the Veterinary medicine field. I think we are nowhere close to reaching the limit on what people will spend on their pets medical care. 5 years ago there was 1 emergency pet clinic in Madison, WI, today there are 6.

My girlfriend works in the field, I'll give you her insider's view on whatever company you want to take a look at.

[Flasch186]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Flasch, if you're looking for a long term play ... look around for some companies in the Veterinary medicine field. I think we are nowhere close to reaching the limit on what people will spend on their pets medical care. 5 years ago there was 1 emergency pet clinic in Madison, WI, today there are 6.

My girlfriend works in the field, I'll give you her insider's view on whatever company you want to take a look at.

thanks! Im not sure where Im going to be putting money but I only have 6 month time horizons.

[Fidatelo]

In the same vein, I've heard that Pet Insurance is a growing field, which would make sense to cover the costs of all these vet bills.

[NoSkillz]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

some would argue that the tech names and ag. names are largely momentum plays and that may be turning over or rotating.

I agree on this to a point actually...

I'm a pretty active trader at the moment, as I continue to try to build my portfolio. A lot of my recent moves have been meant for short-term gains in order to build up my trade count with Waterhouse.

There is method to my madness, as I get much lower commission rates and a lot of perks when I get 'active trader' status with the company, including state of the art trading software at no charge and other goodies.

I've studied the movement of stocks like Potash, Agrium and Research in Motion for quite a long time now and really intend just to get small gains and get out. The recent downturn has meant me sticking with the stocks for a little longer than usual but all three companies, while trading at premium P/E ratios, are great companies with excellent earnings and growth.

So, while I'd rather continue to get in and out of these stocks quickly to build up my trade count, I am not worried whatsoever about sticking with them for a bit longer.

[johnnyshaka]

Originally Posted by Fidatelo

In the same vein, I've heard that Pet Insurance is a growing field, which would make sense to cover the costs of all these vet bills.

No doubt...I can see the headlines now...child dies of malnutrition and the welfare mother blames the system for not giving her enough money to provide the basic essentials for her and her child. Of note, mom was up to date on her pet insurance for her 5 cats and 2 dogs and they are healthier than ever.

[Flasch186]

Afterhours

Microsoft (MSFT) crushed their earnings but more importantly they guide higher going forward. This forecasts an up day tomorrow BUT if it's a Bear market you would be one to sell this rally. Any Bull would be trying to get in arguing that things aren't as bad they seem going forward and now you need to be in.

Is this a rally that one can get into for awhile, or simply a dead cat bouncing?

[Flasch186]

I have to travel to Detroit tomorrow and wont be able to do an end of day recap so if someone else would like to do one that would be great as I'd love to keep this thread going for at least '08 to see if we can all help eachother through discussion and debate in wading through this morass we're staring at.

thanks in advance.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Fidatelo

In the same vein, I've heard that Pet Insurance is a growing field, which would make sense to cover the costs of all these vet bills.

I'm actually thinking about getting that for Norm aka The Sweetest Boy In The Whole Wide World (TM). I'm amazed at how much vet bills can run, and IIRC insurance is somewhere around $100/yr. That would be well worth it for the peace of mind.

[miked]

Beware! Many vets don't take insurance, you have to pay out of pocket and try to get re-imbursed. It's not very well regulated and they have lots of fine print.

[path12]

Originally Posted by miked

Beware! Many vets don't take insurance, you have to pay out of pocket and try to get re-imbursed. It's not very well regulated and they have lots of fine print.

Thanks for the heads up. I will research carefully before jumping into it.

[Flasch186]

I had a heart to heart w/ the vet when talking about my bulldog's joints and he said that with pure breeds they pretty much envelop everything under breed specific and dont cover it (common to the breed). He suggested not to get it.

[Flasch186]

January 25


The end of a wild week and now we spend the day worrying about the same things we were at the beginning of the week. Was the FED duped into the .75 cut by the "rogue" trader in France? Are we in or headed towards a recession? Will the rebates work?

The last few hours of the day will be important tot his short rally. Are people going to sell it? Will it show some legs?

The talk for next week is the scheduled FED meeting....will they still cut the .50 the markets want?