Blu-ray/HD-DVD format war discussion thread.......

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

A German website is reporting that Universal will drop its exclusive deal with Toshiba, which leaves no studios exclusively publishing on the HD-DVD format. This may be the final blow to Toshiba's HD media alternative.

http://www.blu-ray.com/news/?id=180

[stevew]

When did HD-DVD mean microsoft? I mean they are part of the consortium, but not the only party. Toshiba is the main dumbasses that are getting railed on the format.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by stevew

When did HD-DVD mean microsoft? I mean they are part of the consortium, but not the only party. Toshiba is the main dumbasses that are getting railed on the format.

Yes, you are correct. MS is the one most identified with the format because of the 360, but you're correct that Toshiba is the official HD-DVD creator.

[MizzouRah]

You love busting the 360's balls don't you?

Talk about the great games on the ps3 will ya?

[spleen1015]

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by MizzouRah

You love busting the 360's balls don't you?

Talk about the great games on the ps3 will ya?

I think it's a significant development, don't you? This final move is very important for Sony's bottom line as they're likely to become the sole HD media format at this point. This is what Sony wanted to accomplish when it hatched the idea of putting a Blu-ray player in the PS3. They literally put all their eggs in one basket. If they would have lost this format war, they would have been in a heap of trouble.

Now that they have likely won the HD format war, the PS3 now becomes a great value. This Christmas, you can get a Blu-ray player for $300 or you can pick up a PS3 and have a gaming console as well for $300 more. Toss in price cuts that are likely next year and it becomes even a better value.

The next question is whether Microsoft will relent and create Blu-ray add-on drives for the 360. Not sure it would look that good for them to basically abandon the HD-DVD add-on owners and create another drive that people will have to pay another $200 to buy. It will be an interesting situation to watch.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

the PS3 now becomes a great value

I just choked on my coffee.

[MizzouRah]

I still could care less about HD-DVD and or Blue Ray. To me, it's all about the games and the 360 is so far ahead it's not even funny.

We'll have to revisit this later on to see the real implications.

[MJ4H]

Toshiba should decapitate a goat.

[Logan]

Funny, about two weeks ago I read something that claimed it spelled the end for Blu-ray.

[Greyroofoo]

Microsoft wins either way because they partly own the compression algorithm Blu-Ray and HD-DVD uses.

[Mustang]

I just don't get what I might be missing. VHS to DVD, that was a huge leap. More stuff, didn't have to rewind, great picture but, with HD-DVD and Blu-ray.. eh.. I just don't see a need to run out to buy one.

[Travis]

Either way, this is a race that will have big implications inside of what, 2-3 years when every tv has to be HD ready/compatible. The whole PS3 race aside, no matter what the drive behind it, the winner of the HD format war is going to make a mark, and because MS backed HD-DVD, it will also affect the new consoles. Sure, PS3 doesn't have the library that the 360 does, but by Christmas, it's title list will be much more attractive to new customer's than it is right now. Not many people (granted some will of course) are going to care that much about any of the titles on the market now, it'll be what is out between late summer and Christmas that will dominate, so it'll depend which console is smarter with their prices by then. If the PS3 brings out an advanced unit (bigger HD, whatever) at the current top end price and drops the 60gig model $100-$150 (or even does this without a new top end model on the market) they'll be competitive. Add in build in blu ray and it is a factor if they can also win this (HD-DVD/Blu Ray) race.

Certainly not out of the woods, but given the ineptness of how they've handled things to now from a PS3 perspective, the fact that a couple right decisions at this point could get them back in the race isn't something to be discounted.

[Greyroofoo]

The picture quality alone is enough for me.

Much much bigger leap than it was between VHS and DVD.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by MizzouRah

I still could care less about HD-DVD and or Blue Ray. To me, it's all about the games and the 360 is so far ahead it's not even funny.

We'll have to revisit this later on to see the real implications.

Absolutely. If you solely want a game console, the 360 is the better option at this point, assuming you purchase the Premium system. The Elite is a bit pricey for what you're getting.

[Travis]

Originally Posted by Mustang

I just don't get what I might be missing. VHS to DVD, that was a huge leap. More stuff, didn't have to rewind, great picture but, with HD-DVD and Blu-ray.. eh.. I just don't see a need to run out to buy one.

Not necessarily on the subject of video games, but watching sports on hd compared to standard def is an amazing difference. I've got a couple movies on Blu Ray (Resident Evil 2 coming to mind) where the difference from standard DVD to BR as far as colors/definition/clarity is equally as great.

Game wise, it's harder for me to compare as I went from a game cube on an old 52" projection TV with a lot of blue bleed to a PS3 on a new 37" HD LCD, so yeah, it looks fantastic, but not an apples to apples to comparison at all.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Mustang

I just don't get what I might be missing. VHS to DVD, that was a huge leap. More stuff, didn't have to rewind, great picture but, with HD-DVD and Blu-ray.. eh.. I just don't see a need to run out to buy one.

If you've every watched a movie on HD media, there's a big difference in quality. Granted, some people don't watch movies often enough to make it worth it. If you spend time at home watching movies, it's a must. The quality of the picture is a big step up.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Logan

Funny, about two weeks ago I read something that claimed it spelled the end for Blu-ray.

Interesting. I have no idea why that would be the case. Do you have a link to the article?

[Mustang]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

If you've every watched a movie on HD media, there's a big difference in quality. Granted, some people don't watch movies often enough to make it worth it. If you spend time at home watching movies, it's a must. The quality of the picture is a big step up.

I'll have to try to watch a movie then in HD. The only thing I've ever seen are 'samples' at Electronics stores that just blantantly distorted DVD to pump up HD-DVD & Blu-Ray quality to the point of being comical. Here is DVD (show picture that looks like it was shot through a shower door) and new HD-DVD!!!! (show clear picture) So, left more of a 'ya.. whatever' feeling with me.

I do have HD TV though so, not disputing that quality.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Now that they have likely won the HD format war, the PS3 now becomes a great value.

I fail to see this logic. Most people don't want a blu-ray player right now. Even if HD-DVD were discontinued tomorrow, that fact wouldn't change. The market hasn't shown that its ready to support either. DVD is going to continue to dwarf the sales of both of these formats combined for the forseeable future.

This is a small win for Sony. Not necessarily a win for the PS3.

[Butter]

Mods, can we change this thread title to "April Console Sales Numbers", kthx.

[spleen1015]

The PS3 will catch the 360 if/when it has games that will sell the system.

Blu-ray isn't going to help. If it was, it would have already.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Atocep

I fail to see this logic. Most people don't want a blu-ray player right now. Even if HD-DVD were discontinued tomorrow, that fact wouldn't change. The market hasn't shown that its ready to support either. DVD is going to continue to dwarf the sales of both of these formats combined for the forseeable future.

This is a small win for Sony. Not necessarily a win for the PS3.

Agreed. At this point, it's not a big shift in the market. 2008 and 2009 will be the years where the big change will likely occur. There's going to be a big push of HDTV's next year as the 2009 conversion date to all digital gets closer. HDTV's and associated media are going to be pushed really hard this holiday and in the 2008 holiday season and you can be sure that the big box places like Best Buy will have their sales people fully stocked with all of the usual sales pitches.

Also, you're likely to see the PS3 at a $499 or lower price point in 2008 and stand-alone Blu-ray players in the sub-200 range. That's when you're going to see a bigger adoption rate and where Sony's gamble could pay big dividends.

[Tyrith]

DVD to HD and VHS to DVD are not really comparable situations, and everyone should stop acting like they are. VHS had serious technical issues that made everyone want to upgrade to a much more user friendly disc based system with significant alacrity. There's no such incentive with HD. Further, you didn't have to buy a new TV to make your new DVD player work, unless your TV was 10-15 years old and you needed to upgrade into the world of AV cables. Overall, HD is much more of a "luxury" upgrade than going to DVD.

Now, the PS3 is going to get some extra sales because it is a next gen DVD player. However, the timing is all wrong for it to use that capacity to boost it into the PS2 sales range. When it came out the PS2 was timed perfectly and priced perfectly to take advantage of the market -- people really wanted to upgrade away from VHS, it came out at a price point people were used to paying for video game systems and not a crazy 500+ number, and the PS2 didn't have any real competition in the gaming market; at the time Sony was the champ and it didn't look like anyone was going to be able to fight them anytime soon. The PS3 is in a completely different situation, where it is having to fight for every inch of market share, and being the option with fewer games and a higher price point it's going to have a hard time ripping users away from the XBox right now.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

Blu-ray isn't going to help. If it was, it would have already.

Sorry, but that's REALLY a short-sighted statement. Sony knew that the dividends for their gamble wouldn't pay off for 2-3 years as far as Blu-ray goes. Until the media gets at a price point where it becomes accessable to the general public, you can't really declare that at all. 6 months into the media's life cycle is not a good place to do that. DVD's were selling at an even slower rate at this point in the life cycle. Once the prices for the players came down to an acceptable level (due to cost efficiencies in manufacturing) after a year or two, they sold like hotcakes.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Interesting. I have no idea why that would be the case. Do you have a link to the article?

It was something like a store deciding to go with HD over BR...more of the bullshit that's being spewed in this rumor.

As Atocep said, this isn't a simple one versus the other "war." Neither wins until they can go up against SD DVDs, and that is a long, long way from happening. It's not a VHS vs DVD debate; it's DVDs of excellent quality, of which people already own multiple players and a large catalog of their favorite movies, going up against DVDs of a greater excellent quality, that require very expensive new players and upgrading their collections.

That's why HD will not simply go away because a studio has dropped its HD exclusivity. It has great enough penetration already to survive, especially if they can be the ones to come to market with more affordable players first (and obviously they're much closer than BR is now).

When BR came out and it wasn't doing hot, it was "just wait until the PS3 launches...that will end the war." It didn't. The PS3 isn't going to be the deciding factor in this. A typical family is not thinking about whatever "excellent value" the PS3 might be when deciding if they want to spend $1000 on upgrading their DVD collection, which is already of high quality.

[spleen1015]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Sorry, but that's REALLY a short-sighted statement. Sony knew that the dividends for their gamble wouldn't pay off for 2-3 years as far as Blu-ray goes. Until the media gets at a price point where it becomes accessable to the general public, you can't really declare that at all. 6 months into the media's life cycle is not a good place to do that. DVD's were selling at an even slower rate at this point in the life cycle. Once the prices for the players came down to an acceptable level (due to cost efficiencies in manufacturing) after a year or two, they sold like hotcakes.

It will pay off 2-3 years down the road because that's when they will have it priced reasonably and have some games that are worth playing.

[Travis]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

Further, you didn't have to buy a new TV to make your new DVD player work, unless your TV was 10-15 years old and you needed to upgrade into the world of AV cables. Overall, HD is much more of a "luxury" upgrade than going to DVD.

But, and this is where I think it was a move made ahead of time, anybody who wants to watch TV past 2010 (or 2009, whenever the US switchover is), will have to buy a TV that has the capability to take advantage of this technology. Yes, DVD upscalers will also be all over and DVD's are not going to die, but the forced switch to HDTV is going to happen. Give them an option of buying a DVD player for $80 or a BR player with DVD upscaling for $200 and the market will begin to shift. Especially if the price of BR movies themselves start hitting the $20-$25 mark (my numbers could be out a bit as I'm used to Canadian pricing).

Again, not a deal clincher for the PS3 by any means if BR is declared the winner today, and maybe they tried to make their move a bit too early (I personally don't think so), but attempting to corner the HD market with a forced switch on the horizon is probably one of the few smart things they've done in the past year or so.

[moriarty]

Originally Posted by Greyroofoo

The picture quality alone is enough for me.

Much much bigger leap than it was between VHS and DVD.

Wow, you're entitled to your own perceptions but based on my own experiences this isn't even close. VHS to DVD was a huge leap.

There's been several 'blind' tests where users had a hard time distinguishing between an upconverting DVD player and a HD DVD (this may get better as HD DVD players mature). I doubt anyone had problems distinguishing between VHS and DVD.

[Pyser]

Originally Posted by Travis

Either way, this is a race that will have big implications inside of what, 2-3 years when every tv has to be HD ready/compatible.

Just wanted to point out cable is going all DIGITAL by 2008/2009. there is no mandate for anyone to switch to hd ever at this point.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by Greyroofoo

The picture quality alone is enough for me.

Much much bigger leap than it was between VHS and DVD.

IT'S OPPOSITE DAY!!!111!!1!11

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Logan

As Atocep said, this isn't a simple one versus the other "war." Neither wins until they can go up against SD DVDs, and that is a long, long way from happening. It's not a VHS vs DVD debate; it's DVDs of excellent quality, of which people already own multiple players and a large catalog of their favorite movies, going up against DVDs of a greater excellent quality, that require very expensive new players and upgrading their collections.

At this point, I'd certainly agree with that. This is something that won't fully create any type of major market forces for another 1-2 years.

Originally Posted by Logan

That's why HD will not simply go away because a studio has dropped its HD exclusivity. It has great enough penetration already to survive, especially if they can be the ones to come to market with more affordable players first (and obviously they're much closer than BR is now).

Both players are going to have stand-along players in the sub-$300 price range by the holiday season. Also, given that all of the major movies will be on Blu-ray and only a portion of them will be on HD-DVD, I'd be hard pressed as a consumer to say that I'm better off buying a HD-DVD if I'm forced to choose.

Originally Posted by Logan

When BR came out and it wasn't doing hot, it was "just wait until the PS3 launches...that will end the war." It didn't.

Really? While the overall sales numbers are relatively small when compared to the DVD sales, it has been noted in multiple articles that the Blu-ray Disks are outselling HD-DVD's at a minimum of a 2:1 margin at this point. Before the PS3 release, Blu-ray was getting beat pretty soundly by the HD-DVD format. I'm not sure how you could attribute that to anything other than the PS3.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Really? While the overall sales numbers are relatively small when compared to the DVD sales, it has been noted in multiple articles that the Blu-ray Disks are outselling HD-DVD's at a minimum of a 2:1 margin at this point. Before the PS3 release, Blu-ray was getting beat pretty soundly by the HD-DVD format. I'm not sure how you could attribute that to anything other than the PS3.

That's what I meant when I said "end" the war. Winning at this point doesn't mean it's going to conquer the regular DVD format.

[spleen1015]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Really? While the overall sales numbers are relatively small when compared to the DVD sales, it has been noted in multiple articles that the Blu-ray Disks are outselling HD-DVD's at a minimum of a 2:1 margin at this point. Before the PS3 release, Blu-ray was getting beat pretty soundly by the HD-DVD format. I'm not sure how you could attribute that to anything other than the PS3.

This can't be your lovefest for the PS3 talking.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Logan

That's what I meant when I said "end" the war. Winning at this point doesn't mean it's going to conquer the regular DVD format.

Yes, but it's not an 'either/or' situation. You don't have to buy the new HD disk. HD media players are somewhat like a console in that they are backward compatible and even 'upconvert' the picture. There is a significant increase in appearance of the DVD disks when you upconvert the picture. So you can keep your old collection of DVD's while buying the newer movies in the HD format.

Now I will grant you that there's no reason to go out and buy a HD player right now for $600 or more. It's simply too much. But later in the year and early next year as the prices fall to the $200-300 range, it becomes a much better value with no reason to rebuy your entire collection. This is an advantage that you didn't have with the VHS/DVD situation because you couldn't play your old tapes in the new player unless you had a VHS/DVD combo player.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

This can't be your lovefest for the PS3 talking.

What would you attribute that large turnaround in sales to?

[stevew]

If the wholesale tv prices continue to head down at the same rate, by next spring a 50" projection will comfortably be under a grand, and a 32" LCD will probably be 6-700(for a top name one) at the very most

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by stevew

If the wholesale tv prices continue to head down at the same rate, by next spring a 50" projection will comfortably be under a grand, and a 32" LCD will probably be 6-700(for a top name one) at the very most

Even HD front projectors are becoming a very affordable option where you can have a monster picture at a reasonable price. I bought a 720p/1080i projector last month for under $800. By the holiday season, it will likely be in the $600-700 range. If you have a big enough room, it's a great deal.

[spleen1015]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

What would you attribute that large turnaround in sales to?

The format being on the market longer? Better movies coming out in the format?

[stevew]

Eh, for those, man, the Bulb costs are so expensive that unless you're a baller it's a significant chunk of change every 2000 hours.

[Deattribution]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

The format being on the market longer? Better movies coming out in the format?

The greatest movies in the world released on the format do not mean anything unless you have a player to play the movies on - and right now the PS3 is the smartest choice for a blu-ray player.

Saying the PS3 had little or no impact on the sales of blu-ray disc is ridiculous, No matter what anyone thinks of Sony - this was apart of their plan, and even if it's not working on the grand scheme they thought it would the ball is still moving.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Pyser

Just wanted to point out cable is going all DIGITAL by 2008/2009. there is no mandate for anyone to switch to hd ever at this point.

Yep, I wanted to point this out as well... digital doesn't mean HD ready or compatible or anything. Just that the signal has to be in digital format.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Deattribution

The greatest movies in the world released on the format do not mean anything unless you have a player to play the movies on - and right now the PS3 is the smartest choice for a blu-ray player.

Saying the PS3 had little or no impact on the sales of blu-ray disc is ridiculous, No matter what anyone thinks of Sony - this was apart of their plan, and even if it's not working on the grand scheme they thought it would the ball is still moving.

Agreed. The only movies that weren't on Blu-ray were the Universal Studios movies. All of the rest of the movies have been on Blu-ray both before and after the PS3 came out. If the quality of the movies was an issue, HD-DVD should have seen a similar spike in sales when the newer ones came out. That has not happened. In fact, the HD-DVD sales rates have actually gone down.

[moriarty]

Originally Posted by Deattribution

The greatest movies in the world released on the format do not mean anything unless you have a player to play the movies on - and right now the PS3 is the smartest choice for a blu-ray player.

Saying the PS3 had little or no impact on the sales of blu-ray disc is ridiculous, No matter what anyone thinks of Sony - this was apart of their plan, and even if it's not working on the grand scheme they thought it would the ball is still moving.

I would say the PS3 has definitely had an impact on penetration of blue ray DVD players. I'm not sure enough PS3 owners are actively buying the discs to say it has had a major impact on disc sales. I think both formats have struggled selling discs.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by moriarty

I would say the PS3 has definitely had an impact on penetration of blue ray DVD players. I'm not sure enough PS3 owners are actively buying the discs to say it has had a major impact on disc sales. I think both formats have struggled selling discs.

Yes, but penetration of the players has to be your primary focus as a company. Without players, no one is going to buy the discs. Eventually, as with any other product, the larger your installed base is, the more discs you sell.

[Travis]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Yep, I wanted to point this out as well... digital doesn't mean HD ready or compatible or anything. Just that the signal has to be in digital format.

My bad, I had thought from articles I had read that you'd have to have at least HD ready tv's at that point. Not something I've dug too far into as I already have HD, good to point out for sure.

I am curious to see over the next 2-3 years what the percentage of HD compatible TV's to non HD units sold will be. Even without a forced turnover, I can't imagine that a lot of first or second tv's (living room/bedroom) in homes won't be HD ready (guessing the smaller kitchen type tv's will be the last to see a significant changeover, though even prices there appear to be getting better). Still a rapidly expanding market that should only accelerate.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Yes, but penetration of the players has to be your primary focus as a company. Without players, no one is going to buy the discs. Eventually, as with any other product, the larger your installed base is, the more discs you sell.

Sounds like a good strategy for the 360 and the wii.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by KWhit

Sounds like a good strategy for the 360 and the wii.

It's a good strategy for any product. Business 101.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

It's a good strategy for any product. Business 101.

Thanks for the lesson.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by KWhit

Thanks for the lesson.

I guess I'm not sure why you even mentioned the Wii. It has no relevance to the HD format war.