12-29-2006, 09:15 AM | #1 | ||
lolzcat
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(POL) - Can an anti-poverty candidate win?
I tagged this as "political" but I'm hoping that it doesn't degenerate into the usual hyper-partisan mud-slinging horseshit that most POL threads here do. We'll see...
So, obviously my thoughts here are spurred by John Edwards making his announcement of a presidential run, as he has made an anti-poverty plank a pretty central part of his campaign, at least so far. I have to wonder whether this sort of approach has any shot to resonate with voters. Personally, I'm not exactly sold on John Edwards, but I do think that he is pretty charismatic, and probably presents a fairly attracive candidate for the Democratic party in many ways. Independent of my thoughts on the matter, I think his "two Americas" pitch getting at economic populism is about as effective as anyone's in the party... and I think that this kind of message has a real shot to work for the party nomination, if not in a general election. I also happen to think that Edwards' decision to incorporate an element of "the government can't do it all, the people have to do it" is a strong idea. I don't know how he will marry that message with the other things he is talking about, but I think he has a good core idea there for a coming campaign. With that background -- he is prominently talking about setting a goal to reduce US poverty by a third in 10 years, and to seek to essentially do away with poverty in this country in 30 years. I don't know if he is talking much about specifics, and what sort of programs he proposes to accomplish these goals, but my central question is basically this: is that goal really going to ring true with enough voters? Traditionally, at least recently, the traditional Democrat approach has been to pit the "middle class" against the "fat cats" in some fahsion or another -- sensingf that quite a lot of people consider themselves part of that middle class. Usually, it's at its peak effectiveness when they talk about "working families" and the like... people who "work hard and play by the rules" to recall a phrase turned a few times by our last Democratic president. That's who we have the most support for, overall. Poverty is another issue, it seems. It gets into a far more complex set of circumstances with oportunity, effort, race and culture. And it seems to me there are plenty of people who just don't really connect with a family from a place totally unlike theirs, who face life challenges totally unlike theirs. Most everyone has a family member who seems to work hard but can't get ahead. Not everyone has a family member who actually has hungry children. So... is there a potential political vein to be tapped here? Whether Edwards has it right isn't the core question, but if this takes the shape of how he ought to pursue his campaign to maximize its effectiveness migth make sense, as a practical example. |
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12-29-2006, 09:24 AM | #2 |
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I don't think any single plank or position can win an election for a candidate, but it sure can lose an election for a candidate. That being said, this appears to be a good position to build a platform around. The key will be getting his message of "the government can't do it all, the people have to do it" out early and often, otherwise he will be painted as wanting to massively expand the welfare state.
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12-29-2006, 09:27 AM | #3 |
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My belief is that in a 'rugged invidualism' base as is in many parts of the US, an anti-poverty campaign won't resonate. There are too many people who think that poverty is in someway the fault of the poor and therefore why should they be the ones to help? I don't think many voters are really going to go for the poverty pitch, instead wondering well, what will you do for us?
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12-29-2006, 09:28 AM | #4 |
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I think it's a great idea - who can possibly support poverty. I also like the marriage with the idea that the government can't do it alone. While it sounds like a great position, it also "sounds" like the same old, same old - tax the rich and give to the poor.
Unless he brings something specific to the table, I'm leery it can be done.
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12-29-2006, 09:40 AM | #5 |
This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off.
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Not to get too political here, but isn't the "less government, more individual" idea to combat poverty essentially the long-standing Republican position? Maybe there would be a difference of opinion as to how much governmental "interference" should be allowed, but Republicans have been stressing community/religion-based giving for years as an alternative to government programs. And how he will effectively marry "less government" and "universal healthcare" will be a challenge, I suspect.
That said, I think Clinton proved that a charismatic Democrat could effectively run on a pseudo-Democrat platform that borrowed from Republican ideals to sway swing votes. I'm not sure whether this one plank would be enough for Edwards, and I'll be interested to see whether this message really devolves into the standard "class warfare" position the Democrats usually take when it comes time to hit the campaign trail, but I don't see why it wouldn't help him gather some cross-over support.
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12-29-2006, 09:41 AM | #6 |
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No. As long as people understand the absolute facts of history. There have always been poor people, and that there will always continue to be poor people. It's just the way it is. The democrats have long been using this part of their playbook in order to get the mass amount of "have nots" to vote for them. It is a completely unrealistic platform, and the sooner voters realize this, the better.
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12-29-2006, 09:43 AM | #7 |
This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off.
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I'm ANTI-POVERTY! Take THAT! I still think one of the funniest things I've seen in a long time is Charlie Crist's Anti-Murder legislation in Florida. He's still pushing it. Of course, this time, it will be from the Governor's mansion, so what do I know. But the idea that we need "anti-murder" laws strikes me as hilarious. Just think of how many more people are going to be killed until Florida passes his anti-murder legislation!
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12-29-2006, 09:45 AM | #8 | |
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Quote:
It is not the responsibility of the federal government to bail people out of peoverty. As far as I can see, it already goes far beyond what a reasonable person should expect, in terms of assistance and programs. This is why we live in a free market, and a capitaslistic society. Anyone can change their situation in life (that's not to say all do) but as I said in my previous post, there will ALWAYS be the haves, and the have nots. |
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12-29-2006, 09:47 AM | #9 | |
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Quote:
As stated in my post, this is the view a lot of people have out there... so I'm not sure an anti-poverty message will succeed.
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12-29-2006, 09:51 AM | #10 | |
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I'm not sure if I'm getting what you are saying. Are you saying that no one, either government entity or private party, should do anything to reduce the number of poor because they've always been around and always will be? To me, a program (public or private) that enables people to be more productive members of society is a good thing, as long as the production generated is more than the cost to run.
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12-29-2006, 09:58 AM | #11 |
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No, what I am saying is: 1) poverty will always exist, 2) it is better to fight it from within the private sector, as doing so is not really the responsibility of the federal government, although it does provide SOME assistance which is OK, but the bulk of the help is better to come from the private sector. 3) The best way to prevent poverty is education, not through saying you are going to fight poverty that already exists. 4)Democrats have long used this platform as a "trick" in my mind to get people to vote for them. As I said earlier, there will always be poor people, no matter what you do, and that it really isn't the federal government's problem to solve.(or at least it shouldn't be) unless we are talking about preventative measures such as education.
Last edited by PSUColonel : 12-29-2006 at 09:59 AM. |
12-29-2006, 10:01 AM | #12 | |
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Then it sounds like you don't disagree with his message of "the government can't do it all, the people have to do it". Like I said, he'll have to get this key part of his message out, otherwise people will make the assumptions you made that it is a typical Democratic initiative to expand the welfare state.
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Thinkin' of a master plan 'Cuz ain't nuthin' but sweat inside my hand So I dig into my pocket, all my money is spent So I dig deeper but still comin' up with lint |
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12-29-2006, 10:08 AM | #13 |
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Theoretically, however - does poverty HAVE TO exist? Suppose everyone gets a fair education, and everyone strives to receive one. Is there such a thing as a free-market society without the poor?
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12-29-2006, 10:10 AM | #14 | |
lolzcat
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Well, since Edwards is in the center of this so far... here is his announcement speech transcript:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...800457_pf.html Quote:
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12-29-2006, 10:10 AM | #15 | |
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That seems like a tough platform to run on. Being anti-poverty makes sense, but if his stance is that people have to fix poverty, not the government...what then is his position? "I'm going to stamp out poverty by making others stamp out poverty"? As far as eliminating poverty in 30 years, I don't think that is possible unless you put everyone on a level playing field. Don't the rules of economics and inflation pretty much say that there will always be rich and poor unless everyone is exactly the same? |
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12-29-2006, 10:12 AM | #16 | |
lolzcat
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This is an ongiong matter of debate in economic circles, often expressed as two competing theories... "wage competition" and "job competition." Some would suggest that if everyone gets better educated and trained, then everyone will command more in the workforce and everyone will be better off. Others would counter that in any society, we still need dishwahers and ditchdiggers, and those jobs will just go to whomever are the least-trained and least-educated among us, for low wages. I don't think it's a closed debate, really. |
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12-29-2006, 10:15 AM | #17 | |
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The way I see it, the approaches used since the 1960s declared "War on Poverty" have obviously not worked. Instead of using massive government programs to approach the problem, take the approach of giving incentives to private parties to tackle the issue. The parallel I can think of is that the US government doesn't conduct R&D for companies, they offer tax breaks to companies to offset their R&D costs.
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12-29-2006, 10:18 AM | #18 | |
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If everyone commands more in the workforce, and actually gets more, inflation will kick in since people have more money to throw at available goods. Does anything actually get better in that situation? |
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12-29-2006, 10:18 AM | #19 |
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Sounds amazingly like George Bush's trashed "thousand points of light."
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12-29-2006, 10:20 AM | #20 | |
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I agree that a private approach is better than a government approach. Private firms are much more able to monitor their programs and make sure that people are working for their aid and not just "working the system" as some do. |
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12-29-2006, 10:22 AM | #21 | |
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Theoretically=utopia=doesn't exist=will never exist THe fact is we live in a competetive capitalistic society in which it is YOUR responsibility to take advantage of educational opprotunities, and to make sure YOU are the one getting the good job. I hope for YOUR sake that is what you do, however for those who don't they will likely end up with lower paying jobs and consequently have less money. There are exceptions to every rule, but this is generally how it works. Although I am becoming frightened at what is happening in the entertainment industry. Last edited by PSUColonel : 12-29-2006 at 10:29 AM. |
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12-29-2006, 10:26 AM | #22 |
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For better or worse, my belief has been that effective campaign strategies has always been "us versus them." I think the declining effectiveness of the middle class versus the rich concept to a certain degree is due to a number of factors. One inherent flaw in focusing on the middle class is that it ignores the lower class.
From the Edwards perspective, I think his "Two Americas" concept has a real draw to it because while it's inspiring on one level, at its base it's an "us versus them" argument. The largest block of voters are going be in the "one America" he will be talking about rising up. There is a huge group of potential voters at the lower end of spectrum who do not vote. Anyone who could tap into this group of voters and motivate them to get involved will succeed. Our nation's politics seem to come in cycles, and it certainly appears that the timing for an anti-poverty message may be approaching. This was a major tenet of Roosevelt's New Deal and Johnson's Great Society -- the Two Americas seems to fit in that line very well. That said, I think an anti-poverty campaign on the presidential level could be brutally effective -- for a Republican. It's one of those "only Nixon could go to China" things. |
12-29-2006, 10:39 AM | #23 | |
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You could say the same thing about crime. 1) Crime always has existed and always will exist 2) The best ways to protect yourself from crime are things done privately, such as using alarms, travelling in groups and and whatnot. The government spends a ton of money trying to prevent crime, but you still have to protect yourself privately. 3) The best way to prevent crime is education 4) Politicians have always used crime as a trick to get people to vote for them, labelling their opponents as "soft on crime" because they oppose a law banning the sale of machine guns and grenade launchers. There has always been crime and always will be crime and they government can't solve it. So why do we bother trying? Let's shut down every police department in the country, shut down the FBI and turn everything over to the private sector. We'll hire security companies to protect our property; the media can keep a watch on crooked politicians the Enrons of the world. |
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12-29-2006, 10:52 AM | #24 |
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A campaign strategy is only going to be as effective as the opposition's attempts to destroy it are ineffective. When you hear the words "end poverty", you're hearing the words "give the poor more money". Edwards has no chance to raise the level of debate to alternative solutions faster than Republican strategists can seed the idea of massive tax increases. The idea is a complete non-starter. It would, however, be an exquisite topic to press in an inauguration speech.
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12-29-2006, 10:53 AM | #25 | |
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But is it not your governments responsibility that you get the education you need to be able to get that good job? |
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12-29-2006, 10:55 AM | #26 | |
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An excellent comparison. Poverty is a tough issue, and I don't pretend to know all the answers. I do agree with PSU in that education can be a gateway out of poverty. But I also do think that education alone is not a panacea. For example, research indicates that poor nutrition adversely affects the ability for one to learn. So, without addressing hunger, an emphasis on education may not be very effective. There are likely to be other links like hunger-learning that preclude anything but a comprehensive approach to the general problem. |
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12-29-2006, 11:07 AM | #27 |
"Dutch"
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I'm sick of people bashing the rich in this country. We are not some despotic nation where the people on top stole money from the poor. It's a free capitalist society. There are large ammounts of upper class people that worked damned hard to get to their point and work damned hard to be rich. Doctors, lawyers, businessmen, managers and small business owners for example.
These people did not hold a gun to anybody's head and demand they get paid $125,000 a year (or whatever). And John Edwards says Americans need to stop being patriotic about war and start being patriotic about other things, things like universal health care and global warming. And who should pay? Not everybody, just the rich folks at the top. Talk about saying the right things. We continually make the mistake that everybody in poverty today will be in poverty 10 years from now or 20 years from now. That's simply not true. Poverty is a point in time. Many people progress out of poverty into the middle class, and many people progress from middle class into upper class. It doesn't happen over night, but it happens. Obviously, not everybody is going to get out of poverty, but we should always be mindful of ways to improve capitalism. Ways to reward those who bust their ass to get out of poverty. But we should do so in a way that protects our freedoms and protects our ability to grow. If we tax the hell out of the rich to the point where the ammount of work and effort it takes to become a doctor or a lawyer aren't equal to the pay, it hurts everybody, not just the rich. The dream of all young folks is to at least be financially comfortable. But if you start them off too comfortable, they won't progress nearly as fast as those who are uncomfortable. A certain amount of stress on folks lives is needed to get them off their butts and contribute to America. And you all know what I'm talking about. It's amazing how much we progress when we compete in the marketplace and how little we progress when we don't. I believe John Edwards when he says he is anti-poverty. I do. But I don't believe his sincerity when he says that all Americans need to sacrifice a bit for global warming and universal healthcare in one sentence and then says that nobody but the rich should pay for it in the next. America isn't powerful in spite of capitalism. John Edwards, as well as anybody, should know that. Last edited by Dutch : 12-29-2006 at 11:11 AM. |
12-29-2006, 11:13 AM | #28 |
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Edwards was bashing the rich and saying they should pay for it all? He said they should roll back the tax cuts for the top, but I didn't see him say they should be the ones to pay for it all or bashing them in any way.
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12-29-2006, 11:17 AM | #29 |
Death Herald
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Dutch,
where has anyone bashed the rich in this thread or any of the links in this thread?
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12-29-2006, 11:23 AM | #30 | |
This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off.
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Quote:
Much like there's a legitimate debate over whether increasing the minimum wage (or even having one) actually hurts or helps people. One theory is that by forcing companies to pay the lower-skilled workers more, it will negatively affect the number of jobs available, so that fewer people will have jobs, albeit at a slightly higher wage.
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12-29-2006, 11:25 AM | #31 | |
"Dutch"
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cartman, I didn't say anybody in this thread was bashing the rich. I was specifically talking about Edwards speech that was quoted. Sorry for the confusion.
Quote:
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12-29-2006, 11:29 AM | #32 | |
"Dutch"
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Quote:
He put the responsability on everybody to support universal health care and global warming, but when asked who will fit the bill, he said those "on top". |
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12-29-2006, 11:31 AM | #33 |
This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off.
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And that's where Edwards will lose effectiveness, if he (or his party) plays up the "class warfare" platform they always trot out during the campaigns. I am interested in lessening people's reliance on the government for basic necessities; I'm not interested in mandating that certain people pay for it.
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12-29-2006, 11:37 AM | #34 |
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A few things.
Say what you want about the Great Society, but during the sixties the poverty rate was cut almost in half. The single best way to reduce poverty in the inner city would be more government funded lead abatement programs. Lead poisoning lowers IQ and increases violent behavior and is primarily a problem in lower income households. Edwards himself is very unlikely to win regardless of message. He has to compete for money and airtime with Clinton and Obama. I would be shocked if he can take the nomination. What's his power base? An anti-poverty message isn't enough IMO. I do think there is room for a strong "class warfare" message as it's indisputable that the wealthiest are taking far more of our GPD than any time since the Depression. The real problem though isn't money as much as risk. Job instability, healthcare, insurance costs, etc. have convinced the majority of Americans that their children will have less than they did. Dutch, your being upset by the term universal healthcare is silly.
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12-29-2006, 11:38 AM | #35 | |
"Dutch"
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Quote:
Exactly. I hate this perception that rich people are somehow less deserving of their money than I am of mine. |
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12-29-2006, 11:39 AM | #36 |
"Dutch"
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12-29-2006, 11:40 AM | #37 | |
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Dutch: How does going back to the tax rates of the Clinton years lead to this,
Quote:
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12-29-2006, 11:41 AM | #38 |
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Dutc: It's not an attack. You're trying to imply that universal healthcare means Americans will be paying for healthcare for the entire universe or something.
It just is silly.
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12-29-2006, 11:43 AM | #39 |
"Dutch"
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I do not think that "universal health care" is silly. I do think that if Edwards asks everybody to sacrifice for "universal health care", then why then say those "on top" particularly will pay for it? That's a bit misleading.
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12-29-2006, 11:46 AM | #40 |
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Both sides need to acknowledge the fact that some pretty large tax increases are going to be necessary in the coming years. Since 2002, the amount of promised government expenditures has gone from $18 trillion to $50 trillion. That is 5X GDP. That is not a number that the economy can grow into. If taxes aren't raised, then more money will have to be printed, which is how every other economy in history has addressed this issue. That leads to rampant inflation. There are a few options, and none of them are particularly appealing. One would be to rollback the entitlement programs (Medicade, medicare, Social Security), another would be to raise taxes, and the third would be to print more money and raise inflation. There really isn't much of a difference between a 25% tax increase and a 25% rate of inflation, the average person will lose a similar amount of "real" money either way.
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Thinkin' of a master plan 'Cuz ain't nuthin' but sweat inside my hand So I dig into my pocket, all my money is spent So I dig deeper but still comin' up with lint Last edited by cartman : 12-29-2006 at 11:56 AM. Reason: edit: trillion, not billion |
12-29-2006, 11:47 AM | #41 | |
"Dutch"
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Quote:
I'm voicing opposition to Edwards suggestion that the rich should pay for our universal healthcare coverage. And I did not imply that all Americans will be paying for the world's healthcare. |
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12-29-2006, 11:49 AM | #42 |
Dark Cloud
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His support base are upper middle class, white suburbanites who go to the city to "do good" and then travel back to their homes, eat organic food and hate Wal-Mart on principle.
I can't see how he's going to do anything than tread water in a race with Obama and Clinton. Though, he's probably poised to be in contention as someone's running mate again. He won't be such a contrast like he was with Kerry this time. |
12-29-2006, 11:53 AM | #43 |
"Dutch"
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I don't think Edwards can win on an "anti-poverty" campaign. I think you are right, Dark Cloud. H. Clinton and Obama will basically say the same things, but with much more influence.
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12-29-2006, 11:54 AM | #44 |
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The financial numbers I mentioned are from the 2006 Financial Report of the US Government, released by the Department of Treasury. The link, for those interested in a little light reading is:
http://fms.treas.gov/fr/index.html with this report being the most eye-opening: http://fms.treas.gov/fr/06frusg/06gao1.pdf
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Thinkin' of a master plan 'Cuz ain't nuthin' but sweat inside my hand So I dig into my pocket, all my money is spent So I dig deeper but still comin' up with lint Last edited by cartman : 12-29-2006 at 11:58 AM. |
12-29-2006, 11:56 AM | #45 |
lolzcat
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I guess it's my fault, in sizable part, for posting the Edwards text... but to me, focusing on the specifics of what Edwards is saying takles this conversation away from what I think is more interesting.
To me, I just wonder if the generic message of "we should be doing more to reduce poverty in this country" is a rellying cry that gets many votes in America today. The specifics of whether you pay for it by one means or another seem to me to be somewhat separable. I think I side with the several here who have expressed that this just doesn't resonate broadly enough. I think such a sizable share of the voting population basically believes that (most? all?) poor people are poor by choice or lack of effort, that they are not persuaded that anyone else really needs to do anything about it. Their interest is definitely more about helping people who are working but can't get ahead... or in preserving the gains achievable by those who make more substantial contributions to society or the economy. |
12-29-2006, 12:22 PM | #46 |
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I have two key points / questions:
1) Define "poverty". You can't fight something without defining it. 2) As pointed out in this thread, the beauty of America is the ability to move up and down the economic scale. People can pull themselves up from the muck if they choose to work hard, and people can dump themselves back into it if they choose to rest on their laurels. Additional comments: How do you expect to help someone that won't help themselves? I'm all for programs that give people a leg up, but I'm not for handouts that people use as an excuse to sit around all day. Somehow you need to figure out how to weed out the people that are content with welfare (anyone else ever work in a business where people came by to get a signature that they had applied for a job, when they had no intent of landing the job but just needed to show they were "trying" to keep their benefits?) from those that really just need a start (seed money for a college education, say). Even a high-budget TV show like "Extreme Makeover" has generated controversy in their choices of who to help despite extensive screening processes. As long as the images of the "poor" include TVs, cars, and bling, you'll have a hard time convincing those that are working hard to make major sacrifices. Especially when many of those may have pulled themselves up from that muck themselves and have seen that it can be done.
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12-29-2006, 12:31 PM | #47 | |||
"Dutch"
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Tampa, FL
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Well, I guess it was your "fault" by giving us too much information to work with. I, personally, should have better recognized that what I responded to and said would have slid things off into mudslinging. Sorry about that. Quote:
I don't really think they are. When Obama, or Clinton, or Edwards or Bush talk to their base, they talk to their base. There is no "we" in partisan politics and that was the point I wanted to raise, although with poor results. It is simply not fair to say that Edwards is sincere when he says that we all need this and that and that 'they' will pay for it. Now, if a candidate said everybody must pay for it regardless of whether or not you are red, black, white, blue, Christian, Jewish, rich, poor, male or female. I'd be willing to listen to that. But as it stands, I'll just stick to my little partisan side of things if everybody else does. Just to be honest about that. Quote:
I don't think it's unfair to side with that logic. There is a certain "survival of the fittest" mentality to our world. We can be kind about it, especially for those who are in need, but we should also recognize, not punish those who have accomplished so much. Last edited by Dutch : 12-29-2006 at 12:34 PM. |
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12-29-2006, 12:56 PM | #48 | |
lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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There already is a pretty well-established definition of poverty in this country. While the absolute specifics might be negotiable among sensible people, I really don't think this is a central issue. FWIW: Poverty Line -- does that get you what you're looking for there? |
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12-29-2006, 01:04 PM | #49 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Newburgh, NY
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I think we also need to put a distinction between the wealthy and the ultra-wealthy. At the very top there are a number of built in advantages(acess to politicians, college admissions, insider trading info, etc.) to help keep/acquire wealth that lead to an almost de facto aristocracy. That's why we've seen huge amounts of wealth being accumulated by the very top over the past couple of decades.
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12-29-2006, 01:19 PM | #50 | |
"Dutch"
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Tampa, FL
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Or maybe just a counter. Like a stronger enforcement of the law. Special priviledge to politicians (read: favors), college admissions (read: favors), and insider trading (read: favors) are all illegal if the proper laws regarding such are not followed. White collar crime needs to be addressed as a priority today as much as it was after the Enron/World Bank scandals of a half a decade ago. I still fail to see the advantage in penalizing everyone that is ultra-rich if they earned their money fairly and behave ethically. |
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