NL Rookie of the Year: Ryan Howard

[RedKingGold]

If the Phillies make the playoffs, this guy has to be it. He is almost as clutch as David Ortiz and (with Chase Utley) has propelled this club's offense.

Just hit a grand slam down 0-2 with 2 outs to put the Phils on top of the Mets 5-2.

[kcchief19]

They would have to change the rules allowing second-year players to win the award.

[Logan]

That was a god awful pitch by Perez. Ruined a nice night.

But yeah, he should win the MVP over Beltran.

[MizzouRah]

Originally Posted by kcchief19

They would have to change the rules allowing second-year players to win the award.

I thought this was a thread from last year.

[kcchief19]

Originally Posted by MizzouRah

I thought this was a thread from last year.

You know, between Pujols and Howard, you'd think the state of Missouri would be the baseball capitol of the college baseball world.

[MizzouRah]

Originally Posted by kcchief19

You know, between Pujols and Howard, you'd think the state of Missouri would be the baseball capitol of the college baseball world.

Amen.

You watching the Chiefs - Rams game?

[kcchief19]

I just saw the Chiefs first team offense shove it down the Rams throat, yes.

[MizzouRah]

Originally Posted by kcchief19

I just saw the Chiefs first team offense shove it down the Rams throat, yes.

There's a reason LJ is rated #1 for most Fantasy Football reports.

That's ok though.. the Martz era is over. For that, I can sit and relax watching them play.

[JS19]

Originally Posted by Logan

But yeah, he should win the MVP over Beltran.

Thats dirty talk. Actually I will admit, IF the Phils make the playoffs he deserves it.

[MizzouRah]

Originally Posted by MizzouRah

There's a reason LJ is rated #1 for most Fantasy Football reports.

That's ok though.. the Martz era is over. For that, I can sit and relax watching them play.

..or not

[dervack]

Originally Posted by kcchief19

They would have to change the rules allowing second-year players to win the award.

And allowing them to win it two years in a row.

[EagleFan]

He should get a little MVP support, but finish about 4th in the voting.

It's getting close to time to say goodbye to Schmidt's record for homeruns in a season. Anyone want to bet that he plays the "wish I got to play in that ballpark" card? Sorry, loved Schmidt as a third baseman but he seems to be a genuine a-hole by all accounts.

[stevew]

Looking over the schedule, I believe todays game with the Mets is the last over .500 club the Phils will face this year. While the NL is so pisspoor this season, I guess that's not saying much though.

[stevew]

He hit number 49 last night, and got his 40th RBI of the month. If you believe that McGwire, Sosa and Bonds were all cheaters(and I pretty well do), this may be our first chance to actually see a legit athlete challenge Maris' record. Then again, Howard could always be on Winstrol too.

[RedKingGold]

Bump for Howard's 3-HR performance today.

And to think Eddie Wade almost traded him for Kris Benson (in 2004)

[EagleFan]

Wow, just wow.

With his late season major surge I may need to rethink my MVP predictions.

[stevew]

And it looks like they are going to blow game one anyways. If they actually had some relief pitching, they'd be good.

[JonInMiddleGA]

And with that comeback victory, I believe the faint distant hope of the Braves sneaking into the WC spot just ended.

[stevew]

And a comeback victory. I like that.

[oykib]

According to Win Shares, he's not even close to Beltran. Supposedly, he's the worst defensive first baseman in the league. Also, The difference in their ballparks is the main difference between their hitting numbers.

[Arctus]

Originally Posted by oykib

Also, The difference in their ballparks is the main difference between their hitting numbers.

Beltran's numbers are probably hurt by plaing in Shea. Howard's home/away splits are virtually identical (he's actually a bit better on the road this year).

[oykib]

Originally Posted by Arctus

Beltran's numbers are probably hurt by plaing in Shea. Howard's home/away splits are virtually identical (he's actually a bit better on the road this year).

Despite it's bandbox rep Philly plays fairly neutral. But Shea is usually the worst park in the NL.

Beltran is about twelve Win Shares ahead of Howard now. His offensive contributions are worth about five WS of that advantage.

I posted the full list here

[EagleFan]

Ah yes, win shares, yet another attempt to turn baseball into a spread sheet with a calculation du jour.

[oykib]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Ah yes, win shares, yet another attempt to turn baseball into a spread sheet with a calculation du jour.

You know, you're right. Win Shares is so much stupider than the traditional unquantified calculations for MVP. I think we should forget WS, EQA, VORP and the like.

It's so much better to just look at the top teams and pick the RBI man on the team that was good enough to be a contender but not good enough to run away with it.

BTW, VORP, which is just based on offensive contributions, has Beltran just edging Howard 64.9 to 63.8.

EQA has Howard over Beltran .325 to .319.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by oykib

You know, you're right. Win Shares is so much stupider than the traditional unquantified calculations for MVP. I think we should forget WS, EQA, VORP and the like.

It's so much better to just look at the top teams and pick the RBI man on the team that was good enough to be a contender but not good enough to run away with it.

BTW, VORP, which is just based on offensive contributions, has Beltran just edging Howard 64.9 to 63.8.

EQA has Howard over Beltran .325 to .319.

lol, equations mean nothing when the game is on the line.

Do equations tell you that an opposing manager will intentionally walk a player every time he steps up to the plate in extra innings? Will equations tell you that an opposing manager would walk the player with runners on 1st and 2nd and one out to load the bases instead of pitching to him with the game on the line? MVP should be about knowing the players, not knowing a spread sheet.

Hell, you act as if I am arguing for Howard as MVP, read my earlier prediction.

My point is that baseball stat geeks fall in love with numbers and made up equations instead of looking at the whole picture, the actual players involved who aren't just numbers to be crunched. Even funnier when you see how defensive they get when you challenge their equations.

[Shkspr]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

lol, equations mean nothing when the game is on the line.

Ed Wade would agree with you, as would Dusty Baker. Good company there, Cochise.

[RedKingGold]

Meh, for all statistic debate aside, I think its finally cool as a Phillies fan to see some of these young players do some great things to keep this team in contention.

Howard, Utley, and Hamels...I heart you all.

BTW; Maybe Hamels should get some Rookie of the Year consideration if he pitches in September like he has been lately.

[RedKingGold]

dola

I can't forget to mention Rowland, Chris Coste (the 33-year old rookie), and Shane Victorino all playing well.

Best of all, we got rid of two stiffs in Abreu and Bell. Now if we could just get rid of Burrell, I would be really happy.

[oykib]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

lol, equations mean nothing when the game is on the line.

Do equations tell you that an opposing manager will intentionally walk a player every time he steps up to the plate in extra innings? Will equations tell you that an opposing manager would walk the player with runners on 1st and 2nd and one out to load the bases instead of pitching to him with the game on the line? MVP should be about knowing the players, not knowing a spread sheet.

Hell, you act as if I am arguing for Howard as MVP, read my earlier prediction.

My point is that baseball stat geeks fall in love with numbers and made up equations instead of looking at the whole picture, the actual players involved who aren't just numbers to be crunched. Even funnier when you see how defensive they get when you challenge their equations.

So then you are saying that you don't make calculations? The difference is that you won't quantify yours so that they can change according to what you feel like at the moment.

And I never said that you were arguing for Howard. I was supporting my argument that Belrtran has been significantly better than Howard this year.

Here's are two simple comparisons of the two that don't include any of those nasty equations:

Beltran

 	 	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	 
 Home	 	60	218	56	49	15	0	15	37	43	42	10	1	.225	.352	.500	.852	 
 Away	 	62	237	57	81	21	1	24	75	32	45	6	2	.342	.420	.743	1.162	

Howard

 	 	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	 
 Home	 	70	253	47	78	7	1	27	69	42	75	0	0	.308	.410	.664	1.074	 
 Away	 	64	247	41	76	11	0	25	64	34	79	0	0	.308	.392	.656	1.047	 

Beltran's away stats are somewhat better than Howard's. But he's Beltran has underperformed at home-- even considering that it's a lousy place to hit.

But how about this:

Beltran

	 	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	 
 Total	 	122	455	113	130	36	1	39	112	75	87	16	3	.286	.386	.626	1.013	

Rowand

 	 	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	 
 Total	 	109	405	59	106	24	3	12	47	18	76	10	4	.262	.321	.425	.745	

Howard

	 	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	 
 Total	 	134	500	88	154	18	1	52	133	76	154	0	0	.308	.401	.660	1.061	 

Delgado

	 	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	 
 Total	 	123	451	82	122	25	2	35	98	67	104	0	0	.271	.370	.568	.938	

Now this is not a totally fair comparison because Delgado is having a good season, while Rowand's season has ben so-so. But it illustrates how difficult it is for good defensive centerfielders to stay healthy and to produce big offensive numbers.

It's relatively easy to find a guy you can stick at 1B who can hit. And 1B isn't demanding enough physically to really keep the player out of the lineup.

[DeToxRox]

And your stats prove Howard has NO protection in the lineup, Beltran has two other guys

[st.cronin]

The nerds just hate it when people enjoy a baseball player.

[DeToxRox]

The Mets have a vastly superior lineup to the Phillies too, so Beltran is getting more pitches with more guys on base. Take Beltran out of the lineup and ... He's the Beltran from Houston and KC. Good, sometimes great, not an MVP.

Yes, he's having MVP #'s, but Howard is the MVP. If Beltran isn't on the Mets .. They're still up 12-13 games. If Howard isn't on the Phillies, they're 10-11 back of the WC.

[MizzouRah]

Neither of them are Pujols.

[oykib]

Originally Posted by DeToxRoxDVHStyle

The Mets have a vastly superior lineup to the Phillies too, so Beltran is getting more pitches with more guys on base. Take Beltran out of the lineup and ... He's the Beltran from Houston and KC. Good, sometimes great, not an MVP.

Yes, he's having MVP #'s, but Howard is the MVP. If Beltran isn't on the Mets .. They're still up 12-13 games. If Howard isn't on the Phillies, they're 10-11 back of the WC.

Let's see...

NL team Runs Scored

1. Phillies 733
2. Mets 727

NL team Road Runs Scored

2. Phillies 395
5. Mets 324

That argument dosn't seem to hold water.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

The nerds just hate it when people enjoy a baseball player.

SI

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Shkspr

Ed Wade would agree with you, as would Dusty Baker. Good company there, Cochise.

Wade is a numbers geek, next!!!

[condors]

Originally Posted by oykib

Let's see...

NL team Runs Scored

1. Phillies 733
2. Mets 727

NL team Road Runs Scored

2. Phillies 395
5. Mets 324

That argument dosn't seem to hold water.

are you trying to say that Pat Burrell is better protection than Delgado?

It isn't that complicated. Yesterday in extra innings Howard comes to the plate to lead off they walk him because they have no fear of the guys behind him, that wouldn't happen to Beltran.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by RedKingGold

dola

I can't forget to mention Rowland, Chris Coste (the 33-year old rookie), and Shane Victorino all playing well.

Best of all, we got rid of two stiffs in Abreu and Bell. Now if we could just get rid of Burrell, I would be really happy.

Too bad we're stuck with that piece of shit. At least Manuel isn't afraid to put his ass on the bench.

Victorino is playing well, he should be a good platoon type starter in the future.

Originally Posted by RedKingGold

Meh, for all statistic debate aside, I think its finally cool as a Phillies fan to see some of these young players do some great things to keep this team in contention.

Howard, Utley, and Hamels...I heart you all.

BTW; Maybe Hamels should get some Rookie of the Year consideration if he pitches in September like he has been lately.

Hamels is throwing great, and once he gets some consitency and maturity, I think he can be an elite starter. His whole day/night splits are crazy, in a way I wonder if the issue is that he's not mature enough to get in bed early the night before a start.

[oykib]

Originally Posted by condors

are you trying to say that Pat Burrell is better protection than Delgado?

It isn't that complicated. Yesterday in extra innings Howard comes to the plate to lead off they walk him because they have no fear of the guys behind him, that wouldn't happen to Beltran.

The Phils have scored more runs than the Mets. That means their offense is better. It's actually that simple. If their offense is better, and Beltran and Howard's numbers are comparable, it means that Howard's got better guys around him protecting him and setting the table.

[RedKingGold]

Originally Posted by oykib

The Phils have scored more runs than the Mets. That means their offense is better. It's actually that simple. If their offense is better, and Beltran and Howard's numbers are comparable, it means that Howard's got better guys around him protecting him and setting the table.

Hmm..I'm not sure you are taking other things into account which product runs. Stats such as propensity of opposite teams giving runs by errors, fly-ball to ground-ball ratios, and other things. There is more to producing runs than just putting up the total number of runs scored by each team.

This is where some stat guys have it wrong. Some are almost as extreme as the scouts who say statistics have no meaning and that the "five-tool" player will always win out.

The true answer of the value of a player is likely a combination of statistics and other human factors. This is what makes a player like Ryan Howard or David Ortiz more valuable to a team than Carlos Beltran.

I'm sorry what the numbers say. If you take a layman's perspective, there is no way you could say that the Phillies offense strikes more fear into opposing pitchers than the Met's offense. For example, if you take Beltran out of the lineup, he would likely be replaced by Lastings Milledge who could possibly put up similar numbers. Beltran being out would not make the Met's any easier to face. However, if you take Howard out (or Ortiz as we've seen), the back-up is likely Randall Simon who hasn't played ball for a major league team in quite a while. Howard out of the lineup definitely makes the Phillies offense less intimidating.

But you do have some good points. Beltran is definitely an MVP-Caliber player. The debate is also a fun one.

[condors]

Originally Posted by oykib

The Phils have scored more runs than the Mets. That means their offense is better. It's actually that simple. If their offense is better, and Beltran and Howard's numbers are comparable, it means that Howard's got better guys around him protecting him and setting the table.

those run scored are by the TEAM including Howard and the three guys in front of him, we are comparing the guy who hits behind him for protection

[oykib]

Originally Posted by condors

those run scored are by the TEAM including Howard and the three guys in front of him, we are comparing the guy who hits behind him for protection

That's moronic. How many ways will you skew the facts to fit your argument.

It's very simple. Stats can lie. But every stat doesn't lie.

If you take WS Beltran is well ahead. VORP has him fairly ahead. EQA has him slightly behind.

These composite stats are telling a story. Where do you see this story as wrong?

Take issue with one of my particular arguments and shoot it down if you can.

1. Beltran is vastly more valuable defensively than Howard. Beltran is one of the top CFs in the majors and Howard is one of the worst 1B.

Any scout would tell you the same.

2. Beltran's offensive numbers are at worst slightly behind Howard's. At least as many metrics put him ahead as behind.

Even if Beltran were behind Howard offensively, it would be nowhere near making up for the vast difference in their defensive production.

3. When you compare apples to apples, Beltran comes out far ahead of Howard. Let's list the 1B that have comparable offensive production:

Pujols
Berkman
Laroche
Johnson
Delgado

Now let's look at the guys in the NL that could give you production near Beltran's:

Jones

If you can't knock down these arguments, then you have to concede Beltrans has had the better year.

So your argument is all context. You are punishing Beltran for being on a better team, which is asinine. To win the MVP, a player has to be on a good team, but not so good that there's enough credit to go to any other players?

But the players surrounding Howard have put up as many runs as the players around Beltran have...

So, then, your argument is that Howard is the MVP over Beltran because Beltran's pitching staff is better than Howard's. What the hell does that have to do with these to players?!?

Well... other than the fact that the Met staff performs a fair amount better because Beltran is patrolling center and the Philly staff performs a fair amount worse because Howard is at first.

[condors]

Originally Posted by oykib

That's moronic. How many ways will you skew the facts to fit your argument.

It's very simple. Stats can lie. But every stat doesn't lie.

If you take WS Beltran is well ahead. VORP has him fairly ahead. EQA has him slightly behind.

These composite stats are telling a story. Where do you see this story as wrong?

Take issue with one of my particular arguments and shoot it down if you can.

1. Beltran is vastly more valuable defensively than Howard. Beltran is one of the top CFs in the majors and Howard is one of the worst 1B.

Any scout would tell you the same.

2. Beltran's offensive numbers are at worst slightly behind Howard's. At least as many metrics put him ahead as behind.

Even if Beltran were behind Howard offensively, it would be nowhere near making up for the vast difference in their defensive production.

3. When you compare apples to apples, Beltran comes out far ahead of Howard. Let's list the 1B that have comparable offensive production:

Pujols
Berkman
Laroche
Johnson
Delgado

Now let's look at the guys in the NL that could give you production near Beltran's:

Jones

If you can't knock down these arguments, then you have to concede Beltrans has had the better year.

So your argument is all context. You are punishing Beltran for being on a better team, which is asinine. To win the MVP, a player has to be on a good team, but not so good that there's enough credit to go to any other players?

But the players surrounding Howard have put up as many runs as the players around Beltran have...

So, then, your argument is that Howard is the MVP over Beltran because Beltran's pitching staff is better than Howard's. What the hell does that have to do with these to players?!?

Well... other than the fact that the Met staff performs a fair amount better because Beltran is patrolling center and the Philly staff performs a fair amount worse because Howard is at first.

my argument was never who is the mvp, that remains to be seen

I was just pointing out that you seem to have blinders on when it comes to Beltran

[oykib]

Originally Posted by condors

my argument was never who is the mvp, that remains to be seen

I was just pointing out that you seem to have blinders on when it comes to Beltran

Which blinders? Beltran's not even one of my guys. I'm a Yankee fan.

--point 'em out.

[condors]

Originally Posted by oykib

Which blinders? Beltran's not even one of my guys. I'm a Yankee fan.

--point 'em out.

the fact you tried to roll out some theory of how Howard is better protected in the lineup than Beltran, and leading the league in home runs and rbis isn't a bad thing, not sure why you seem to think he is a butcher in the field but while i don't think he is getting a gold glove he isn't a butcher either.

[Tyrith]

Protection has been proven to be an overrated concept. I think Howard should be the MVP over Beltran -- higher OPS, generally more impressive in all the intangibles (yes, this somewhat contradicts my first sentence). But I wouldn't count out Albert Pujols either, who leads the league in OPS and is probably the best all-around hitter in the league.

RANDOM OPS NOTE - Would you believe that Garrett Atkins is 12th in the league in OPS, right behind Carlos Delgado and in front of Jason Bay, David Wright, Carlos Lee (before trade), Adam Dunn, and Chase Utley? Fourth in the league in doubles, 22 homers, and a .392 OBP. Seems quite impressive.

[ISiddiqui]

I do like it when the 'stat-heads' totally blow apart the arguments of the 'old-school' folk. A lot of people do tend to forget that defensive contributions are very important to a team as well.

Now, if the argument is that Most Valuable should go to the player who was most instrumental in getting a team to the postseason, then perhaps Howard should get if the Phils get in by a game or so, but then the argument can be made that there are a number of players in the team valuable enough that without them the team doesn't make the postseason.

[Arctus]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

....but then the argument can be made that there are a number of players in the team valuable enough that without them the team doesn't make the postseason.

Not really, its the Most Valuable Player Award, not The Valuable Enough To Help The Team Make The Playoffs Award

[Arctus]

I think solid arguements can be made for Pujols, Beltran and Howard. I'd have no problem with any of them being named MVP.

I think Win shares is a great tool, but I also think that it is much more reliable when comparing the relative merits of two players on the same team, than it is comparing two players on different teams. I'm not a big fan of how it determines fielding win shares, but I can't really knock it since I don't have a better method to offer.

[oykib]

Originally Posted by Arctus

I think solid arguements can be made for Pujols, Beltran and Howard. I'd have no problem with any of them being named MVP.

I think Win shares is a great tool, but I also think that it is much more reliable when comparing the relative merits of two players on the same team, than it is comparing two players on different teams. I'm not a big fan of how it determines fielding win shares, but I can't really knock it since I don't have a better method to offer.

I agree that WS is far from perfect in calculating fielding Win Shares. But nobody would argue that Howard was more valuable defensively than Beltran.


Any stat can lie. But you can put them all together to get a clearer picture.

I have a problem with Pujols because he missed a month. He'd have to be vastly superior to the other contenders to make up for the difference.