OT: General poker question

[Maple Leafs]

I'm a bad poker play who tends to make money against very bad poker players. I play very low levels. I've been playing for less than a year, have read some books, but in general am a very casual enthusiast. In short, I'm not very good and I don't know very much*.

Anyways, I prefer no-limit hold'em and tend to play sit-n-go's rather than cash games, and over the past few weeks I've fallen into a sad little pattern. In the past few weeks, about 50% of my games (I keep track) have ended with me finishing one out of the money. Not dead last, not middle-of-the-pack, but last one out on the bubble. That seems odd to me. Doesn't really matter how many tables, payout structure, etc. As soon as I'm out, the champagne corks starts popping.

So my question to the experts is... without knowing much about my game, and given that this could just be variance showing it's sense of humor, what could the paragraph above suggest to you? Is there any sort of common problems a beginner would have in their game that would manifest itself that way? Anything that makes you say "yep, I bet he plays like this"? What sort of general tips could you offer?

Thanks in advance.

*Which doesn't stop me from slapping you all around when I enter a FOFC tourney. Boo-yah!

[MJ4H]

My guess is that you tighten up to much when it gets short-handed and your stack dwindles because of this. You need to become more aggressive when it gets down to 4 or 5 players (in a top3 payout system).

[SirFozzie]

speaking as a fellow bubble player.. here's what happens.

When you get close to eh money, your play style has to change. Depending on your goals, you need to either play more agressive (if you want to win), or more conservatively (if all you want to do is make the money).

You have to remember though, other players are adjusting their styles as well.. if you think someone's trying to limp in to the money, they're not going to play a hand unless they think they're a prohibitive favorite. So, if you're in against a player who you think is trying to limp into the money, make sure if they bet at you, to have a hand before you play back at them.

However, a more aggressive player, one who's trying to build a stack, to take a run at winning the whole thing or busting out in a blaze of glory.. will be more agressive pre flop and with a drawing hand. If you have a made hand, you may want to go for it.. but try to make sure you don't think he's trapping you with a made hand of his own..

[SirFozzie]

Also.. if you have a decent stack (you're not short stacked compared to the others left at your table.. DO NOT try to take a flier on stupid hands to knock someone out. If you have 72o for example, and a short stack moves in next to you in the SB, you may have pot odds, but remember.. if all he gets is the blinds, he's not helped that much.. likely is still short stacked. But if he goes all in and wins, well, you've just doubled that son of a bitch up, and now he can play more aggressively and use YOUR chips to knock you out.

[Radii]

Without having read any responses yet, here's my answer having gone in stretches where I play hundreds of SNGs and nothing else:


Look at what the situation is when you get down to 4 or 5 players left(assuming 3 pay of course). Are you always the shortest stack when you get to the bubble? If so, then you need to examine your earlier play. Either you're not properly opening your game up(loosening up a little bit more each time the blinds go up) or you're not getting maximum value for your good hands.


If you're not the short stack every time you get to the bubble, then its likely the bubble play itself. People hate to admit it, because they want to think that their tricky min-raises when the blinds are giant make them great players, but often the end of a SNG just comes down to simple math and simple all in/fold situations. That depends a bit on where you're playing though. If you're playing on partypoker, it is *definitely* true, if you're on stars maybe not so much. But when the blinds get large, don't get tricky, get agressive. Use fold equity to your advantage. But by the same token, stay out of situations where you can bleed chips. Don't chase draws when the blinds get big, etc.


All of that goes back to one fundamental point. You need to understand how to adjust your play as the blinds increase. Re-read the Harrington books(or if you haven't read them yet, do so ASAP if you're playing tournaments!).

And yeah, it could all be variance. Don't be too quick to blame bad play OR variance when you're losing money, but even if it is variance, examining parts of your game can only help you.


Also look at what's happening when you make the money. If more agression on the bubble means a couple more 4th place finishes but also a couple more 1st place finishes, then you're making yourself more money than if you were limping into 3rd more often but not winning as much.

[Maple Leafs]

Originally Posted by Radii

Look at what the situation is when you get down to 4 or 5 players left(assuming 3 pay of course). Are you always the shortest stack when you get to the bubble? If so, then you need to examine your earlier play. Either you're not properly opening your game up(loosening up a little bit more each time the blinds go up) or you're not getting maximum value for your good hands.

I'm typically short-stackled, so I think you've nailed it on both counts. I play tight early -- I thought that's what I was supposed to do, but I think I stick with it too long. And I know I don't get max value from my winning hands. At the low limits I see so many bad beats to terrible hands that I'm afraid to let anyone see a card when I'm ahead. So I overbet and take the pot down. It's probably saved me some bad beat stories but I bet it's cost me money over the long run.

[kcchief19]

Your problem sounds very familiar to me. I'm much more comfortable in tourneys than ring games and I'm not a high stakes player ... when I've had a good run and my account is strong, I'll go as high as a $30 SNG, but it's mostly lower stakes than that.

Long story short is I slowly worked my way from being a slightly less than break even player to being someone who would win money more often that I lost. After a few months of solid success, I suddenly hit a wall -- I couldn't money for the life of me. I finally got to a point where I decided I either needed to quit or get better.

So I bought the PokerTracker software and Harrington on Hold'em and went to school on my game and identified several significant flaws. In my case, the two biggest mistakes I make are risking too much money too early in tournamens (in tournaments, I found that I lose chips at an alarming rate at the first two levels of blinds, then make tons of chips at every blind later on) and I play too many middling hands that I think are good but aren't (I try to muck KT everytime I see it now given how I see I never win with it).

You might have different weaknesses, but I also find that at my level of play I'm a better player playing against better players than I am against worse players. I lost a big hand tonight because it never occured to me that someone would call a $300 raise at 50/100 blinds with K3o. A good player wouldn't do that, but once you raise above the level of fish, fish seem to have their way of taking you down.

I also have no dout that statisical variance plays a role. At the height of my success I don't think I was as a good of a player as my winnings suggested, and at the depths of my struggles I don't think I was as bad a player as my losses suggested. if you play as (in)frequently as I do, variance will be much wider.

So in summary, I think variance is certainly a factor, but more likely than not there are small deficiencies in your game that may be keeping you from long-term success. I'm not sure what those would be though. It could be many things. If you keep losing on the bubble, it could be you are playing too tight at the bubble or too loose. But you're the only who can examine that.

[kcchief19]

Originally Posted by Maple Leafs

I'm typically short-stackled, so I think you've nailed it on both counts. I play tight early -- I thought that's what I was supposed to do, but I think I stick with it too long.

You have the opposite problem I have. As hard as I've tried, I still tend to try to see too many flops cheaply early on with middling hands (A8s, for exampe), then get excited because I pick up a pair of eights and a flush draw and end up losing half my stack with a crappy hand against pocket kings.

Definitely agree with Radii. If your finding yourself shortstacked on the bubble, you're not taking advantage of situations earlier in the tournament to pick up more chips.

[Maple Leafs]

Originally Posted by kcchief19

You have the opposite problem I have. As hard as I've tried, I still tend to try to see too many flops cheaply early on with middling hands (A8s, for exampe), then get excited because I pick up a pair of eights and a flush draw and end up losing half my stack with a crappy hand against pocket kings.

Yes, that's what I kept running into. You convince yourself "well, I'll either hit it big or I'll miss and get away from it cheap". Then you hit it, but only kind of, and next thing you know half your chips are gone.

That said, playing tight is incredibly frustrating against weak opponents. You fold your ATo to a raise and a reraise, then see them turn over A3o and K9s (with the flop inevitably coming AT9). That happens three of four times, then you get your AA and everyone folds it to you. And now you have a below average stack and you're getting bullied by some fool who you can't believe can even feed himself.

I know, I know... long term, this is what you want. Let them play that way, you'll make your money off them over time. I understand it, but I struggle with it.