TCY to FOF - meaning of combine scores?

[QuikSand]

I confess, I haven't spent a whole lot of time with the TCY-to-FOF conversion. I find playing TCY to be pretty tedious, and I have been generally frustrated with the pretty inconsistent outcomes when translating college players to the profesional ranks. If things have improved a lot in recent generations of the two games, I probably am relatively unaware of the improvements.

With that caveat -- I have a question.

If I'm looking at an FOF draft, one of the things I look for is guys with standout combine scores. Many of you know the drill -- a guy who is extremely strong or fast or something along those lines might have a chance to be a "breakout" poklayer, and deserves some extra attention. Essentially, this amounts to a meta-game approach to the game -- I look at these guys not in football terms, but in computer game terms. Essentialy what I'm thinking is not "this LB is so fast, he will really get to the tackle quickly" but instead "if this guy runs the 40 that fast, he might be a hidden superstar whose overall ratings will improve."

However, if you are playing with players imported from TCY, what if the player actually seems to fit the football description that mirrors his unusual combine rating? The best example I can think of is a super-fast QB who has otherwise unexceptional passing skills. In an ordinary FOF setting, I might look at a rookie QB with a really fast 40 time and think "this guy might break out and turn out to be a much better QB overall than he appears."

But, what if that QB with the super-fast 40 time, when he was playing in the TCY college gam, was in fact just a scrambling RB-behind-center type? You know the type -- a guy who played QB but ran for 1,000 yards in an option offense, threw more picks than TDs, that sort of thing. That background certainly seems to suggest that he is what he appears to be - a really fast guy who is slotted at QB but really doesn't have the true package of passing skills that I'd be looking for. If the game really allowed it, I might be looking for a way to use him at another position, and perhaps even create a FOFC screen name based on him. But I digress. Point is -- a superfast QB who can't throw doesn't have much value to me, but a super breakout QB does. I'd really like to know whether the latter is very likely.

Bottom line: If you're importing from TCY, and you see a combine freak, do you discount the likelihood of a breakout if his TCY history is consistent with him just being a freak in that specific regard?

[QuikSand]

From the first try at this:

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

This poor little thread died before it ever had a chance to live.

As to the substance of your question, QS, I have no idea because, much like you, I have just not gotten into TCY. However, since TCY came out before combine scores were introduced to FOF, I would be suprised if there is a way to do the type of analysis about which you are speaking. I think (though this is just speculation) that one would have to wait for TCY2 to really get a full intergration with FOF.

[Warhammer]

That is where the stats from TCY would be cool, if they were correlations to how the player would perform in FOF.

[Celeval]

OMG, I lost post!


Just as a starting point, here's the link to the reference thread re: SkyDog's boom/bust research on combine scores: http://dynamic.gamespy.com/~fof/foru...ad.php?t=21765

Edit: QS - I know this doesn't address the question directly, but provides backinfo on (possible) meaning of combine scores.

[mhass]

Okay, short version of my post in the other:

I had a very strong tackle who sucked in college at anything blocking-related. He was far and away the strongest player in the draft. I took him late and he sucked.

I coached a corner in college who started but was otherwise kinda average. He ran a very fast 40 and was drafted in the mid rounds. He broke out in the pros and hung around many years.

Take away: strong tackles mean jack s--- but fast corners might mean something. That's very anecdotal though.

[QuikSand]

Sorry if you lost a post from the original -- I sensed the thread was in peril. Tried to bring over the substance -- must have missed a late post or two. My apologies.

[mhass]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Sorry if you lost a post from the original -- I sensed the thread was in peril. Tried to bring over the substance -- must have missed a late post or two. My apologies.

I'm not counting posts. I like the question anyway. I, like you, quit TCY. Me largely because of the inconsistency in player quality once they make the jump.

[Ben E Lou]

I did some preliminary research on this a while back, but didn't come to any conclusions. I'll see if I can dig up that thread...

[gstelmack]

In my experience doing drafts from TCY and drafts from FOF, combine scores in a TCY draft have a MUCH higher correlation to breakout players than combine scores in an FOF draft. I've had at least one insta-breakout player in every TCY draft I've done, and have yet to have an insta-breakout player in an FOF draft.

However, the combine scores seem to do a better job of preventing insta-busts in an FOF draft than in a TCY draft.

[Ben E Lou]

I bumped the other thread....

[Ben E Lou]

Harvested from the deleted thread...

Originally Posted by mhass

QS, I can think of two players in my experience that relate to your original question (and not MP recruiting).

One was a tackle that couldn't block a lick in college but got a gargantuan strength rating in the combine. I drafted him in the late rounds and he continued to not block a lick in the pros. He played out his first contract with me and basically disappeared.

Second was a corner that was a starter but not exceptional in college but ran a fast 40 at the combine. His other combine scores were not great but draft-worthy (someone else drafted him in the fourth or fifth). He DID breakout as a pro and became quite good.

I wish I could remember their Volatility rankings, but I can't. I took away from the corner's story that speed matters quite a bit to corners. The strong tackles are just meh.

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

This poor little thread died before it ever had a chance to live.

As to the substance of your question, QS, I have no idea because, much like you, I have just not gotten into TCY. However, since TCY came out before combine scores were introduced to FOF, I would be suprised if there is a way to do the type of analysis about which you are speaking. I think (though this is just speculation) that one would have to wait for TCY2 to really get a full intergration with FOF.