Poker: Another Tournament Hand Scenario

[primelord]

You are in a large Multi-Table NL Hold'em Tournament. The field started with 800 players and we are now down to 67. The top 65 players finish in the money. The blinds are at 400/800 with a 50 ante. Your stack is at 8,000 chips.

You are dealt Kc, Kd in middle position. The first couple of players fold and a new player to your table who has 10,500 in chips pushes all-in. Call or fold?

[rkmsuf]

wouldn't you have to call? Only one hand puts him ahead.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by rkmsuf

wouldn't you have to call? Only one hand puts him ahead.

The fact that you are only 2 out of the money makes this not quite a slam dunk.

I think that I would have to call, though.

[Honolulu Blue]

That bet smells of a blind/ante steal. I'd certainly call, hoping he didn't have an ace.

[Simms]

The safe, boring answer is probably fold when you're this close to the money. I'm sure that's not a bad play, as the guy who pushed a) has you covered and b) is new, so you have no read on what he could be pushing with. You still have a little room to manoeuver, with close to 10BBs, so wait until two more people go out and then try to build your stack.

That said, I'm almost certainly calling this.

QQ I probably fold, but with KK, there's only one hand that beats me pre-flop...if he has AA (or AK/AQ and spikes an A), so be it, but the fact remains that I *only* have 9 or so BBs left (including the antes), and this may very well be the best hand I see for the rest of the tournament. And generally speaking, I don't want to play for 65th place, I want to play for 1st.

A lot also depends on the specifics of the tourney. If this is a run-of-the-mill $10+1 where 65th through 40th place pays $15, I'm not worrying much about missing out on a $4 profit. If this is the quarter-mil at Party that I won a $9 satellite to and 65th place pays $250 (not an insignificant amount to me), then I'm probably folding everything up to and including AA until I'm safely in the money.

[primelord]

Originally Posted by Honolulu Blue

That bet smells of a blind/ante steal.

From early position with more than 10x the big blind?

[rkmsuf]

I'd be fairly certain he has an A. What you don't want is two aces.

If it's a blind steal the person is horribly out of position to do that since our hero is middle position and the all in bet was before him.

[rkmsuf]

Originally Posted by Simms

The safe, boring answer is probably fold when you're this close to the money. That's probably not a bad play, as the guy who pushed a) has you covered and b) is new, so you have no read on what he could be pushing with. You still have a little room to manoeuver, with close to 10BBs, so wait until two more people go out and then try to build your stack.

That said, I'm probably calling this.

QQ I probably fold, but with KK, there's only one hand that beats me pre-flop...if he has AA (or AK/AQ and spikes an A), so be it, but the fact remains that I *only* have 9 or so BBs left (including the antes), and this may very well be the best hand I see for the rest of the tournament. And generally speaking, I don't want to play for 65th place, I want to play for 1st.

A lot also depends on the specifics of the tourney. If this is a run-of-the-mill $10+1 where 65th through 40th place pays $15, I'm not worrying much about missing out on a $4 profit. If this is the quarter-mil at Party that I won a $9 satellite to and 65th place pays $250 (not an insignificant amount to me), then I'm probably folding everything up to and including AA until I'm safely in the money.

So someone goes all in preflop and you are folding AA?

[Simms]

Originally Posted by rkmsuf

So someone goes all in preflop and you are folding AA?

So long as I'm not in immediate danger of getting blinded out and am on the verge of guaranteeing myself a payday that would double my total bankroll, hell yes.

But that's just me. That's a *very* specific situation though, and not the situation that PL laid out. Just qualifying my answer a little.

[primelord]

Originally Posted by Simms

A lot also depends on the specifics of the tourney. If this is a run-of-the-mill $10+1 where 65th through 40th place pays $15, I'm not worrying much about missing out on a $4 profit. If this is the quarter-mil at Party that I won a $9 satellite to and 65th place pays $250 (not an insignificant amount to me), then I'm probably folding everything up to and including AA until I'm safely in the money.

I certainly understand this point. Ideally it shouldn't matter as a $4 profit is still better than an $11 loss, but I can certainly see that for being a reason to try to build your stack. I would think another factor that should be weighed out here is your time investment. Going out on the bubble in any tournament sucks. Going out on the bubble after spending the last 3 1/2 hours playing really sucks. Just something else to think about.

[dixieflatline]

This is an easy call. The raiser may have aces and if he does I lose. That's poker. This raise doesn't look like aces to me. The raiser has plenty of chips left and a huge bet like 10x the big blind isn't usually meant to encourage callers like you would want with aces. I think it's much more likely that he turns over JJ than AA. Even if you assign a 40% chance that he has aces(which is way too high) you still have to call here. Unless this is a tourney where the top 65 players all get seats into the WSOP.

[primelord]

If it makes any difference the average stack at this point is about 18,000 chips.

[primelord]

FWIW I don't think this is an easy decision at all. Certainly the only hand KK is an underdog to is AA. However if he has any A other than AA he will outdraw your Ks ~30% of the time. Certainly that is a huge edge for our hero. However we are talking about 30% of the time hero walks away from the tournament with nothing.

In addition to that we still have over half the table left to act. If someone else calls that lowers our expectation even more even if they are also holding an A unless it is the same hand (not suits obviously). Let's say the original raiser has JJ. We call and a short stack on the button calls with AQ. Our expectation for the hand drops to 56%. Again not a -EV call, but also not nearly as attractive.

I certainly don't think this is an easy call.

[Subby]

Easy call...I can probably count on one thumb the number of times I have seen someone with more than 10xBB push first-in with AA.

Thus, you are probably significantly ahead - get your money in when these situations come up.

Always.

[dixieflatline]

Originally Posted by primelord

FWIW I don't think this is an easy decision at all. Certainly the only hand KK is an underdog to is AA. However if he has any A other than AA he will outdraw your Ks ~30% of the time. Certainly that is a huge edge for our hero. However we are talking about 30% of the time hero walks away from the tournament with nothing.

If the player is trying to get to the final table where the real money tends to be you can't pass up opportunities like this. This is an excellent chance to double up. If hero is throwing away JJ or AK this I understand because he may only be a slight favorite in the hand. Yes villian might have an ace, an ace might hit on the flop, and you might be out of the tourney but that is a risk you have to take in this situation. If you are laying down KK here what would you do if the raiser had made it 5x the BB here. Clearly he is pot committed and calling would make you pot committed so you really should be pushing or folding here as well. In fact, it's probably more likely he has aces if he "only" raises 5x the BB. If your folding to that then what raise are you not folding to?

In addition to that we still have over half the table left to act. If someone else calls that lowers our expectation even more even if they are also holding an A unless it is the same hand (not suits obviously). Let's say the original raiser has JJ. We call and a short stack on the button calls with AQ. Our expectation for the hand drops to 56%. Again not a -EV call, but also not nearly as attractive.

I certainly don't think this is an easy call.

I just don't get it. If someone in LP with 3000 chips calls with AQ I'm estatic. This player can't bust me if he hits his ace and I'm a big favorite to take his chips and get us closer to the money. Primelord weren't you the one saying we should be thankful when bad players put their money in in a bad situation? This is a horrible call by LP with AQ if he makes it. After two all in's and a chance to creap closer to the money. And if the raiser also has an ace now there are only 2 left in the deck that will beat you. You should be welcoming calls at this point not bemoaning when/if they happen.

[primelord]

I knew I wouldn't be very good at arguing the other side of this. Especially as dixieflatline pointed out I am always insisting you push +EV plays.

I ran into the situation I described last night. I of course called and everyone else folded. The original raiser had Ah Qh. The board didn't help him and I doubled up. I agree that this is a call that I would likely make 100% of the time and I really didn't give it much thought during the hand.

I am however convinced this is a close call though. With the exact hand my opponent had I was a 67% favorite to win the hand. That means a 3rd of the time I am walking away with nothing just two spots from the money. And again had someone else called with virtually any other hand it would have driven down my expectation even more. A short stack may not be able to bust me, but he can certainly cripple me. And with the blinds only a few spots away that would be bad.

So I am not certain that folding is an awful decision here, but it is also not one I think I would ever make. Just wanted to see what you guys thought.

[GreenMonster]

Originally Posted by primelord

I knew I wouldn't be very good at arguing the other side of this. Especially as dixieflatline pointed out I am always insisting you push +EV plays.

I ran into the situation I described last night. I of course called and everyone else folded. The original raiser had Ah Qh. The board didn't help him and I doubled up. I agree that this is a call that I would likely make 100% of the time and I really didn't give it much thought during the hand.

I am however convinced this is a close call though. With the exact hand my opponent had I was a 67% favorite to win the hand. That means a 3rd of the time I am walking away with nothing just two spots from the money. And again had someone else called with virtually any other hand it would have driven down my expectation even more. A short stack may not be able to bust me, but he can certainly cripple me. And with the blinds only a few spots away that would be bad.

So I am not certain that folding is an awful decision here, but it is also not one I think I would ever make. Just wanted to see what you guys thought.

It really depends on your poker level.. Early in my poker career I may have thought about folding, as making the money was a big deal. After I won or finished very high in some larger multi's (1500+) my view changed. Because all that matters is the final table to me and with blinds that high and with antes you may not find a better spot to get your chips in after you make the money. Making the money is important to me as a tournament player but making the top 10 is my main goal. The only other decision that would change my call would be the type of tourney I was in. Since I mostly play the $20's and $30's making the money would be a $30-50 win. But if I was in a $200 tourney I won my way in and making the money meant 200+ I would most likely fold and keep my profit.

[QuikSand]

I think it depends on what "in the money" really means in this event.

A lot of large events like this award fairly token sums of money to lots of positions -- maybe something like twice the buy-in or thereabouts. If that's the case, then the "real money" may not be in play until you make it to the top 20 or so positions. If that's a fair summary of the payouts, then I don't care that much about the difference between just in the money and just outside the money... I push my chips in here for sure.

I'd think twice if you added an even steeper cliff here, though. What if this is a qualifying tournament of some sort, where the top 65 finishers go on, and everyone else is out? If that's the case, then I think folding is not only defensible, it's almost essential.

So, even though this setup is clearly designed to place a premium emphasis on the "cliff effect" in payouts, I think there's more information needed. If, as is usually the case, the money isn't all that much to start out with and there are no other considerations... I agree with the majority here that this is a pretty easy call.

[RGunner]

In all honesty like Simms said, it really matters what the payout structure is and how much getting 65th means to you and your bankroll. If its a measly 15 bucks and thats not a significant addition to your bankroll, then obviously you are playing for 1st place rather than just assuring yourself a spot in the money, therefore in this situation you will call 100% of the time.

But, if like Simms said, 65th pays a good $200 and that would double up your bankroll or at least increase it significantly, then you may fold, but only if you have a stack that you will be able to play with after the bubble area finishes and you reach the money. Just making it into the money may be big, but you also have to attempt to give yourself a playable stack once you get there, to give yourself a shot at even bigger money and not just that one pay level right there.

If it were me, I'd call everytime, yea I'd be pissed if I lost, but I'm only behind one hand, and the other hands are going for a 3 outer or a 2 outer most of the time, I like those odds.

[Radii]

I agree with QS on the need to look at the money. In any online tournament I've ever played in with the exception of qualifiers where 1st and 65th are the same then I'm calling.

However, if I spent $500 to qualify for the world series of poker(or a WPT event, whatever), and if I survive two more spots I am guarenteed a payout of $11,000, then I am folding every time.


In a majority of tournaments though, I hate finishing justoutside the money, but, just barely making the money isn't worth folding a hand like KK, you need to finish high up in the money to make your time investment really worthwhile, so play for the win.