(nonpolitical) George Tenet on the world today

[JAG]

Hey all,

I just received this from a friend of mine in Virginia who works in government and apparently was able to get a chance to chat with George Tenet. I thought it was interesting so I'm passing it along. Some of it was familiar, but I learned a few interesting things I hadn't seen previously.


Greetings!

FS provided me with the opportunity to do a luncheon with George Tenet, ex-director CIA, last week (thank you F!). The following are my notes from that luncheon. All the notes are UNCLAS.

Mr. Tenet started by describing the strengths of the present day CIA as contrasted with the state of the CIA when he took over the position seven years ago. He pointed out that there were 138,000 applicants last year for only 2,000 advertised positions. Last year recorded an attrition rate of less than 4% for the CIA. Only 11 personnel were recorded as dying in CIA employment in a seven year period.

Mr. Tenet believes that Asia will be the major theater of interest for the next twenty-five years. China is assuming a global power status. India has a thriving economy. Thirty percent of all economic growth world-wide over the next ten years is projected to take place in China. China made promises this past year to invest $130B in Central and South America. To this point, the Chinese military modernization program has outpaced all estimates. Taiwan remains a huge issue for the Chinese, and Mr. Tenet believes that much of the military modernization is aimed at precluding US intervention if and when the PRC elects to "harmonize" Taiwan into the greater whole of the mainland.

Mr. Tenet identified several disturbing trends world-wide. Approximately 1/3 of the population world-wide is infected with TB. There are large, looming issues of inequities in wealth distribution. The top 385M have an annual income equal to the annual income of the bottom 2.3B. In the Persian gulf in particular, 75% of the Saudi population is under 30 years of age, and the unemployment rate in the gulf region is nearly 40%.

The are some bright areas in the Global War on Terrorism (GWoT). Approximately 75% of the central leadership of terrorist organizations identified in September 2001 have been killed, captured, or neutralized. More than 3,400 terrorists have been captured or killed world-wide.

Mr. Tenet highlighted three critical milestones in the GWoT: the elimination of the sanctuary in Afghanistan, the alliance between Pakistan and the US in the GWoT, and Saudi changes in security in a post 9-11 world. The message is that by and large the Muslim world is on the side of the US in the GWoT.

There are some areas of concern in the GWoT as well. Terrorists want WMDs, and they are making attempts to develop or acquire them. The terrorists tend to be extremely agile and understand existing technology as well or better than we do. The terrorists use the internet and other communications means in a world class way. Al Queda has nuclear technology already; they have technicians -- all they need is fissile material.

[WSUCougar]

Interesting, thanks for posting this.

This is pretty remarkable:

Thirty percent of all economic growth world-wide over the next ten years is projected to take place in China. China made promises this past year to invest $130B in Central and South America.