Baseball Auction Poll #1 (With Poll!)

[BishopMVP]

After a few rounds of bidding for the players, we have arrived at the final stage, where FOFC votes on which team is best. There are two polls here, with the top two teams from each advancing for one final poll. I will link to(sometimes extensive) summaries from everyone who sent them to me, and roundups for the other teams. If anyone wants their write-up changed, let me know and I’ll edit it. Voting can be based on whatever criteria you want regarding whether you want career/single season to matter more.

This division consists of:

Oykib - http://dynamic2.gamespy.com/~fof/for...4&postcount=44

Chief Rum - http://dynamic2.gamespy.com/~fof/for...8&postcount=37

Vince - http://dynamic2.gamespy.com/~fof/forums/showpost.php?p=379115&postcount=28

Maple Leafs - http://dynamic2.gamespy.com/~fof/for...12&postcount=3

ntndeacon - http://dynamic2.gamespy.com/~fof/for...6&postcount=36

Suicane75 - http://dynamic2.gamespy.com/~fof/for...7&postcount=13

Booj - http://dynamic2.gamespy.com/~fof/for...1&postcount=15

Sooner333 - http://dynamic2.gamespy.com/~fof/for...6&postcount=46

[Honolulu Blue]

Once again, I'd like to thank Bishop for all the hard work he put into doing this auction and the polls.

And thanks in advance for voting. I'm sure the results will be very interesting.

[oykib]

Yeah.

I've been waiting for the discussion to come outta this.

[oykib]

I rate baseball teams like this:

1. OBP - it has the highest correlation of any 'simple' rate stat to winning on the team level. OBP is not only important because it puts guys on base. It's greatest importance is thatit doesn't squander outs to do it.

2. SLG - when you get guys on you want to be able to drive them all in with one hit. I think it's important to seperate the two because OBP is significantly more valuable than SLG. OPS rates a .270/.300/.600 guy as the equal to a .350/.420/.480 guy. And the second guy is leaps and bounds better.

3. Up-the-middle defense - How solid are your C, SS, 2B, and CF. You can get away with poor or even terrible defenders if these guys are good. If these guys are great, they make almost any pitcher look good. You will never find a bad team with good-to-great defenders at these four spots that is bad if their hitting and pitching are even mediocre.

4. Pitching - K/9, K:BB, HR/9, IP, BB/9 in that order. Nothing else matters.

5. Manager - I'll take the first four before I get him. But the manager is very important. Personally, I think that the clubhouse chemistry guy is overrated. THat's only important when the team is losing. Does he put his players in situations that best suit their ability?
You can verify his skill at doing this by three things.
a) How his bullpen performs. Historically, guys have been in the bullpen because they are not at the top of anybody's want list. If they are the best bullpen, then you are the best manager.

b) How his young players develop. This one ranks right up there with the first one. It's almost 1 and 1a. It takes a good manager to develop young talent. Very often very talented players have a rough go of it at first. Leo Durocher can make Willie Mays put his 0 for 24 start behind him. They can help the future star make the right adjustments to keep his career on the proper path.

c) How many guys have had 'surprising' seasons under him. If there are a lot of castoffs position players doing well under him, then it means that he's properly identified their skills.

Overrated things

I'm a firm believer in DIPS. So I don't go for guile or poise or whatever. Those things can be explained by things above.

The same is true for clutch ability. It's not a quantifiable skill. Derek Jeter and Bernie williams have a lot of big playoff hits because they are good hitters who have been in a lot of playoff games. The same is true for Mickey Mantle, Reggie Jackson, Eddie Collins, and Yogi Berra.

The preceeding goes for Bob Gibson and Babe Ruth as pitchers too.

Speed. It's important. The players on the team should be able to move at average major league speed. But you don't need speed burners. I happen to have a lot on my team because that's how I decided to build it with the manager I targeted. Those are the groceries he liked to cook with. But you can do it with SB if you want to.

RBI. Runs are more important. But in traditional baseball analysis more weight is placed on the RBI total. You can't get an RBI without scoring a run. You can score a run without an RBI.
Not truly overrated. It's obviously important. But I felt the need to editorialize since guys who score 100 runs a season are not valued as highly as guys who drive in 100.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by oykib

4. Pitching - K/9, K:BB, HR/9, IP, BB/9 in that order. Nothing else matters.

No H/9, OBAA or SLGA? And what about Pitches, game/season long and per inning? That matters long-term more than just IP in my mind.

[oykib]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

No H/9, OBAA or SLGA? And what about Pitches, game/season long and per inning? That matters long-term more than just IP in my mind.

You should google DIPS and Voros McCracken. H/9 is passe. It turns out that other than knuckleballers pitchers have very little impact on balls in play.

Defense, the batters, and luck determine the result when the ball is hit. There are some very detailed studies about it.

Basically, a pitcher's job is to strike you out, to not walk you, and to not allow homers. If a guy goes more innings than the next guy it pretty much means he's both more durale and effective than the guy who doesn't.

You could gou with pitches thrown per game, but that doesn't tell you whether the guy used 100 pitches to get through 5 innings or to get through 7 innings.