Moneyball (the book)

[Adamski47]

I just finished this book and really enjoyed it a lot. For those who don't know it's the book about Oakland A's GM Billy Beane and his talent evaluation process.

Who else read this? What did you think?

Care to recommend me another book? The last three I've read were "Recruiting Confidential," Barry Sander's book and "Moneyball."

[Maple Leafs]

I read it (and the wife did too when I was done with it). An interesting book, certainly an eye-opening insight into the life of a GM. I thought it had a bit of an identity crisis over whether it was a biography of Beane or a more general look at pro baseball, and some of it seemed a little fawning, but overall it was quite good.

I'd recommend Pete Rose's new book. Not because it's good. Because it's really, really not, and sheds new light on the guy in all sorts of ways he probably didn't intend.

[lcjjdnh]

I also enjoyed Moneyball very much really changed the way I look at baseball.

As for other book suggestions I personally like a bunch of the other books Michael Lewis has written. Liar's Poker is a great book about his work as an Investment Banker during the 80s. Money Culture is a collection of essays and articles he had written about various economic issues. The New New Thing provided an interesting look into the man who turned Netscape in a billion dollars, Jim Clark and his search for the "new new" technology to grow. I'm currently reading Losers, which is his story as he follows various candidates during the 1996 Republican primary. It's been pretty good so far.

If you're looking for a more sports oriented book, the last one I read was Paper Lion by the late George Plimpton. It's his story about joining the Lions training camp as a third string QB. Also if you're looking for an interesting book, I'd pick up Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract, although it's more of a pick up and flip to a random page book then a read it straight, through.

[Ksyrup]

I'm waiting for it to come out in paperback. I have a moral objection to paying 4 times the price for a hard cover book, when I want the smaller, easier to read and easier to transport, soft cover. Aside from encyclopedias and dictionaries, no books should be hard cover.

[korme]

My Best of Leifer book could be in nothing but large and hard. Nothing else would do.

[Philliesfan980]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I'm waiting for it to come out in paperback. I have a moral objection to paying 4 times the price for a hard cover book, when I want the smaller, easier to read and easier to transport, soft cover. Aside from encyclopedias and dictionaries, no books should be hard cover.

I don't know if you've looked into this avenue, but I always get books used off of Amazon.com. (By the way, I just checked on there, and according to the site, you can get the Paperback book for around $11.50 shipped).


As for the book itself, I think its a good read. Its nice to see the strategies behind a successful small market team. While there's no doubt that Beane is a great general manager, I think he's been pretty lucky with regards to his pitching prospects. If he didn't have those studs at the top of the rotation (and healthy ones at that), that team wouldn't nearly be as good as they are. I guess its easy to say "Well, thats why he's so good, he drafted those pitchers", but some luck has gone into the fact that he basically has 3 #1 pitchers on his team. The best part of his strategy is not going after high schoolers too often. I think we'll see that trend continue with the emergence of guys like Prior who dominate straight out of college.

It will be interesting to see how Beane does this year, he really has gutted his offense in the offseason, and gotten rid of one of the better closers in the game.

[Cuckoo]

Originally Posted by Maple Leafs

An interesting book, certainly an eye-opening insight into the life of a GM. I thought it had a bit of an identity crisis over whether it was a biography of Beane or a more general look at pro baseball, and some of it seemed a little fawning, but overall it was quite good.

Exactly what I would have said. The only thing I'd add is that it almost seems incomplete because you don't know how many of these people's careers will turn out. The book is written in such a way to grandize all of Beane's moves and then just essentially makes assumptions that they'll eventually bear great fruit for the A's. I'd like to read a follow-up to it in twenty years and see whether Jeremy Brown actually turns into any kind of a baseball player.

[daedalus]

Originally Posted by Cuckoo

Exactly what I would have said. The only thing I'd add is that it almost seems incomplete because you don't know how many of these people's careers will turn out. The book is written in such a way to grandize all of Beane's moves and then just essentially makes assumptions that they'll eventually bear great fruit for the A's. I'd like to read a follow-up to it in twenty years and see whether Jeremy Brown actually turns into any kind of a baseball player.

In a lot of ways, though, it doesn't matter. By drafting the way he has (college players who have shown results and will show results again quickly), he has gotten a lot of bargaining chips to play with in trades as well as some players who can fill in when his money hasn't allowed him to retain good players.

Now, I think you do have to take the occasional gamble when the opportunity presents itself. I just hate, as an example of the antithesis of Beane, how the Dodgers draft: purely potential and tools. You look at just about every single Dodgers "top prospect" (in fact, there was one featured in ESPN's "Down on the Farm" recently) and, invariably, you get: great tools, needs polish.

[andy m]

excellent book.

[Honolulu Blue]

Read it. Enjoyed it. I still wonder why the Tigers felt the need to stockpile Billy Beane, the busted prospect; and Billy Bean, the singles hitter, back in '88.

More seriously, I can't understand why more teams don't use the tactics that Mr. Beane does. I guess they'd rather look good and lose, and/or plead poverty.

[Maple Leafs]

Originally Posted by Cuckoo

Exactly what I would have said. The only thing I'd add is that it almost seems incomplete because you don't know how many of these people's careers will turn out. The book is written in such a way to grandize all of Beane's moves and then just essentially makes assumptions that they'll eventually bear great fruit for the A's. I'd like to read a follow-up to it in twenty years and see whether Jeremy Brown actually turns into any kind of a baseball player.

True. Didn't Bonderman (the high school pitcher who causes Beane to fly into a rage in the book's first chapter) make the majors this year and beat the A's in his debut?

[RedKingGold]

Some good books if you could find them:

Glory for Sale (Jim Morgan): Detailed look at not only the Browns move to Baltimore, but behind the scenes of the Carolina + Jacksonville expansion process (St. Louis almost had the expansion team,....not Jacksonville

The One Dollar League: Rise and Fall of the USFL: Out of print and extremely hard to find.,...I paid $150.00 for my copy. An extremely detailed and interesting look of the USFL, its past and present

The Meat Market: All About the NFL Draft: Short and sweet, but the only book that I can find which is all about the NFL draft. It chronicles the 1991 Chicago Bears draft as well as the draft as a whole (1991: The year Rocket Ismail ran to Canada). Outdated, Out of Print,...and I little bit less relevant to the current status of the draft,...but an interesting book all the same.

Type these name titles into Amazon.com search and you should find the exact title, author, availability, etc.

Happy Reading,
Mike

[JasonC23]

I really liked this book, although it didn't break any new ground for me (been reading Baseball Prospectus and Baseball Primer for awhile now). But my favorite part of the book was when Billy Beane kept making fun of intrepid White Sox GM Kenny Williams, and then, after the book came out, Kenny got mad at him. Uh, Kenny? Billy's been in the playoffs 4 years in a row now (or is it 5?); as GM, your best season is 86 wins. Maybe you should, like, stop being mad at him and start, I don't know, emulating him.

[RedKingGold]

Dola,...just did a search on the prices of some of these books on Amazon.com

The Meat Market,...: 1 dollar!

Glory for Sale........: 1.75!

One Dollar League..: 110.00,....well it had to end somewhere

Do yourself a favor and pick up the first two books for only 5 bucks,...its worth it!

Mike

[Cuckoo]

Originally Posted by daedalus

In a lot of ways, though, it doesn't matter. By drafting the way he has (college players who have shown results and will show results again quickly), he has gotten a lot of bargaining chips to play with in trades as well as some players who can fill in when his money hasn't allowed him to retain good players.

I think you're definitely right, but it seemed to me reading the book that Lewis was trying to show some mysterious ability for Beane to spot talent in players that other GMs were missing because of a lack of traditional "skills." I'm just saying that everything in the book as far as the drafting aspect seems only to be conjecture since there isn't really an example of a great success using the method. Sure he may be picking up players to use as bargaining chips, and the book definitely shows his success with guys like Hatteberg, but my only point is that his drafting technique's success is at best unknown at this point, and Lewis writes of it like he can't believe that everyone doesn't see what Beane sees.

I also agree that one shouldn't always draft for potential or tools, but sort of a mix between the two. The book, though, seems incomplete to me in the sense that we don't know the result yet for many of those guys.

I really did enjoy the book, though, and would recommend it. I learned a lot about the process.

[BishopMVP]

As a Red Sox fan, it was interesting to see the talk near the end of the book. Theo Epstein comes in, using the same techniques of high OBP for hitters on a club with a big budget, and an offseason later the Red Sox had the best offensive team in 76 years.

[cuervo72]

I thought it was a great book, and only wish it had been longer. Hmm, that's the last book I've read through, I started Larry Dierker's (which was pretty good), but haven't picked it up for a while.

[Subby]

I use Moneyball as my management bible for FOBL.

[johnnyshaka]

I enjoyed Moneyball as well.

Very ironic in the fact that he focuses on players that are his exact opposite. Takes a very smart man to be able to do that...in my opinion, anyway.

[daedalus]

Originally Posted by Cuckoo

I think you're definitely right, but it seemed to me reading the book that Lewis was trying to show some mysterious ability for Beane to spot talent in players that other GMs were missing because of a lack of traditional "skills." I'm just saying that everything in the book as far as the drafting aspect seems only to be conjecture since there isn't really an example of a great success using the method. Sure he may be picking up players to use as bargaining chips, and the book definitely shows his success with guys like Hatteberg, but my only point is that his drafting technique's success is at best unknown at this point, and Lewis writes of it like he can't believe that everyone doesn't see what Beane sees.

I haven't ready the book yet but I can imagine what you mean (re: "Lewis was trying to show some mysterious ability for Beane to spot talent"). A lot of writers try to make Beane out to be some type of genius. I think he's just intelligent enough to not rely completely on scouts and their tools evaluations. I'm sick and tire of the number of chances that Bobby Witt got because of his 80-rated fastball. As Beane said when he drafted that catcher who can hit but is disliked by scout because of his build, he isn't drafting him to sell jeans.

Originally Posted by Cuckoo

I also agree that one shouldn't always draft for potential or tools, but sort of a mix between the two. The book, though, seems incomplete to me in the sense that we don't know the result yet for many of those guys.

I definitely agree that you can't really evaluate the quality of those draft choices until they've had a chance to develop and either prove that they were good or poor choices. It'll be very, very interesting to re-read the book and re-evaluate some of Beane's draftees in 5 or 10 years. Going back now to the Baseball Americas from 10 years ago and going through their "Top 100 Prospects" list is really funny sometimes.

I think when evaluating Beane and his success, you have to skip certain people like Mulder and Zito (I don't remember if Mulder was his pick or not) because, well, they were both rather no-brainers. (Well, drafting Mulder was a close call. I think he and Ryan Mills were rated about equal at the top of that draft.) It's guys that are well thought of but not so highly rated that has turned out well that makes some of his draft choices interesting. I don't think Hudson or Harden had huge buzzes on them (a la Prior or Zito, although I don't remember if Hudson was his draft choice or not). Or, y'know, taking a guy like Justin Duchscherer that traditional pitching rich organizations like Boston and Texas didn't want and turning him possibly into a servicable pitcher and a commodity.

Originally Posted by Cuckoo

I really did enjoy the book, though, and would recommend it. I learned a lot about the process.

Still all interesting. I definitely want to read that book sometimes.

[lcjjdnh]

For anyone interested, I just read this tidbit it SI today:

Stats, spreadsheets and the relative merits of on-base percentage and slugging percentage don't seem like fodder for a Hollywood blockbuster, but that hasn't stopped Sony Pictures from accquiring the rights to Moneyball The Art of Winning and Unfair Game, the best-selling book by Michael Lews. The film will focus on Billy Beane's roots as a top prospect gone bust before delving into the numbers-based system he now uses to evaluate players as Oakland's GM. Lewis, who has nothing to do with the film, says "I don't have the first idea how they plan to do it. God help them."

Should be interesting to see how they do this. Perhaps this could be the basis for a Charlie Kaufman movie Adaptation 2 .

[Adamski47]

Wow, although I'm expecting disapointment, I'm very excited for this. :-)

[cthomer5000]

Coincidentially, I just finished reading this book last night. I really did find it to be fascinating. While it painted Beane as a total nut-job, it's interesting to see someone actually put a lot of theory into practice - and the level of opposition he appears to face.

with the genie out of the bottle somewhat, I wonder what the future holds for the league and the Oakland A's.

[Ryche]

I'm about half way through the book now, got it from the library so I didn't have to buy it. It's a fascinating look at baseball behind the scenes. It has plenty of theory on talent evaluation, but the evidence is a bit lacking. It does almost seems like the book needed another 5 years before it was published, just to see how Beane's evaluations panned out.

[Franklinnoble]

I just finished the paperback version (which included an brief afterword about how Beane got ripped by the traditional baseball media and other GM's for being an egomaniac... despite the fact that he wasn't the author of the book).

I looked online, and found out that Swisher is doing a pretty good job here in Sacramento for the A's AAA ballclub, but Brown has regressed a bit playing for the AA team in Midland...

I'm wondering if "Moneyball"-style tactics will work with OOTP at all... anyone try this?

[Maple Leafs]

Originally Posted by Franklinnoble

I'm wondering if "Moneyball"-style tactics will work with OOTP at all... anyone try this?

It depends on what you mean.

If you mean the standard "high OBP, lots of walks, not so many SBs" approach that Beane helped popularize, then yes it does work in OOTP to some extent. However, in an online league virtually everyone plays that way so you don't gain much advantage.

If you're referring to the book's deeper story -- how to go against the grain by finding trends and tactics that everyone else is overlooking -- then yes, that's pretty much the key to OOTP success (in online leagues at least).

[Ryan S]

Originally Posted by Subby

I use Moneyball as my management bible for FOBL.

It's working well for you right now.

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by Subby

I use Moneyball as my management bible for FOBL.

Nooooo........I wouldn't have guessed that.

(I'd use it too, except that I don't have the personnel for it...doing my best to keep tabs on the "Beane Count" though)

[lynchjm24]

[quote=Franklinnoble]I just finished the paperback version (which included an brief afterword about how Beane got ripped by the traditional baseball media and other GM's for being an egomaniac... despite the fact that he wasn't the author of the book).

QUOTE]

There is a new book called Chasing Steinbrenner about Theo Epstein and JP Riccardi. I don't remember who wrote it off the top of my head, but Tracy Ringolsby in one of his columns is all over the Blue Jays for their bad start and their GM who put his own book out.

It's hard to believe that WRITERS can't comprehend the difference between the author of a book and the subject of a book.

[Desnudo]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

As a Red Sox fan, it was interesting to see the talk near the end of the book. Theo Epstein comes in, using the same techniques of high OBP for hitters on a club with a big budget, and an offseason later the Red Sox had the best offensive team in 76 years.

And he landed the Greek God of Walks, Kevin Youklis, who's pretty much an instant cult hero and fan favorite with possibly the best nickname in history.

[lynchjm24]

Originally Posted by Desnudo

And he landed the Greek God of Walks, Kevin Youklis, who's pretty much an instant cult hero and fan favorite with possibly the best nickname in history.

Kevin Youkilis was drafted in the 8th round in 2001 long before Theo Epstein was GM.

[Desnudo]

Originally Posted by lynchjm24

Kevin Youkilis was drafted in the 8th round in 2001 long before Theo Epstein was GM.

You're right. I remembered the book talking about him as an example of the type of player Billy Beane likes to draft against the traditional scouting model. Still the best nickname I've ever heard of.

[rufusjonz]

Great book! Read the whole thing in like 4 hours yesterday. It validates the simulation geeks like us -- we may actually know more about running a team than the so-called experts.

It's amazing how long it took the Bill Jamesian analysis to make its way into the old boy network of baseball, and how much resistance they still have to it, despite its obvious successes and logical quantitative measures. God how teams like the Brewers and Reds havent been using this method and are so against it is dumbfounding to me.

Are other sports, especially football, ripe for this kind of management? I'm thinking of teams who draft QBs in the first round despite such a pitiful success rate etc.

I think European Soccer is ripe for more modern management techniques too. They hardly do any statistical analysis of players over there, OPRA is one of the only companies doing it i think -- things like passes completed, etc.

[andy m]

football (or soccer as it was referred to) does not lend itself to statistical analysis, as it is too free flowing. sure, there are things that can be looked at, but most of the stats that have been knocking around are pretty much useless and don't tell you much.

[Huckleberry]

As I've said before, this kind of analysis is best suited for baseball for one reason:

Baseball is a game played in series.

Football, basketball, soccer, etc. are all games played in parallel. Each player has to do his own job at the same time that the other players are doing theirs in order for a successful outcome. Because of that, it's incredibly more difficult to isolate each player's contribution to each play. In baseball, you can quite easily isolate each player's contribution.