CPU Dynasty Report

[Carligula]

Now for something somewhat different...

I remember somebody doing this on the old board - tracking a team's personnel decisions over several years. If I remember correctly he thought it showed the CPU teams aren't quite as poorly-run as we sometimes accuse them of being. I thought I'd try it again (hopefully avoiding the temptation to go into too much numbing detail) and see if the AI has been tuned up any in this version.

I'll follow the Packers, who just finished the 2015 season and appear to be a dynasty in need of some reloading. I didn’t realize it until starting this, but the Packers won the division four years in a row going into this season, and threepeated in the 2012-2014 Super Bowls, going 14-2, 13-3, and 11-5 in the regular season. They slipped to 8-8 in 2015, with 330 points scored/272 points allowed.

Roster strength at the end of 2015:
QB: 32/48
RB: 93/35
FB: 33/76
TE: 64/60
WR: 54/80
C: 14/30
G: 37/57
T: 50/48
P: 62/0
K: 63/0
DE: 32/27
DT: 44/38
LB: 71/37
CB: 0/34
S: 37/59

Stat leaders:
QB K.C. Henry: 2,584 yards, 60.0%, 12/9 TD/INT, 78.7 rating
RB Leroy Sampson: 301/1607, 15 TDs
WR Sam Zaccardelli: 69/871, 6 TDs
WR Danny Nalen: 71/786, 3 TDs
C Derrick Gunn: 22.8%, 3 sacks
G Warren Buckner: 32.8%, 5 sacks
G Mitch Galloway: 40.0%, 1 sack
T Cole Alexander: 33.3%, 8 sacks
T Alfred Nelson: 34.6%, 12 sacks
DE Lionel de Groh: 30 tackles, 11.5 sacks
NT Russell Slater: 41 tackles, 9.5 sacks
DE Pete Stewart: 39 tackles, 9 sacks
LB Lamont Givgore: 91 tackles
LB Gary Warren: 74 tackles, 2 sacks
S Percy Stanford: 78 tackles, 5 INTs
S Jamie Larry: 80 tackles, 2 INTs
CB Justin Castillo: 6 INTs, 35.7 PDQ
CB Michael Epps: 0 INTs, 20.2 PDQ

Team stats:
Rushing: 4.5/3.9 (average 3.8)
Passing: 5.8/6.7 (average 6.5)
Turnovers: 19/23 (+4)

They’re $4 million (?) over the cap at the end of 2015, but longtime backup QB Moe Epperson, the highest-paid player on the team, is eating up $12.98 million of that; his contract is up and he’s Demanding a Trade. WR Dennis Conley, a 7-year vet who was All-Pro all of their Super Bowl seasons, badly dislocated his knee this year and may retire. Idolized RB Sampson, the reigning Offensive Player of the Year, is at the end of his rookie contract; he has high loyalty though.

[Carligula]

2016 preseason:

It didn’t look like his ratings were hit too badly by the knee blowout, but WR Conley did retire after putting up three of the top-20 receiving yard totals in his seven seasons. They also lost NT Slater (13-year vet) and LB Warren (14-year vet); I don’t know if they spent all that time with Green Bay. They’re not taking any chances with RB Sampson, putting the franchise tag on him.

The Packers hold onto their coach/scout combo. 61-year-old coach Cole Gooding has the second-best record in the league with a .629 winning percentage, and is a Exc offensive playcaller with no real weaknesses. Scout Bryant Ellison, also 61 years old, is only Fair in judging young talent, but Very Good in all positions except QB and WR.

Goint into free agency the Packers have only 17 players under contract, and $67.8 million to work with. They renegotiated five contracts to free up some more cap space. TE Trent Correia, a solid 11-year starter; WR Zaccardelli, a 16-year vet (12 with the Packers), the league’s all-time receiving yards and touchdowns leader; both starting guards; and LB Anthony Van Pelt, a 6th-year player with great ratings but mediocre stats are the key unrestricted free agents. My scout lists their needs as 1) starting cornerback, 2) starting defensive tackle, and 3) starting wide receiver.

At the start of FA they resign G Galloway, pretty much ensuring he’ll end his excellent career in Green Bay. They’re going after TE Correia and WR Zaccardelli, and put in a big bid for Columbia’s tackle Walter Ameche. I don’t quite understand that. They’ve got three tackles on the roster now taking up $21 million; one has good ratings and stats, and the other two are OK at worst. They might be setting themselves up for a trade.

They get TE Correia and WR Zaccardelli back. T Ameche decided to go to Philly, and they shift their bid to DT Percy Banks, who’s been solid for the Browns. Now this seems a little questionable – they gave $58 million over 4 years to backup QB Moe Epperson. He’s got a 74.2 career rating, with more picks than touchdowns. Not to mention their other backup QB is making $8.87 million this year, has three more years on his contract, and is getting Disgruntled. And as if that wasn’t enough, they’ve entered the bidding (to the tune of $11 million a year) for Dolphins starting QB Andy Dawkins. WTF???

Week 7: they get DT Banks in the fold, filling a big hole. They appear to be hedging their bets on keeping franchised RB Sampson, offering $22M/4 years for their own mediocre backup RB Thomas Mathis. Dawkins, after putting up an 86.3 rating last year in just his second season, went to Washington to carry a clipboard behind not only last year’s 2nd-team All-Pro, but also the #1 overall pick of two years ago, who looks like a star in the making. Whatever…

They lost starting G Buckner, but reserve Wesley Fenner should be able to replace him. LB Van Pelt went to the Eagles; they now only have one LB under contract. They resigned RFA WR Nalen, who stepped in nicely for Conley last season. Thomas Mathis went to the Panthers, and they’re apparently going to let RB Sampson get the franchise contract; they have $7.7M going into the draft, so that shouldn’t be a problem.

The draft: My scout now sees their needs as 1) starting cornerback, 2) starting wide receiver, and 3) starting linebacker. I think they’re OK at wideout, but we’ll see what they do. They use the 19th pick of the first round on G Grant Terrell. Can’t argue with that… Fenner might be pressed as a starter, and my scout thinks Terrell is solid – 41/90, 36/77, 53. In the second round they take LB Donny Debussy. A need pick, but looks pretty good. Their 3rd rounder is DE Todd Ellis, a solid 3rd DE who could start eventually. The rest of their picks are strictly backup material – the picturesquely- (and oxymoronically-)named CB Dusty Rivers, DE Adrian Rossini, WR Patrick Watkins, and CB Gilbert Devine. A competent draft, I’d say – at least they didn’t take another QB.

As it turns out they couldn’t afford franchised RB Leroy Sampson, leaving a big hole there with two career backups who don’t look good enough to start. After training camp they offer me a mediocre backup TE and a 3rd-round pick for my only reliable CB, a nearly-maxed out 10-year vet who I just resigned with an $11 million bonus. No thanks, guys. Their 1st-round G busted slightly, and the last three picks didn’t make the team. They had to sign 17 (!) rookie, 2nd- and 3rd-year free agents to fill up the roster.

Current roster strength, compared to last year:
QB: 36/29, 32/48
RB: 9/50, 93/35
FB: 27/62, 33/76
TE: 60/40, 64/60
WR: 11/96, 54/80
C: 11/9, 14/30
G: 26/100, 37/57
T: 50/50, 50/48
P: 64/0, 62/0
K: 12/0, 63/0
DE: 34/56, 32/27
DT: 66/66, 44/38
LB: 36/15, 71/37
CB: 10/71, 0/34
S: 36/62, 37/59

Cohesion: 73/86/65/80

I think they’re going to have serious problems this year without Sampson, unless their O﷓line is good enough to make the scrubs look good. They’ve got some payroll-allocation problems, with three quarterbacks among the five highest-paid players. Depth is nice, but still…

2015 season: 9-7; 296 points scored/284 points allowed

They made it back to the playoffs, losing in the wild-card round.

Stat leaders:
QB K.C. Henry: 2,707 yards, 57.9%, 19/14 TD/INT, 74.6 rating (a familiar dilemma for me… not good enough to win with, not bad enough to dump and take the cohesion damage. He’s got good ratings, and does have one great season to his credit.)
RB Henry Sellers: 229/954, 7 TDs
WR Sam Zaccardelli: 70/727, 4 TDs
WR Jimmy Whitney: 47/532, 7 TDs
C Lorenzo Thomas: 23.8%, 6 sacks
G Grant Terrell: 12.5%, 3 sacks (terrible rookie season for the 1st-rounder)
G Mitch Galloway: 23.8%, 9 sacks
T Cole Alexander: 29.4%, 7 sacks
T Alfred Nelson: 42.5%, 4 sacks
DT Percy Banks: 35 tackles, 7 sacks (good FA acquisition)
NT Russell Slater: 41 tackles, 9.5 sacks (13)
DE Pete Stewart: 32 tackles, 6.5 sacks
LB Lamont Givgore: 101 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 2 INTs, 1st-team All-Pro
LB Donny Debussy: 67 tackles, 3 sacks (OK rookie year)
S Percy Stanford: 63 tackles, 1 INT
S Jamie Larry: 75 tackles, 2 INTs
CB Justin Castillo: 2 INTs, 25.1 PDQ (played down to his ratings after a solid rookie season)
CB Michael Epps: 6 INTs, 37.1 PDQ, 3 TD returns, 1st-team All-Pro

Team stats:
Rushing: 3.8/3.8 (average 3.8) (losing Sampson really hurt)
Passing: 5.5/6.6 (average 6.4)
Turnovers: 27/29 (+2)

Only 3 starters will be unrestricted FAs next year, so if they can clear out some cap room they should be able to reload quickly. I would work on the defensive line if I were in charge; we’ll see what they do.

[Carligula]

2017 preseason:

A couple of key retirements this year for the Packers. WR Sam Zaccardelli’s Hall of Fame career is over, after 960 catches, 13,889 yards, and a league-record 84 touchdowns. G Mitch Galloway also hung ‘em up, currently #12 on the career Key Run Blocks list.

There’s an expansion draft this year, and to their credit, the Packers are trying to use it to clear out some deadwood. Third QB Ray Threats ($10.57M) and fill-in RB Henry Sellers ($9.63M) are out there for an unwary GM. Two solid starters are also exposed – T Nelson and S Stanford, as well as a backup TE. It doesn’t quite work out like they were hoping - Stanford and Nelson both go to Omaha, and they’ve still got almost $6 million in bonus tied up in Threats and Sellers.

After a bunch of renegotiations, the Packers go into free agency with $53.2 million in spending money. Getting Threats down from $10.57M to $3.51M helped a lot. My scout thinks they need 1) a starting G, 2) a starting CB, and 3) a starting RB. They bring back their longtime TE Correia ($11M, 3 years) and good young CB Epps ($27M, 3 years), go hard after the Chargers’ run-stuffing DE Earl Warfield ($37M, 4 years), and put in a bid to retain mediocre, trade-demanding, lifetime backup T Louis Chiu ($35M, 4 years – oh, the humanity!). They get Warfield, who should help matters, and also resign G Fenner ($3.4M, 2 years). In Week 5 Chiu recognizes that his ship has come in and signs; in all fairness, they do need a tackle, and he’s played OK in backup duty. They are now chasing two Browns – WR Carlton Coles, a 13-year vet who would be their best WR ($24M, 4 years) and solid center Fish Head Boyd ($9M, 2 years); Cleveland keeps them both. They take a few weeks off, then sign a backup T, a kicker, CB Kirk Saldana ($16M, 3 years), who’s not much but is better than what they have, and WR Alex Wilde ($9M, 2 years). They lost aging S Jamie Larry to Topeka; no real loss there.

Their needs are now listed as 1) starting G, 2) starting S, and 3) starting RB. They hold the 25th pick in each round.

1st: DE Ernie Matheny (looks good, but low endurance)
2nd: WR Chester Baylor (so-so)
3rd: T Josh Cole (my scout doesn’t think much of him)
4th: WR Preston Willis (ditto)
5th: G Glenn Gerhardt (a steal; could have gone as early as the second round)
6th: S Cole Osborne (backup)
7th: S Brian Ramirez (backup to the backup)

I guess they’re content to go with last year’s starting RB, who did average 4.1 yards per carry. We’ll see how the draft turns out.

They got through training camp OK, in fact WR Baylor improved quite a bit. They had to cut two players to fill up the roster – newly resigned G Fenner and DE Lionel de Groh, who’s missed only two starts in his 12-year career, but looks finished to me.

Roster strength:
QB: 46/50
RB: 5/45
FB: 47/79
TE: 48/62
WR: 21/57
C: 20/32
G: 13/92
T: 44/59
P: 64/0
K: 89/0
DE: 61/89
DT: 59/57
LB: 36/46
CB: 33/60
S: 1/21

Cohesion: 65/73/65/51

2017 season:
Green Bay is in definite decline… 6-10, 368 points scored, 385 allowed.

Stat leaders:
QB K.C. Henry: 2,968 yards, 56.5%, 23/13 TD/INT, 80.8 rating. It doesn’t look like he’s the problem after all.
RB Arnie Abrams: 106/586, 7 TDs. All the Packers’ running backs this year were undrafted… which doesn’t mean they’re all bad. The star RB they franchised and then couldn’t hold on to, Leroy Sampson, was picked up in midyear last season by Washington and ran 98 times for 753 yards, a 7.6 average (!). He moved on to expansion Des Moines this season and was held to 921 yards.
WR Danny Nalen: 86/963, 10 TDs
WR Chester Baylor: 62/827, 7 TDs (a fine second-round draft pick)
C Justin Hogrefe: 31.9%, 2 sacks
G Grant Terrell: 31.0%, 6 sacks (much better for last year’s first-round pick)
G Lewis Boone: 26.3%, 3 sacks
T Cole Alexander: 35.0%, 7 sacks
T Louis Chiu: 34.0%, 10 sacks
DT Percy Banks: 28 tackles, 3 sacks (hmmm… maybe that wasn’t a good signing after all)
DE Earl Warfield: 27 tackles, 15.5 sacks (this year’s big FA acquisition)
LB Lamont Givgore: 93 tackles, 2 sacks
LB Donny Debussy: 72 tackles, 2.5 sacks
S Archie Bruns: 75 tackles, 6 INTs (good cheap FA)
S Cole Osborne: 62 tackles, 1 INT
CB Kirk Saldana: 52 tackles, 2 INTs, 22.8 PDQ (it would be cruel to suggest he got all those tackles chasing down receivers he couldn’t cover…cruel, but accurate)
CB Michael Epps: 0 INTs, 21.7 PDQ (seems to have an Elwayesque even year-odd year thing going on)

Team stats:
Rushing: 3.9/3.9 (average 3.7)
Passing: 6.4/7.1 (average 6.5) (if they could get a secondary, I think they’d be in good shape)
Turnovers: 33/17 (-16) (ouch!)

LB Givgore is the only established starter heading into free agency, and TE Correia is the only possible retiree. With a decent QB, a good receiving corps, some impact defenders, and a high draft pick or two, they should be able to turn it around pretty quickly. I’m curious to see if the AI can figure out a way to do it.