How big is this market?

[Northwood_DK]

Any idea how many copies Solecismic and .400Software hope/plan to sell? The market for a text football-sim cannot be that big.

[FBPro]

I think that it is plenty big for 2 different games. Especially with the popularity of the NFL now days.

[Northwood_DK]

I agree and will most likely buy both games. But I was looking for a number. Will it sell 500, 5000 or 50.000 copies?

[Schmidty]

Originally posted by Northwood_DK
I agree and will most likely buy both games. But I was looking for a number. Will it sell 500, 5000 or 50.000 copies?

8,578

[WSUCougar]

Originally posted by Schmidty
8,578

Come on, Schmidty, be realistic. It'll easily break that mythical 8,600 barrier.

[Marc Vaughan]

IMHO the market for text sims is potentially huge in America, its just not 'broken' into the mainstream yet.

An example of this is management games in Europe, for years they were relatively low-key, CM96-97 for instance only sold around 100,000 copies. However as time has progressed because they're the type of games which you find yourself playing even when you're older the userbase keeps growing.

Once CM's sales hit around the 200-250,000 mark I think the game got through the 'geek' barrier where it was looked down upon and we've been fairly successful since.

I expect a similar thing to happen eventually in America with management games, it'll take time but imho it will definitely happen.

(and yeah before you ask, I'm willing to put SI where my mouth is - thats one of the reasons we've adopted Riz and EHM into the company )

[Northwood_DK]

Thanks for the answer Marc.

Any thoughts why the sport-text-sim market in the US and Europe is that different? Can you see a difference in how we play games in US>
Maybe I am way off but I have a feeling that FOF2004 and TPF will not sell anything near the 100,000 copies you call low-key.

[ice4277]

It seems to me that there is a bigger market in Europe for strategic games, which is one big reason I think they are more successful across the pond.

[Ben E Lou]

This is a guess, but I'd assume that Solecismic games sell in the 1,500-5,000 range. It is a one-man company without a ton of overhead (I assume).

[mckerney]

Originally posted by Marc Vaughan
Once CM's sales hit around the 200-250,000 mark I think the game got through the 'geek' barrier where it was looked down upon and we've been fairly successful since.

So... you're saying were geeks?

[cthomer5000]

Originally posted by Northwood_DK
I agree and will most likely buy both games. But I was looking for a number. Will it sell 500, 5000 or 50.000 copies?

I would guess 3,000 copies.

[Bonegavel]

my guess is between 7,000 - 10,000 units. I don't think Jim could stay in business with any less. That is under the estimate that he is making around $8-12 per sale.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by Bonegavel
my guess is between 7,000 - 10,000 units. I don't think Jim could stay in business with any less. That is under the estimate that he is making around $8-12 per sale.

Why would he make so little per sale?

[cthomer5000]

Originally posted by Bonegavel
my guess is between 7,000 - 10,000 units. I don't think Jim could stay in business with any less. That is under the estimate that he is making around $8-12 per sale.

I'd guess about $25 per sale. The online distribution thing will probably work out better for him too. I'm sure the cost of working with ViaTech will be significantly less than the cost of printing CD's. So he can probably price the game 5-10 dollars less and still take in more money.

[Bee]

Originally posted by SkyDog
This is a guess, but I'd assume that Solecismic games sell in the 1,500-5,000 range. It is a one-man company without a ton of overhead (I assume).

Those are the numbers that have always been thrown around before. I would guess they are still accurate.

[FBPro]

I would think they are more along the lines of 7,000+.

[Honolulu Blue]

This is always a fun topic to speculate on. Thanks for the figures, Marc, though I disagree with you about how large the text sim market in the US is and will be.

I'm guessing that SkyDog is accurate with his estimates of the non-EA versions of FOF, though I would say that the higher end is closer to the truth (i.e. more likely 3,000-5,000). I would further guess that TCY has sold more than that, and the EA versions sold most of all.

I would further guess that .400 is looking for sales north of 5,000 for TPF.

As far as how much Jim makes from each game, that depends on how you define it. His biggest expense is almost sure to be taxes, which figure to take up 25-50% of each dollar he makes. The CDs cost maybe $3 each, including setup costs. I don't know how much ViaTech will take, but I'm sure they take a cut. Jim has hired temporary employees in the past, and may or may not have permanent employees. They have to be paid, whatever their status. Then there's the office/warehouse space, artwork (yes, there IS artwork in Jim's games), Web hosting expenses, ISP expenses, office supplies, postage, and everything else.

For a per unit net margin, Bonegavel's estimate of $8-$12 per game seems reasonable. For 5,000 copies at $10 a copy, that would yield $50,000 after taxes - not bad, but not great either.

[Marc Vaughan]

Originally posted by ice4277
It seems to me that there is a bigger market in Europe for strategic games, which is one big reason I think they are more successful across the pond.

In my opinion there is little difference in the potential demographics or taste for strategy games between the European and American markets* - however generally speaking it requires one particular game to 'break' a new genre before it is accepted and the mass market seriously consider a game.

Once a game has 'broken' through then publishers will be more willing to back the game with promotion, magazines will be more willing to review them etc. - which in turn drives sales, which means more people play the game, which mean more people recommend it to their friends ... repeat until (hopefully) the game and sports-sims generally are a success

*In you compare the market percentages of 'general' strategy games between Europe and America they are generally very similar.
In fact American sports fans are more 'stats' orientated than European ones and so in theory should find more appeal in strategic games which cater for this sort of thing much more than 'action' games.

PS. I did a Business/Economics/Maths degree before my computing one, I apologise for rambling on but this sort of thing interests me ...

[Bonegavel]

Originally posted by SkyDog
Why would he make so little per sale?

I think I was improperly low-balling it because of all the costs normally involved in such an endeavour. Advertising is the big one, and, come to think of it, I don't think Jim advertises. I also figured that ViaTech takes a pretty healthy percentage (probably 20-30%).

Hey Jim, can you disclose your financials for the year?

[sabotai]

If I remember correctly...and I probably don't....Jim said he started with 2000 CDs of TCY. After that batch went through, he put it up for download. He said recently said that download purchases of TCY just passed CD purchases. So that would make it 4000 copies of TCY sold.

[Primal]

Originally posted by Bonegavel
I also figured that ViaTech takes a pretty healthy percentage (probably 20-30%).

I think 20-30% would be very high for that service. My company sells a lot of Software and Components and we ended up setting up our own licensing server. After the initial cost (which isn’t too much) it's rather cheap to maintain. The licensing server works a bit like the MS Office / Windows activation so it’s not exactly like ViaTech.

If that's ViaTech's take, I'm in the wrong business.

[Bonegavel]

Well, it may be comparing apples to oranges, but one pdf download service I am thinking of using takes 20%, and that is just a plain old pdf. Could just be the specialty of the market it covers.

[Ksyrup]

I'm astounded that so few people buy these types of games. Then again, I'm astounded by the low sales figures for some of my favorite bands, as well. When you think of the millions of people in this country alone, the idea that as few as several thousand of them have the same taste in games or music as you do... it's just a strange feeling.

[Franklin]

Well, Jim is probably legally prohibited from discussing the details of his contract with Via, and I doubt he'll volunteer how many units he's shipped, so this is all rampant speculation.

Still, I'd guess that Jim sells at least 2 or 3 thousand copies of his games. I'd be shocked if it were more than 7 or 8 thousand. If it is, I'm going to start taking my game programming self-education a lot more seriously.

[Riggins44]

I'm going to throw in my guess for the next version: 2155 (within one year)

[Mac Howard]

I very much agree with Marc Vaughan on this (is this a first? ) that you only need the breakthrough for something like FOF into the mainstream for it to become a genuine sales success. The soccer management game hasn't always sold 100,000 + copies. From 1982 until 1992 they were sold on very much the same principle as FOF is now and sold typically 2000 games in a year.

It was only in 1992, when the Collyer bothers persuaded a mainstream publisher to put CM into the retail stores, that the numbers soared. I understand that the Collyers had a very hard time persuading Domark that there really was a market for this type of game which at this time was the victim of "like watching paint dry" half page reviews from a graphics obsessed computer games press. Even then the first CM was described as "the worst game ever to pass throiugh this office". You know for yourselves that that has to be the most ignorent and imperceptive review of all time - CM went to the top of the Gallup sales charts within 3 weeks and now sells in excess of 250,000 copies!

I think a second point is that the "soccer management game" isn't as extreme as what you guys call the "text sim". It's much more of a role playing game than a stats analysis and manipulation game. I think a gridiron or baseball game that could make the same sort of impact as CM in the mainstream world needs to soften the stats approach a little to get a wider appeal but, as the reaction of fans on the forum to CM proves, such a game can still be a considerable challenge and needn't cause you guys to turn away from a game you consider has been dumbed down.

[ice4277]

I guess when I made my comment, I wasn't really speaking of sports sims in general, but all sims; more cerebral games like EU, for example, seem to be extremely popular in Europe, whereas their more fast-based, action-based equivalents are the ones that get the bulk of the sales here.

But as both Marc and Mac state, there is definitely room for a breakthrough of sorts here. However, I really do feel that for that to happen, in the sports game environment at least, the game will have to incorporate some sort of graphical element to really garner mass market appeal, something along the lines of the old Sierrra games.

[cuervo72]

I know times were different, but I wonder how many copies the original MicroLeague Baseball sold...

[yabanci]

I was just on amazon.com and noticed they sell football mogul there and it has a sales rank of 689. I wonder how many units of it are being sold.

[Lucky Jim]

I agree with Marc V and otheres that there is massive potential for sales of sim sports games here in the US. We do need a breakthrough game. And it needs to incorporate some graphical elements like ice mentions above. One of the great things about CM is that it's got incredible depth to the simulation and still has enough eye candy in the interface to not completely turn off someone with a casual interest. I've played FOF for years and years and I think the biggest barrier for a lot of people is getting past that 'dork' factor mentioned above. I've got plenty of friends that I know would love the games, and many that have become more addicted than myself, but watching me stare at what looks like an excel spreadsheet for hours swearing at myself isn't all that enticing to your run of the mill mentally stable person.

It's really ridiculous when I think of how all my roommates are playing Champ Man now, none of whom really knew jack crap about soccer before playing, because watching me play got them hooked. The interface just looked less intimidating I guess. And I understand that to a certain extent. I think text simmers as a rule tend to throw their noses up at pretty graphics, myself included, but it's going to take a little of that to access enough customers to really make a great game possible. I'll always have a special place in my heart for FOF games and will probably always buy them, but they don't get close to Champ (not that they should even) and they won't simply because it's too much for one man. Maybe TPF has the potential to be a step in the right direction, but I think we'll all have to wait and see.

I think things would be a lot different right now if there hadn't been that management turnover or whatever happened at EA back around the FOF2001 days. I know we talk about the EA times as the bad old days, and they were, but my understanding was that there were people prepared to invest resources in the FOF series there and those people were replaced. FOF might have been our breakthrough game if that hadn't happened, who knows. As it stands though, I don't know what needs to happen. It may be some time before someone like an EA or a Sierra puts their feet into these waters, and I'm sure most people here don't want that. I guess ideally Marc V would offer Jim a job (pretty please) and SI can start making american football games...

Oh and yeah, about 3,000 to 5,000 sales I'd guess for FOF games...

[azjoe_02]

Originally posted by Lucky Jim
I've got plenty of friends that I know would love the games, and many that have become more addicted than myself, but watching me stare at what looks like an excel spreadsheet for hours swearing at myself isn't all that enticing to your run of the mill mentally stable person.

LOL!!!! This reminds me of the time I tried to explain FOF to my wife and how interesting it is. She just said "ohh, OK". Then my son came in the room and looked at the screen and asked what I was doing, when I said playing a football game, he said "where are the players", I said right here and pointed at a player card and he promptly said "that looks boring" and walked out.

[PilotMan]

Originally posted by azjoe_02
LOL!!!! This reminds me of the time I tried to explain FOF to my wife and how interesting it is. She just said "ohh, OK". Then my son came in the room and looked at the screen and asked what I was doing, when I said playing a football game, he said "where are the players", I said right here and pointed at a player card and he promptly said "that looks boring" and walked out.

Well, after that my geek meter went off the charts.