A look back at the Stewart-Kielty trade.

[ISiddiqui]

The latest Jayson Stark article (about the AL MVP) actually talks about this a bit. Apparently since the deal:

Shannon Stewart. Since he arrived in Minnesota, all the Twins have done is go 44-20, the best record in baseball. And that's no accident. Shannon Stewart changed this lineup and changed this team. It's that simple.

Since the day he got to Minnesota, he leads all AL leadoff men in batting average (.324) and on-base percentage (.390).

It seems that Minny knew what they were doing. Toronto could still ultimatly end up with the better of the deal, but nice move by Minny and boy did it pay off!

[bbor]

Stewart is in line for a HUGE raise next season.Perhaps in the 7-9 mil range.SanDiego perhaps?

Kielty certainly cooled off after his first week in Toronto,but i still think he can be a solid OF for the Jays.

Still sad to see Shan go though.

[mckerney]

Working out great for the Twins (who clinched tonight on their 10t straight victory), and Stewart has become a fan favorite with most everyone around here wanting Pohlad to bring him back next year.

[bbor]

I can't see Minny being able to afford him unless they loosen the purse strings

[daedalus]

Wouldn't this count as case where both sides got what they wanted?

Minnesota needed fresh blood to re-energize the team. Done.

Toronto wanted to get something back for Stewart who was going to be allowed to walk. Done.

[General Mike]

Originally posted by daedalus
Wouldn't this count as case where both sides got what they wanted?

Minnesota needed fresh blood to re-energize the team. Done.

Toronto wanted to get something back for Stewart who was going to be allowed to walk. Done.

I agree. The only thing you can argue about for Toronto, is whether they could have gotten more than Kielty from another team, such as the Dodgers, Oakland or whoever else was looking for an OFer at the time. If you look at what Oakland gave up to acquite Jose Guillen, Aaron Harang and Joe Valentine, for a team thats looking to add young pitchers, they might have been able to get more. I'm not gonna tell anyone that Kielty isn't a good player tho. If the Mets could have gotten him for Jeromy Burnitz, I would have been very happy.

[Alan T]

Originally posted by General Mike
I agree. The only thing you can argue about for Toronto, is whether they could have gotten more than Kielty from another team, such as the Dodgers, Oakland or whoever else was looking for an OFer at the time. If you look at what Oakland gave up to acquite Jose Guillen, Aaron Harang and Joe Valentine, for a team thats looking to add young pitchers, they might have been able to get more. I'm not gonna tell anyone that Kielty isn't a good player tho. If the Mets could have gotten him for Jeromy Burnitz, I would have been very happy.

I had pretty much thought they had been shopping Stewart for a year or two without any offers close to their liking. I might be incorrect on that, but everytime I turned I used to hear Stewart rumors and always assumed where there was smoke, there's fire. If that is indeed the case, I believe they might have felt this was going to be the best deal they would get due to the lack of any other interest.

[Ksyrup]

He's certainly been great, but I think it's a bit of an oversimplification (which appears to be Jayson Stark's forte) to suggest that Stewart is the only reason this team is where it is. I think the pitching has made as big a difference as Stewart has.

Pre-All-Star break, the Twins ERA was 4.74 and the offense was scoring 4.63 runs per game. Post-All-Star break, their ERA is 3.89 and they are scoring 5.43 runs per game. If the pitching hadn't improved, this team would, at best, still be fighting for the division. Likewise, had Stewart not performed like he has, same thing. But it was the combination, not Stewart alone.

[oykib]

That's Jayson Stark with his funny stats again. Derek Jeter spent a large amount of time batting leadoff since the all-star break. Isn't he batting more than .324 since then. Since he was batting .325 last time I checked and was well under .300 before the break, I would assume so.

I would say that moving Santana into the rotation and Radke getting somewhat straightened out ( along with the ChiSox choking) had more to do with it than Stewarts very good, but not stellar, play.

[cuervo72]

Originally posted by oykib

I would say that moving Santana into the rotation and Radke getting somewhat straightened out ( along with the ChiSox choking) had more to do with it than Stewarts very good, but not stellar, play.

I never understood exacly why Santana wasn't in the rotation to begin with.

And something that bugged my from a fantasy standpoint, I don't understand why Jimy Williams insists on taking playing time away from Morgan Ensberg...

[Ksyrup]

Because Jimy Williams feels useless unless he's platooning SOMEONE.

Back on the Twins, I looked at pre AS break and post AS break OPS for the guys with the most ABs. Guzman (.628 to .726), Jones (.788 to .812), Mientkiewicz (.819 to .887), Pierzynski (.809 to .833), and Rivas (.686 to .707) all had increases in their OPS from the 1st half to the 2nd half. Stewart was an increase over Kielty (.790 to .862). Torii Hunter stayed about the same (.767 to .763).

The only guys to drop were Koskie, who was injured (.885 to .743), Mohr (.763 to .663), and LeCroy (.845 to .809). And Mohr and LeCroy don't even total 350 ABs each for the season, so the main guys in the lineup either improved or stayed the same.

So it seems to me that Stewart was a part of a larger picture. Sure, I'll give him some credit for "veteran leadership," but I don't think he's such a big impact player that he is responsible for the improvement nearly every other guy in the lineup has shown.

[Maple Leafs]

Originally posted by General Mike
If you look at what Oakland gave up to acquite Jose Guillen, Aaron Harang and Joe Valentine, for a team thats looking to add young pitchers, they might have been able to get more.

I think it's safe to assume that if they could have got more from Oakland, they would have. Ricciardi has Beane on speed-dial, so I'm sure he knew exactly whar the A's would part with.

The other teams, who knows. It's still too bad the Mets fired Phillips, it would have been nice to see JP work some panic trades with them.

[ISiddiqui]

Wouldn't this count as case where both sides got what they wanted?

True dat. Many at the time called this a desperation move by Minny and they were getting ripped off by Riccardi and the Jays. It didn't exactly turn out that way .

[Hammer755]

Originally posted by ISiddiqui
True dat. Many at the time called this a desperation move by Minny and they were getting ripped off by Riccardi and the Jays. It didn't exactly turn out that way .

It's still too early to tell who got the better of this deal. If the Twins get knocked out of the playoffs early then Stewart, as anticipates, bolts Minnesota for a big contract, and if Kielty turns out to be a solid major league player, as many believe he will, than the balance swings to the Jays.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally posted by oykib Derek Jeter spent a large amount of time batting leadoff since the all-star break. Isn't he batting more than .324 since then. Since he was batting .325 last time I checked and was well under .300 before the break, I would assume so.

Looks like Stark may have been on or at least not far off.

Jeter has 87 AB's at lead-off all season, hitting .310 in those.

Since the A-S break, he's been hot enough but only has 39 AB's at lead-off, (15-of-39 .384)

That's only 39 of 237 post all-star AB's, so I imagine Stark didn't count less than 20% of AB's as a "lead-off hitter".

Plus, he was hitting .316 at the break.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?statsId=5406

[daedalus]

Originally posted by Alan T
I had pretty much thought they had been shopping Stewart for a year or two without any offers close to their liking. I might be incorrect on that, but everytime I turned I used to hear Stewart rumors and always assumed where there was smoke, there's fire. If that is indeed the case, I believe they might have felt this was going to be the best deal they would get due to the lack of any other interest.

Yeah, it seemed (to me) like Stewart was on the trading block for the last few years. The urgency this year probably had to do with the fact that he could walk.

Originally posted by Hammer755
It's still too early to tell who got the better of this deal. If the Twins get knocked out of the playoffs early then Stewart, as anticipates, bolts Minnesota for a big contract, and if Kielty turns out to be a solid major league player, as many believe he will, than the balance swings to the Jays.

Depends on what Ryan does with his draft picks, that may actually not be so bad. If he waste his draft picks like the Dodgers, then it's a waste (*sigh*). If he snags useful players like Oakland does, then swapping Kielty (an extra piece) for 2 high picks isn't a bad trade.

[daedalus]

Originally posted by Ksyrup
So it seems to me that Stewart was a part of a larger picture. Sure, I'll give him some credit for "veteran leadership," but I don't think he's such a big impact player that he is responsible for the improvement nearly every other guy in the lineup has shown.

Even beyond "veteran leadership", I wonder how much of it was just the fact that there was fresh blood around. That feeling of "somebody (in management) cares!". I've always believe that has a lot to do with why Oakland keeps making second half runs and Seattle tends to slide just a little.

[QuikSand]

Good thread.

[ISiddiqui]

It's still too early to tell who got the better of this deal. If the Twins get knocked out of the playoffs early then Stewart, as anticipates, bolts Minnesota for a big contract, and if Kielty turns out to be a solid major league player, as many believe he will, than the balance swings to the Jays.

Even if the Twinkies get knocked out early, the mere fact that they MADE the playoffs after where they were when the made the deal, makes the deal worth it for this year around.

[Ksyrup]

Originally posted by daedalus
Even beyond "veteran leadership", I wonder how much of it was just the fact that there was fresh blood around. That feeling of "somebody (in management) cares!". I've always believe that has a lot to do with why Oakland keeps making second half runs and Seattle tends to slide just a little.

I guess. I mean, you can always look back and say, "That move obviously worked," or "That move didn't." And of course, if it worked, then there must have been some sort of intangible that the deal itself brought to the team - leadership, energy, excitement, etc.

However, my guess is that the energy created by the initial trade and the success that followed, fed off of itself to create even more energy and excitement. That initial burst of energy might have sustained the Twins for a while, but if the pitching hadn't turned around and the hitters hadn't picked up their production, in hindsight there wouldn't have been talk of his leadership and his bringing something extra to the team, when in reality, they team might have lost in spite of his efforts.

I'm willing to incorporate an "intangibles factor" into my analysis, but sometimes I think it is over-estimated.

[Ksyrup]

Fresh from Rob Neyer's most recent column:


Why is everybody making such a big deal over Shannon Stewart?
Prosecution: After all, the Twins now have a six-game lead, and there's just no way that Stewart's made the difference between the Twins being in first place and second.

Defense: The Twins took off immediately after Stewart arrived from Toronto, and he brought a whole new dimension to the club.

Prosecution: (Snort) Which dimension is that? Defense? Stewart is not generally regarded as a particularly accomplished outfielder. Speed? Since joining the Twins, Stewart has totaled exactly three stolen bases and zero triples.

Defense: If it pleases the court, let the record show that the prosecution puts virtually no stock at all in things like "momentum" and "chemistry."

Prosecution: Granted. But let the record also show that the defense is suffering a classic case of Fundamental Attribution Error. The Twins started playing well after Stewart arrived, so of course he must be the reason.

Except he's not. Stewart's been solid, but he addressed a non-existent need. What the Twins needed was to pitch better ... and that's what they've done. Look at what three of their starters have done before and since the All-Star break:


Before Since
J. Santana 4-2, 3.00 8-1, 3.32
Brad Radke 5-9, 5.49 9-1, 3.32
K. Rogers 7-5, 4.89 6-3, 4.15


Kenny Rogers has pitched better, Radke's pitched a lot better, and the Twins finally figured out that Johan Santana belongs in the rotation rather than the bullpen. The Twins had a 4.74 ERA before the All-Star break, and they have a 3.89 ERA since. So with all due respect to the defense, if he really thinks that Stewart has made the difference, then he lacks a Fundamental Understanding of Baseball.

[lynchjm24]

While Stewart has played well, Minnesota has the most talent in the division and should have won the division with or without Stewart.

[mckerney]

Originally posted by Hammer755
It's still too early to tell who got the better of this deal. If the Twins get knocked out of the playoffs early then Stewart, as anticipates, bolts Minnesota for a big contract, and if Kielty turns out to be a solid major league player, as many believe he will, than the balance swings to the Jays.

I don't agree. This may usually be the case, but the Twins already had plenty of young guy in right field. Mike Ryan, Dustin Mohr, Micheal Restovich, Lew Ford, and Michael Cuddyer, all of similar tallent or better than Kielty, This made Kielty expendable, so even if Stewart does leave after one season it's worth it as they gave up someone who probably wouldn't play much anyway.

[bbor]

I think Stewart made the Twins better by just allowing them to move Jones down in the line-up and out of the lead off spot where he was'nt suited for or extremely happy about hitting there.

[oykib]

This reminds of how for years everyone called Bill Polian King Midas for what he was able to do with the Colts. But he traded Marshall Faulk for a 3rd and 5th round pick, IIRC. This is a guy that should have been MVP three times following the trade.

The fact that they drafted Edgerrin James, who may have been the best back in the conference, with their first-rounnder that year has nothing to do with the god-awful Faulk trade.

This is similar in that, Kielty and Stewart are similar players, with Stewart having been somewhat better. But he's only signed for this year. So the Jays went to the Twins and turned Stewart into a cheap Stewart that they have locked in at a cheap salary for years.

Stewart has not put RIckey Henderson leadoff numbers since joining the Twins. He hasn't even put up Kenny Lofton numbers. A .380 OBP is very good. But Jorge Posada is above .400 whil batting well below .300 to put it in perspective. We're not talking about an MVP, push-the-team-over-the-top type player.

I think the Jays clearly look like they'll win this trade going away. The only way they don't is if Kielty falls off the face of the Earth.

Couldn't the Twins have turned Kielty into Brian Giles or Richie Sexson or something. There are just too many teams that crave young cheap talent to only convert a player like that into a rental of a somewhat above average to good outfielder.

[Hammer755]

Originally posted by mckerney
I don't agree. This may usually be the case, but the Twins already had plenty of young guy in right field. Mike Ryan, Dustin Mohr, Micheal Restovich, Lew Ford, and Michael Cuddyer, all of similar tallent or better than Kielty, This made Kielty expendable, so even if Stewart does leave after one season it's worth it as they gave up someone who probably wouldn't play much anyway.

I would agree with this analysis wholeheartedly... except that that got another outfielder in return. So basically the Twins gave away Kielty for 1/2 of a season of an older, more expensive, and more productive Stewart just because they had a glut of young outfielders.

Oykib addressed the point much better than I can. I agree 100% with what he just said.

[Travis]

On a side note, bet J.P. wishes he had plucked Gagne from the Dodgers instead of Prokopec.

And as far as this deal, it's not even a given that Kielty is going to be in a better outfield situation in Toronto than he was in Minny. We still have Vernon who will be our CF (hopefully) for years to come, Catalanotto, Reed Johnson (who should become our everyday LF), Kielty, Dwayne Wise (who should be our starting RF next year if he can handle big league pitching), Jayson Werth, Alexis Rios (5 years younger than Kielty, won't threaten for a big league spot for at least 2 years), and you never know when they'll decide that with our glut of catchers if they'll try one in the outfield (ala pre 1B Delgado), especially if we keep Carlos.

Next year will be Kielty's best chance to earn a somewhat starting roll in the outfield, but the best I can see him getting is a platoon job with Frank and Reed as those 3 rotate between the 2 corner spots, or a straightup platoon with Wise in RF. My guess is he's traded before the end of next season in a package deal for some pitching (or we could just resign Escobar, learn from our mistake and keep him in the rotation instead of the pen), but this was an odd move for the Jays imho, and if the Twins make the playoffs, I think it was a great move for them because it achieved their 'now' goal without sacrificing much in the way of youth (as was stated about their glut of youth in the OF, which I had the pleasure of watching in AAA the last couple of years in Edmonton).

Edit: Yes, I know this free's them up to trade one of the current OF's, and I could see them shipping Frank out of town, but Kielty will be the more attractive player to other GM's, and even if Frank is dealt (please don't deal Reed!), that still leaves us with 3 OF's vying for 2 spots, and Wise is worth at least platooning in RF.