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09-23-2003, 01:38 PM
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#1 | ||
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Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Maassluis, Zuid-Holland, Netherlands
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OT - NFL Power Rankings, does this look realistic?
For the purpose of getting a good feel on how good the NFL teams perform, I decided to create my own power rankings.
No gut feelings, only black-on-white stats. I wanted to have both offensive and defensive rankings that can be joined to form team rankings. Not giving away the formula and the variables of the rankings, I came up with the following rankings: TR OR DR Team _1__1__8_Buf_Bills _2__6__5_Sea_Seahawks _3__7__4_Mia_Dolphins _4__2_13_Den_Broncos _5_17__1_TB_Buccaneers _6__8_11_SL_Rams _7__5_15_KC_Chiefs _8__3_18_Pit_Steelers _9_28__2_Cle_Browns 10_16__6_NY_Giants 11_11_14_Min_Vikings 12_27__3_Ind_Colts 13_14_12_Bal_Ravens 14_18_10_GB_Packers 15_22__7_Car_Panthers 16_12_19_Ten_Titans 17_10_26_Was_Redskins 18_20_16_SD_Chargers 19_30__9_NY_Jets 20__4_31_Atl_Falcons 21_25_17_NE_Patriots 22_21_20_NO_Saints 23_15_21_Oak_Raiders 24_13_24_SF_49ers 25__9_32_Jac_Jaguars 26_19_27_Ari_Cardinals 27_23_29_Hou_Texans 28_24_28_Det_Lions 29_26_25_Phi_Eagles 30_29_23_Cin_Bengals 31_31_22_Dal_Cowboys 32_32_30_Chi_Bears TR=Team Rankings, OR=Offensive Rankings, DR=Defensive Rankings EDIT: Still messing with the fonts... Last edited by MIJB#19 : 09-23-2003 at 02:13 PM. |
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09-23-2003, 01:42 PM
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#2 |
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Pro Rookie
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Berkley, MI: The Hotbed of FOFC!
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Personally, I would think the Vikings and Patriots should be higher.
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09-23-2003, 01:45 PM
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#3 |
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Pro Rookie
Join Date: Oct 2000
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At first glance I would say it is pretty close. The Bills are too high and Kansas City is too low. And there some other teams that seem out of place (Rams High, Titans low, Jets high) but overall I wouldn't say it is too off of how I would rank them.
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09-23-2003, 01:47 PM
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#4 | |
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Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Maassluis, Zuid-Holland, Netherlands
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Quote:
But, for some reason, I can't see how the Buffalo Bills can end up on top... The thing is, all is based on formula's created before the season start, but I couldn't expect that the 3-0 Vikings would end up below the 1-2 Rams and Browns, not to mention the Bills just ahead of the Dolphins... Maybe another modifier would help, but then it seems I'm tempering with the rankings to get it to show something that more pleases the gut feeling, which was what I wanted to avoid in the first place... |
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09-23-2003, 01:49 PM
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#5 | |
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Pro Rookie
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Berkley, MI: The Hotbed of FOFC!
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Quote:
See, thats the problem with going with just the numbers, especially after only three games have been played. For example, I KNOW that the Eagles should not be rated below the Cardinals, Lions, and Texans, but I could never produce the raw numbers to back that up. |
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09-23-2003, 01:51 PM
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#6 |
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General Manager
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: The Town of Flower Mound
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Cowboys second from last? Please...
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UTEP Miners!!! I solemnly swear to never cheer for TO |
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09-23-2003, 01:59 PM
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#7 | |
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Banned
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Placerville, CA
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Quote:
Yeah... they should be dead-last. |
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09-23-2003, 02:06 PM
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#8 | |
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Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Maassluis, Zuid-Holland, Netherlands
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Quote:
Probably the season so far is too short to come up with fair rankings, but I figured that after 3 weeks of play the rankings could be close to giving a fair ranking. I have an additional modifier for the rankings ready, this would boost the rankings of the Eagles, but also those of the Bengals, Jaguars, Texans, Rams, Chargers and Ravens. It would also drop the Vikings back to around 20th place, the Buccaneers and especially the Broncos would drop fast. |
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09-23-2003, 02:10 PM
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#9 |
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Head Coach
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Maryland
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Maybe if you somehow factor in last years results (either the whole year or going back X number of games) into the equation, with those playing a diminishing role as the season goes on?
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09-23-2003, 02:10 PM
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#10 | |
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Pro Starter
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Fairfax, VA
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Quote:
Is there anyway to put them below that?  |
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09-23-2003, 02:15 PM
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#11 |
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General Manager
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: The Town of Flower Mound
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Friggin comedians....
__________________
UTEP Miners!!! I solemnly swear to never cheer for TO |
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09-23-2003, 02:19 PM
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#12 |
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Hattrick Moderator
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Fort Worthless, Tx
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The BCS should be sending you an email.
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09-23-2003, 02:23 PM
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#13 |
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College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Cinn City
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If the Eagles are better than their record, then the wins will be there and they will rise in the rankings. Three weeks is still early for rankings.
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09-23-2003, 02:30 PM
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#14 | |
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Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Maassluis, Zuid-Holland, Netherlands
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Quote:
For example, is it fair to use the Broncos' last year's performace while they have a new QB? I think it's bad enough that major injuries are not part of the rankings. I mean, it's not 100% proven, but the Falcons might have done better with Vick, the Lions might have with Stewart, the Jets with Pennington, the Jaguars with Smith, etc. Anyway, I'm glad about some ranks, but others seem stupid: - Cleveland Browns' defense ranks 2nd amongst all defenses, despite giving away the all time single game single player rushing record. Their defense helps them rank over the teams that beat them, the Colts and Ravens. - Green Bay Packers defense ranks 10th. Despite a loss to the Cardinals and a bad game against the Vikings. |
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09-23-2003, 02:46 PM
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#15 |
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College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: East Anglia
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Buffalo number 1? Just shows what kind of trouble you can get into using formulas to make your rankings.
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Molon labe |
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09-23-2003, 03:13 PM
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#16 |
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Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA
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Chiefs 7th? You better be careful or kcchief19 will be in here telling you that you don't know anything about football and comparing you to Rush.
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09-23-2003, 03:20 PM
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#17 |
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Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Maassluis, Zuid-Holland, Netherlands
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Well, the rankings are totally based on how teams perform and especially compared to their opponents other performances.
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09-23-2003, 03:34 PM
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#18 |
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Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Keene, NH
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is the bye week not factored in?
Dallas has the 2nd most yards/game in the NFL. other than that, I think the list is pretty close
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Mile High Hockey |
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09-23-2003, 03:40 PM
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#19 |
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College Starter
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Berkeley
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Its nearly impossible to do anything meaningful with stats after only 3 games... You should run this using last year's end of season numbers if you want to get a good feel for it right now. (i mean to see fi the system works, not to rate team's current ability - that is probably impossible to do accurately this eary)
Last edited by Daimyo : 09-23-2003 at 03:41 PM. |
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09-23-2003, 06:40 PM
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#20 |
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Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
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Your ratings only cover 2/3 the game. If this is the style of power ratings your doing special teams should be a factor.
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09-24-2003, 01:53 AM
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#21 | |||
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Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Maassluis, Zuid-Holland, Netherlands
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Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
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10-01-2003, 05:46 AM
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#22 |
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College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Back in Norway
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I’m still waiting for this weeks rating
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10-01-2003, 05:47 AM
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#23 |
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Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Maassluis, Zuid-Holland, Netherlands
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Well, I'm very busy at school and the rest of this day and tomorrow are booked already.
Maybe Friday... Last edited by MIJB#19 : 10-01-2003 at 07:46 AM. |
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10-01-2003, 06:22 AM
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#24 |
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Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Maassluis, Zuid-Holland, Netherlands
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Re: OT - NFL Power Rankings, does this look realistic?
Rankings after week 4:
TR_OR_DR_Team _1__2__2_Mia_Dolphins _2_18__1_TB_Buccaneers _3__1__9_Min_Vikings _4_11__3_Sea_Seahawks _5_12__4_NY_Giants _6_14__5_Ind_Colts _7__7__8_Den_Broncos _8__5_12_KC_Chiefs _9__3_16_Buf_Bills 10__8_11_SL_Rams 11_13_13_GB_Packers 12_20_10_Ten_Titans 13_29__7_Cle_Browns 14_31__6_Car_Panthers 15__6_21_Pit_Steelers 16_22_15_Cin_Bengals 17_24_14_Bal_Ravens 18_21_18_Det_Lions 19_23_20_Phi_Eagles 20_19_23_SF_49ers 21_27_19_NE_Patriots 22_10_28_Was_Redskins 23__4_30_Atl_Falcons 24_17_26_Oak_Raiders 25_15_27_SD_Chargers 26_26_22_Dal_Cowboys 27_32_17_NY_Jets 28_16_29_NO_Saints 29__9_31_Jac_Jaguars 30_25_25_Ari_Cardinals 31_28_24_Hou_Texans 32_30_32_Chi_Bears TR=Team Rankings, OR=Offensive Rankings, DR=Defensive Rankings |
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10-01-2003, 07:48 AM
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#25 |
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College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Cinn City
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Woo Hoo!
Hear the Bengal growlin Mean and ang-er-y See that Bengal prowlin Lean and hung-ar-y An offensive brute Run pass or boot And defensively their Rough! Tough! Cincinnati Bengals That's the team we're gonna cheer to vic-to-ry Touchdown Bengals Put some points upon that board and win the game for Cincinnati! |
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10-01-2003, 07:48 AM
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#26 |
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Pro Rookie
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Berkley, MI: The Hotbed of FOFC!
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Hmm, too high for the Lions, Bengals, and Browns, not high enough for the Broncos or Colts; of course, that is me being purely subjective.
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10-01-2003, 09:36 AM
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#27 |
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Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: North Carolina
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I think that the Giants are too high.
You got the Saints about right, though. The Falcons are really 4th in O and 30th in D? How is Vick's return supposed to fix that? |
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10-01-2003, 09:40 AM
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#28 |
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Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
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Not too bad, but this style of rankings seems to exclude Dante Hall from the equation in ranking the Cheifs, unless special teams is somehow factored in.
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10-01-2003, 11:36 AM
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#29 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Here
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well, just by adding your offense and defense, here's what you get, along with your rankings (I'm lazy):
_1__2__2_Mia_Dolphins 4 _3__1__9_Min_Vikings 10 _4_11__3_Sea_Seahawks 14 _7__7__8_Den_Broncos 15 _5_12__4_NY_Giants 16 _8__5_12_KC_Chiefs 17 _9__3_16_Buf_Bills 19 10__8_11_SL_Rams 19 _2_18__1_TB_Buccaneers 19 _6_14__5_Ind_Colts 19 11_13_13_GB_Packers 26 15__6_21_Pit_Steelers 27 12_20_10_Ten_Titans 30 23__4_30_Atl_Falcons 34 13_29__7_Cle_Browns 36 14_31__6_Car_Panthers 37 16_22_15_Cin_Bengals 37 17_24_14_Bal_Ravens 38 22_10_28_Was_Redskins 38 18_21_18_Det_Lions 39 29__9_31_Jac_Jaguars 40 25_15_27_SD_Chargers 42 20_19_23_SF_49ers 42 19_23_20_Phi_Eagles 43 24_17_26_Oak_Raiders 43 28_16_29_NO_Saints 45 21_27_19_NE_Patriots 46 26_26_22_Dal_Cowboys 48 27_32_17_NY_Jets 49 30_25_25_Ari_Cardinals 50 31_28_24_Hou_Texans 52 32_30_32_Chi_Bears 62 |
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10-01-2003, 11:56 AM
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#30 |
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General Manager
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: The Town of Flower Mound
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How is the Cowboys offense #26? The Cowboys are leading the league in Yards Per Game and are 14th in PPG. In what way, shape, or form does that add up to #26?
__________________
UTEP Miners!!! I solemnly swear to never cheer for TO |
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10-01-2003, 12:11 PM
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#31 |
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College Starter
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
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Jeeber,
Unless EasyMac is just looking at yards and forgetting about the bye.
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"It's a great day for hockey" - "Badger" Bob Johnson |
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10-01-2003, 12:14 PM
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#32 |
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General Manager
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: The Town of Flower Mound
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Actually, it's MIJB's rankings, but even that doesn't explain it. The Giants have had a bye week and are ranked highly, and if the bye week our defense would be ranked much higher. They're ranked 13th in YGP and 21st in PPG as of right now...
__________________
UTEP Miners!!! I solemnly swear to never cheer for TO |
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10-01-2003, 12:43 PM
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#33 | |
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Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Keene, NH
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Quote:
hey, I asked that way up above.
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Mile High Hockey |
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10-01-2003, 12:52 PM
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#34 |
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General Manager
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: The Town of Flower Mound
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Yeah, but you asked that last week and I don't think he really explained why they were ranked so badly, so I had to ask again this week...
__________________
UTEP Miners!!! I solemnly swear to never cheer for TO |
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10-02-2003, 03:27 AM
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#35 |
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Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Maassluis, Zuid-Holland, Netherlands
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It's all in the formula...
There's some critical stat the Cowboys seem to lack... EDIT: Plus, it doesn't help that the 'boys played the 'skins and 'cons... Last edited by MIJB#19 : 10-02-2003 at 03:33 AM. |
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10-02-2003, 03:31 AM
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#36 | |
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Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Maassluis, Zuid-Holland, Netherlands
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Quote:
At this point, special teams are not factored into the rankings. The rankings are based on a calculated value for each offense and defense. For the team rankings the offensive and defensive value are summed up and teams are ranked by that order. The fact that what you point out (the order of teams ranks seems to be OR+DR) is not true. Secondly, I didn't say my rankings system is perfect, I just pointed out that I picked selected stats, compared the stats to what teams should have done looking to their opponents and the difference is what teams are ranked by. I have no influence in ranking teams up or down, except in the rare case of ties (I had to break 3 or 4 for the week 4 rankings.) |
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10-02-2003, 03:44 AM
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#37 | |
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Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Maassluis, Zuid-Holland, Netherlands
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Quote:
Concerning the special teams performance of the Chiefs, I think I'll have to come up with a special teams rankings, though I'm not quite sure how... I'm also thinking about changing the input data for offense and defense. Does this count as a double dola? |
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10-02-2003, 03:54 AM
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#38 | |
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General Manager
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: The Town of Flower Mound
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Quote:
Actually, they havn't play the 'skins yet. They've played the 'iants (who are really high on your list) and the 'ets...
__________________
UTEP Miners!!! I solemnly swear to never cheer for TO |
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10-02-2003, 04:07 AM
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#39 | |
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Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Maassluis, Zuid-Holland, Netherlands
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Quote:
I guess I now classify as having enough skills to be an ESPN internet journalist... Just in case, this mistake did get into the calculations of the rankings. |
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10-03-2003, 03:32 PM
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#40 |
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College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: East Anglia
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Miami moves to number 1 without even playing. I think we just found the key to getting the Dolphins home field advantage in the playoffs. Just don't play anymore games and we'll be fine. If only they tried that last December.
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Molon labe |
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10-03-2003, 10:19 PM
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#41 | |
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Pro Starter
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Kansas City, MO
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Quote:
MIJB is OK unless he says Trent Green is overrated because the conservative media wants to see a white QB succeed. I think it's a neat idea to come up with your own power rating system. Without looking at the list too terrible in-depth, my first observation would be that the formula may be giving too much weight to stats and not enough weight to game results, specifically wins and scoring differential. Last edited by kcchief19 : 10-03-2003 at 10:38 PM. |
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10-04-2003, 02:26 PM
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#42 |
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Pro Rookie
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Berkley, MI: The Hotbed of FOFC!
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I also think one thing that may be overlooked is quality of opposition. Probably won't matter as much later in the season but it would be key to any analysis at this point I would think,
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10-06-2003, 05:48 AM
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#43 |
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Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Maassluis, Zuid-Holland, Netherlands
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This rankings system does not give advantage to teams losing big and still throwing for 400yd without scores.
This ranking is solely based on how good teams perform against their opponents compared to all other teams playing against those opponents. Dante Hall keeps on showing the flaw of this rankings system as special teams performance is not weighed in yet. The 2002 Season Rankings would have looked like the rankings below: TR_OR_DR_team _1__3__3_Phi_Eagles _2__2__8_Oak_Raiders _3_13__2_Mia_Dolphins _4_28__1_TB_Buccaneers _5__1_27_KC_Chiefs _6__9__9_Den_Broncos _7__6_20_Pit_Steelers _8_19__4_SL_Rams _9__8_18_Atl_Falcons 10_16_10_Cle_Browns 11_22__5_NY_Jets 12_21__6_NY_Giants 13__7_25_Ind_Colts 14_12_15_Jac_Jaguars 15_10_19_Ten_Titans 16_15_17_SF_49ers 17_17_13_Was_Redskins 18_11_24_GB_Packers 19__5_28_NO_Saints 20_20_16_NE_Patriots 21_18_22_Sea_Seahawks 22_25_11_Bal_Rams 23_14_26_Buf_Bills 24__4_32_Min_Vikings 25_23_23_SD_Chargers 26_30__7_Car_Panthers 27_26_14_Chi_Bears 28_31_12_Dal_Cowboys 29_24_31_Cin_Bengals 30_27_29_Ari_Cardinals 31_29_30_Det_Lions 32_32_21_Hou_Texans Last edited by MIJB#19 : 10-06-2003 at 05:51 AM. |
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10-06-2003, 11:49 AM
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#44 |
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General Manager
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: The Town of Flower Mound
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And Dallas still has the second worst offensive ranking when in real life they have the #1 ranked offense...
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UTEP Miners!!! I solemnly swear to never cheer for TO |
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10-06-2003, 11:53 AM
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#45 | |
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College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Cinn City
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Quote:
The above rankings are from 2002. |
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10-06-2003, 11:56 AM
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#46 | |
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Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
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Quote:
Just curious, how do you rank their offense #1? |
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10-06-2003, 12:19 PM
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#47 |
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General Manager
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: The Town of Flower Mound
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They have the #1 offense in the NFL based on yards per game, exactly two yards ahead of your Vikes...
Why do ranking for this year based on last year's stats? That doesn't make sense to me...
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UTEP Miners!!! I solemnly swear to never cheer for TO |
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10-06-2003, 12:21 PM
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#48 |
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Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
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All those yards and only 22.3 points per game to show for it...
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10-06-2003, 12:30 PM
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#49 | |
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College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Cinn City
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Quote:
That particular post was made to explain how his rankings work. He used last year as an example. The rest of the rankings in this thread are this year's. But the one you referenced was old. |
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10-06-2003, 12:48 PM
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#50 |
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General Manager
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: The Town of Flower Mound
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Crap. I missed that last line before tha rankings. Doh! :o
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