Blu-ray/HD-DVD format war discussion thread.......

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Looks like the decision on the Warner move to Blu-ray may already be a done deal. Pali Research (same group that broke the news on the Paramount/Dreamworks move to HD-DVD) is saying that Warner will drop all HD-DVD support and that HD-DVD will no longer be supported by major movie studios by the end of next year, if not sooner..........

http://www.alleyinsider.com/2007/12/...ood-loses.html

Pali Research's Rich Greenfield has good news for beleaguered Sony (SNE) boss Howard Stringer: His company's Blu-Ray format will win the next-gen DVD format war. The bad news for Hollywood: The existing DVD business is in permanent decline, and the next-gen format won't help anytime soon -- if ever.

Rich predicts (reg. required) that the costly format war between Sony and Toshiba/Microsoft (MSFT) will end in 2008, when Time Warner's (TWX) movie studios stop supporting the HD-DVD format, forcing NBC 's (GE) and Viacom's (VIAB) studios to fall in line. But Hollywood was counting on this format war getting resolved years ago so it could replace slowing conventional DVD sales.

Now, Rich says:

Even with a single next-gen format by mid-2008, we still believe consumer spending on DVD sales will be down about 3% in 2008 compared to 1% in 2007...With the DVD “halo” gone and digital distribution still in its infancy, studios need to make profitable movies; catalog will no longer save them (particularly, as we suspect most consumers will not be re-buying their existing catalog in next-gen DVD, soon-to-be-known, simply as Blu-ray.

[stevew]

We finally got under 300 on a BD player at work. When the major ones(sony, samsung) can get under 200, I think people will finally start converting over in droves.

Also, i would hope that the 2008 HTIB's from Sony, Samsung, et al feature Multi-disc BD changers.

[gstelmack]

$100 player, $20 disc. Then people will flock to a format.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by stevew

We finally got under 300 on a BD player at work. When the major ones(sony, samsung) can get under 200, I think people will finally start converting over in droves.

Also, i would hope that the 2008 HTIB's from Sony, Samsung, et al feature Multi-disc BD changers.

I don't know if this has come through your store yet, but there are also reports that Panasonic and a few other leading HDTV producers are planning on offering Blu-ray players as a package with their TV's. Discounts on the bundle could reach as much as $500. That could be another big sales mover.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

I forgot to mention this, but Sony already has a version of this in the works. They plan to have a standard def version of the movie on every BR disc sold. The file on that BR disc can be put onto a memory card and played on the PSP or you can use remote play and just log into your PS3 from your PSP to watch the movie. It's supposed to be available on all BR discs starting sometime next year.

How did we get here from a conversation of how a digital download "rental only" model wasn't going to go over well?

[Arles]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

I forgot to mention this, but Sony already has a version of this in the works. They plan to have a standard def version of the movie on every BR disc sold. The file on that BR disc can be put onto a memory card and played on the PSP or you can use remote play and just log into your PS3 from your PSP to watch the movie. It's supposed to be available on all BR discs starting sometime next year.

While I admire their "out-of-the-box" thinking, who would ever do that?! You'd basically have to say "Well, I have a Blu-Ray disk in my PS3 connected to my 50-inch HDTV, but I think I'll instead watch it on this nice 4-inch PSP."

[Marc Vaughan]

Originally Posted by Arles

While I admire their "out-of-the-box" thinking, who would ever do that?! You'd basically have to say "Well, I have a Blu-Ray disk in my PS3 connected to my 50-inch HDTV, but I think I'll instead watch it on this nice 4-inch PSP."

To be honest I used to do that* all the time myself.

Why you ask? - well I like action movies, manga movies and sci-fi all of which my wife hates ... plus I've 3 kids so when I do get to watch a movie I normally manage about 30 minutes before its interrupted by 'life' around me, thus I used to watch a huge amount of movies on the train either using my PSP (preferred) or my laptop.

*Admittedly with a normal TV - never had HD at home.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Arles

While I admire their "out-of-the-box" thinking, who would ever do that?! You'd basically have to say "Well, I have a Blu-Ray disk in my PS3 connected to my 50-inch HDTV, but I think I'll instead watch it on this nice 4-inch PSP."

I think it's a great idea. My family travels a lot. With a movie file available on the BR discs, I could easily transfer the movie over to my PSP and take it on the trip. It's similar to the UMD movies, except I don't have to tie myself down to only watching it on the PSP. I can watch the movie on BR at home and the PSP on the road.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by BrianD

How did we get here from a conversation of how a digital download "rental only" model wasn't going to go over well?

Part of the discussion was about how movie downloads needed to have some level of portability. While the BR disc isn't portable, an included movie file would give portability for things like family or business trips.

[Bee]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Looks like the decision on the Warner move to Blu-ray may already be a done deal. Pali Research (same group that broke the news on the Paramount/Dreamworks move to HD-DVD) is saying that Warner will drop all HD-DVD support and that HD-DVD will no longer be supported by major movie studios by the end of next year, if not sooner..........

http://www.alleyinsider.com/2007/12/...ood-loses.html

Looks like Greenfield jumped the gun.

Warner Bros. on HD DVD, Blu-ray: No changes in support for either format

Web forums were ablaze this morning because of a controversial report by Rich Greenfield of Pali Research, saying in 2008 Warner Bros. would cease support of HD DVD and become Blu-ray only. Finding this suspicious, I contacted Jim Noonan, Warner Bros. Senior Vice President and General Manager, for clarification. I received a response almost immediately and his reply is as follows:

Quote:
”Dear Mr. Lindich, We have made no decision to change our present policy which is to produce in both HD DVD and Blu-ray.”

[cartman]

Rich Greenfield has a history of this type of pronouncement. He usually makes a statement on how he wants a situation to be and takes an activist stance. He used to work for Goldman Sachs, so he acts more like a hedge fund manager than technology analyst.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Bee

Looks like Greenfield jumped the gun.

To be fair, Sony made a similar statement that there would be no price drop 3 days before they made a price drop. If Warner wanted to quell the rumors, they would have stated that they will remain neutral and have no plans of changing that stance in the coming months. That statement that you listed in the quote is little more than a non-denial denial, which has unfortunately become commonplace in most executive circles lately.

I do agree with cartman's comment that Greenfield can be agressive in his stances at times.

[Bee]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

To be fair, Sony made a similar statement that there would be no price drop 3 days before they made a price drop. If Warner wanted to quell the rumors, they would have stated that they will remain neutral and have no plans of changing that stance in the coming months. That statement that you listed in the quote is little more than a non-denial denial, which has unfortunately become commonplace in most executive circles lately.

I do agree with cartman's comment that Greenfield can be agressive in his stances at times.

Not every company lies like Sony though...

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Bee

Not every company lies like Sony though...

I guess it's easier to make a joke than respond to the topic point.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Part of the discussion was about how movie downloads needed to have some level of portability. While the BR disc isn't portable, an included movie file would give portability for things like family or business trips.

The BR disc also isn't a movie download. The BR disc is portable, but there aren't a bunch of cheap players installed in every minivan yet. There is a big difference between limited portability due to a technology not being fully mature yet and no portability due to downloads being tied to a particular machine.

My whole point was that people want ownership and the ability to take their movies with them. BR will handle that just fine (as will HD-DVD) when the players start showing up in more places.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by BrianD

The BR disc also isn't a movie download. The BR disc is portable, but there aren't a bunch of cheap players installed in every minivan yet. There is a big difference between limited portability due to a technology not being fully mature yet and no portability due to downloads being tied to a particular machine.

My whole point was that people want ownership and the ability to take their movies with them. BR will handle that just fine (as will HD-DVD) when the players start showing up in more places.

I'm totally opposed to movie downloading as a purchase in its current form. I see the BR-SD file portability situation as the best alternative until they figure out a way to implement movie download purchases without cumbersome anti-piracy software.

[cartman]

Or how about the HD-DVD dual format, where one side is HD, and the other regular DVD that will play in existing DVD players. Can't get much more portable than that. Not many minivans have SD ports in them, but plenty have DVD players.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by cartman

Or how about the HD-DVD dual format, where one side is HD, and the other regular DVD that will play in existing DVD players. Can't get much more portable than that. Not many minivans have SD ports in them, but plenty have DVD players.

I wouldn't mind that if both movies were on the same side of the disc. Dual-sided discs are a real pain in the ass as you have to avoid scratching one side or the other. If they were able to put both on the same side, that would be a better situation.

Also, when I said 'SD file', I meant standard definition file, not an actual SD card.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

I'm totally opposed to movie downloading as a purchase in its current form. I see the BR-SD file portability situation as the best alternative until they figure out a way to implement movie download purchases without cumbersome anti-piracy software.

This conversation has taken such a round-about path that I no longer know if we are agreeing or disagreeing with each other. Your points about cumbersome anti-piracy software pretty much match my points about portability since it is the anti-piracy software which prevents portability. I still maintain that a download rental model is useless without a corresponding download purchase model, but I don't think you are disagreeing with that considering the shared anti-piracy/portability concerns.

The BR-SD solution is decent, but if they are going to put a file on a disc to be put on a memory card, why not allow it to be put on a thumb-drive, or somewhere that has better cross-technology access? Or if they really wanted to be portable, they could package the BR with a standard DVD. Better yet would be to continue to work the price of the BR technology down so that BR players are cheap enough to install everywhere like current DVD players are. Really, the BR-SD solution is an interim solution which keeps everything proprietary to Sony.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by BrianD

This conversation has taken such a round-about path that I no longer know if we are agreeing or disagreeing with each other. Your points about cumbersome anti-piracy software pretty much match my points about portability since it is the anti-piracy software which prevents portability. I still maintain that a download rental model is useless without a corresponding download purchase model, but I don't think you are disagreeing with that considering the shared anti-piracy/portability concerns.

The BR-SD solution is decent, but if they are going to put a file on a disc to be put on a memory card, why not allow it to be put on a thumb-drive, or somewhere that has better cross-technology access? Or if they really wanted to be portable, they could package the BR with a standard DVD. Better yet would be to continue to work the price of the BR technology down so that BR players are cheap enough to install everywhere like current DVD players are. Really, the BR-SD solution is an interim solution which keeps everything proprietary to Sony.

I definitely agree with everything you've said here. In regards to the HD media, the only way it gets better/cheaper to the point where more innovations in regard to portability can take place is to get a single format. Until that happens, adoption of any technology in the HD movie world is going to come at a snail's pace.

[Daimyo]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

If they were able to put both on the same side, that would be a better situation.

HD-DVD actually can do this. They offer two options for dual DVD/HD-DVD. The dual sided ones you referenced as well as twin discs that have both formats on a single side. Unfortunately they retail more expensive than regular HD-DVDs and aren't available for all.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HD_DVD#...D_hybrid_discs

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Daimyo

HD-DVD actually can do this. They offer two options for dual DVD/HD-DVD. The dual sided ones you referenced as well as twin discs that have both formats on a single side. Unfortunately they retail more expensive than regular HD-DVDs and aren't available for all.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HD_DVD#...D_hybrid_discs

Obviously, the higher price is a problem. Another good reason to hurry up and get this format war over with so the prices can come down.

[Daimyo]

This is a huge week for the format war with all the Harry Potter movies coming out in both formats. Last week HD-DVD made a huge gain in the weekly numbers despite no obvious big releases so its possible all the cheap player sales are starting to have a large effect. This week we'll see if that was a fluke or a trend.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

I think it's a great idea. My family travels a lot. With a movie file available on the BR discs, I could easily transfer the movie over to my PSP and take it on the trip. It's similar to the UMD movies, except I don't have to tie myself down to only watching it on the PSP. I can watch the movie on BR at home and the PSP on the road.

I agree - the portable version on the blu-ray for transfer is a great idea. My comment was regarding the idea of remotely connecting to your blu-ray player while still in your house to watch a movie on the PSP. That seems a little far-fetched for most people. Either you would watch the blu-ray movie on your HD TV or move the UMD file to your PSP - I doubt many would remote to watch a "wireless feed" to their PS3.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Arles

I agree - the portable version on the blu-ray for transfer is a great idea. My comment was regarding the idea of remotely connecting to your blu-ray player while still in your house to watch a movie on the PSP. That seems a little far-fetched for most people. Either you would watch the blu-ray movie on your HD TV or move the UMD file to your PSP - I doubt many would remote to watch a "wireless feed" to their PS3.

Ummmmm, I think I may have jumbled my comments a bit. Remote play is where you can use your PSP to access media (movies, music, etc.) on your PS3 HDD from any wireless internet portal. So what I was saying is that I could access a movie on my PS3 if I was sitting at an airport in a different city. No need to even transfer the file to the PSP in that instance. You can just stream it directly from your PS3.

[gstelmack]

Originally Posted by cartman

Or how about the HD-DVD dual format, where one side is HD, and the other regular DVD that will play in existing DVD players. Can't get much more portable than that. Not many minivans have SD ports in them, but plenty have DVD players.

Yeah, I had forgotten about this. And at $129 for the 360 player, it looks really attractive to me right now. Except that none of the Disney/Pixar stuff is on it

[Arles]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Ummmmm, I think I may have jumbled my comments a bit. Remote play is where you can use your PSP to access media (movies, music, etc.) on your PS3 HDD from any wireless internet portal. So what I was saying is that I could access a movie on my PS3 if I was sitting at an airport in a different city. No need to even transfer the file to the PSP in that instance. You can just stream it directly from your PS3.

Ah, OK, that's a little better. I thought it was just an ad-hoc wireless remote in from the same network.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Daimyo

This is a huge week for the format war with all the Harry Potter movies coming out in both formats. Last week HD-DVD made a huge gain in the weekly numbers despite no obvious big releases so its possible all the cheap player sales are starting to have a large effect. This week we'll see if that was a fluke or a trend.

Even with the gains, Blu-ray still held a 58:42 sales margin. HD-DVD still hasn't outsold BR in any given week. The Potter movies are on both formats, so there's likely no advantage to either side there.

I think a more interesting battle will be the Bourne movie release going up against a new Disney release (High School Musical). One of the arguments has been that Disney's exclusive nature isn't that big of a deal because of the nature of their movies. Most argue that people that buy HD movie players don't do it to get Disney movies. Obviously, the Bourne movie provides an adult alternative when compared to the HS Musical movie. It will be interesting to see how those two releases fare.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Arles

Ah, OK, that's a little better. I thought it was just an ad-hoc wireless remote in from the same network.

Most PS3 games will also be available for remote play on your PSP by next year. Lair and Heavenly Sword already have remote play on the PSP available. You can log into your PS3 remotely and play a standard definition version of those games.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by gstelmack

Yeah, I had forgotten about this. And at $129 for the 360 player, it looks really attractive to me right now. Except that none of the Disney/Pixar stuff is on it

The 129 wasn't a universal price drop, it was just ToysRus trying to clear out inventory.

[rjolley]

Originally Posted by stevew

The 129 wasn't a universal price drop, it was just ToysRus trying to clear out inventory.

I think that's wrong. There was an article stating that MS was droping the price.

edit: Although this article states it's across the board, looking at xbox.com, it's still listed at $179. So maybe it is a Toys-R-Us only thing.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by rjolley

I think that's wrong. There was an article stating that MS was droping the price.

edit: Although this article states it's across the board, looking at xbox.com, it's still listed at $179. So maybe it is a Toys-R-Us only thing.

yeah, that article was probably incorrect, at least when you look at the pricing of the player at other sites. Amazon went to 129.99 that same day, but now went back up to 149.99

[Daimyo]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Even with the gains, Blu-ray still held a 58:42 sales margin. HD-DVD still hasn't outsold BR in any given week. The Potter movies are on both formats, so there's likely no advantage to either side there.

I think a more interesting battle will be the Bourne movie release going up against a new Disney release (High School Musical). One of the arguments has been that Disney's exclusive nature isn't that big of a deal because of the nature of their movies. Most argue that people that buy HD movie players don't do it to get Disney movies. Obviously, the Bourne movie provides an adult alternative when compared to the HS Musical movie. It will be interesting to see how those two releases fare.

Sure, HD-DVD still trails, but they've been moving hardware much faster over the last few weeks and their huge lead in dedicated hardware eventually needs to translate into movie sales or they will fail. The interesting thing about them pulling to 58:42 is that it wasn't powered by a single big release which may indicate that the hardware advantage is finally starting to play out with people buying from the long tail/back catalog. If that is a trend HD-DVD could steadily start making gains and it would be the first sign their mass market pricing strategy is starting to work. If it drops back to 65:35 or something like that, I'd say they're in huge trouble.

High School Musical vs Bourne doesn't really tell us anything about the format war as they're completely different movies with completely different audiences. Harry Potter is a true head-to-head match up between the two... if the HD-DVD versions outsell BR with any significance it is another indicator that the large hardware base is starting to make a difference. There has only really been one other big head-to-head disc this big, 300, and those numbers are worthless since its a throw-in for HD-DVD.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Daimyo

Sure, HD-DVD still trails, but they've been moving hardware much faster over the last few weeks and their huge lead in dedicated hardware eventually needs to translate into movie sales or they will fail. The interesting thing about them pulling to 58:42 is that it wasn't powered by a single big release which may indicate that the hardware advantage is finally starting to play out with people buying from the long tail/back catalog. If that is a trend HD-DVD could steadily start making gains and it would be the first sign their mass market pricing strategy is starting to work. If it drops back to 65:35 or something like that, I'd say they're in huge trouble.

High School Musical vs Bourne doesn't really tell us anything about the format war as they're completely different movies with completely different audiences. Harry Potter is a true head-to-head match up between the two... if the HD-DVD versions outsell BR with any significance it is another indicator that the large hardware base is starting to make a difference. There has only really been one other big head-to-head disc this big, 300, and those numbers are worthless since its a throw-in for HD-DVD.

I think you missed my point a bit. My point was that, if the critics of BR are correct about Disney, HS Musical shouldn't sell well compared to some of the other big hits that have been released. If it does well, it flies in the face of the arguments against Disney having any power as an exclusive studio for BR.

[Daimyo]

Sure... there are really three factors at this point:

1. Does either side have a studio advantage anymore? Blu Ray used to have a nice advantage, but now most analysts see studio support as even for each side.
2. How does the PS3 affect BR? Almost everyone agrees that each PS3 sold is worth less in terms of movie sales compared to a dedicated player, but how much less? How many of them just want a video game console and consider the HD support a cheap bonus?
3. How will the cheap HD-DVD players affect HD-DVD sales? Almost everyone agrees that people buying cheap HD-DVD players will buy less media than early adopters, but how much less? How many of them just want cheap upscaling DVD players and consider the HD support a cheap bonus?

I guess HSM vs Bourne gives some info about #1, but I'd argue that there is already plenty of info already regarding that and this week isn't unusual in that sense. As for #2 and #3 we haven't really had any good way to get info on them... IMO, Harry Potter is the first chance to get some info regarding that.

[Fidatelo]

Does anyone else find it ironic that MBBF is arguing against the exact same kinds of arguments he argues for in the console thread? In this thread he's all "BR has a 58:42 ratio, they are clearly the front runners and will win this war", and in the console thread he's all "PS3 has made huge gains in recent weeks and will overtake 360 by the end of 2009".

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Daimyo

Sure, HD-DVD still trails, but they've been moving hardware much faster over the last few weeks and their huge lead in dedicated hardware eventually needs to translate into movie sales or they will fail. The interesting thing about them pulling to 58:42 is that it wasn't powered by a single big release which may indicate that the hardware advantage is finally starting to play out with people buying from the long tail/back catalog. If that is a trend HD-DVD could steadily start making gains and it would be the first sign their mass market pricing strategy is starting to work. If it drops back to 65:35 or something like that, I'd say they're in huge trouble.

Harry Potter is a true head-to-head match up between the two... if the HD-DVD versions outsell BR with any significance it is another indicator that the large hardware base is starting to make a difference. There has only really been one other big head-to-head disc this big, 300, and those numbers are worthless since its a throw-in for HD-DVD.

Here's the numbers from the week ending December 9th. It's obviously a big week with Warner currently considering an exclusive deal and the Harry Potter movies coming out this week:

Week: 76% Blu-ray/24% HD-DVD
Year to date: 65% Blu-ray/35% HD-DVD
Since Inception: 62% Blu-ray/38% HD-DVD

[Daimyo]

That's no surprise as Pirates released last week.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Daimyo

That's no surprise as Pirates released last week.

Superbad was also BR exclusive last week.

[Daimyo]

Wanna bet which one sold more?

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Daimyo

Wanna bet which one sold more?

I know that Pirates: AWE sold between 160-180K. I'm guessing that was the clear winner.

To some extent, this does illustrate the problem for HD-DVD at this point. With more studios being BR exclusive, there's going to inherently be more big movies on BR than HD-DVD. If HD-DVD can snag Warner, then they neutralize that issue. If Warner goes to BR, most agree that the format war will come to an end in mid to late 2008.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Toshiba is telling investors that they expect to report a 40B yen ($350 million) loss on the HD-DVD segment of their company for the current Oct-Dec 07 quarter. Price slashing on HD-DVD players and heavy marketing competition by Blu-ray supporters are cited as the main culprit.

[Bee]

Link provided just for MBBF because I want to be his friend.

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/new...ticle_ID=11716

A new study says 43% of shoppers looking to buy a high-def DVD player are leaning toward HD DVD, compared to 27% for Blu-ray. The remaining 30% are undecided. The study claims price — not technology — is the determining factor for post-early adopters of high-def packaged media.

I found it a little surprising. I expected Blu-ray would be leading, althought the 30% undecided seems reasonable. Of course, as with most of these studies and analysis posted, I tend to take it with a big huge grain of salt.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Bee

Link provided just for MBBF because I want to be his friend.

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/new...ticle_ID=11716



I found it a little surprising. I expected Blu-ray would be leading, althought the 30% undecided seems reasonable. Of course, as with most of these studies and analysis posted, I tend to take it with a big huge grain of salt.

Price is always the number one thing in consumers mind over technology when consumers are given the choice between two similar products.

More than 20 years after the original format war they seem to think the best technology is guaranteed to win.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Bee

Link provided just for MBBF because I want to be his friend.

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/new...ticle_ID=11716

I found it a little surprising. I expected Blu-ray would be leading, althought the 30% undecided seems reasonable. Of course, as with most of these studies and analysis posted, I tend to take it with a big huge grain of salt.

The problem with that survey is obviously that it takes into account only the stand-alone player market. The installed base of stand-alone players tends to mirror those percentages you cited, so I don't doubt them by any means. The obvious problem is that it doesn't address the couple million PS3's currently in U.S. homes. Given that the BR format has a substantial movie sales lead despite being behind in stand-alone players, the installed PS3 base is obviously having a tipping effect on the movie sales that surveys like the one you cited don't take into account.

Thanks for the link.

[Bee]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

The problem with that survey is obviously that it takes into account only the stand-alone player market. The installed base of stand-alone players tends to mirror those percentages you cited, so I don't doubt them by any means. The obvious problem is that it doesn't address the couple million PS3's currently in U.S. homes. Given that the BR format has a substantial movie sales lead despite being behind in stand-alone players, the installed PS3 base is obviously having a tipping effect on the movie sales that surveys like the one you cited don't take into account.

Thanks for the link.

I think you are missing the point of the survey. It's not about who is selling the most discs or even predicting who will win the format war, it's about which way new consumers are leaning when buying HDTVs and players. There's no doubt that PS3's are influencing media sales, but even though more blu-ray discs are selling, consumers still favor HD-DVDs when buying equipment (according to this survey). What I find interesting about the survey is that despite blu-ray media outselling HD-DVDs, it still hasn't started transitioning to consumer sales of players. If you are right in your predictions over the last year or so that blu-ray is on the verge of winning the format war, I would have thought we'd see consumers starting to move away from HD-DVD by now. Why support a losing format? This survey seems to indicate that shift has not happening yet. What this survey indicates to me is the format war isn't close to being over. Despite the BR lead in media sales, the typical consumer is still looking at price to make their purchasing decision. I'm actually a little surprised by the survey because I would have thought that the BR success so far in media sales would have led to more equipment sales by now.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Bee

Despite the BR lead in media sales, the typical consumer is still looking at price to make their purchasing decision. I'm actually a little surprised by the survey because I would have thought that the BR success so far in media sales would have led to more equipment sales by now.

But once again, you can't measure equipment sales by just stand-alone players. The PS3 is actually regarded as one of the best BR players on the market, especially in the sub-$1000 category. People do actually buy the PS3 for just the BR player.

As far as the movie studios go, they could generally care less about the installed base of a given HD media player. They don't make a dime off those sales. They make money when movies sell. Right now, BR is providing better sales numbers than HD-DVD. That's what they'll look at in the end when making business decisions.

[BrianD]

It seems to me that this situation is pretty much the opposite of the PS3/360 situation. There, the 360 has a greater install base and more games sold, but new customers are leaning more in the PS3 direction than the 360 direction. (according to the "PS3 will catch 360" discussions)

For movies, BR has a bigger install base and more movies sold, but new customers are leaning more in the HD-DVD direction than the BR direction. Wouldn't the same argument be used to suggest that HD-DVD will catch BR...based on current exclusivity deals?

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by BrianD

It seems to me that this situation is pretty much the opposite of the PS3/360 situation. There, the 360 has a greater install base and more games sold, but new customers are leaning more in the PS3 direction than the 360 direction. (according to the "PS3 will catch 360" discussions)

For movies, BR has a bigger install base and more movies sold, but new customers are leaning more in the HD-DVD direction than the BR direction. Wouldn't the same argument be used to suggest that HD-DVD will catch BR...based on current exclusivity deals?

The only place things are leaning toward HD-DVD is in the survey that Bee cited. BR installed base now is over 3 million with HD-DVD around 1 million. BR movies continue to outsell HD-DVD movies at a 2:1 margin (has been steadily increasing) with HD-DVD not having won a single sales week all year. Movie sales margins overseas are 3:1 in Europe and 10:1 in Japan.

At least in the 'PS3 catchup' scenario, there's sales numbers over the past 2 months to show that trend. With HD-DVD, we don't have any data showing that the installed base is catching up on a consistant basis. The only catchup that HD-DVD has done is the two clearance sales that were run. You can't stay in this kind of race running clearance sales on a regular basis.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

The only place things are leaning toward HD-DVD is in the survey that Bee cited. BR installed base now is over 3 million with HD-DVD around 1 million. BR movies continue to outsell HD-DVD movies at a 2:1 margin (has been steadily increasing) with HD-DVD not having won a single sales week all year. Movie sales margins overseas are 3:1 in Europe and 10:1 in Japan.

At least in the 'PS3 catchup' scenario, there's sales numbers over the past 2 months to show that trend. With HD-DVD, we don't have any data showing that the installed base is catching up on a consistant basis. The only catchup that HD-DVD has done is the two clearance sales that were run. You can't stay in this kind of race running clearance sales on a regular basis.

I agree with what you said, I just find it interesting that new shoppers are leaning in a direction away from the current installed leaders. Whether this means that future sales will trend in the opposite direction as past sales remains to be seen. I wouldn't use this one poll to say that HD-DVD is going to end up winning the war, but it does make me wonder why new shoppers aren't thinking along the lines of the current trends.

On the PS3/360 side, there would have been a point in time where the PS3 wasn't showing increased sales numbers yet the new shoppers were starting to lean in that direction. I don't mean to fully equate the two situations, but I do still wonder why the polling results (for that one poll) are they way they are.